Ohariu in 2011

January 20th, 2009 at 12:09 pm by David Farrar

The Wood Chipper has an excellent blog on what will happen to in 2011.

ohariu1

This graphic is an excellent way of showing what has happened to Peter’s vote, from the high in 2002. It has gone from attracting support from all parties, to mainly support from National voters only. Somewhat ironically, as from 2002 to 2008 Peter backed a Labour-led Government.

ohariu2

If Peter does not stand in 2011, then this graph shows pretty clearly that it should become a very safe National seat.

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8 Responses to “Ohariu in 2011”

  1. Neil (555 comments) says:

    Little doubt that Peter Dunne avoided defeat by coming out in favour of National so early. Dunne knew that he would be done for dinner so quickly altered course. I think him being in coalition with National could well see that accelerate his declining hold over the electorate.I would assume this contains much of the old Karori blue ribbon electorate of Sir John Marshall.
    The same thing will happen with Jim Anderton, however this time going to Labour.
    As time goes on the quirks of the old FPP system colliding with MMP will disappear, solidifying the National,Labour,Greens and ACT ideological structure leaving the Maori Party an exclusively ethnic group.Left and right more clearly defined.

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  2. Phil (125 comments) says:

    The current electorate runs north-north-east from Ngaio up through J’ville to Tawa, and includes a little bit of the western edge of the Hutt Valley. It’s an electorate heavily dominated by middle-class, middle-aged, civil servants.

    That it swung so heavily to National, in spite of Labours rhetoric around cuts to services and jobs, would make it an interesting bell-weather for where the red team can improve next time around.

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  3. Rex Widerstrom (5,253 comments) says:

    Poor Katrina Shanks must be gutted. If John Key had had the nous to rule out pandering to the pouffed popinjay as he did Winston, she’d be the MP for Ohariu now.

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  4. Ross Miller (1,659 comments) says:

    Rex … luv that word ‘popinjay’. Is that a jay walking pop?

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  5. Rex Widerstrom (5,253 comments) says:

    Ross: It originally meant “parrot” but morphed (in the 14th century or thereabouts, I think – Shakespeare uses it in the colloquial sense in Henry IV) into meaning someone vain, full of themselves, and talkative.

    A perfect description of our Pete, don’t you think?

    I’m tempted to stand in Ohariu (again – I did so briefly in 1996 till the Great Schism :-D ) just so I can put up posters with my slogan: “Preventing pandering to the perfidious pouffed popinjay”.

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  6. Ross Miller (1,659 comments) says:

    Rex … luv it all.

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  7. GJ (329 comments) says:

    If National does a good job this term I think you will find that Dunne will lose his seat to the National candidate at the next election.

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  8. Ari (69 comments) says:

    You know, looking back on it, had those of us on the pan-left thrown support behind Shanks instead of Chauvel, we could’ve gotten rid of Peter Dunne this time. Ah, lost opportunities. At least the man is responsive as an electorate MP, but it’s too bad he actually gets a vote. :P

    While Dunne has supported a few good initiatives, I really don’t like the idea of blown-by-the-wind MPs. The only convictions Dunne seems to have are religious ones, sadly.

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