A rare prediction
March 9th, 2009 at 9:15 am by David FarrarI tend to shy away from making firm predictions, but in this case I am going to go out on a limb, and make a series of related predictions:
- Annette King will stand for Mayor of Wellington in 2010
- The resulting by-election will see Andrew Little enter Parliament as MP for Rongotai
- Unless Labour wins the 2011 election, Andrew will become Labour Party Leader shortly after the election, successfully challenging Phil Goff.
Time will tell if I am right or not. I’m quietly confident.
Related posts:
- Wellington Mayoralty not on the radar
- Little for President then Parliament
- Little for New Plymouth?
- Campaigning in Wellington for New Plymouth
March 9th, 2009 at 9:19 am
stirrer…
Vote:March 9th, 2009 at 9:25 am
Annette will only stand for Mayor if the planets are in alignment, and definately not if the elections are on a full moon.
Vote:March 9th, 2009 at 9:26 am
If Andrew Little becomes leader.. can we bang on and on and on that he doesnt have enough experience?
Vote:March 9th, 2009 at 9:27 am
Interesting prediction, DPF. A by-election from King’s resignation in Rongotai would only result if King resigned from Parliament irrespective of whether she won the mayoralty. It looks like Blumsky will stand again for the mayoralty next year. Do you think King would beat Blumsky? If not, do you think King would resign her parliamentary seat even if she lost the mayoralty?
There’s a lot of what-ifs here, but I think the chances of King winning against Blumsky are slim, and I doubt that she will resign her parliamentary seat if she loses.
[DPF: I won't predict who would win. I think pressure would be on King to resign before the election - doing so would boost her chances. She can not credibly carry on as Deputy Leader after she announces she wants a job change.]
Vote:March 9th, 2009 at 9:31 am
My pet dog has more chance of winning than King.
Vote:March 9th, 2009 at 9:35 am
So does a Mayoral post pay more than an opposition MP?
With all the trimmings (Huge, fat perks really).
Otherwise what would be her rationale.
Vote:March 9th, 2009 at 9:42 am
Annette King will stand for Mayor of Wellington in 2010
>> WGN has a history of liking straight shooting woman in office, just keep her & hubby away from the WGN district health board. I would question the sanity of wellingtonians if they voted her in.
The resulting by-election will see Andrew Little enter Parliament as MP for Rongotai
>> the great middle aged corporate white male hope eh? bet thats going down like a bucket of cold sick amongst the radical & handwringing elements of the labour movement.
Unless Labour wins the 2011 election, Andrew will become Labour Party Leader shortly after the election, successfully challenging Phil Goff.
Vote:>> Now your having a giraffe! Goff to last that long?! Mwhah hahahahahah ha!
March 9th, 2009 at 9:44 am
Gee, I hope you’re right. Andrew Little may well be very talented and hard working, but he’s deeply unlovable. Then again, who’d have thought the nation would go collectively weak at the knees for Helen? You could very well be on to something.
Vote:March 9th, 2009 at 9:56 am
Phil Goff surviving to lead the party into the 2011 election? Wow, that’s a big call…:)
Vote:March 9th, 2009 at 10:41 am
If AK’s committment to the role of deputy leader is so weak as to consider jumping ship before even facing an election, why on earth did she seek the role?
As for AL: He’d have to be bloody amazing (and the caucus pretty much insane) to get the leader’s job after only a year in Parliament – ahead of Cunliffe, Jones etc etc. That would be even quicker than Brash’s rise (which did not end all that well). And who thinks AL is better than DB?
Vote:March 9th, 2009 at 10:51 am
Little, Cunliffe, Goff, King, Mallard.
All are fantastic choices in my book.
The next leader hasn’t emerged yet IMHO.
Maybe Delahunty will switch codes? I would so love that.
Vote:March 9th, 2009 at 10:57 am
But will Goff get to shape the Labour party in his own image in the mean time?
Vote:March 9th, 2009 at 11:04 am
Wrong DPF, imo.
Little is astute enough to realise there is no need to rush into these things. I suspect, rather than aiming to be a PM as soon as possible, aged late 40s, he will be content to be PM late 50s. i.e. he will take time to garner experience in Parliament and learn before jumping into the hot seat.
He will allow another round or two of leadership changes before taking over.
I will bet 2 cents on it.
Vote:March 9th, 2009 at 11:09 am
Would Labour really risk giving that much ammunition to National? Surely Little would be the easiest leader to swat away – i can see the cartoons with dancing cossacks now
Vote:March 9th, 2009 at 11:54 am
Glutae
Do not underestimate Little, the man is extremely talented and is the ONLY threat on the horizon to those of us who never want to see Labour in power again.
Vote:March 9th, 2009 at 11:55 am
Sorry DPF but did you find out what your source was smoking?
My prediction is Goff for 2011 and Cunliffe if Labour somehow does not make it back then.
[DPF: Be specific. What parts do you disagree with?]
Vote:March 9th, 2009 at 11:59 am
“Time will tell if I am right or not. I’m quietly confident.”
Then you should have kept quiet. The chances of the Labour Party following a script laid out by DPF of Kiwiblog is virtually zero.
Observer effect in occurance.
Vote:March 9th, 2009 at 12:25 pm
The problem for Labour in this DPF scenario is that it views the Presidency of the Labour Party a short term steppingstone to parliament.
A president focused on working his way to Parliament means a President not focused on re building an election winning machine. To go into Parliament at a general election is perhaps another matter. Shortly after the election there will be a verdict on Little’s political skill.
Perhaps Little doesn’t have the organisational skill anyway. Does the EPMU eat up other unions’ members (growth by amalgamation) or actually grow the business (extend union coverage to formally non union members).
As to the prospect of Little being a future leader – heavens he has all the fun, personality and excitement of a wet weekend in Taihape. Goff is Vagas by comparison. Perhaps there is some personality there we haven’t seen any yet.
With due respects to Wellingtonians, Little is very very Wellington. I don’t believe either of the major parties can win an election with a leader from outside Auckland.
Not that I in the job of giving Labour advice but If Little was serious about being a future Labour Leader he should actually contest the Mt Albert By Election and commit to remaining as President up to the next election. Labour has had MPs as President before (although it might now require a rule change). He could also shift the EPMU National office to Auckland (if it isn’t already) after all it will be where most of his union members are. Auckland is where Labour must also win – they already do well in Wellington as compared to the parties of the right – I am not sure there are any more votes for them down there.
Vote:March 9th, 2009 at 1:23 pm
What a gift if AL does become LP leader. Come to think of it all the current suspects are sooooooooo tainted they have a target painted in their foreheads for we of the VRW.
Its all shooting the proverbial in the proverbial
In fact Im already bored with Flick hes no challenge Eliminate with extreme prejudice and bring on the next contender
Vote:March 9th, 2009 at 2:41 pm
Is the present mayor going to stand down then?
[DPF: Yes Kerry has said it is her final term]
Vote:March 9th, 2009 at 3:16 pm
Have you tried chicken entrails I here they give better results then tea leaves.
Vote: