Why is National on 60%?

February 20th, 2009 at 1:05 pm by David Farrar

It is interesting to look at analysis of why National is on 60%. Of course there is a honeymoon factor in there, but let me tell you National in Feb 1991 was not on 60%!

Steve Pierson at The Standard thinks it is because smiles a lot, and it is all because National has such a super smart PR team, that National is at 60%. I mean, hey they even turned his broken arm into a plus.

I think it is because John Key is Labour’s worst nightmare. He is a genuine unpredictable centrist. Now he is a centre-right centrist, but they can’t pigeonhole him as the typical “new right neo-liberal”.

Labour spent over a million dollars on ads last year telling NZers they can not trust John Key. It was the most personally targeted negative campaign we had seen. Why were they so desperate to have people think Key was not a centrist? Because they knew deep down he was, and that that is where elections are won.

Look at what the Gallery are saying. Tracy Watkins blogs:

It’s a new world order. But some people don’t seem to get it yet.

Trying to interpret comments by John Key about Fisher & Paykel in the context of the old arguments about Left and Right is about as useful as comparing a Toyota Camry with an ocean-going liner.

And Colin Espiner also blogs:

John Key just continues to surprise – and I imagine he’s surprising his own party and its backers as much as the public.

Generally when Roger Kerr from the dry-Right Business Roundtable starts writing articles criticising you just a few months into your first term in government, it’s because you’re a centre-Left government.

But in National’s case, it’s because they’ve got a leader and a Prime Minister who has pretty much torn up the rule book governing the political spectrum.

If Helen Clark shifted the paradigm of New Zealand politics during her nine years in power, Key seems to be intent on exploding it altogether.

Espiner also looks at how hands on Key is:

When Key caught wind that banks might be being a little stingy with their credit to businesses, he got on the blower to their chief executives and had a little chat. Imagine Helen Clark or Michael Cullen doing that?

And after Fisher and Paykel Appliances saw its share price plummet 40 percent in a single day yesterday, Key again reached for the telephone and called up chief executive John Bongard.

This is why I semi-jokingly refer to John’s Muldoonist tendencies!

Colin also notes:

Just one other example of Key’s newfound interventionist streak – the impending cricket tour of Zimbabwe by the Black Caps. Remember 2005, when the Labour government refused to intervene to stop NZ Cricket touring? It did stop the return series by declining visas for the Zimbabwe players, and I accept there were few stronger critics of the Mugabwe regime than Clark.

But Labour’s view was that to prevent the cricketers heading to Africa it would have had to revoke their passports, and that was a bridge too far.

Key doesn’t seem to have any such qualms. He pretty much said yesterday, and again on his way into caucus this morning, that the tour wouldn’t be proceeding. Asked if that meant revoking passports, he shrugged and said he was looking at all the options.

There’s a gutsy determination about him at the moment that reminds me very much of Clark in her earlier years, before she became worn down by the endless decision-making and sheer plethora of issues and controversies that enveloped her government.

I think it’s refreshing, as long as it lasts.

And this is why National is at 60%. Not because everyone loves National, but because they do love John Key. Only 4% of NZers thought he was doing a poor or weak job. That is incredibly low.

Labour and its allies need to realise they are dealing with a very different politician with John Key. He is an instinctive rather than ideological politician. Now his instincts are centre-right, but he operates by trusting his instincts and his skills to get good outcomes.

If people think National is at 60% just because John Key smiles a lot, then they are dramatically under-estimating him. Just as they did last year when they all said he would get whipped by Helen in the debates.

Now sure market purists like myself are wincing from time to time, as John does one of his interventions. But the battle for most of the public lies in the centre.

The challenge for Labour is how do they respond?

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83 Responses to “Why is National on 60%?”

  1. Ratbiter (1,265 comments) says:

    DPF’s quote from Tracey Watkins:

    “Trying to interpret comments by John Key about Fisher & Paykel in the context of the old arguments about Left and Right is about as useful as comparing a Toyota Camry with an ocean-going liner.”

    Ratbiter predicts this will fall on very deaf ears around here!

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  2. Ratbiter (1,265 comments) says:

    And the Colin Espiner quote:

    “Generally when Roger Kerr from the dry-Right Business Roundtable starts writing articles criticising you just a few months into your first term in government, it’s because you’re a centre-Left government.”

    It is a happy day indeed for Ratbiter when a sensible right-ish commentator says that essentially the new National PM should wear the criticism of market/capitalist economic theorists from the Real Right as a badge of honour!

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  3. emmess (1,428 comments) says:

    I wouldn’t describe not wanting to let the Black Caps tour Zimbabwe as interventionist (that is only regarding economics), I would describe as neo-conservative (ie not being nice to very nasty states) and that’s a good thing

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  4. dime (9,972 comments) says:

    Labour have no answer. They will wait 9 years and win be default.

    Labour need fresh blood and they need to recruit people that arent just Unionists/Teachers. They also need to weed out their far left element. Let those people join the Green party.

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  5. xy (187 comments) says:

    It’s really interesting watching all my Labour-party friends react to this. There’s still a general attitude of focusing on attacking National about everything, and a lack of introspection about what Labour needs to become.

    I was happy to see National win this election because I assumed it would result in a shaken-up, better Labour. There is nothing to suggest that that’s happening that I can see – the focus is on ‘man those stupid people were fooled by National, THEY’LL LEARN WHEN THE WORLD ENDS’.

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  6. petal (706 comments) says:

    “Now sure market purists like myself are wincing from time to time, as John does one of his interventions. But the battle for most of the public lies in the centre. The challenge for Labour is how do they respond?”

    I don’t understand why people are so surprised. It has been clear for the last 9 years that the country WANTS a Labour Government. The problem with the last three years is that they didn’t like the MANAGEMENT. So what does National do? It presents itself as a true alternative Labour replacement – and hey presto!

    But I do have to admit that the fun bit will be to see how Labour tries to redefine itself over the next 6 years or so. As long as the National management stays in touch with the people, the only answer Labour have is to wait until the voters get ‘tired’ of National.

    Collectively, we’re such idiots ;-)

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  7. Ratbiter (1,265 comments) says:

    DPF: “Now sure market purists like myself are wincing from time to time, as John does one of his interventions. But the battle for most of the public lies in the centre.”

    3x Propositions from Ratbiter; pick one:

    (1) Key is doing what he thinks will garner votes.
    (2) Key is doing what classic left/right/liberal/conservative ideologies tell him the PM should do in a time like this.
    (3) Key is doing what he believes is best for the country.

    Writing as a Labour voter turned Key fan, IMHO (3) seems more likely than (2) and far, far more likely than (1) ;-)

    The best thing about having Key in charge is that here is a guy who evidently must have a fairly good instinctive idea about how markets and money work!

    [DPF: I agree that I think it is (3) and it is useful that Key does have good instincts on what works and what doesn't. Having said that, I worry about the precedent it can set]

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  8. Zippy Gonzales (485 comments) says:

    John Key smiling too much..? Do you know how hard it is to find an image of David Cunliffe or Darren Hughes NOT smiling?? Every bloody image, constipated chipmunk and beaming ginga! What’s a mash-up artist to do?

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  9. dime (9,972 comments) says:

    HAHAHAHAHAHA nothing worse than a beaming ginga!

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  10. Rebel Heart (249 comments) says:

    National are on 60% because 60% of NZers are idiots.

    [DPF: Now we just need Phil Goff to say that]

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  11. oob (191 comments) says:

    National are on 60% because 60% of NZers are idiots.

    40% of New Zealanders are welfare recipients and habitual criminals.

    The 60% who support National think that those who can work, should. They think that crime is something bad that should be prevented and perpetrators punished.

    They know that taxing the overburdened to support the lifestyle choices of the undeserving is bad government.

    The 60% knows that Communism is a very bad idea, that the damage the Clark regime inflicted upon New Zealand in an effort to instigate a socialist revolution is going to take generations to repair.

    They know that National is New Zealand’s best chance to rebuild.

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  12. toad (3,674 comments) says:

    dime said: They also need to weed out their far left element. Let those people join the Green party.

    We don’t want them – because they are not green! Well, with perhaps the odd exception like David Parker who probably could find a home in the Green Party if he worked on it.

    Despite what’s been said on another thread here recently re Catherine Delahunty, her environmental credentials are impeccable. Most Labour MPs have none.

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  13. oob (191 comments) says:

    We don’t want them – because they are not green!

    The Greens are not an environmental Party, they’re a communist party with flowers in their hair and an aversion to personal hygiene.

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  14. Leonidas (1,431 comments) says:

    No, National is on 60% because Key answers in plain english and does not answer in the condescending tones of the former P.M.

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  15. dime (9,972 comments) says:

    Toad – if only the Greens were an environmental Party.. it would make you far less dangerous.

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  16. stephen (4,063 comments) says:

    No, National is on 60% because Key answers in plain english and does not answer in the condescending tones of the former P.M.

    Wow, being PM is a piece of cake.

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  17. toad (3,674 comments) says:

    dime said: if only the Greens were an environmental Party

    Um, wouldn’t the Greens being concerned solely with environmental matters make them a political pressure group rather than a political party? A bit like the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party, which really isn’t a political party at all. And on environmental issues there are already lots of effective political pressure groups.

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  18. Wycroft (873 comments) says:

    Are you saying all your MPs are truly green, Toad? Come on. Do a swap – your communists for their greens.

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  19. llew (1,533 comments) says:

    No, National is on 60% because Key answers in plain english and does not answer in the condescending tones of the former P.M.

    Wow, being PM is a piece of cake.

    You would think… those qualities seem to elude most of them though.

    60% because Key hasn’t scared the horses yet & he’s not Helen Clark.

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  20. goodgod (1,348 comments) says:

    National -the party or the caucus- isn’t on 60%

    Hardly anyone could recite their policies before or after the election, and not because they didn’t exist.

    “National”, as far as polling is concerned, is code for the PR surrounding National and the cult of personalilty politics that NZders love so much.

    the honeymoon period, the preferred PM “polls” – they’re all exercises in public projection and none of it is true. It’s like asking someone who’s never travelled if they like the idea of holidaying in Vanuatu or Paris.

    one thing is for sure: no PM has exited the office in the same state as they entered it.

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  21. big bruv (13,884 comments) says:

    Toad

    “We don’t want them – because they are not green! ”

    Ha ha ha, Good one Toad, I suppose the next thing you will be telling us that Delahunty, Locke, Bradford and Norman are?

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  22. Murray (8,847 comments) says:

    It was a rogue poll.

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  23. big bruv (13,884 comments) says:

    # dime (1044) Vote: Add rating 5 Subtract rating 0 Says:
    February 20th, 2009 at 1:53 pm

    Toad – if only the Greens were an environmental Party.. it would make you far less dangerous.

    And far more electable!

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  24. mike12 (183 comments) says:

    Unfortunately for labour the left is full of limp characters like Pierson who are intent on character assasination as the only way to combat Key.

    This low-life way of politics only turns decent kiwis off – eg taper-gate, mike williams snooping etc etc..

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  25. dime (9,972 comments) says:

    toad – that sounds delightful :)

    What are the prerequisites to being a Green MP?

    Socialist first, Greenie second?

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  26. big bruv (13,884 comments) says:

    Rat

    “3x Propositions from Ratbiter; pick one:

    (1) Key is doing what he thinks will garner votes.
    (2) Key is doing what classic left/right/liberal/conservative ideologies tell him the PM should do in a time like this.
    (3) Key is doing what he believes is best for the country.”

    Option 3 is the one that worries me, sure it might be popular at the moment but none of us should forget the mess we got into last time we trusted a politician who did “what he believes is best for the country”

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  27. big bruv (13,884 comments) says:

    dime

    Second?….more like ninth or tenth.

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  28. 103PapPap (131 comments) says:

    In my business experience, where I have met and worked with a great many senior executives, the winning attributes that really stand out are high intelligence along with the ‘getting things done’ ethic (as apart from the ‘gunna’ ethic (gunna do this, gunna do that), also known as ‘all talk’).
    It is very apparent to me that John has both of these attributes in spades.
    In business, these people generally develop excellent people skills, and quickly become ‘leaders of men’.
    My view is that the people of NZ recognise that we have something new and unique, regardless of ‘left’, ‘centre’ or ‘right’ labels and are supporting him. What a breath of fresh air! A decisive politician! No more calling for more and more reports, inquiries and commissions.
    It is also my view that until Labour realises that filling its ranks with unionists, teachers, lecturers and other academics is a pointless exercise, it is doomed to fill the opposition benches until John decides to move on.

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  29. Ross Miller (1,704 comments) says:

    Probably our most hapless and hopeless PM ever was the Rt Hon Sir Geoffrey Palmer … very good 2ic but when he had to front it at PM he failed to connect … his only saving grace was that he recognised that and stepped down in favour of Mike Moore and let him carry the can for Labour’s 1990 thrashing.

    Methinks there are some similarities in respect of Phil Goff. A capable Minister of Foreign Affairs (lets ignore Defence & Corrections) but once thrust into the Labour Party leadership just fails to cut the mustard.

    I thought Labour at 35% was down to its core constituency. But at 27% that core constituency is under threat and rather than transferring to Parties on the ‘Left’ …. (Greens/Progressives/Winston First) they are migrating to the Right. The trick for National will be to cement in that support. Labour really does need to take a cold hard look at itself and now that Jones has done his chips and Cunliffe is exposed as someone reduced to muttering platitudes perhaps the poster who opined that the next Labour PM is not even in Parliament yet looks like being spot on.

    Perhaps they should turn to Ratbiter or Jum or GWW or GOH or anyone ……………..

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  30. gd (2,286 comments) says:

    Its really very simple JK is projecting something we havent seen in a politican and certainly not in a leader for a very lonmg time

    And that is What you see is what you get.

    A very straight forward straight thinking straight speaking good Kiwi bloke.

    A bloke most blokes and blokesses can relate to.

    Forget the millions of he and Bronaghs wealth. he and she just dont come across that way.

    The contrast is that Clark and Mr Clark both projected in a way that wasnt main stream and that many Kiwis couldnt relate to.

    Kiwis relate by and large to people who are straight forward thats our natural character.

    Forget the old Right Left centre stuff Its sooooooooooo 20th Century Thats the old paradigm.

    The new paradigm is common sense as percieved by the majority and flakey as perceived by the majority.

    As long as JK and the Nats keep sticking to the common sense as perceived by the majority they will continue to poll 60% and above.

    And the Socialists Greens et al will be percieved as flakey by the majority.

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  31. Christopher (425 comments) says:

    One reason that National are on 60% is definitely because they like John Key. Whatever you think of his politics, he’s a likeable chap and he gets things done. Moreover, he gets them done quickly and with no fuss.

    That’s good, I like that.

    But the other reason that National is on 60% is that today’s National is a centre-left party. There’s no two ways about this. NZ was definitely getting sick of the hard, hard left represented by Labour, and so they went for the more moderate socialism of National.

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  32. Rob Salmond (246 comments) says:

    Question: “why is national on 60%?”
    Answer: National probably isn’t on 60%.

    When you have two polls come out at the same time, and one shows a result that nobody has seen in New Zealand political history while the other shows a result we have seen many times before in many different places (a government at the start of its administration getting a fair shake at it from the citizens), which are you to believe? For me, I’ll run with the poll result consistent with historical experience rather than the rewriting of the record books.

    I would take the “unprecedented situation” pill with a big old grain of salt until it gets confirmed with some other polling, and the latest poll doesn’t confirm it.

    Yes TV3’s poll has a good record. But (1) any estimation relying on random sampling can draw a funny sample from time to time, and (2) Roy Morgan’s poll has a good record, too.

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  33. Rob Salmond (246 comments) says:

    Second, as a Labour supporter I would like to encourage those of you declaring victory in 2011 at this point to keep it up, act on your convictions and analysis, and not bother campaigning. If you’ve already won, no point in wasting all that energy campaigning, right? Much better to put your energy into growing the economy. I agree with your sentiment wholeheartedly. See you in 2014.

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  34. big bruv (13,884 comments) says:

    Ross

    I agree that Labour need to reinvent themselves however the problem Labour have is that they have far to many splinter groups fighting to be at the forefront of the next revival to be an effective opposition for some time to come.

    If Klark was good at one thing it was holding all those groups together, she was very much like Rod Donald in that respect.

    It was me who said that the next Labour PM is not yet in the house but even then I think that person is going to have a devil of a job, right at this moment the Rainbow, Feminist, Union and Socialist factions inside the party are beavering away to make sure their particular agenda is front and centre of any future Labour party revival.

    I suspect the battle will be long and bloody and I also suspect that we may well see a few splinter groups move away from the party when it becomes clear that their particular agenda is not going to be the dominant one.

    Ultimately it will be the union and socialist factions that succeed but that is still some time off IMHO.

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  35. Paul Williams (878 comments) says:

    When you have two polls come out at the same time, and one shows a result that nobody has seen in New Zealand political history while the other shows a result we have seen many times before in many different places (a government at the start of its administration getting a fair shake at it from the citizens), which are you to believe? For me, I’ll run with the poll result consistent with historical experience rather than the rewriting of the record books.

    Oh and what the hell would you know Rob? Christ, you don’t even live in New Zealand. You’re just some heavily credentialised US-academic/polster. Don’t come round here with your fancy book-learn’n and sensible views. They’re not welcome! You hear?

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  36. greenfly (1,059 comments) says:

    DPF said: ” But the battle for most of the public lies in the centre” Ooooooh yes! The battle for most of the public. Populist politics, popular politician. That’s the key!

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  37. Rob Salmond (246 comments) says:

    Paul – True. I abjectly apologize for my lapse into nerd-tinged evil Yankee socialist bagmanism. How will I live with myself? – Rob

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  38. philu (13,393 comments) says:

    the reason they are on 60%..

    ..is a combination of the failures of our mainstream media to tell the people just what incredibly deep shit we are all in..

    ..that nobody is really missing labour..yet..

    ..and that lots of people are idiots/sheep..

    ..and are still believing the hype..

    ..(and eagerly soaking up the populist diversions of car-crushing/3 strikes..etc etc..)

    ..but as the realisation sinks in that john key will not save them..

    ..but will just protect his class..

    ..we can expect that popularity figure to go ‘deep south’..

    ..i know i am totally out of step here..

    ..but to my minds’ eye..

    ..key/this national government..

    ..with its’ class-focussed war-on-the-poor..and on any progress..

    ..(women don’t have the right to the same pay as men..?…we really are in ‘mad-men’ territory..eh..?

    ..wot with the boot-camps and all..?

    ..former reactionary mp…air commodore gill..will be smiling..wherever he is..)

    ..is doing all it can to ensure it will only be a one-term government..

    ..but in the short term..

    ..that is very little consolation..

    ..but this too..will pass..

    ..phil(whoar.co.nz)

    ..so dpf..your i-predict-ion on popularity rating this time next year..?

    ..and the year after that..?

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  39. Patrick Starr (3,674 comments) says:

    “why is national on 60%?”
    Personally I think Key has shown you don’t need to be smug, arrogant and deceptive to lead the country.
    The guy is displaying a refreshing element of trust and integrity – that has been lacking for a long time in politics. He is not afraid to make the odd PR gaffe, and he‘s not the most polished front man. But he’s shown he’s human and people relate to that.

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  40. dad4justice (8,208 comments) says:

    A Prime Minister who is human and capable of the odd pr gaffe. How refreshing that another alien is not at the helm.

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  41. big bruv (13,884 comments) says:

    Phool

    “..(women don’t have the right to the same pay as men..?”

    And you know this how?????

    I am sure the dole is the same for a bloke as it is for a Shelia.

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  42. georgedarroch (317 comments) says:

    Question: “why is national on 60%?”
    Answer: National probably isn’t on 60%.

    When you have two polls come out at the same time, and one shows a result that nobody has seen in New Zealand political history while the other shows a result we have seen many times before in many different places (a government at the start of its administration getting a fair shake at it from the citizens), which are you to believe? For me, I’ll run with the poll result consistent with historical experience rather than the rewriting of the record books.

    This is the first time TV3 have used Reid. Now I know nothing about Reid’s telephone business, this might be a well designed poll – but they have no history (that I know of) to compare this result to. Is it a rogue poll, or are National at 60%. We’ll have to wait to see if any of the other established pollsters come up with anything similar before we can say.

    I’ll disclose that I went door to door for them when I was an undergrad – the money was poor but the company seemed ok, and their methods fairly robust.

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  43. greenfly (1,059 comments) says:

    DPF: ” He is an instinctive rather than ideological politician. Now his instincts are centre-right..”
    and later, they might be?? (exciting!)
    These ‘instinctive’ decisions he’s making, he’s making them for ..who? Himself? His party? The people of New Zealand? His country? If he has no clear ideology (and that seems clear) who or what is he for? Maybe even he doesn’t know (even more exciting! )

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  44. Barnsley Bill (983 comments) says:

    DPF, have you overdosed on lurgy meds?
    You said;
    “Now sure market purists like myself are wincing from time to time”
    Pfffft. Market purist!
    Shall we trawl through all the Telecom posts where you advocated loudly for asset stripping by the state, trampling private property rights and gang raping the share price?…….

    On another note
    20 kilos of freshly smoked (two days ago) Marlin in my fridge and you can’t get off the bog..

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  45. Helensphotogenicimposter (244 comments) says:

    The Greens are a Values/Socialist party with a sexed up name. They were born out of the values party which wanted to turn New Zealand into a zero growth utopia. The Green component is simple propaganda to hide their true agenda. Is it any secret that Russell Norman is an Australian Commie in disguise? The SIS kept a file on Lockie not because he was an environmentalist, but rightly or wrongly because he was a militant socialist.

    Many of the extreme left of labour would fit right into the Greens mould.

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  46. Murray (8,847 comments) says:

    Why the hell would you care about pay rates phool? The benefit is an equal oportunity unemployer.

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  47. philu (13,393 comments) says:

    here you go..bb..

    http://whoar.co.nz/2009/comment-whoarany-women-workers-out-there-who-voted-for-that-nice-mr-keydidya-hear-this-national-government-has-canned-any-plans-for-you-to-be-paid-the-same-amount-of-money-as-mendoheh/

    phil(whoar.co.nz)

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  48. Murray M (455 comments) says:

    My 1c worth (no redundant), my 2c worth (no redundant), my 5c worth (no redundant), my 10c worth (an ugly looking coin) is that Key appeals to mainstream NZ who were too scared (tax audits, etc) to say anything against the Clark government.
    We now have a PM who is prepared to represent all NZ’ers, not just the chosen few that fit with Clark’s idealology. Socially Helen Clark single handedly fucked this country, and not one of her colleagues who knew it was wrong had the guts (I won’t say balls) to stand up to her.

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  49. stephen (4,063 comments) says:

    …that Key appeals to mainstream NZ who were too scared (tax audits, etc) to say anything against the Clark government.

    I hear the EFA protestors are rumoured to be working in the salt mines of the Ureweras.

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  50. Murray (8,847 comments) says:

    They’re pig hunting actually.

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  51. Murray M (455 comments) says:

    Yeah Murray, and collecting the dole, DPB, invalids and sickness benefits while they are at it.

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  52. Murray (8,847 comments) says:

    All rights as enshrined in the Treaty Murray.

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  53. Murray M (455 comments) says:

    Stephen, another term of a Helen Clark led government and I’d put money on it that the salt mines were just around the corner. More likely to be the East coast of the South Island than the Ureweras though.

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  54. Murray M (455 comments) says:

    Murray, you can stick the treaty where the sun don’t shine.

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  55. Paul Williams (878 comments) says:

    Paul – True. I abjectly apologize for my lapse into nerd-tinged evil Yankee socialist bagmanism. How will I live with myself? – Rob

    You might at least spell using her Majesty’s English when you apologiSe Rob. Is there no end to your insensitivity?

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  56. oob (191 comments) says:

    All rights as enshrined in the Treaty Murray.

    The propaganda of the Left requires translation.

    In this instance we get;

    “As enshrined in a liberal interpretation of a loose translation of a version of a document that nobody actually signed, that became redundant when one of the signatories made war against the Crown, Murray.”

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  57. Christopher (425 comments) says:

    You might at least spell using her Majesty’s English when you apologiSe Rob. Is there no end to your insensitivity?

    Her Majesty.

    Not her Majesty.

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  58. Christopher (425 comments) says:

    “As enshrined in a liberal interpretation of a loose translation of a version of a document that nobody actually signed, that became redundant when one of the signatories made war against the Crown, Murray.”

    I believe Murray was being facetious.

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  59. Kimble (4,438 comments) says:

    Rob and Paul,

    The reason this poll is significant is that this is the only poll Labour has endorsed. It means that even by Labours standards, Key is going great.

    If Labour and their supporters didnt want to have this one poll be the most important one, they should have given others as much credence. Too bad they put all their eggs in one basket.

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  60. Ruth (178 comments) says:

    Another reason Key is so well liked IMO is because he has had such a lot of experience in the REAL world — it shows and people relate to that. Clark was an ivory tower academic, so was Brash.

    Also he is an optimist – I love that and so do many others.

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  61. Frank (320 comments) says:

    Transparency

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  62. PaulL (5,981 comments) says:

    I see this as very similar to in Aus after a similar landslide after a similarly stale govt. The newly minted opposition got rid of a couple of senior leaders, and picked a “safe pair of hands” to tide them over. Unfortunately nobody liked him, and whilst he was safe he wasn’t really leadership material. He got rolled, and Malcolm Turnbull came in instead. I predict NZ Labour will follow that pattern.

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  63. Ross Miller (1,704 comments) says:

    So, what’s the betting on Goff leading Labour into the next election … not?

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  64. Rob Salmond (246 comments) says:

    Kimble

    Normally you are a pretty sharp commenter. Not today.

    I don’t remember anyone from Labour going around bagging Morgan, or saying that the TV3 poll was always right. Also, as George D said, the only thing in common between this TV3 poll and previous years’ is the network sponsoring them. Different research companies, maybe different research methods, etc.

    In addition, nobody is arguing that Key and the Nats are not popular right now. The question is whether, as one poll suggests and another does not, they are the single most popular political party in the history of New Zealand. I think you need more than one poll before you come to that kind of conclusion.

    All this crap about “putting eggs in a polling basket” is just an excuse for empty partisan chest-thumping. If that is what gets you off, then go for it. But I thought you were smarter than that.

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  65. tvb (4,416 comments) says:

    Labour’s strategy is to paint National as hard right and then sneak in a hard left agenda under that cloud they have hung over National. John Key has blown this away and exposed the Labour Party for what it is. The National Party has always been fairly centrist and providing it manages to prevent the Labour Party from painting it as extreme and favouring the “RICH”, National should dominate.

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  66. Paul Williams (878 comments) says:

    Another reason Key is so well liked IMO is because he has had such a lot of experience in the REAL world — it shows and people relate to that.

    I’ve wondered this myself on PublicAddress. He mightn’t have some skills I’d like him to have, but he’s certainly got a common touch which is working for him (and is a little surprising for a bloke that’s worth a matzoh)

    @Christopher, my sincere apologies.

    I don’t remember anyone from Labour going around bagging Morgan, or saying that the TV3 poll was always right.

    You must have missed a hive-mind hook-up Robo, probably the time difference…

    Kimble, seriously enjoy the polls. But remeberth, what the media maketh, the media taketh away…

    Off to the Chiefs soon, must check the ‘Canes score… carry’on.

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  67. kaye (14 comments) says:

    DPF: He is an instinctive rather than ideological politician.

    I think this is why John Key is so popular, as most New Zealanders can identify with his instinctive style. That’s how most of us live our lives—by instinct.

    The electorate got very sick of Labour’s ideology and the ‘I know best’ attitude as it was starting to look irrelevant to what was best for NZ.

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  68. Rebel Heart (249 comments) says:

    The 60% who support National think that those who can work, should. They think that crime is something bad that should be prevented and perpetrators punished.

    They know that taxing the overburdened to support the lifestyle choices of the undeserving is bad government.

    The 60% knows that Communism is a very bad idea, that the damage the Clark regime inflicted upon New Zealand in an effort to instigate a socialist revolution is going to take generations to repair.

    They know that National is New Zealand’s best chance to rebuild.

    No, what you’re really saying is the 60% who support National are Left-wing/centrist idiots who know fuck all about economics and the role of government. ACT supporters are those who think that criminals should be punished and that those who can work should. They know that taxing the overburdened to support the lifestyle choices of the undeserving is bad government.

    The 60% are ignorant idiots who know fuck all about the difference between communism and capitalism, but want to be trendy by supporting John Key and have only voted for him simply because: “it’s been nine years so we’ll just vote National this time just for a bit of a change and he looks like a nice man”.

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  69. Paul Williams (878 comments) says:

    DPF: He is an instinctive rather than ideological politician.

    yeah, like I said a vapid flip-flopper ;-)

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  70. oob (191 comments) says:

    it manages to prevent the Labour Party from painting it as extreme and favouring the “RICH”,

    Yeah the Labour sycophants (e.g. at The Standard) have been pushing this line since the election – it’s a talking point they’ve been instructed to regurgitate like good little automatons by the Labour politburo. God forbid that they should ever think for themselves.

    The propaganda of the Labour Party spewed by their agitators requires translation, here’s a few;

    Labour term: “The Rich”
    Translation: “The Employed.”

    Labour term: “The Workers”
    Translation: “Welfare Beneficiaries and Career Criminals.”

    Labour term: “Crime”
    Translation: “Caucasians exceeding the speed limit in European cars.”

    Labour Term: “Legitimate acts of resistance against the Bourgeois class enemies and colonial oppressors by the heroes of the oppressed proletariat, yearning to break free.”
    Translation: “Violent Crime.”

    Labour term: “High-value immigrants”
    Translation: “The HIV positive, the illiterate and the unskilled.”

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  71. stephen (4,063 comments) says:

    Another reason Key is so well liked IMO is because he has had such a lot of experience in the REAL world — it shows and people relate to that. Clark was an ivory tower academic, so was Brash.

    Yet she still spent seven and a half years crushing all-comers in the preferred PM polls – presumably people related to something there. Or perhaps it was the ‘liking a strong leader’ thing, who knows. Of course the poll was on the National party, but there has been a small digression to Key…

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  72. Paul Williams (878 comments) says:

    Rebel, is the sun shining where you are ’cause you’re a dark cloud aren’t you? Open the windows pal, take a break and trust in Rodders. The revolution is just a t-shirt away (some damned commie once sang).

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  73. stephen (4,063 comments) says:

    Rebel Heart, that poster was projecting their fantasies a bit weren’t they :-D

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  74. dad4justice (8,208 comments) says:

    Great to see Rebel Heart still dwells in sewer rhetoric. I guess nothing ever changes.

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  75. Christopher (425 comments) says:

    No, what you’re really saying is the 60% who support National are Left-wing/centrist idiots who know fuck all about economics and the role of government. ACT supporters are those who think that criminals should be punished and that those who can work should. They know that taxing the overburdened to support the lifestyle choices of the undeserving is bad government.

    The 60% are ignorant idiots who know fuck all about the difference between communism and capitalism, but want to be trendy by supporting John Key and have only voted for him simply because: “it’s been nine years so we’ll just vote National this time just for a bit of a change and he looks like a nice man”.

    That’s pretty much it.

    I do think that Key gets things done though. I don’t agree with everything he does, but at least he doesn’t fuck about.

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  76. bwakile (757 comments) says:

    No, what you’re really saying is the 60% who support National know all about economics and the role of government. ACT supporters are those who think. Criminals should be punished and that those who can work should. They know that taxing the overburdened to support the lifestyle choices of the undeserving is bad government.

    The 60% know all about the difference between communism and capitalism, support John Key and have voted for him because: “it’s been nine years of hell so we’ll vote National for change

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  77. chiz (1,144 comments) says:

    dime:What are the prerequisites to being a Green MP?

    You have to take an IQ test and fail it.

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  78. Patrick Starr (3,674 comments) says:

    ” The 60% are ignorant idiots who know fuck all about the difference between communism and capitalism, but want to be trendy by supporting John Key and have only voted for him simply because: “it’s been nine years so we’ll just vote National this time just for a bit of a change and he looks like a nice man”.”

    so in other words the remaining 40% know the difference – and prefer communism – prefer not to be trendy and like ‘not so nice’ men?

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  79. big bruv (13,884 comments) says:

    Patrick

    Rebel has a bloody good point, those of us who wanted to see the back of Klark might not like what Rebel has written but the fact remains that we have let our desire to see her kicked out on her arse override our common sense and lowered our expectations of what a real National govt should be all about.

    Now is NOT the time for a “nice man”, now is the time for a tough bastard who is not scared to tell the people of New Zealand that we are in the shit and that the rule books have to be tossed out the window.

    Key needs to harden up, it is not about his desire to win a second term and it is not good enough to muddle through with a “don’t scare the horses” approach.
    This govt needs to trust the people of NZ as the first Lange govt did, when faced with a crisis men of the calibre of Lange (before he turned soft cock) Douglas and Prebble decided to do what was right, not what was popular, the result was that they saved NZ and the people rewarded them with another term.

    Key and English have one chance to steer us back on the road to recovery, they have one chance to send the right signals to the people that we need to change the way we live, if the up coming budget does not slash public spending (particularly in he areas of social welfare and the like) then we are doomed to become the third world nation that Kullen and Klark dreamed about.

    The reality is that 60% of the people ARE indeed ignorant fucks, as a right winger I am appalled that a national government can ever reach this level of popular support, all that proves is that Key, English and the Nat’s are not making or taking the hard choices.

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  80. Murray M (455 comments) says:

    BB, I would love to to tell you that your full of shit, but sadly you are right. The taxpayers of this country are going to be forced to look after the useless shits forever and a day. The rot has set in for good.

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  81. tvb (4,416 comments) says:

    Key and English will have many many chances to steer us back to recovery. The Labour Party will only be tried if nothing else seems to be working. They never got above 40% when they were in office in the happiest of times. People may look at Labour when the economy picks up and people want some money to be splashed about.

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  82. OECD rank 22 kiwi (2,752 comments) says:

    Labour’s only “asset” :roll: was Helen Clark. Now she’s a dead duck it’s hardly surprising that everyone is voting for the only show in town.

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