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Anderton post – anyone has a copy Add this story to Scoopit!.

I did a post around 9 pm last night on Jim Anderton and his ipredict price. Somohow Wordpress has deleted the post. Does anyone have a copy in their RSS feed or cache that they can send me so I don’t have to retype it all in?

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This entry was posted on Tuesday, May 19th, 2009 at 9:04 am and is filed under Kiwiblog. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.

6 Responses to “Anderton post – anyone has a copy”

  1. virtualmark (914) Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 9:08 am

    Not sure if Wordpress deleted the post as such, rather than just over-wrote it with your “Blog Bits” post at 10:03 last night. The first 6 or 7 comments on that Blog Bits post are obviously to do with Jimbo the Dinosaur.

  2. Paul Gardner (14) Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 9:13 am

    This is a graph from iPredict for the MP.Anderton stock, which pays out $1 if Jim Anderton announces before 31 December 2009 he will not stand in the next general election.

    Now it is unlikely Anderton will stand in 2011, but most people have thought it is not likely he will make a retirement announcement as early as 2009, as that makes him fairly irrelevant for the rest of the parliamentary term. Late 2010 is when you expect MPs to generally signal their intentions.

    So for the last few months the MP.Anderton stock has been at around 25c – reflecting a 25% probability that he may announce this year.

    But around a fortnight ago, one or more people started buying up MP.Anderton stock. And steadily over the fortnight it has shot up to almost 60c, or 60%.

    I find it almost impossible to believe this is normal movement – especially considering Anderton has made no public indications. This suggests to me that someone with inside knowledge is buying up large to try and make a killing. That is legal incidentially as the idea of a prediction market is to get insider information out into the public.

    So based on the movement in the share price, the only logical explanation is that Anderton has let it be known he will announce his retirement this year. It may even be Anderton who is buying up the shares?

  3. Auberon (431) Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 9:14 am

    DPF, the post was there this morning, but I got a sense, given the aeon it took to load, that the image of Anderton and the graph was causing headaches, which may be why it got wiped.

  4. David Farrar (1308) Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 9:31 am

    Thanks Paul.

  5. Buggerlugs (1609) Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 9:38 am

    Rangi Kemara’s not been poking round your server as well, has he?

  6. martin english (32) Says:
    May 19th, 2009 at 4:21 pm

    Also, there’s the the image to go with the post text :

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