Can Norman beat Lee?

June 10th, 2009 at 9:56 am by David Farrar

The Herald reports that thinks he can beat :

The One News Colmar Brunton poll on Sunday gave Labour’s David Shearer a 38-point lead over National’s Melissa Lee.

Dr Norman was six points behind Ms Lee in the poll of 500 residents which had a 4.4 per cent margin of error.

That is not a very helpful statement. The 4.4% margin of error is for a result of 50%. Lee got 15% and Norman got 9%. The margin of error for each (at 95% confidence) is 3.2% and 2.5%.

So what is the probability that Norman actually was ahead of Lee? I have a spreadsheet that calculates these things and it is only 0.21%.

Of course things may change from when the poll was done.

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17 Responses to “Can Norman beat Lee?”

  1. Murray (8,847 comments) says:

    Well hes got a slight weight advantage but Lee is wirey and may have some moves.

    If it goes past the third round my moneys on a points win for Lee so Norman will need to look to landing some early hits and go for a KO.

    Apparently hes got more “muscle”.

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  2. mike12 (183 comments) says:

    Their poll had Lee winning the seat for some strange reason. Combine this with the Muss trying to steal votes off Dave ‘Black water” Shearer and Melissa has an outside show :-)

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  3. Christopher (425 comments) says:

    Statistical question: David, is there much evidence to support the notion that the samples from these polls are actually normally distributed?

    I mean, obviously if you take enough samples then the central limit theorem applies, but I’m always so wary of the assumptions these polls seem to make based on such relatively small sample sizes.

    [DPF: Generally political polls have a pretty good track record as being good representations. But there are many things pollsters can do wrong to get a bad sample, so they are far from infallible]

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  4. Countess of Cleavage (27 comments) says:

    Poor wee Melissa.
    She so sweet when you first see her , but what comes out of her mouth makes you think of some school girl- and not Dio either.
    It all goes to show, all the media training in the world cant make a lady, that requires a good french or swiss finishing school.

    But Ive all ways said we in the National party dont do identity politics, in my day it was called flavour of the month. It ends up so quickly as last months look, like polka dot hats for ladies day at the races.
    So even if she comes third , it will be a triumph for her personally, very good to set the ground for this early
    . We cant have any of this reflecting back on those that chose her.
    Those that know horse breeding would never put some flighty filly up for a group 1 race.
    It could ruin your reputation and no one would send their best stallions any more, all you end up with would be randy old goats

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  5. Murray (8,847 comments) says:

    “It all goes to show, all the media training in the world cant make a lady”

    Yeah we can see that troll.

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  6. toad (3,674 comments) says:

    That poll was partially pre-Budget and entirely pre-Worth revelations, so I’d suggest things may have already changed by the time it was released.

    What’s more, it shows Lee has no chance, so people who support Green policies may would have voted Labour for Shearer it were close will now feel free to vote for Norman. Similarly, some who were polled as voting for Lee may well defect to Boscawen or Norman now they know she has no chance.

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  7. Murray (8,847 comments) says:

    Shearer is a National man anyway isn’t he toad.

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  8. Simon (764 comments) says:

    Will Normann pick up the Mt Albert Labour / BNP vote? The Greens are inward looking enough and just like the BNP keen on so called indigenous rights they probably should go for it.

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  9. journo (11 comments) says:

    MetVUW (http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/) shows a very wet Saturday is likely.

    This could affect voting patterns. Time for a mega KFC order, perhaps?

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  10. Redbaiter (13,197 comments) says:

    Mellissa’s problem is she has no idea other than that she can do socialism better.

    The Nats are a decade behind the public mood, as elections in Europe show.

    Replace her with a Conservative.

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  11. Murray (8,847 comments) says:

    Yeah, like Shearer.

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  12. backster (2,185 comments) says:

    Countess of Cleaveage……..Troll exposed. She is really Goff’s Indian Honey Trap.

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  13. side show bob (3,660 comments) says:

    Will Wussel beat Lee? doubt it, Wussel would have trouble beating himself.

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  14. jarbury (464 comments) says:

    MJ, I think she’s have to work about 103 hours a day to get paid that low.

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  15. Tuija (218 comments) says:

    How times change

    But at this stage what I think it shows is that yes it is possible National could win the seat with a very narrow 250 vote majority, but more likely Labour holds on with 3,000 or so votes.

    Lee struggling to get second eh ? who would have thought?

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