Rudman warns Labour could lose Mt Albert

March 27th, 2009 at 9:08 am by David Farrar

Brian Rudman looks at Mt Albert:

For an aspiring career politician, especially one tipped for greater things, an electorate seat is a necessary accessory. It gives you a certain freedom that being a mere list MP doesn’t.

This is very right. When MMP came in, some people thought everyone would want to be a List MP as it would be less work.  But the security you gain from holding an electorate seat is massive. It gives you an official role in the local community and almost all List MPs would like to hold an electorate.

That’s why up-and-coming first term Labour list MP is so keen to take over from departing MP and former Prime Minister Helen Clark. …

But jeerings from the sideline by right-wing bloggers and their mates about the downstream consequences of Mr Twyford being selected, seems to have got the Labour leadership all a-twitter.

Those bastards. How dare they point out consequences. Shoot them all!

They want him to bide his time and take on Auckland Central in 2011, or dare I suggest, Mt Roskill, perhaps, whenever Mr Goff bows out.

Is Mr Rudman suggesting there might be a vacancy in that seat for 2011 also?

The bright side for Mr Twyford if he stands aside is that he might be well out of it. With Ms Clark gone, Labour could lose, just as it lost neighbouring Auckland Central a few months before.

Last November, the incumbent Prime Minster on 20,157 vote easily beat her National Party rival, Baptist minister Ravi Musuku, on 9806.

But this included a huge personal vote, with 16.5 per cent of National list voters ticking her as their MP.

The party vote was much closer, Labour leading National by 2436.

This is true.  However to pour a bit of damp water on this gap, one should also look at what the Greens and ACT got, because in a by-election their voters will probably vote tactically. The Greens got 3,846 party votes and ACT 1,227 so if you look CL to CR that gap is actually around 5,000 votes.

The other imponderable is how long the honeymoon will linger. With that in mind, Labour would be smart to delay Ms Clark’s resignation as long as possible.

That is the wildcard. What happens if the hugely popular Key actively campaigns in the seat?

As for timings, the speculation I have heard is Helen resigns in May and a by-election in June.

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19 Responses to “Rudman warns Labour could lose Mt Albert”

  1. Piggy (66 comments) says:

    It’s going to be interesting to see who they go with. If they’re dumb enough to pick, say, Kate Sutton, then it could be a very fun election =o

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  2. calendar girl (1,244 comments) says:

    I’m surprised that Rudman’s language in this opinion piece is so clearly that of the left.

    One would expect a journalist in his role with a mjor paper to to attempt to preserve a veneer of impartiality (as many of them do). When he “outs” himself with language like “jeerings from the sideline by right-wing bloggers and their mates”, he can’t expect much credibility for anything else he writes that has any kind of political flavour or influence.

    [DPF: To be fair to Rudman, he is a columnist, not a reporter.]

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  3. jacob van hartog (300 comments) says:

    “Those bastards. How dare they point out consequences. Shoot them all!”

    he merely said they were all a ‘twitter’

    But anyway, I thought the witchdoctor had been dispatched, whos next for the mineshaft ?

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  4. expat (4,050 comments) says:

    Michael Jones for MP

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  5. OECD rank 22 kiwi (2,752 comments) says:

    I take it Helen will be too busy to lend support to the new Labour candidate?

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  6. Gooner (995 comments) says:

    Nah, won’t be June. Too soon. July or even August I reckon.

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  7. andrei (2,664 comments) says:

    When MMP came in, some people thought everyone would want to be a List MP as it would be less work. But the security you gain from holding an electorate seat is massive. It gives you an official role in the local community and almost all List MPs would like to hold an electorate.

    Refresh my memory, what was Don Brash’s electorate seat?

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  8. stephen (4,063 comments) says:

    What’s your point? FWIW, he didn’t need ‘security’, as he was number 1 on the list. I’m surprised leaders have the time for electorates at all, would surely be better to let another MP take care of them as they’d at least have a lot more time.

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  9. anonymouse (717 comments) says:

    The timing of any by-election will be interesting, especially if it is close to August, I believe that there is a postal referenda on S59 around that time, so this might have some impact on the outcome.

    I am not sure if it will help the Nats (given they voted for the legislation), but I suspect it would not be favourable to Labour/Greens if the tub-thumpers get out and about.

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  10. expat (4,050 comments) says:

    Labour will get ‘embarrassed’ in the Mt Albert election.

    Thats code for trounced like the $7 buck chardonnay socialists that they are.

    Who stepped into the State Houses of Mt Albert and took the little girl to Waitangi? Clue: Its wasn’t Helen and it wasn’t Labour.

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  11. Ratbiter (1,265 comments) says:

    I think it’s a mistake to assume that it’s a safe Labour seat. It has been a safe Helen Clark seat for years, that’s not exactly the same thing.

    Calendar Girl – ALL mainstream media is corrupt and infiltrated by dirty lefties. It’s all part of our plan to achieve global socialism, don’t you know? Just ask Redbaiter or any of “his mates”… :-D

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  12. Ratbiter (1,265 comments) says:

    “Those bastards. How dare they point out consequences. Shoot them all!”

    That’s rich! You do jeer from the sidelines. Some days it looks like that’s *all* you do! But you’ll notice Rudman is not actually blaming you for anything or saying you did anything wrong – indeed he seems pretty positive about the Labour leadership having another think about it ;-)

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  13. gd (2,286 comments) says:

    helen wont be hanging around now the big jobs confirmed

    Good grief She got $10BIllion a year to waste and an army of UN pen pushers to double in numbers like she and Mikey did. in NZ

    She will be off to NY in a flash. the Socilaists if not beaten will be severly bloodied as the economic conditions worsen and the fruits of the Socialists contribution to its failure are revealed.

    When the good citizens of My Albery find out that had Clark/CUllen not wasted Billions on daft low value policies and instead let the tax payer keep more of their earnings they are going to turn on the new candidate big time and make them pay.

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  14. Gooner (995 comments) says:

    This is the funniest bit from Granny this morning:

    “Mike Moore, the last New Zealander to hold a high-profile international position when he was head of the World Trade Organisation, said the UNDP had problems in many countries because of the “appalling politicians” running them.

    “There are bad guys who take money…I’ve dealt with a lot of these villains and I think Helen will deal to some of them,” he said on One News.”

    HA HA! Like she dealt to Winston Peters, Taito Field and to a lesser extent Dover Samuels and John Tamihere?

    AND:

    “The UNDP was established in 1965 and among its aims are reducing poverty, halting the spread of HIV/Aids, improving environmental protection and raising the standards of governance internationally.”

    Laudable aims but an appalling record.

    Poverty hasn’t been reduced one iota. Africa is still poor. AIDS is rife there and has not been “halted”. Helen Clark led NZ to an increase in Co2 emissions and the largest emitters of Co2 in the World refused to sign up to Kyoto. Finally, do I really need to go on about international governance standards? We only need to look in our back yard over the last nine years to see a perfect example of where these are headed!

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  15. reid (16,522 comments) says:

    I think it’s a mistake to assume that it’s a safe Labour seat. It has been a safe Helen Clark seat for years, that’s not exactly the same thing.

    Exactly right, ratbiter. The demography in Mt Albert is more inclined to National than Labour. As I said the other day, a candidate like Tamihere standing for National would be a tough proposition to beat.

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  16. Seán (397 comments) says:

    DPF said: “one should also look at what the Greens and ACT got, because in a by-election their voters will probably vote tactically.”

    …however I think that actually third parties do very well in by-elections, usually much better than in the general election. You may have even said this yourself in the past David. Considering the relatively small Lab vs Nat party vote gap, and that an electorate by-election is essentially FPP by itself, I’d say…Game on!

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  17. Falafulu Fisi (2,179 comments) says:

    I am thinking of standing in Mt. Albert for ACT.

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  18. stephen (4,063 comments) says:

    The demography in Mt Albert is more inclined to National than Labour.

    Out of curiosity, what demographic are you referring to that we know is more inclined towards National?

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  19. expat (4,050 comments) says:

    The demographic that hates Labour.

    On last count thats about 60%+ of NZ.

    Bye bye Labour.

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