Lee says she expects to come second
May 22nd, 2009 at 2:03 pm by David FarrarNational Party candidate Melissa Lee says second place is the best she can hope for in the upcoming Mt Albert by-election. …
Ms Lee today told Radio New Zealand she expected to lose and hoped she could come second. …
“I think my chances are fairly good. It’s been 63 years in the hands of Labour, so you know I wasn’t expecting to romp in and actually win this,” Ms Lee said.
Asked if she thought she could come second she said she was hoping to.
“It would be really fantastic if I nudge in a little further as well but I am not expecting to win. It was always going to be a hard battle.”
While no doubt truthful, this is a serious error of judgement. A major party candidate should never state that they do not expect to win – well not in a by-election anyway.
If one wants to manage expectations, then you let others do that for you. But again a major party candidate should not ever say they do not expect to win.
There are many reasons for this. To take just a few:
- How the hell do you expect party volunteers, colleagues, and your campaign team to keep campaigning, when you have said you don’t think you can win. This is a winner takes all by-election – there is no party vote up for grabs.
- Just as seriously what message does send to your voters? This can be a seriously self-fulfilling prophecy – National voters will not bother to vote if they think there is no purpose in doing so.
- It effectively concedes despite three weeks to go. The Labour candidate had just himself had two rocky days himself and was showing vulnerabilities. A lot can happen in three weeks.
- It encourages the minor parties to cannibalise your vote – you have said you don’t expect to win, so they will try and grab anti-Labour voters off you with more vigour.
I actually regard this as a bigger blunder than the South Auckland crime remarks. They at least were said in the heat of a public meeting. This was said in a radio interview where some lines should have been pre-prepared. Acceptable lines would be:
- “Labour have held this seat for 70 years and it is a tough challenge, but I don’t think any party can take the voters for granted, and I’m want to make sure they have the chance to elect a National MP”; or
- “This was Labour’s safest seat and not been held by National before, but I want to win the seat and I would never pre-judge what the voters will decide”
There are many ways you can indicate that it is unlikely you will win, without stating you don’t expect to win which is a real no no.
UPDATE: NZPA now report:
National Party candidate for Mt Albert Melissa Lee says she does want to win the by-election, despite earlier saying she was hoping and expecting to come second….
Asked directly if she expected to come second she answered: “yes”.
Ms Lee said she was talking about the media expectation, not her own.
“I am not in this game to lose,” she said.
NZPA put it to her the radio interview er did not discuss media expectation around her chances, but asked her for her own opinion.
“I think it was a case of I am expecting to come second, at least,” Ms Lee said….
It was always going to be a tough battle, but she would not be missing out on spending time with her son if she thought there was no chance of winning.
“I am not putting in all these hours and putting up with media trying to come second, I am not. I am trying to win this damn thing.”
It would have been better if this is what was said initially.
Related posts:
- The numbers in Mt Albert
- Electorate Split Voting Statistics
- Goff lowering expectations for Mana
- Greens and Mt Albert
May 22nd, 2009 at 2:05 pm
She seems very blonde to me.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 2:09 pm
He he bet National are really regretting putting this muppet up. What makes my life even more enjoyable is the Whale got all high and miighty on old Ragiv (sic sorry do not know how to spell his name) saying he should know his place. Apparently knowing your consituancy is kind of important.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 2:13 pm
Mt Albert deserves David Shearer
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 2:13 pm
Maybe she didn’t finish the sentence
Ms Lee today told Radio New Zealand she expected to lose and hoped she could come second in spite of the blatantly biased campaign that the media have been running against National
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 2:16 pm
unlike the Greens they do not manipulate MMP to suit their version of democracy.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 2:19 pm
This is far worse than Lee stating the off ramps were for criminals or whatever. What is National leadership doing with her? Could certain people in National please start talking to each other, not past each other?
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 2:21 pm
“this is a serious error of judgement”
Vote:What a shocking turn of events for Ms Lee… :>
May 22nd, 2009 at 2:22 pm
Well, I’ve just lost a lot of respect for ACT. They would have gotten my vote for this, except for this latest press release from them:
Melissa Lee, despite her verbal gaffes, will now get my vote.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 2:27 pm
Words fail me.
I expected better tactical nous than the recent displays by Melissa.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 2:27 pm
This is much worse than saying she won’t win. She has actually said she hopes to come second – which implies she is fearful she will be beaten by the Greens and ACT – further emphasising the points DPF made.
I am not sure why you have an issue with this presser Pascal. John Boscawen is displaying the type of cut throat spirit that is needed to win a winner takes all by-election. There is no prize for also rans or second place. If you are in, then you should be in to win. If one needs to step on some heads to get to the top so be it.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 2:28 pm
Pascal, what in Boscawen’s press release has offended you? It’s a by-election, where all bets are off and it’s everyone for themselves – Boscawen has every right to use Lee’s gaffe to his advantage.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 2:29 pm
Ravi Musuku is looking better and better in 20/20 hindsight.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 2:35 pm
“Ms Lee today told Radio New Zealand she expected to lose and hoped she could come second in spite of the blatantly biased campaign that the media have been running against National”
Hate to point it out but when a canditdate completely fucks up and the media reports on it that is not bias, that is excactly how it works.
Its like those muppets who said the media was biased against Sarah Palin, they were doing there job pointing out that the woman who had a stastical 1/10 chance of becoming president of the USA thought Africa was a country and that dinosaurs were on earth 3000 years ago.
Saying something you dont want to hear is not bias.
“Melissa Lee, despite her verbal gaffes, will now get my vote.”
Whats wrong with ACT’s call, she has conceded defeat whilst he is still fighting. Good on him.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 2:37 pm
Melissa doesn’t seem cut out for a career in politics.
Sure, she’s a young Asian woman. So she ticks a lot of demographic buttons. But you need more than just helpful demographics if you want to be an effective politician.
We on the right tend to deride Labour for stacking the team with tired old unionists and academics. But the Nats aren’t exactly covering themselves in glory with the talent on display here. Sure, the Nats brought a lot of bright young things into their caucus last November. But they’re there because they rode in on John Key’s coat tails. Most of them didn’t have to face a lot of media scrutiny (Simon Bridges & Nikki Kaye excepted). And we may well find that most of them are all fluff and no steel.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 2:39 pm
What a joke. The best thing she can do now is resign from parliament and let someone else come in – maybe we’ll get a better list MP as well
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 2:41 pm
National leaning voters who very much dislike Labour should think really strongly about voting for Russel Norman now. Why?
1) Melissa Lee is clearly out of the running.
Vote:2) Lots of borderline Greens/Labour voters will now feel safe voting Greens, knowing their vote won’t split the centre-left.
3) It would really piss Labour off losing Mt Albert.
4) The Greens got 3,846 party votes in the 08 election in Mt Albert, Act got 1,227. So Boscawen doesn’t really have a hope of winning it.
May 22nd, 2009 at 2:44 pm
As much as I would really like to see Labour lose Jarbury, I am less inclined to think the Greens having a lifeline seat is a good thing. If they dip below 5% they would be gone – unless they hold Mt Albert – making it even more unlikely Labour would be able to form a government in the medium term.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 2:45 pm
Well – this is what happens when you follow Labour and go for “cultural diversity” rather than brains.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 2:46 pm
I feel very sorry for Melissa, every man and his dog seems to want to have a go at her. Clearly she has received very little guidance and support from the more experienced hands in the National party.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 2:55 pm
National voters giving the Greens a lifeline seat would be like Labour voters doing the same for ACT. It doesn’t make any political sense. If fact, if you recall, Labour was urging its voters in Epsom to support Worth in ’05 to stop Rodney winning the seat.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 2:57 pm
Murray M – that may well be true in terms of lack of support being a factor in recent events. But one does have to ask – should you really need to be coached not to say the things she has said? They are blatantly obvious.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 2:57 pm
I doubt the Greens will have to worry about the 5% threshold. They’re polling pretty well lately. And the Greens are quite different to the left’s version of Act. I don’t think we ever saw an MoU between Labour and Act.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 3:02 pm
She says what she thinks?
Burn the witch!
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 3:03 pm
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=10573871
Ah-ha!
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 3:05 pm
By “this damn thing” does she mean the by-election or the Mt Albert electorate? I wonder what local residents think of being part of a “damn thing”?
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 3:05 pm
Mike Collins – Melissa has said nothing that could possibly offend anybody. She referred to criminals from South Auckland. The inferences with respect to the race of said criminals have been inferred by others.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 3:07 pm
Actually I like the girl. She calls it exactly as she sees it, not the tired old hype and false verbiage that we get from the other candidates….I also think John Boscowan has made a very impressive start to his carreer but surely he is kidding himself and completely deluded if he thinks he is going to beat 10%, and he’s fooling no-one else.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 3:08 pm
I wonder what local residents think of being part of a “damn thing”?
Is that a joke..?
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 3:10 pm
Looking better and better for Russel by the day.
As you say DPF, wavering Labour-Green voters can now vote Green without the fear of National winning the seat. And former National voters, upset with the competence of their candidate, a motorway being bulldozed through their suburb, and the loss of local democracy with the Supershitty can afford to vote Green as a protest.
Come to think of it, Melissa might come third.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 3:15 pm
“Ms Lee said she was talking about the media expectation, not her own.”
Good idea, lie about what you said on a radio interview. That won’t come back to bite you will it?
Vote:Plunket: ‘Are you expecting to come second then?’
Lee: ‘Yes’
May 22nd, 2009 at 3:15 pm
Not only that, she was quoting the head of the local police.
Fuck, I might actually vote and might actually vote for her, just to help counter some of the irrational nonsense attacking Lee from both left and right.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 3:18 pm
This is a subtle “dope the rope” ploy.
The obvious idea is for the Labour voters to assume that Shearer has already won so they don’t bother turning out to vote.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 3:19 pm
“Melissa has said nothing that could possibly offend anybody” – How about offending her own sense of intelligence then? Does she seriously think building a motorway will funnel criminals (irrespective of race) away from an area. I would hope not.
It’s not whether she is offending people that is the issue. I’m sure she is a lovely lady with no ill will toward anyone. The issue you raised was whether she has lacked guidance from others in the party. I was simply saying that she shouldn’t need guidance to avoid saying things which are obviously naive (at best). A fifteen year old with only a fleeting interest in politics would know that it is silly to say that a motorway would channel criminals away – if not for rascism, but for how it could be construed.
Back to the original topic, even Bill English polling in the mid 20s days out from the 2002 election never publically coutenanced the thought National wouldn’t win. Everyone could see that they were doomed but they probably would have been more so had he actually acknowledged what everyone already knew.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 3:19 pm
Jeff83-whatever you want to say about Melissa Lee go ahead.
But Sarah Palin is a poster child for media bias. The MSM within 24 hours of her appointment sent operatives to Wasilla, Alaska to find out anything and everything they could to fire at her. It was a left wing smear campaign of epic proportions and in marked contrast to the love fest that Obama and Biden received during the campaign and are still receiving today.
So poor example in my opinion and very similar to the type of example a leftist blogger like ‘sonic’ might use.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 3:23 pm
I like Melissa Lee she’s contentious stupid and unpredictable… she will make a great MP.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 3:32 pm
I really don’t know what to say. A bit like Melissa Lee herself.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 3:33 pm
Well, it’s not easy establishing context in a media interview. And a lot of that context may be omitted as a lead into the broadcast or article for editorial reasons. And if the interviewer isn’t interested in probing or exploring this context it’s tough to get your point-of-view across.
I’ve had some rather disappointing interviews in the past (one a couple of weeks ago) where there’s been a lot of omission of context and an unjustified sensational angle taken.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 3:37 pm
Melissa is really struggling to make sense.
I really hope that she wins and gives Goff and Co. a bloody nose.
Shearer, the advocate of Mercenaries is perhaps more Right Wing than this lady?
As for South Auckland being a den of iniquity, harbouring hoons, thieves and vagabonds. Yes, ok what did she say that people don’t think?
Funnily enough an extra 200 policemen for the City was seen as a good thing by the majority of the electorate.
And the extra Police were3 seen as being necessary because it is sleepy hollow? Tui Moment.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 3:41 pm
“Well, it’s not easy establishing context in a media interview.”
Oh come on! There’s no context conspiracy with such an explicit answer. And just to add bits to the transcript:
Plunket: ‘What’s the feeling you’re getting? Where do you think you’ll come?’
Lee: ‘I think my chances are fairly good. It’s been 63 years in the hands of Labour so I wasn’t expecting to romp in and win this.’
Plunket: ‘Do you reckon you can come second?’
Lee: ‘Well, I’m hoping to. It’ll be really fantastic if I can nudge it a little bit further as well, but I’m not expecting to win. It was always going to be a hard battle.’
Plunket: ‘Are you expecting to come second then?’
Lee: ‘Yes’
Even in the follow up NZPA article she directly contradicts herself:
Vote:“Ms Lee said she was talking about the media expectation, not her own.
NZPA put it to her the radio interviewer did not discuss media expectation around her chances, but asked her for her own opinion.
“I think it was a case of I am expecting to come second, at least,” Ms Lee said.”
May 22nd, 2009 at 3:41 pm
Chthoniid,
I guess the difference is that you’re not an aspiring political figure, who will live your life in the media glare and so needs to learn how not to give even the impression that you think you’ll lose this election. DPF indicates how a “smart” operator (in the sense of media-savvy, not necessarily intellectually honest) would have dealt with this. The fact Lee wasn’t able to understand what her comment would sound like is just another example of how she wilts in the media spotlight … which is where she needs to shine to prosper.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 3:48 pm
Yes AG, see my post at 2.27.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 3:50 pm
She wants second, but will have to settle for third I’m sorry to say. Shearer will take second place. Boscawen won’t feature at all.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 3:57 pm
I am veering towards the view that she is useless. You do not run to come SECOND. You run to win. If there was time to select another candidate she should simply fold her tent and disappear.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 3:59 pm
things have changed for the worser dudes,
Vote:Melissa Lee and Christine Rankin were Prime Ministerial choices,
now looking bad,
the honeymoon with NZ PM John Key could go sour,
May 22nd, 2009 at 4:01 pm
Mike Collins:
What annoyed me? This:
“Lee Drops Out – Boscawen Still In The Running”
and
“While it is disappointing that Ms Lee has dropped out of the race”
She has done neither of those things. I did not expect that John Boscawen would need to twist the truth to win in Mt Albert. I expected more from a principled party like ACT. This seems more like a Trevor Mallard or Labour with their “They’re going to sell your houses out from underneath you” type of stunt.
She expects she will come second, which might be an entirely reasonable perspective if she ranks herself objectively. And, she is not the most astute of the bunch, that’s for sure.
But she has not dropped out.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 4:08 pm
Chthoniid
“Yes AG, see my post at 2.27.”
Apologies – I’m late on this train.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 4:10 pm
Lee would be a fool to trust Boscawen… hang on…!!
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 4:18 pm
“What annoyed me? This:
“Lee Drops Out – Boscawen Still In The Running”
and
“While it is disappointing that Ms Lee has dropped out of the race”
She has done neither of those things.”
Understand your point and thank you for clarifying. However I have to disagree. It is fair to say with a not very subjective analysis of her statement that she has given up hope of winning and now aspires to coming second. In a winner takes all race – that is the same as dropping out. I don’t blame Boscawen at all for that presser – I actually commend him for it. It isn’t in the slightest dishonest in my opinion. If Lee wanted to avoid her competitors from saying she had dropped out – she shouldn’t have effectively done just that.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 4:20 pm
Fwiw, in the last 2 weeks I have done a TV3 interview, two print-media interviews in NZ, one in France and one RNZ interview. That’s possibly more media glare than many of our aspiring politicians.
Of course, I’m not prime-time material… but I don’t think anyone should under-estimate the challenges of being an interviewee (especially relative novices at it).
And I still think there’s been a lack of tactical nous being shown by Melissa with the media.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 4:37 pm
“the challenges of being an interviewee (especially relative novices at it). ”
Vote:Chthoniid – you are aware of her established role with the media, aren’t you.
She’s hardly a novice. I think she had shallow, crap material to work with.
May 22nd, 2009 at 4:44 pm
@Scott
“The MSM within 24 hours of her appointment sent operatives to Wasilla, Alaska to find out anything and everything they could to fire at her”
Mainstream media sent people to Alaska to find out everything they could about someone no-one outside of Alaska had heard of.
The McCain campaign was damaged not by any particular tidbits they found in Alaska, but by Palin’s inability to handle interviewers’ softball questioning, which has left an enduring image to American voters of someone out of their depth.
It is right to say, though, Palin and Lee both had little experience of sharply focused mediacentric campigning. It’s wrong to compare Lee and Palin for anything else though – they come from different backgrounds and share completely different politics.
Even if Lee doesn’t win, she may benefit from it in the long term, as the best politicians know how to understand defeat and can look at the wider picture.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 4:54 pm
This Sheila is a fucking train wreck!
If the Nat’s learn one lesson from this it is that they should avoid selecting candidates or list members on the basis of their race.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 5:01 pm
“National leaning voters who very much dislike Labour should think really strongly about voting for Russel Norman now”
baw haw haw – A bit like asking who do you dislike morst- Charles Manson or Ted Bundy?
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 5:02 pm
@ Patrick Starr
Ted Bundy had more muscle.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 5:23 pm
As David Farrar says at point 3 : “It effectively concedes despite three weeks to go”.
That is what my press release said.
She also said she never expected to win.
What is worse she then issued a press release denying everything despite it being broadcast, in context, on nationwide radio.
How can you possibly have any credidiblity?
While some National Party supporters may not want to acknowledge it, the only way a centre right candidate will be elected to Mt. Albert is if people vote for myself.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 5:33 pm
“the only way a centre right candidate will be elected to Mt. Albert is if people vote for myself.”
I think you really mean, “there is no way a centre right candidate will be elected to Mt. Albert” …
Cue the outraged howls …
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 5:35 pm
Patrick Starr said: “National leaning voters who very much dislike Labour should think really strongly about voting for Russel Norman now” baw haw haw – A bit like asking who do you dislike morst- Charles Manson or Ted Bundy?
When your own candidate admits she doesn’t have a chance Patrick, you vote tactically. Even though I’m a Green, if I lived in Epsom I would swallow hard and vote for Richard “Conflict of Interest” Worth to try to keep Rodney out so he can’t drag creeps like Garrett into Parliament on his yellow jacket tails.
Nat supporters can do similar – enough votes for Norman to win over Goff’s anointed candidate and the Labour camp will be in disarray for the next two years while the coups are plotted and defended. Good for the Greens, good for the Nats, but bad for Labour.
I’ll admit I’m only in this debate to promote the Greens (and to destabilise either of Labour and National), but it seems to me that if I were a National supporter now Lee has effectively conceded Mt Albert, this would be the clever thing to do.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 5:42 pm
Below are the comments that Lee made that people are taking to mean that she has conceded defeat. The way I read it is that Lee thought she had a good chance of winning, but wasn’t taking for granted a win. She is obviously taking about a tough fight to take a seat that has been with Labour for 63 years. Look particularly at references to expected to come second but “fantastic if I can nudge it a little bit further” and “I am expecting to come second, at least.” Yes her words were a bit careless in that they can be taken to conceeding defeat, but she hasn’t come out and said I am not going to win.
Lee: ‘I think my chances are fairly good. It’s been 63 years in the hands of Labour so I wasn’t expecting to romp in and win this.’
Plunket: ‘Do you reckon you can come second?’
Lee: ‘Well, I’m hoping to. It’ll be really fantastic if I can nudge it a little bit further as well, but I’m not expecting to win. It was always going to be a hard battle.’
Plunket: ‘Are you expecting to come second then?’
Lee: ‘Yes’
Lee “I think it was a case of I am expecting to come second, at least,” Ms Lee said.”
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 5:54 pm
Oh, Hagues, you really are pushing a diarrhoeal turd uphill with a pointed stick with that defence of Lee.
“Well I’m hoping to [come second].” means “I’ve know I’ve stuffed it up very badly, but I hope I don’t come third” (or worse).
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 6:02 pm
I’m not pushing any Greenies uphilll with anything, or trying to defend Lee. I merely pointed out what I took her comments to mean. Maybe I’m wrong and Lee was conceeding, maybe I’m right. Just adding another voice to the conversation.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 6:03 pm
I said it before and I will say it again:
“What an idiot.
Drop her and put someone in who is going to THINK before they blather.”
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 6:06 pm
(ACT New Zealand Mt Albert candidate John Boscawen today reiterated his call for Mt Albert National supporters to support him)
Vote:or you could waste your vote on a number of other candidates.
You would be better to protest vote Rusty Kane he’s from the provinces.. And wants more of Aucklands infrusture money redirected to the provinces where its needed. Where all the other candidates are only focussed on themselves Mt Albert Auckland and pork barrel politics. Auckland maybe the head but the province are the body and heart of the country. The provinces only go to Auckland if they have too. They only want Auckland to have a motorway so they can get in and out faster or pass through it as fast as possible.
May 22nd, 2009 at 6:45 pm
People need to cut this poor woman some slack. Has the National Party got any involvement in her campaign at all? It appears that she is out there on her own, essentially having to make it up on the fly. I think these comments are less a reflection on her abilities (which for a first-time electorate candidate are probably pretty good) and more a reflection on the fact that the National Party isn’t exactly going out of its way to help her win.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 6:46 pm
Where is the National machine?
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 6:51 pm
I think Auckland-based Cabinet Ministers Jonathan Coleman and Paula Bennett are meant to be mentoring her.
Which says something about their ability (or lack thereof) as well.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 6:54 pm
I was asked to help out with letter drops, phone calls etc.
Glad I didn’t bother wasting my time. I would have been considering sending the National Party a bill.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 6:59 pm
I think Melissa is absolutely on the button. She personifies the National party. Policies are made by focus groups rather than following a social philosophy and major decisions are made to favour the few. Understanding the realities of Mr and Mrs Average is outside their understanding. The notion of community is perhaps only understood in rural areas.
Vote:Go Melissa: the Nats dropped you in a hole of their making, and into which they all will tumble in 28 months time. They depend on keeping the Auckland vote on side.
May 22nd, 2009 at 7:38 pm
For the right, this by-election is about candidates raising their profiles for the future through punchy TV soundbites.
ACT candidates have to grab every chance they get. John Boscawen grabbed his with both hands (and a disciplined mouth), and punched above his weight. Lee Drops Out was the wrong headline though.
I do feel sorry for Melissa Lee, as she’s been a fine, controlled broadcaster for years, but the election pressure cooker does funny things.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 7:39 pm
Yes I am aware, that’s why I expected her to have a bit more nous and less naiviety.
Nonetheless, it is an entirely different matter to going from the producer of a show- with its associated control- to going to the other side of the mike or camera. It takes practice to handle media well. Clearly Melissa is not there.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 7:43 pm
She just gives and gives and gives. To Labour.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 8:31 pm
Melissa Lee will get plenty of media coverage from now on. Can she capitalise on that?
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 8:36 pm
I think this is a bit unfair. Reading the in context quotes (posted by garethw @3:41pm), it isn’t that black and white. She says it was always going to be hard to win given it’s been a Labour seat for 60 years, Sean Plunket says “so you expect to come second then.” Lee gave an answer she shouldn’t have – the honest answer “yes”, followed with “I think we can do a little better though” – which means winning.
She should have said “I have a great organisation on the ground, we’re working hard to win”. The bit that is the problem is where she says “yes.” Inexperience, but it isn’t like she came out and said “I’m expecting to come second in this race, don’t be having any higher expectations than that.”
I agree with DPF that it is poor savvy. But I don’t think it is anywhere as bad as some are making out.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 8:47 pm
PaulL said: Inexperience, but it isn’t like she came out and said “I’m expecting to come second in this race…”
What she said was actually worse than that.
Meaning she was hoping to come second, but acknowledging that a lower position than second might be a possibility as well.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 9:10 pm
The majority of readers at the blog (rightly) said that Norman was the most out of place and insignificant MP before the last election. We made fun of him because he was talking bollocks. Suddenly some Nats are now willing to VOTE for the guy if it means to hurt Labour.
And then your own candidate admits she won’t win – giving idiots like Frog and Toad ammunition (or false delusions) that the Greens have a shitshow of winning this.
I said this the other day, John Boscawen was praised by almost everybody on this blog for his damn hard work fighting that horrible EFA. Why now is he not considered a great candidate for Mt Albert? At least he wants to win and he has stood up for all of our values over the last few years. I reckon we get in behind him and give Labour another bad night at the polls.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 9:28 pm
Clint: if this was a naturally centre-right electorate then Boscawen might have a hope. However just look at the 2008 election results on this one, the Greens got 3,846 party votes in the 08 election in Mt Albert, Act got 1,227. Add in discontent over the Super City (which ACT will be blamed for as Rodney’s ramming it through) plus the whole Waterview Connection debacle and Boscawen doesn’t have a hope.
What toad said is true, the only person who can beat Shearer is Russel Norman.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 10:09 pm
Yes it looks like Lee will come third.
Vote:Why did the National party choose such an inept candidate ?
Why have the Natinal party brought Rankin back into the limelight ?
Why have they fucked up big time in the Auckland super City fiasco ?
And the budget to and email leaker come !!!
Woah ho
Time to pull up a chair and watch the ensuing train wreck as the National party starts to feast on itself
May 22nd, 2009 at 10:11 pm
Gee, this thread is fun!
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 10:15 pm
I know Tuija it’s fantastic!
The Don Brash email saga is hilarious too – either National lose credibility by not ordering a proper investigation or they order a proper investigation and WHO KNOWS what might emerge out of it.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 10:21 pm
Melissa Lee is an idiot that needs to start looking for a new village.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 10:32 pm
The Don Brash email saga is hilarious too – either National lose credibility by not ordering a proper investigation or they order a proper investigation and WHO KNOWS what might emerge out of it.
Vote:Yes , even as we speak some National insider or two are quietly shitting themselves.
It all goes to show its a lot harder being in Gov then opposition
May 22nd, 2009 at 10:32 pm
Toad says “When your own candidate admits she doesn’t have a chance Patrick, you vote tactically”……”Nat supporters can do similar – enough votes for Norman to win over Goff’s anointed candidate and the Labour camp will be in disarray for the next two years while the coups are plotted and defended”
Toad – Hell would have to freeze over in the middle of your global warming conspiracy before any Nats I know would sink so low as to vote green.
Don’t you realise that you commies are the BIGGER enemy?
Don’t you realise we enjoy having Goff leading labour?
Lee is struggling against a very bias media, dishonest opponents and battling for a party that couldn’t give a fuck about her.
Vote:She may have said some inappropiate, but truthful things but is doing very well to hold herself against all odds at the moment.
Many people will recognise that
May 22nd, 2009 at 10:42 pm
jarbury said: The Don Brash email saga is hilarious too – either National lose credibility by not ordering a proper investigation or they order a proper investigation and WHO KNOWS what might emerge out of it.
Now, here’s something worth speculating on:
Who was the National Party campaign manager in 2005 and would have had access to everything?
Who received the almost unprecedented elevation to a senior post in John Key’s Cabinet from not having even been in Parliament before the 2008 election?
A reward for a job well done, perhaps? (And I don’t mean the 2005 campaign).
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 11:28 pm
John Boscawen said While some National Party supporters may not want to acknowledge it, the only way a centre right candidate will be elected to Mt. Albert is if people vote for myself.
The only problem there is that you & your cronies are nowhere near the centre. You’re just as bad as Key was before the election, at least he was clever about it. He just made out his party was central – you’re actually saying it.
Vote:May 22nd, 2009 at 11:52 pm
As a voter in this by-election – and one that felt pretty sure how they were going to vote a couple of weeks ago – I can’t help but cringe whenever another gaffe is reported. What a turn of events.
I was in Auckland Central for a couple of elections before the boundary shifted around me. Judith Tizard won there (much to my surprise and disgust) so I guess most inner-city voters are not particularly discerning. Anything is possible in Mt Albert then.
Vote:May 23rd, 2009 at 12:06 am
So where is the well hard Trevor Mallard?
Has Duck Face gone to the Pond?
Must be so stupendous to be a weak school-boy, bully boy.
Come on Trevor, you hit your tormentor in the back of the head. Classy!
If you want a real ruck, just reply in person. Will get the Cameras there and the rest of the Fourth Estate.
What’s it like to be a classic coward bully boy?
Vote:May 23rd, 2009 at 1:18 am
Patrick Starr says:
“Lee is struggling against a very bias media, dishonest opponents and battling for a party that couldn’t give a fuck about her.
She may have said some inappropiate, but truthful things but is doing very well to hold herself against all odds at the moment.
Many people will recognise that”
Damn straight. Were she in my electorate, she’d get the tick.
I’m kind of pissed off Young National didn’t try to derail this racist motion at Auckland Uni (but maybe none are members of the student union?). Seems she is getting no substantive support from anyone in National, in fact I’d put the incompetence displayed over the byelection on par with the team behind bill english at the 2002 election.
It was obvious it would be damn hard to win Mt Albert while canning labour’s extravagant tunnel and putting a more affordable (and more upgradable) motorway in its place; but National should have been strongly behind her pushing the pork barrel angle. They should have given her extensive coaching on how to talk to the media. Instead they don’t even brief her on what the plan is for the bypass. If National is looking to trim its own expenditure due to the recession, please start by sacking the campaign manager for this byelection.
Vote:May 23rd, 2009 at 6:46 am
I hate to agree with Jarbury, I really do. Vote Green. Deny Labour, it will really, really fuck them off.
Vote:May 23rd, 2009 at 6:59 am
Supercity though, its about gassing out the useless lefty greenie numpties infesting aucklands localbody politics. that will be a success.
Vote:May 23rd, 2009 at 7:50 am
I don’t know what would be worse, Green retards thinking that they are the political flavour of the day or Labour winning and continuing their sinking into obscurity. One more Labour MP, a right leaning one is better than a wheelie bin of Greens anyway day. Goff will not win an election as leader so I am comfortable with Shearer doing better than the Greens.
Surely Mt Albert residents are more sensible than to trust Aussie Russ?
Vote:May 23rd, 2009 at 9:21 am
Bloody hell expat, I would rather eat glass than vote for the Greens.
Vote:May 23rd, 2009 at 9:24 am
Jim, you are so right
“I can’t help but cringe whenever another gaffe is reported.’ with the emphasis being on “is reported”.
Melissa Lees sth auckland comment was featured in the NZ Herald 15 times in 8 days . David Shearers ‘racist’ remark about immigrants is yet to appear.
Kinda says a lot about who the media have decided they don’t want in Mt Albert.
I don’t think Lees KOD was her sth ak comment, and neither was it her coming 2nd comment. Lee’s KOD was when Key gave her a vote of no confidence by calling her comments stupid. What leader does that durng an election? he should not have commented but when he publicly castigated her during the election ….. well she may as well have packed her bags at that point
Vote:May 23rd, 2009 at 9:31 am
Surely Mt Albert residents are more sensible than to trust Aussie Russ?
Vote:to which I reply
Surely Auckland residents are more sensible than to trust Rodney Hide?
May 23rd, 2009 at 9:32 am
So why did the National party choose such an inept candidate ?
Vote:May 23rd, 2009 at 9:45 am
A vote for ACT is a vote for green.
Voting for the Green Party is a vote for red.
Vote:May 23rd, 2009 at 9:45 am
Tuija
Watch this interview and tell me if you think this guy is any more competent than Melissa Lee?
Both have told the truth but perhaps the only difference is who the media crucify at their discretion
http://www.3news.co.nz/Video/Politics/tabid/370/articleID/105239/cat/68/Default.aspx#video
Vote:May 23rd, 2009 at 10:06 am
expat said: Supercity though, its about gassing out the useless lefty greenie numpties infesting aucklands localbody politics
Ah, an admisssion from the right of the real purpose of Rodney Hide’s “reforms”, expat. Don’t you get it – a good proportion of the population share left or green philosophies. To gerrymander the electorate and electoral system in an attempt to deny them representation is anti-democratic. In fact, it is fascist – and your use of the term “gassing out” doesn’t do anything to mitigate that perception.
If that’s what you stand for, fine. But I’m sure it is not what the vast number of traditional National Party supporters believe – they believe democratic elections should be a fair contest of values and policies and that representation should reflect votes.
Vote:May 23rd, 2009 at 10:28 am
She’s too honest to be an MP
Vote:May 23rd, 2009 at 10:41 am
Tuija/Robinsod… I would rather trust David Bain with looking after my gun collection than trust anything you say.
Vote:May 23rd, 2009 at 10:43 am
And for all your spin about Lee and Shearer, DPF! Worthless now innit.
Vote:May 23rd, 2009 at 10:57 am
I posted
You replied
Tuija/Robinsod… I would rather trust David Bain with looking after my gun collection than trust anything you say.
Clintheine/Dickhead
Name something thing that has made Rusell untrustworthy ?
I certaininly can with Mr Hide
The fact that you continually assert that I resemble Mr Sod is pathetic he is twice the writer I will ever be
And the David Bain’s gun collection comment ? That says a lot about the size of Clints braincell collection
Vote:May 23rd, 2009 at 11:08 am
This telling the truth business must stop at once! Melissa Lee is bring politicians into good repute. This must not be permitted or Kiwiblog contributors will have nothing to get enraged about.
Vote:May 23rd, 2009 at 12:14 pm
Watch out for Stormin’ Norman – coming through!
Vote:May 23rd, 2009 at 1:23 pm
“Name something thing that has made Rusell untrustworthy ”
Global Warming
Vote:May 23rd, 2009 at 4:20 pm
Global Warming
Vote:hmm tricky one that Paddy, who you guuna believe- some right wing nut job or the majority of the worlds scientific community ?
try again ?
May 23rd, 2009 at 5:03 pm
Twija you loon, why don’t you do your own research rather than relying on the lying mainstream media, who are merely just suckholing propaganda outlets for leftists?
The majority of the world’s scientific community once believed the sun revolved around the earth and jailed those who disagreed.
SURVEY: LESS THAN HALF OF ALL PUBLISHED SCIENTISTS ENDORSE GLOBAL WARMING THEORY; COMPREHENSIVE SURVEY OF PUBLISHED CLIMATE RESEARCH REVEALS CHANGING VIEWPOINTS
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=b35c36a3-802a-23ad-46ec-6880767e7966
Vote:May 23rd, 2009 at 5:24 pm
But reddy:
“The majority of the world’s scientific community once believed the sun revolved around the earth and jailed those who disagreed.
SURVEY: LESS THAN HALF OF ALL PUBLISHED SCIENTISTS ENDORSE GLOBAL WARMING THEORY; COMPREHENSIVE SURVEY”
On your argument, doesn’t this then mean that Global Warming Theory is true, and that AGW proponents are now an unfairly persecuted minority bravely battling to bring the truth to light?
You ARE a confusing creature!
Vote:May 23rd, 2009 at 5:37 pm
“You ARE a confusing creature!”
False allegation, for tacked on to the end, and which you left off in such a typical display of leftist deceit, is the bit about “changing viewpoints”.
Vote:May 23rd, 2009 at 5:43 pm
So it’s changed from being an untrue view held by a majority consensus of scientists to being a true view held by a minority of them? ‘Cause wasn’t that your point about the sun going round the earth and all? Like, whatever the majority of scientists believe isn’t true?
You are a confused creature.
Vote:May 23rd, 2009 at 5:46 pm
Oh, and reddy – why aren’t you out procreating?
My excuse for blogging on a Saturday evening is that I did, and now must pay the price.
Vote:May 23rd, 2009 at 5:47 pm
‘Baiter said: SURVEY: LESS THAN HALF OF ALL PUBLISHED SCIENTISTS ENDORSE GLOBAL WARMING THEORY
You don’t need to shout about it Reddy, we can all understand it in lower case. You’ve linked to a US political blog as your “evidence”. Try searching for the science itself (ie the things that are published in scientific journals), rather than surveys (that we’re not told the methodology of) of scientists (whose names we are mainly not told and whose research papers are not disclosed) that are “surveyed” on a political blog. I’m sure you can find surveys endorsing “creation science” and”flat earth” as well.
That’s the reason I’m proud to be Green, and why I hope Russel will win Mount Albert. It’s because Green politics is evidence-based, instead of pandering to public opinion, prejudice, and ideology.
Vote:May 23rd, 2009 at 6:01 pm
“Cause wasn’t that your point about the sun going round the earth and all? Like, whatever the majority of scientists believe isn’t true?”
The point was that in the past, majorities have been just as dismissive of views that countered there own, and have later found those views they defended so desperately to be incorrect, and themselves in the minority.
Toad’s dogmatic rubbish is a good example, and when he wakes up, you’ll see the strangely turned about event of a toad having to eat crow.
Vote:May 23rd, 2009 at 6:19 pm
Redbaiter said: Toad’s dogmatic rubbish is a good example…
Um, who’s being dogmatic here RB? My arguments are based on science. Yours are based on an ideology that doesn’t want the science to be true because if you accepted the science is true you would be forced to re-think the ideology. Just like the flat-earthers and the creation “scientists”.
I’ve linked to this before, in the context of Rodney Hide’s climate science denial, but in case you missed it, here it goes again.
Vote:May 23rd, 2009 at 6:39 pm
“My arguments are based on science.”
Pest controllers in Hawkes Bay have rejected a suggestion by Green Party co-leader Jeanette Fitzsimons that the ashes of dead possums could control the menace. The control method known as “possum peppering” was first proposed in the 1920s by philosopher Rudolf Steiner. It involves burning possum testicles and other organs into ashes, diluting them in a homoeopathic manner and spraying forests with the solution. Supporters of the idea believe that it will make possums infertile.
..and wasn’t it that fruitcake Kedgely who wanted to ban water??
You think the morons of Mt Albert are that dense they’ll ever vote for an Aussie communist from the Watermelon Party its another example of the triumph of irrational belief over science.
Vote:May 23rd, 2009 at 6:45 pm
Redbaiter said: ..and wasn’t it that fruitcake Kedgely who wanted to ban water??
No, it was Nat MP Jacqui Dean. In Sue Kedgley’s case, it was something that was written by a temporary relief Executive Assistant that unfortunately went out without Sue’s knowledge.
Vote:May 23rd, 2009 at 6:58 pm
Meanwhile
Vote:Lee says she expects to come second
Unbelievable
May 23rd, 2009 at 7:11 pm
I’m glad expat has seen the light and realises that the smartest thing for National-leaning people to do is vote Greens.
Vote:May 23rd, 2009 at 7:22 pm
so tell me again Joshua, why is it a smart thing for National-leaning people to vote Greens?
pfffft…..snigger snigger…..BAW HAHA LMFAO
Vote:May 23rd, 2009 at 8:10 pm
Same as what I said yesterday:
Vote:May 23rd, 2009 at 9:40 pm
no Joshua – why is it a ‘smart’ thing ?
Yiou honeslty believe we want to really piss Labour off by throwing the greens a life line? – (go back to your joint)
Vote:May 23rd, 2009 at 10:20 pm
Patrick Starr said: so tell me again Joshua, why is it a smart thing for National-leaning people to vote Greens?
Because, Patrick, you and I (and jarbury) are activists. We don’t see things the way most voters do.
I can’t quote you sources because this is from confidential public opinion survey information, but I can tell you that approximately 30% of National Party voters would prefer the Green Party as National’s coalition partner.
Scary for those of you out there on the hard anti-environment right, isn’t it, but I’m afraid that’s the way the public sees it.
Vote:May 23rd, 2009 at 10:29 pm
“but I can tell you that approximately 30% of National Party voters would prefer the Green Party as National’s coalition partner”
Toad, you are fucken dreaming. What was the public opinion survey question? – do you care about the environment – or do you want the Greens as your coalition partner? – yeah, I’ll bet it was some obscure question
I also think you’re confused about why so many Nats supporters detest the Greens “hard anti-environment right” – nothing to do with anti environment, but everything to do with communists pretending to be environmentalists
Vote:May 23rd, 2009 at 10:39 pm
Patrick, parrot the line as often as you want, but hardly anyone believes it. Hell, the Greens even have a Memorandum of Understanding to advance shared poliy interests with the National-led governement. You think they would have done that if they thought the Greens “communists”? You’re pretty much out on your own (oh, and with ‘Bater and gd and a few others like Ian Wishart) on that conspiracy theory.
If John Key and Bill English believed your line, do you really think they would have ever agreed to a MoU? Actually, if they had believed your line, they probably would have passed legislation to ban the Green Party by now – under urgency, like they allowed Rodney Hide to do with the legislation to take away the local democracy of people living in the Auckland region.
Vote:May 23rd, 2009 at 10:42 pm
These are the dates that Kiwiblog posted since 14th APRIL on Mount ALBERT
Vote:see if you can spot the time when Melissa Fucked up
MAY
22
19
14 x 2
12 x3
11 x 2
9
7×2
6×2
5×2
4×4
3×2
2
1
APRIL
30
29
28
28 x4
27
26
25
24
23
23
22
21 x2
20 x2
17
16 x 2
14 x 3
May 23rd, 2009 at 10:47 pm
How did a post about melissa lee admitting defeat somehow fool redbaiter in to thinking it was a climate change discussion?
Vote:May 23rd, 2009 at 10:48 pm
I am a Green but not a communist
Vote:May 23rd, 2009 at 10:49 pm
more of a Marxist actually
Vote:May 23rd, 2009 at 11:08 pm
Tuija said: These are the dates that Kiwiblog posted since 14th APRIL on Mount ALBERT see if you can spot the time when Melissa Fucked up
Well done Tuija, 31 fuckups by Melissa coinciding with 29 Kiwiblog posts about Mt Albert. I’ve checked, and I think you’ve got it pretty much right.
Pity we can’t use the html table tag here though – would have made your post much more concise.
Vote:May 24th, 2009 at 12:11 am
Good morning! The thread goes on!
Give Russel more muscle!
Vote:May 24th, 2009 at 9:01 am
These are the dates that Kiwiblog posted since 14th APRIL on Mount ALBERT
Vote:see if you can spot the time when Melissa Fucked up
MAY
22
19
14 x 2
12 x3
11 x 2
9
7×2
6×2
5×2
4×4
3×2
2
1
APRIL
30
29
28
28 x4
27
26
25
24
23
23
22
21 x2
20 x2
17
16 x 2
14 x 3
May 24th, 2009 at 9:02 am
No can’t format it any better
Vote:May 24th, 2009 at 9:24 am
“I am a Green but not a communist”
are you telling us you are on the Green list? If not then how is what you are relevant to my observation?
Vote:May 24th, 2009 at 4:24 pm
1) The national voters are not going to en-masse vote in their worst enemy even if it does score some points against Labour. I doubt if more than a trivial amount of people really hate labour that much.
2) Lees chances of winning Mt Albert are about what they were before she was anounced as the candidate – somwhere between 0 and 1%… which is only a million times better than the greens chances.
But we all know the greens are there just for the national publicity.
Act on the other hand has exactly 0% chance.
Vote:May 26th, 2009 at 6:07 am
GNZ – John has done well for the right and deserves better. Mt Albert might not be the best place for him to shine but at least he will walk away from this looking better than Wussel does – who still has done nothing significant in his short painfully useless political career.
Vote:May 26th, 2009 at 6:09 am
What’s wrong with Ms Lee’s comments is assuming a By-election is purely about party politics. It isn’t, or rather shouldn’t be – especially this one, where the outcome will not change the government.
The main thrust of any would be Mt Albert MP’s campaign, should be what the people of Mt Albert get for an MP who will serve the interests of the constituency. Forget party policies for a minute and focus on **providing a service to Mt Albert**.
Any flavour MP could have it if they campaign to do just that. What did HC ever do for Mt Albert while MP? Surely she was too busy being top-dog to *really* serve Mt Albert (actually I think she was probably astute enough to serve Mt Albert quite faithfully – knowing who actually provided her with her powerbase, but it’s an angle worth going for).
So now’s the chance to show Mt Albert what a local MP without PM duties can do for them – Melissa should be claiming she will be there at every Transit meeting with residents about the proposed motorway, will campaign for them to ensure the design fulfills the needs of nearby residents so that property prices rise and not fall from the development (better access to transport links tends to result in increased value of properties), etc etc. – even badgering her MP colleagues in Parliament that are in charge of Transportation “working on the inside” for them. An MP in opposition would get less done for them etc. There are many ways to turn this campaign – but it starts from focusing on the needs of the local electorate and standing to be their champion in Parliament.
Focus always on the positives, and what she can do for them. Party politics as a basis for argument for how to vote should be relegated to the dustbin for this campaign.
my 2c
Vote: