Labour in full panic mode over Mt Albert
April 13th, 2009 at 8:36 am by David FarrarThe NZ Herald reports:
The Labour Party is sounding out Mt Albert voters on the byelection – including asking whether they want a “celebrity” MP and testing feelings on Judith Tizard re-entering Parliament.
Labour commissioned UMR Research group to hold several two-hour, focus group meetings of Mt Albert voters in the lead-up to the byelection, following the resignation of former Prime Minister Helen Clark.
Now focus groups are part and parcel of politics. However this is the first time I can recall a party commissioning one (or several) for a by-election. Polls are relatively common, but focus groups less so.
And when you consider that Mt Albert is Labour’s safest seat, that gives some indication as to the degree of nervousness within Labour’s ranks. You see focus groups are not cheap. I do not know UMR’s fees, but for four or five focus groups, the cost I suspect is a five figure sum.
So why would you spend so much money on such a safe seat? Because you are worried you may lose it to a Vote Twyford, Get Tizard campaign. There is no doubt that Twyford is the preferred candidate – but they are nervous over the power of such a campaign. They failed to get Tizard to relinquish her list place, so they are testing the waters.
Interestingly the Electoral Finance Act is no longer in force. So there is no $1,000 limit on an individual or organisation running its own education campaign in the by-election. A group could use direct mail to send a personalised letter to every voter (costs around $20,000) explaining how a vote for that nice Mr Twyford will result in that nice Miss Tizard becoming an MP again. And it could quote from various newspaper articles about the desirability of this. Maybe it could also remind people of s92A, what people say about it, and how Judith says it is a good law that should not be changed. Will Mt Albert residents want their Internet access at risk, if they vote for that nice Mr Twyford? Well, okay – that is probably stretching things too far – but you can see how much fun a third party campaign could have.
Anyway back to the article:
One participant said they were asked about Ms Tizard as part of a wider question about “celebrity” or well-known people standing for politics. Examples included Michael Jones, television presenter Paul Henry, comedian Mike King, actor Oscar Kightley and NZX boss Mark Weldon.
The focus group indicated concern about the possibility of a “Vote Twyford, get Tizard” campaign impacting on Labour’s chances.
That is an interesting sentence. Presumably the Herald has been in contact with one or more of the persons who took part in the focus groups. And they “indicated concern”.
Ms Tizard lost the Auckland Central seat to Nikki Kaye but would re-enter Parliament to fill list MP Phil Twyford’s list spot if he was the party’s Mt Albert candidate and won. The participant said the group members were asked what they knew about Mr Twyford – who lives in Kingsland and is favoured by Helen Clark.
There is another risk to having Tizard come back in to replace Twyford. No less than losing MMP. You see the Government has pledged to have a referendum on MMP. Now personally I don’t think people will vote for change (partly thanks to John Key). but if I was running an anti-MMP campaign, then I would use the Mt Albert by-election as a reason to dump MMP – the fact defeated electorate candidates can come back on the list.
Labour’s intensive polling of Mt Albert voters indicates the party is nervous about holding on to the electorate, which has always been viewed as a safe Labour seat, and where Helen Clark was MP for 27 years.
Just 2000 votes separated National and Labour in the party vote last election – and National’s popularity has soared since then.
Yes but the correct comparison is CR to CL on the party vote and that is 55% CL to 40% CR.
Labour Party president Andrew Little confirmed that the party had commissioned the focus groups and was polling in the electorate. He said it was common to test for important local issues.
Polling is more traditional. In Labour’s case it is going to be combining the polling and focus group results. The difficult scenario for them is if the poll shows that say Twyford can win the seat by 5% or so, but the focus groups show up to 10% of voters could change their votes if exposed to a Vote Twyford, get Tizard campaign. The question for Labour then is – do they risk it? Or in the words of Dirty Harry – do you feel lucky today punk? 
If the polling shows Labour/Twyford way way ahead, then they can select him without worrying about a Twyford/Tizard campaign. But if things are closer, the head office may plump for another candidate such as Meg Bates.
Does anyone know the date of the selection meeting for Mt Albert for Labour? I understand media are allowed to attend and report on them, so I might pop along for the fun!
Related posts:
- Labour’s problem with Mt Albert
- Rudman warns Labour could lose Mt Albert
- Labour’s decision to not risk Twyford in Mt Albert
- Greens and Mt Albert
April 13th, 2009 at 8:53 am
Meg Bates is their only option
Vote:April 13th, 2009 at 9:09 am
Why do you think the Twyford/Tizard issue is anything more than a beltway issue?
That electorate looks pretty safe – maybe they just don’t want to blow it so they’re being careful.
Maybe they’re considering Michael Jones and just want to sound him out? He’d probably be safer than Twyford, over time.
[DPF: Jones is a National/Key supporter. It may be a beltway only issue - but the fact Labour is spending many thousands of dollars to find out suggests they do not think it is. And from the story, the focus group suggested it would be a negative for Labour. What we don't know is howmuch of a negative]
Vote:April 13th, 2009 at 9:29 am
reid – read the blog again. If Labour’s research indicates that it is indeed only a ‘beltwy’ issue they will set the scene for My Twyford to stand as their most logical candidate. If it is more than a ‘beltway’ (presumably defined by Wellington’s ‘Town Belt’) Labour needs to re-think. So far Labour’s approach deserves something near a 10/10 mark. Far better than one almighty pubic pre-selection spat.
Vote:April 13th, 2009 at 9:33 am
Call me simple, but to me this just sums up why Labour keep getting it wrong. They have to hire an outside research company to guess at what the electorate wants because Labour have forgotten how to talk to the electorate themselves.
Vote:April 13th, 2009 at 9:48 am
Labour are just so desperate to keep Tizard out. Tizard represents everything that is bad about Labout Labour. Labour and Phil-in recognise this. Tizard returning will put back even further any chance Labour may have had in 2011 and 2014.
But Clark has promised Twford the seat. Clark has also in her Q&A interview essentially said Tizard has the right to return.
This is so interesting and so funny – certainly a story worth watching develop.
Vote:April 13th, 2009 at 9:58 am
I can’t see how this anything more than a beltway issue either. The idea that this is an issue at all is mind boggling. The fact of the matter is, Tizard had a realistic chance of making it on the list at the general election. If Labour really didn’t like her (I don’t know the party’s selection process, which could change the slant of this) they would have ranked her lower on the party list. Or not let her retain what was previously known as a pretty safe Labour seat. Not withstanding anything she does after the selection which was before the election.
Has she done (or not done) anything since then to attract disfavour from Labour? Other than lose an electorate seat – along with many other Labour MPs? So what if she makes it in if a certain Labour candidate wins the by-election? She has every right to assume the vacant list seat. If people don’t like this, their beef is with the current MMP rules, not the Labour party or Tizard.
The only thing that would seem dubious would be putting pressure on her to stand aside. Which would appear to many as a bypassing of process, like say the “backdoor selection” of Russel Norman into parliament for the Greens.
Continuing with reid’s speculation is that they’re playing safe with this seat – maybe they are concerned that Mt Albert could be another Auckland Central.
Vote:April 13th, 2009 at 10:15 am
Beltway issue. Judith Tizard would just be another no-name MP in a party that has a few dozen. I’d bet National has a few too. What a beat up (by all involved).
[DPF: Maybe, but Labour are spending $10,000+ to find out if that is the case.]
Vote:April 13th, 2009 at 10:32 am
Yep they’re idiots
Vote:April 13th, 2009 at 10:36 am
This is an attempt by the right wing to phrase the issue for Labour and it should ignore all of this posturing.
Judith was not a bad MP or Minister, she was active, had a good network of contacts and she knew her areas. She was lambusted by the right wing media but so was Helen and Michael. She did lose the seat, but Waitakere and Maungakiekie were also lost and their “safety” as labour seats was comparable. Her negatives are primarily media created. If you sompared her to such National luminaries as Richard WOrth, Anne Tolley or Nick Smith I know who I would prefer to have in parliament.
The selection is not a foregone contest, the local organisation has a significant say and there are some good candidates there. Anything is possible.
It should be remembered that in Mangere in 1977 David Lange, then an unknown, came through to beat Head Office’s preferred candidate Mike Moore?
[DPF: If Judith was such a good Minister, why is Labour spending so much money on focus groups about her?]
Vote:April 13th, 2009 at 10:36 am
David. Nominations close on 22 April with the selection due by 30 April, so all should be revealed within a couple of weeks.
Interesting that everyone demonises Judith Tizard. Surely the isue is what’s best for Mt Albert. Perhaps a debate over issues and what’s best for Mt Albert rather than one based on personalities is what’s needed.
Vote:April 13th, 2009 at 10:37 am
Traditional Labour voters voting for the Green candidate in droves to keep Tizard out! Looks good to me.
[DPF: Third parties often do very very well in by-elections. And the Greens can make the case that Labour can never again form Government without them, so that giving the Greens an electorate seat is a life insurance policy for Labour.]
Vote:April 13th, 2009 at 10:40 am
Heh, closet Nat supporter are we?
Vote:April 13th, 2009 at 10:45 am
“Judith was not a bad MP or Minister, she was active..”
Another Labour minion trying to rewrite history.
Tizard was an ineffective and invisible minister, except for the cocktail parties and receptions she always attended. On serious matters she was, is, and will be a non-entity.
Yes, the same Tizard who used to knit while attending Select Committee meeetings paying little attention to proceedings (I witnessed that), and who cannot be taken seriously.
Vote:April 13th, 2009 at 10:51 am
Twyford would be an excellent candidate, but Labour would be wise to avoid the “Vote Twyford, Get Tizard” situation. Then again, if the Government decides it wants to build a surface level Waterview Connection Labour could put up a donkey as their candidate and still win.
Vote:April 13th, 2009 at 11:04 am
stephen said: Heh, closet Nat supporter are we?
Not at all. But Twyford’s already an MP, so there’s not a great incentive to vote for him. And the Nats have the numbers to govern, whoever wins the seat. So Labour voters may as well vote Green if Twyford is the candidate to stop Tizard coming back on the list.
Vote:April 13th, 2009 at 11:13 am
“So Labour voters may as well vote Green”
yeah, bugger the policy eh Toad – just how you like your supoprters
Vote:April 13th, 2009 at 11:22 am
Patrick, there a lots of people who normally vote Labour out of tradition, tactics, and/or a misunderstanding of how MMP actually works who prefer the Greens policies.
Vote:April 13th, 2009 at 11:30 am
Brilliant, the donkies at Labour HQ are spending squillions on UMR to tell them the electorate hates their candidates but move along folks there is nothing to see here, cue Rob Slamond enters stage left spinning pseudo intellectual bile.
LFMFAO.
The Labour Party Strategy Unit – the gift that keeps giving. Donkies.
Vote:April 13th, 2009 at 11:33 am
You gotta love all these Labour hacks coming here to defend Tizard. All right boys, you win. Run Twyford for the seat and lets see how that works out for you. *snicker*
Vote:April 13th, 2009 at 11:40 am
Lets look at the demographics in Mt Albert.
1) bene’s in statesville – Keys been down there and has some street cred, fairly fundamental in outlook, Hels and Labour are probably viewed as a bit f*cking weak.
2) Middle classes – looking a bit fragile in the recession, marginal.
3) Upper / middle classes – national.
4) Refugee Immigrants – I see the EPMU or Unite or one of the other bludging units has been trying to scaremonger immigrants. This may work but these guys have seen far more effective stringarm men and probably view the unions woth contempt, quite rightly.
5) Asians – Labour would go down like a sack of cold sick, handing out their taxes to bludgers.
Result – Labour gets a kicking.
Vote:Why – Everyone hates them.
April 13th, 2009 at 11:46 am
scuse spelling – this is so funny.
Vote deciders in Mt Albert.
1) Motorway plans, under or over, I note Labour never really went public on this not really.
Vote:2) Rail station upgrade and Main street revitalisation, again dropped by the left.
3) Sorting out the retarded school system wrt dicotomy in quality and zoning.
4) Regeneration of the corridor by the motorway path.
April 13th, 2009 at 11:53 am
toad “Patrick, there a lots of people who normally vote Labour out of tradition, tactics, and/or a misunderstanding of how MMP actually works who prefer the Greens policies.”
Oh the irony, apparently those stupid enough to prefer Green’s policy are too stupid to actually vote Green.
Vote:April 13th, 2009 at 11:58 am
LOL – Good point Hagues
Vote:April 13th, 2009 at 12:04 pm
So mickeysavage thinks JT was a good Minister and Member and its all a right wing beat up.
Please, please keep saying that mickey and lobby ‘your ‘ Labour Head office friends accordingly and if it all comes to pass and Phil is the nominee and no-one knobbles Judith I will be the first to propose you receive a grateful vote of thanks from all of us ‘righties’.
Vote:April 13th, 2009 at 12:12 pm
” following the resignation of former Prime Minister Helen Clark”
Except she has not resigned as yet, Klark continues the long line of Labour scum who steal from the tax payer even though they are no longer doing the job we pay them to do.
Vote:April 13th, 2009 at 12:17 pm
Toad
If the Greens are going to stand a candidate then you should at least be honest with the voting public and tell them who the new co leader is going to be.
Up until now the Greens have cheated, lied and rorted the system to their own advantage, how about you break the habit if a lifetime and be honest with the public for a change.
I am sure potential Green voters would love to know who they are actually voting for this time around, will it be Comrade Bradford (a well practised liar) or mad Catherine Delahunty?, either way you owe it to the public to tell them the truth for once.
Vote:April 13th, 2009 at 12:17 pm
Has there been any consideration of not standing anyone and pushing the green candidate? The greens might need a safe seat come 2011, and it solves the Tizard non-issue.
Vote:April 13th, 2009 at 12:18 pm
Sorry chaps, this matters not one jot at the Labour SELECTION process.
Tizard is known as a workshy member of the discredited ‘Old Guard’.
Who knows, she may be packing to go overseas right now?
The Constituency may indeed have been safe, But given all the good feeling and nay euphoria of Key’s first grab at running the show. I think it will be irrelevant who Labour choose.
Labour’s negative campaign about Key being a Neo -Con, money changing, reptile that can’t be trusted is about to come around and smack them straight in their faces.
Total landslide for National, annihalation of the Labour candidate. Who ever gets the selection is really going to wish that they never had their name down on that particular ballot.
Labour are better at being up front, and selecting Tizard round one!!
Vote:April 13th, 2009 at 12:37 pm
big bruv said: If the Greens are going to stand a candidate then you should at least be honest with the voting public and tell them who the new co leader is going to be.
Nominations for selection as the Green candidate for Mr Albert close later this week. Nominations for the Green Co-Leadership don’t close until later, I understand there will be at least 2 nominees as female Co-Leader as two have already declared an intention to stand, and the decision is made at the Green Party AGM on Queen’s Birthday weekend.
So if the Mt Albert byelection is held on 30 May, which it could be, we won’t know who the new Green female Co-Leader is by polling day. It it is later, we will. What’s honesty got to do with it? It is all a matter of timing.
Vote:April 13th, 2009 at 12:49 pm
Tell me this toad – why would Labour voters support the Greens when the Greens have just jumped into the arms of that nice Mr Key? It doesn’t make sense eh
Vote:April 13th, 2009 at 1:11 pm
Inventory2 said: …when the Greens have just jumped into the arms of that nice Mr Key?
That may be the preception the Labour Party and some in the media re trying to create, but it is simply not true.
Vote:April 13th, 2009 at 1:19 pm
“What’s honesty got to do with it?”
Nothing when it comes to the Greens, after all you abused the system to get Red Russ into the house so a little thing like not making the public aware of who they are voting for will seem unimportant to you guys.
Will you be using Jeannette to campaign for the seat Toad?
Vote:April 13th, 2009 at 1:22 pm
From toad’s link:
Which raises the question toad, what strategic genius inside the Greens thought it would be a good idea to sign up to an MOU, knowing full well how it would be spun?
????
Vote:April 13th, 2009 at 1:26 pm
BTW, good to know that someone out there cares about “the planet and its people.”
See, the rest of us humans of course don’t give a toss, it’s only the superior humanity of the Greens that provides the rest of us with such wisdom and insight.
How foolish we all are. Imagine, without you, none of the rest of us would have any idea and never give a thought toward how to best “care for the planet and its people.”
Vote:April 13th, 2009 at 1:27 pm
Whaleoil has cleverly turned a non issue of vote Twyford get Tizard into something the Labour Party is deeply nervous about and they are spending thousands of dollars to see whether this really is a problem. I am afraid Ms Tizard is everything people now dislike about Labour. Privileged, out of touch, bloated with her ample weight suggesting living off the fat of the land etc etc. So she now has a serious image problem, poor woman, and it risks overshadowing the by-election which Labour should win comfortably.
Vote:April 13th, 2009 at 1:43 pm
bruv, we in the Greens can’t make people aware who our Female Co-Leader will be when we don’t know ourselves. And we did not “abuse the system” to get Russel into the House. Two people on the Green list from the 2005 election previously ranked higher than him decided (in Mike Ward’s case, admittedly only after a bit of persuasion) to stand down in Russel Norman’s favour. The Greens did only what the rules permit.
Maybe in the spirit of cross-Party cooperation John Key could appoint Tizard High Commissioner to somewhere and help Labour out by getting her of their list. Fiji perhaps? After all, he was magnanimous enough to support Clark in her bid for the UN job.
[DPF: The Greens only did what the rules permit - just like the Exclusive Brethren did also!]
Vote:April 13th, 2009 at 1:56 pm
Surely the obvious answer for Labour is to stand someone other than Phil Twyford just for the by-election and then give this person a high list placing in 2011 for standing aside in Mt Albert for Twyford to stand as candidate then.
Vote:April 13th, 2009 at 2:15 pm
toad “The Greens did only what the rules permit.”
This is known as “the system”
toad “Two people on the Green list from the 2005 election previously ranked higher than him decided (in Mike Ward’s case, admittedly only AFTER A BIT OF PERSUASION) to stand down in Russel Norman’s favour.”
This is known as “the abuse.” Connect the two and you have “abuse the system” to get Russel into the House.
Vote:April 13th, 2009 at 2:27 pm
DPF said: [DPF: The Greens only did what the rules permit - just like the Exclusive Brethren did also!]
Which is why the Greens supported changing the rules to prevent groups like the Exclusive Brethren doing it again, because it was a threat to democracy. Two people agreeing not to take up list positions because they consider it is in the interests of their Party to not do so is hardly in the same league.
Vote:April 14th, 2009 at 4:46 am
Wait wait wait, Toad called ACT luddite????? Most hilariously hypocritical comment ever. This coming from a party that has its worshippers wanting to create a serf like socialist state based on anti consumerism and hugs. Sheesh.
Vote:April 14th, 2009 at 5:15 am
Sorry David no media inside selection meetings. Mt Albert will be interesting test of Keys decision to repeal the legislation passed last year for out year tax cuts. Must be announced on or before budget day.
[DPF: Pity re media. Nats allow media but no direct quoting of speeches. My guess is tax changes announced in the budget - may be an amendment not a repeal]
Vote:April 14th, 2009 at 6:42 am
Haven’t tax cuts have already been announced?
Never fear though, Lyn and the girls from the substandard/EPMU/AUSA will be door knocking and are bound to swing the voters in favour of Judith.
Vote:April 14th, 2009 at 10:22 am
Or NATIONAL could not stand a candidate and push the greens… that would really throw a spanner in the works! especially so soon after the MOU.
Vote:April 14th, 2009 at 10:31 am
“may be an amendment not a repeal”
“Amendment” being Neville Key’s weasel word for not delivering on what he promised us.
Vote:April 20th, 2009 at 3:27 pm
Look out Mt Albert I here Rusty Kane is coming.. I hear he is going to campaign in the Mt Albert by-election to highlight the reason to dump MMP Twyford and Tizard.. He last run as an Independent for the New Plymouth Seat to help oust long standing local Labour MP Harry Dyunhoven. And made the difference that kept Labour out.. and putting Nationals new candidate Jonathan Young in by only 100 votes. If the vote count between Labour and National is going to be tight as he suspects in the Mt Albert By-Election. He hopes to take enough votes of Labour and the center left to put National in. He is also the leader of his own political party, a ginger group called The People’s Choice Party. I was told it will be the People’s Choice banner he will be campaigning under in the Mt Albert By-Election. Because the party already has a postal address in the electorate at St Lukes. Rusty Kane is one straw Labour needs to look out for.
Vote: