Labour’s problem with Mt Albert
Helen doesn’t want to spend the next three years as a backbench Opposition MP. And Phil Goff doesn’t want her to overshadow him. So normally we would expect to see a by-election in Mt Albert next year.
But it is proving rather difficult for Labour. You see Michael Cullen, being a List MP, will probably resign from Parliament in early 2009. This will bring in No 37 on the Labour List, Damien O’Connor. Now some in Labour probably think Damien should give way to new blood, but they’ll tolerate him returning.
Then we have Helen resigning, which will trigger a by-election. Labour will need to select a candidate for this seat, and let there be no mistake – Helen will pick the candidate. And who is favoured to get her blessing – List MP Phil Twyford. Twyford is highly regarded.
But here is the problem, Twyford is already an MP. So what happens if he wins the Mt Albert by-election? Well he would then resign his seat as a List MP, and that would bring in the next person on the Labour list. And who is No 38? It’s Judith Tizard!
Now Helen has won Mt Albert with some big majorities, but a lot of that has been personal. The party vote has been much closer. And if Mt Albert voters works out that voting for Twyford means Tizard returns to Parliament, then the seat could fall to a good National candidate. I can imagine a lot of money would be spent pointing out the nightmare scenario.
Now some might say, it’s easy. Just get Judith to agree to stand aside. After all, she probably doesn’t want to be back there by herself.
But who is next on the list. Well the next four candidates are Mark Burton, Mahara Okeroa, Martin Gallagher and Dave Hereora. The four stooges without the humour. Persuading Mt Albert residents to vote for any of those to return to Parliament could be a challenge.
So who is next in place 43? Louisa Wall. Now I think Louisa was a talented MP and would be a boon to Labour’s ranks. But she is seriously unpopular with many of her colleagues who don’t want her back. So who is next at 44? Lesley Soper – she would attract more shoe throwing in a Labour Caucus meeting than George W Bush attracts in Iraq.
Spots 45 to 49 are all vacant as they won their electorate seats. Finally in spot 50 you have Hamish McCracken. Well at least he is an Aucklander. However having been given three unwinnable seats and rankings in a row, he is hardly in high favour.
So you see the problem for Labour. Either Helen has to stay on for the full term, or someone other than Twyford is the candidate, or they risk the public working out voting for Labour will bring a plonker back in on the list and losing your predecessor’s seat in a byelection would see Goff rolled.
So I am picking Helen won’t be going anywhere until they work out a way around their dilemna.
December 16th, 2008 at 12:23 pm
The Unions who are the Labours Natural bosses will arrange for Little to take the seat. Why become the President when you go to Parliament?
December 16th, 2008 at 12:24 pm
And there is the other dilemma. What international post could Helen Clark fill? And would John Key and the new government assist her with getting that international role? Hmmmm…
This will be the longest three years of Helen Clark’s life! Say it how Slippery Steve Maharey would… THREE LONG YEARS!!!
December 16th, 2008 at 12:28 pm
That all assumes that Cullen will go before Clark though. Also, Tizard hasnt been well so may not come back in anycase having been out of the place for a while.
Straight Shooter – are you questioning John Key’s word? He has already said his government will support Clark if she goes for an international role. Why do you doubt him?
December 16th, 2008 at 12:29 pm
Why not just get Helen to frick off before Cullen? That way she can pick Twyford, Damian comes in as next on the list, Labour generally happy, and no need to fight off the potential nightmare scenarios that National would have thrown up? Seems like a no-brainer to me.
[DPF: It is one solution, but Helen needs to find a job before she resigns]
December 16th, 2008 at 12:31 pm
Make like the Democrats in the U.S. and just sell it to the highest bidder
December 16th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
“Labour will need to select a candidate for this seat, and let there be no mistake – Helen will pick the candidate.”
Pardon me for being a bit slow, but… what is the background for believing this?
Oh and another thing – you assume in all of this that the general voting public in Mt Albert will share your distaste for Tizard, and that seems like a bit of an assumption IMHO…
[DPF: If you don't know how Labour Party selections work, no time to educate you. And if you think there is any chance that in Mt Albert of all places, the preferred candidate would not win, then there is a bridge for sale.
As for Tizard I don't personally have a distaste for her. My interactions with Judith have always been cordial and professional. But her reputation in Auckland is very negative - as Metro has revealed]
December 16th, 2008 at 12:51 pm
ratbaiter… your side has lost the ability to use the force.. your judgement is clouded…
no one likes tizard. being a leftist, i suspect she doesnt even like herself.
December 16th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
Put it away, they may not get any bids, let alone meet the reserve. Remember the market is down at the moment.
December 16th, 2008 at 12:58 pm
“Finally in spot 50 you have Hamish McCracken. Well at least he is an Aucklander. However having been given three unwinnable seats and rankings in a row, he is hardly in high favour.”
To be fair, McCracken didn’t get unwinnable seats. He made them.
December 16th, 2008 at 1:01 pm
Adolf, how’s your iPrediction on this one, then?
December 16th, 2008 at 1:02 pm
Ratbiter … If you think that Helen’s handprints won’t be all over her successor then you probably think that Winston Peters didn’t know f**k all about the $100,000.
December 16th, 2008 at 1:04 pm
Ross Miller – again, WHY? Actual reasons please. Something more real than “we all know what dirty old Helen and Winston were like” would help make the point…
December 16th, 2008 at 1:11 pm
Who says Cullen is going to retire before Clark. Seems like pure speculation to me. I am betting that Clark retires before Cullen and gifts the seat to Twyford. Labour are just waiting for the best time to do this. O’Connor will then replace Cullen.
December 16th, 2008 at 1:12 pm
Arsebiter, it’s called opinion. Much like your claim that you know the minds of all Mt Albert voters on Judith Tizard.
December 16th, 2008 at 1:14 pm
Sorry O’Connor for Twyford and Tizard for Cullen.
December 16th, 2008 at 1:19 pm
Surely Viking 2 is correct.
Little now runs the Liabour Party, and the others you name are of NO consequence to the longer term aspirations. He will arrange that he will be the Mt Albert member, so he can roll Goff from within whenever, after the liars lose the next election.
He will tag in with Maryann Street as deputy. She did not become President of the Liabour Party and on to Parliament to sit on her backside, without scheming with her Party “bedfellowesses!”.
December 16th, 2008 at 1:21 pm
goodgod – I claimed no such thing. (I’m not sure what you were reading…?)
December 16th, 2008 at 1:26 pm
DPF said: “Louisa Wall. Now I think Louisa was a talented MP and would be a boon to Labour’s ranks. But she is seriously unpopular with many of her colleagues who don’t want her back.”
Why is she so unpopular with her colleagues?
[DPF: I am not 100% sure. Doesn't play well with others is the general theme I hear]
December 16th, 2008 at 1:29 pm
I agree with Viking, Little is the one who will take the seat and win the by election.
What Klark wants is irrelevant however it will be the start of many years of infighting within Labour as the various factions fight to implement their long term goals.
December 16th, 2008 at 1:31 pm
Well, who made Wellington Central unwinnable for national. You exaggerate your influence if the Mt Albert voters will worry about whos who on the list
I think we can replace the term Helengrad with Byzantium if this the best they can think up in the first ‘100 days’
[DPF: I think Mt Albert voters will care, if they are informed. I think they will want to know who actually becomes an MP if they vote for a party's candidate. And as for WC, it has only been won by National once since 1981 - it has long been a red seat]
December 16th, 2008 at 1:38 pm
Karma is such a wonderful thing It couldnt happen to a nicer bunch of arseholes After all the misery they have put the good citizens thru lets see them get a dose of it back
December 16th, 2008 at 1:51 pm
Question: If there is a by-election which National wins and their candidate is not an existing MP, would National lose a list MP?
[DPF: No]
December 16th, 2008 at 2:13 pm
RedRock, me thinks National have a secret weapon! They might try the ACT Taranaki-King Country strategy and get an extra MP! Interesting!
Who could win Mount Albert for National? Obviously it would need to be someone who hates Eden Park and motorway extensions!
December 16th, 2008 at 2:20 pm
Wellington Central a red seat!!
That must explain why Richard Prebble was able to win it for ACT
December 16th, 2008 at 2:55 pm
Does it really matter who takes the seat, the choices look like either dumb or dumber. Any of the above candidates would only help National to gain a firmer grip in Auckland.
December 16th, 2008 at 3:02 pm
Just caught a glimpse of Helen Clark during Question Time, and she looked as though she had eaten a dozen sour lemons for lunch. So maybe we should just insist that things be left as they are, and she serves the full term as a backbench opposition MP with no power, no perks, and no responsibility for anything. That would indeed be karma!
December 16th, 2008 at 3:07 pm
Doubt that John Key and co would stand in the way of Helen Clark getting an international organisation job. National did support Mike Moore for the WTO job.
Actually there is an Ambassadorship about to come up for grabs, but MFAT staffers will probably drawing straws over this one (who wants to go there!)
December 16th, 2008 at 3:22 pm
Actually with all the muck, dodgy books, billions unaccounted for she would be ably qualified for a top ranking position at the UN.
National shouldn’t help her though, she should remain and face the music along with Cullen for their crimes against the country.
December 16th, 2008 at 3:42 pm
Judith Tizard very much annoys me. Perhaps her job in life is to piss off middle class european males, she does that quite well.
December 16th, 2008 at 3:46 pm
Bugger!!!
December 16th, 2008 at 3:54 pm
A job for Helen – easy – won’t we need a new High Commissioner to Fiji in a couple of days? I am sure Frank will welcome her with open arms. lol.
What about Fairbrother for Mount Albert? He only stood in the electorate and one big positive is it will get rid of him out of Hawkes Bay.
Seriously I think Little is the obvious contender – annointed by Helen for the Electorate and annointed by Helen foe the Labour Leadership whenever he wants to take it form Philin Goff.
December 16th, 2008 at 5:09 pm
I can see a money making opportunity here.
Bet on the Nats to win the Mount Albert bye election. Encumbent parties do not do well in bye elections, but I believe that National can win Mt Albert. The extension of National Party votes into West Auckland is incredible.
December 16th, 2008 at 5:22 pm
Hilarious.
Bring Back Tizard I say!!!
Of COURSE she wants to be back in there DPF, what makes you think she wouldn’t wish to keep suckling off the taxpayers large breasts?
December 16th, 2008 at 6:36 pm
How about a good credible Act candidate with the Nats not bothering. Good for the Nats long term.
December 16th, 2008 at 7:14 pm
As much as I want to see Kark suffer John Key would be wise to get her a nice overseas posting and out of the house as soon as possible.
While she was beaten at the last election many Kiwi’s will still see her as a possible future PM when the honeymoon period is over and the going gets a bit tougher for the Nat’s as the economic turmoil deepens.
She remains Labours biggest asset and the sole reason they polled as well as they did at the last election, get rid of her and Labour cease to be a credible opposition for at least six years, Labour will only become a force to be reckoned with when Andrew Little is the leader.
December 16th, 2008 at 8:21 pm
I am reasonbly sure that Little is waiting for either King or Mallard’s seat to be vacated, as I’m sure that he does not want to move his family from Wellington.
December 16th, 2008 at 8:23 pm
I am reasonbly sure that Little is waiting for either King or Mallard’s seat to be vacated, as I’m certain that he does not want to move his family from Wellington.
December 16th, 2008 at 9:06 pm
DPF: I see that the mischief making that is your trademark operating. Big bruv (for once ) is correct. There is no dilemma
The trademark of Helen is that she changes the ground-rules. You’re going to see that unusual sight, a ex-PM who actively relishes her role of being the ex-PM. She will create mischief – there are lots of suitable targets on the other side. Helen is very effective in opposition. She is going to enjoy herself. There are new MP’s to mentor. NACT select committee chair people who will have issues in their select committees.
As for Mt Albert, Helen will decide when she wants to stand down (if she does), and the Mt Albert LEC including her will make the choice of sucessor. We’re very cohesive, quite effective, and don’t tolerate shit from anyone – shows in the results.
Anyway, how long do you think it will be before Helen starts concentrating on dissecting JK?
[DPF: Actually the LEC does not choose the successor, as you know. The selection panel does. But in this case the LEC I am sure will have far more influence than normal.
If Helen was up to dissecting JK, it would have made more sense for her to do so before the election,not afterwards I must say.]
December 16th, 2008 at 9:07 pm
My god it has just occured to me – Jordan Carter for Mt Albert!!!
December 16th, 2008 at 9:21 pm
Iprent
“Anyway, how long do you think it will be before Helen starts concentrating on dissecting JK?”
Are you serious?, she would not dare raise her head above the parapet given the way she lied to the people of NZ in the recent election campaign.
The other reason is that she knows her very future is in the hands of John Key and like any low life socialist she has no ability to make a living unless it is from the public tit.
BTW, how are you guys over at the Standard getting on without tax payer funding?
[DPF: Comments on The Standard are best made at The Standard, if within their AUP, not here]
December 16th, 2008 at 9:28 pm
“Labour’s problem with Mt Albert”
I believe you have the title of this post mixed up David, from what I understand it should read:
“Mt Albert’s problem with Labour”
Ratbiter opines thus – “Oh and another thing – you assume in all of this that the general voting public in Mt Albert will share your distaste for Tizard, and that seems like a bit of an assumption IMHO…”
Mr Biter, I think you’ll find that Tizard will be welcomed like a turd in a burning brown paper bag on ones doorstep in Mt Albert.
Jacob Van Hartog cattarhs – “You exaggerate your influence if the Mt Albert voters will worry about whos who on the list”
Mr V. Hartog and Biter seem to be placing a great deal of emphasis on the simple folk of Mt Albert merrily voting Red irrespective of the candidates at hand.
Iprent froths – “As for Mt Albert, Helen will decide when she wants to stand down (if she does)”
Perhaps Helen could spend her time serving the needs of her constituency this term. Her Prime Ministerial duties led to less than satisfactory local focus over the past decade.
December 16th, 2008 at 9:28 pm
DPF: Dissection is a lot easier from opposition than it is from the treasury benches.
December 16th, 2008 at 9:34 pm
Iprent
This free exchange of views is fun aye, what a pity you are not keen on free speech, I guess that is why you come here.
December 16th, 2008 at 10:30 pm
Wow, since reading the above comments I have noticed a prevailing silence…… from Winston Peters. What a nice feeling. Since the new Parliament opened, this is the best I have ever heard him talk and say…….. nothing.
December 17th, 2008 at 8:03 am
The post should read “Mt Albert’s problem with Labour”. HC has not been an effective local MP and parts of her electorate are slipping into 3rd world ghettos. The next MP won’t have to do much to improve on her non-performance
December 17th, 2008 at 8:05 am
You reckon Hulun hasn’t been paying much attention to her electorate gabba gabba hey?
December 17th, 2008 at 8:07 am
I heard through the grapevine you wouldn’t get a look in with ‘her people’ unless you were a refugee cause she wanted loads of UN type stuff going on in her patch.
December 17th, 2008 at 8:08 am
I see she managed the Salt family out of Mt Albert to protect her tax paying electorate. Not.
December 17th, 2008 at 8:27 am
Apart from the odd photo opp in the local schools and their galas where her fellow Uni / T-Col ugly wimmin acolytes fawn all over her, and the election year st lukes visit with party enourages she has been invisible in Mt Albert
December 17th, 2008 at 8:30 am
Really?
Maybe Hulun got mixed up with Mt Albert and Mt Eden. I mean Hulun lives in Mt Albert doesn’t she? Oh, I mean Mt Eden.
December 17th, 2008 at 11:52 am
Labour will get the seat whoever they stand. I live in it, and seriously, this is not a blue electorate. Auckland Central’s shock loss to National will not happen here – the area is not gentrified, it doesn’t contain a Ponsonby/Herne Bay equivalent. I expect the closer party vote was ‘to send a message’. The message has been sent, I doubt it will be sent again.
December 23rd, 2008 at 11:37 am
Hang on a minute, won’t Judy go with Helen overseas anyway? =)