Bad Claire!
Claire Trevett has a good article on the pending Mt Albert by-election but makes one big error:
National’s candidate in the 2008 election was Ravi Musuku who has said he wishes to stand in a byelection. However, if he won, it would mean their bottom list MP – Aaron Gilmore – had to leave.
No, no, no no. This is not the case. To be fair to Claire many many people think this is the law, but it is not. Proportionality is not maintained if a by-election sees a seat change hands. There is no way at all a List MP can ever be forced out of Parliament because of a by-election (or an electoral petition). They are there for the whole term unless they do something stupid like become a Dutch citizen.
Helen Clark’s departure will force a byelection in the Mt Albert seat she has held for the past 28 years.
The Herald understands Labour expects to stand a newcomer in the seat, rather than a sitting list MP – as part of its efforts to refresh its ranks.
The effect of standing a newcomer would be to block Judith Tizard from returning to Parliament on the list.
The Mt Albert seat is a Labour stronghold and new list MP Phil Twyford, who lives in the electorate, was previously tipped as most likely to take over.
However, Labour has reconsidered. It would mean Damien O’Connor returning to Parliament to take up Mr Twyford’s list spot – leaving the next spot open for Judith Tizard to take up when Michael Cullen leaves, as he is expected to later this year.
Its a bit unfortunate for Twyford, but things have changed in recent weeks. I blogged in detail about the problem of how a Twyford win could bring Tizard in, as long ago as last year. I concluded:
So you see the problem for Labour. Either Helen has to stay on for the full term, or someone other than Twyford is the candidate, or they risk the public working out voting for Labour will bring a plonker back in on the list and losing your predecessor’s seat in a byelection would see Goff rolled.
Now there was a general expectation that Judith would not want to return, and maybe they could get Burton, Okerao, Gallager and Hereora to stand aside also. She has no rapport with Goff, has no chance of getting a senior role, and lost a seat that Labour has held for 95 years. But multiple sources have confirmed that she is absolutely hellbent on returning as she wants to “restore her reputation” and also defend s92A – she even lambasts her former colleagues as not understanding it.
You can imagine the panic this has caused in Labour’s ranks. It would be near impossible for Labour to lose Mt Albert, but the thought of the by-election becoming a referendum on what Aucklanders thing of Judith is the stuff of nightmares for them. So Twyford loses the chance to have a safe seat for 2011.
On the plus side, if Twyford is patient he might be able to grab Mt Roskill in 2014 
March 26th, 2009 at 9:04 am
What, would happen if NZ first won Mt Albert? Just curious, is it even possible for NZ first to stand?
[DPF: Labour would be one seat down, and NZ First would hold that one seat]
March 26th, 2009 at 9:14 am
“and lost a seat that Labour has held for 95 years”
Prebble lost the seat for Labour to Sandra Lee – Was for only one term, but it has not been unbroken for 95 years…
Wreck – If NZ First won then they would get that person elected to Parliament. Nothing else would change.
[DPF: Sorry yes I should have said that the left has held for 95 years]
March 26th, 2009 at 9:19 am
Yes well… her sense of pride in her reputation is inversely proportional to the distance of her snout from the trough!
March 26th, 2009 at 9:27 am
There would be one NZF MP, and Labour would have one fewer MPs.
Basically, any New Zealand citizen, 18+, enrolled to vote, not currently in prison for a three-year stretch, who can get two registered voters in the electorate to nominate them, and pony up with the $300 deposit, can stand.
March 26th, 2009 at 9:35 am
How you can twist this to mean Tizard gets back in is beyond me.
If Twford was elected and as a result , Tizard took HIS place it might be possible the average Mt Albert voter would see a connection.
That Helens leaving could cause a butterfly to drop out of the sky in Australia could happen too.
A new version of politics is about., NP win the general election but are STILL bitter and twisted.
Did someone say haters and wreckers
[DPF: You really don't get the difference between coincidence and direct consequence do you? Most people who have finished school can work it out.]
March 26th, 2009 at 9:38 am
Hmmm. Time for a strong Green candidate in that electorate methinks.
March 26th, 2009 at 9:45 am
Hmmm. Time for a strong Green candidate in that electorate methinks.
Yeah, splitting the left-wing vote to give the seat to National is the kind of brilliant strategic thinking that got Labour and the Greens where they are today.
[DPF: Shhsssh]
March 26th, 2009 at 9:48 am
“Time for a strong Green candidate in that electorate.”
That’s an oxymoron.
By definition, all Green Party candidates are soft in the head, mildly deranged, speak nonsense, worship a mythical Gaia, and dress shabbily. Therefore, a “strong candidate” for the Luddites is an impossibility.
March 26th, 2009 at 9:51 am
I do not think Harry was ‘stupid’ for successfully applying to regain his Dutch citizenship. Ignorance of the law perhaps. Note too that the amended Dutch legislation allowed a limited period only for those who lost Dutch citizenship by becoming a citizen of another country to apply to regain their Dutch citizenship. There are a not insignificant number of such people, proud to be NZ cirizens but who would equally proud of their Dutch heritage.
[DPF: If I was an MP, I would make sure I knew the eligibility requirements to remain an MP very well, and I would definitely get advice before I become a citizen of another country]
March 26th, 2009 at 9:57 am
Ironic how the only people who ever mention ‘Gaia’ are people who don’t like the Greens, and not the Greens themselves.
March 26th, 2009 at 10:19 am
ffs..!
i find myself in agreement with toad..
..(end-times alert..!..)
phil(whoar.co.nz)
March 26th, 2009 at 10:23 am
My understanding it is the Labour party members of the electorate that make the decision on who stands. Is that correct?
[DPF: No Head Office has three votes, the electorate has three and the meeting gets one vote]
March 26th, 2009 at 10:25 am
btw..dpf..
i’ve whoar-ed you..
http://whoar.co.nz/2009/reasons-why-labour-should-dread-any-return-to-the-political-stage-by-clarks-handbagjudith-tizard/
phil(whoar.co.nz)
March 26th, 2009 at 10:28 am
Danyl Mclauchlan (445) Vote: 3 0 Says:
March 26th, 2009 at 9:45 am
“Hmmm. Time for a strong Green candidate in that electorate methinks.
Yeah, splitting the left-wing vote to give the seat to National is the kind of brilliant strategic thinking that got Labour and the Greens where they are today.”
[DPF: Shhsssh]
DPF, can you set up the system so we can give you karma for your editorial comments: that one deserves a good lot of thums-up……!
March 26th, 2009 at 10:35 am
I will leave the country permanently when an electorate in NZ puts a Green electorate candidate in parliament. The Greens being wiped out by going below 5%, would be the best thing that could happen to our parliamentary makeup.
Look at the leadership and the choices for female co-leader after biddy Fitzsimons: a Marxist radical social control freak, architect of the anti-smacking law, who used to stand for some revolutionary “People’s Network”; and an outright anarchist who used to stand for the McGillicuddy Serious Party…..? Heck, there are more MP’s in the mainstream parties who are truly about caring for the environment.
March 26th, 2009 at 11:12 am
“..I will leave the country permanently when an electorate in NZ puts a Green electorate candidate in parliament. ..”
oh..!..still..!.. my beating heart..!
phil(whoar.co.nz)
March 26th, 2009 at 11:21 am
but seriously..!
..as anti-nader as i am..(for begatting/inflicting bush upon us..
..by splitting the democrartic vote..)
a mt albert bye-election would be a perfect place for a strong green candidate..
..it won’t be election-result-changing..
..and will/would be a perfect opportunity for the people to send a strong green message/imperative..
..to this (highway-junkie/resource-managment-act-gutting) national government..
..and hey..!..as for who that candidate should be..?
..well..nandor has had enough of a ‘rest’..eh.?
..and vibrant/multi-cultural mt albert would just love to have nandor as their local mp..
..(um..!..there are second chapters..nandor..!
.. eh..?
..and hey..!
..imagine how ‘sweet’ it wd be..?
..eh..?..)
phil(whoar.co.nz)
March 26th, 2009 at 11:32 am
See that Jacob VH has distinguished himself by another moronic posting.
Perhaps morons of the world should unite in support of ‘our’ Jacob.
Mt Albert a Labour stronghold? Isn’t it becoming more gentrified. Party Vote last time was Labour 42.5% vs Nat 35.7%.
March 26th, 2009 at 11:39 am
“..Mt Albert a Labour stronghold? Isn’t it becoming more gentrified..”
no..it is multi-cultural..to quite a wonderful degree..
..my immediate neighbors are muslim and pacific islanders..
..(and i couldn’t ask for better neighbors..)..
..and mt albert has that lively/alive ponsonby pre-gentrification feel about it..
..i moved here from freemans bay..
..that hotspot of uptight wasps..
..multi-cultural mt albert is much ‘better’ than ‘gentrified’..freemans bay..
..eh..?
phil(whoar.co.nz)
March 26th, 2009 at 12:06 pm
PhilBest said: I will leave the country permanently when an electorate in NZ puts a Green electorate candidate in parliament.
How come you’re still here then Phil? Because one did in 1999 – Coromandel.
March 26th, 2009 at 12:15 pm
[DPF: No Head Office has three votes, the electorate has three and the meeting gets one vote]
Except in this case where you are convinced the new candidate will be hand picked by Hellens iron fist.
March 26th, 2009 at 12:20 pm
So, NZ first wouldn’t get their 4% party vote MP’s into parliament, if they won mt albert. Was wondering about that.
March 26th, 2009 at 12:29 pm
Glenda Fryer perhaps as Labour’s candidate?