2008 Election Results Analysis

December 5th, 2008 at 2:36 pm by David Farrar

As there won’t be many posts over the weekend, due to my temporary location of Great Barrier Island, I’ve uploaded for the serious politics geeks my 41 page analysis of the election results by electorate and region, including changes from 2005. Hopefully keep you a bit busy during the drought :-)

2008-final-election-results

The file is around 3 MB and in MS Word. Almost every piece of data you can want is in there. I have not yet added on the split voting statistics though.

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14 Responses to “2008 Election Results Analysis”

  1. stephen (4,063 comments) says:

    41 pages huh. I know you must’ve loved Labour being booted out, but the collosal amount of stats that became available must’ve come a painfully close second in the benefits to be had…

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  2. Glutaemus Maximus (2,207 comments) says:

    David, have a lovely time on GBI.

    Please have a good rest, and for the record this reader will not be delving into the square root and cubic capacity of a jar of pickles.

    Just happy that we got the top off, and got the pickle out.

    Labour First: An collaboration of egregious, self righteous, self absorbed has beens.

    They are so gone, and out of it.

    The shredders won’t be able to hide the rest of the big whoppers.

    A few other huge scandals will break, and given Goff’s latent Bull Shit about handing over a flourishing economy. Great motivation for the New Order to kick them in the knackers repeatedly. So much so, that they will never pollute the political scene here again.

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  3. glubbster (344 comments) says:

    So which electorate did the best overall for National in relative terms (compared with 05)?
    Here is a contender: Chch Central.
    On the following grounds:

    3rd highest absolute party vote change from 2005-2008.

    Highest relative party vote change of general electorates from 2005-2008 (after Maori seats taken out).

    2nd highest absolute electorate vote change from 2005-2008.

    Highest relative electorate vote change from 2005-2008.

    Highest electorate vote relative to party vote for a seat National did not win.

    3rd closest electorate losing margin from one of the biggest losing margins in 2005.

    5th most marginal general electorate in the country.

    Second biggest Labour party vote loss from 05-08.

    8th biggest Labour party electorate vote loss from 05-08.

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  4. glubbster (344 comments) says:

    By the way thanks DPF, fantastic analysis.

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  5. Frank (320 comments) says:

    If the $2.5 Billion deficit in the ACC Accounts had been anounced prior to the Election, Labour’s representation would have been even smaller. Suppressing the negative position of ACC Accounts was a criminal act.

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  6. AG (1,827 comments) says:

    Yes – kudos to you, David … meticulous as always.

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  7. Madeleine (230 comments) says:

    Amazing work David. You really love your stats!

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  8. mickysavage (786 comments) says:

    DPF

    Impressive piece of work.

    How did you compare the 2008 figures to the 2005 figures? If you did it by polling booth you are presuming that everyone votes in their closest booth which I think is no longer the case. If not how much trust can we put in the figures? I accept the statistical analysis but I wonder about its relationship to what happened on the day.

    [DPF: The 2005 data is based on assumptions such as people voting at their closest booth. And only around 80% actually do so. But given the choice between no comparative data and some imperfect comparative data, I go for the imperfect. There's no real choice so long as boundaries keep changing.]

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  9. gingercrush (153 comments) says:

    Excellent job. Well done.

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  10. adam2314 (377 comments) says:

    Give my regards to Johny Blackwell..

    It has been to long..

    A magnificent retreat..

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  11. Lost_this_Election (890 comments) says:

    David – Thanks for the excellent analysis. I am going through that page by page and having a good fun at the expense of the corrupt Labour. I think the turning point of the election campaign was the day when you exposed the Greenie scumbag who secretly taped the conversation with National leaders. I think on that particular day, the scumbag would have published John Key’s tape to TV3 and as usual they would have made a huge story out of nothing. That could have cost National few critical points. I just cannot thank you enough for stopping that. Have a good break and hopefully the poor Nats will clean up the mess left behind by the corrupt Labour regime. Wish you a merry Christmas and a Happy new year. 2009 will be a defining year for John Key. If he does well to steer NZ through this economic mess – He will win 3 terms for sure.

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  12. Put it away (2,878 comments) says:

    Check out this feeble claim by The Standard based on the metadata of this document. 2nd silliest mudslinging attempt in recent times…
    http://www.thestandard.org.nz/farrar-back-on-the-ps-payroll/

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  13. Tauhei Notts (1,712 comments) says:

    Great analysis. Thank you.
    Mike Moore in the Herald (6th Dec) commented on Labour’s loss. He had, like I did, noticed the big changes anongst the westies in New Lynn etc. Also, notice that if you fail to promise them a free feed of greasy chicken, the layabouts of South Auckland will not get off their big fat arses to vote Labour. Those voter turn out figures for Manurewa, Mangere and others were revealing.

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  14. Neil (586 comments) says:

    That was a great effort. I relish the opportunity to look at election data and then the interpretations.
    A comment – what figure of current majority would be safe for National if the usual afterglow wears off. I think that any National MP with an electorate majority of 6000 or less should still keep his/her cv updated.
    Still like to see work done on special votes,absentee ballots and overseas voting trends.

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