Comments on: Can Norman beat Lee?

By: Tuija

Tuija — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 04:04:58 +0000

How times change

But at this stage what I think it shows is that yes it is possible National could win the seat with a very narrow 250 vote majority, but more likely Labour holds on with 3,000 or so votes.

Lee struggling to get second eh ? who would have thought?

By: jarbury

jarbury — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 03:45:14 +0000

MJ, I think she’s have to work about 103 hours a day to get paid that low.

By: mjanderson

mjanderson — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 03:16:08 +0000

Apparently Lee only gets paid $2 an hour!

What happened to minimum wage laws? Did National abolish them under urgency too?

By: side show bob

side show bob — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 07:42:37 +0000

Will Wussel beat Lee? doubt it, Wussel would have trouble beating himself.

By: mjanderson

mjanderson — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 04:51:19 +0000

It is rather trivial analysing sample statistics down as far as the margins of errors cross.

As we know samples obviously only give the representative outcome of a population – therefore the bigger margins are what should be used for any kind of statistical analysis or comments on predicted outcomes.

To add my 2c, I believe Russel will beat Melissa

By: backster

backster — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 01:39:00 +0000

Countess of Cleaveage……..Troll exposed. She is really Goff’s Indian Honey Trap.

By: Murray

Murray — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 00:36:15 +0000

Yeah, like Shearer.

By: Redbaiter

Redbaiter — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 00:02:46 +0000

Mellissa’s problem is she has no idea other than that she can do socialism better.

The Nats are a decade behind the public mood, as elections in Europe show.

Replace her with a Conservative.

By: journo

journo — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 23:52:45 +0000

MetVUW (http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/) shows a very wet Saturday is likely.

This could affect voting patterns. Time for a mega KFC order, perhaps?

By: Simon

Simon — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 23:42:34 +0000

Will Normann pick up the Mt Albert Labour / BNP vote? The Greens are inward looking enough and just like the BNP keen on so called indigenous rights they probably should go for it.

By: Murray

Murray — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 23:40:08 +0000

Shearer is a National man anyway isn’t he toad.

By: toad

toad — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 23:37:35 +0000

That poll was partially pre-Budget and entirely pre-Worth revelations, so I’d suggest things may have already changed by the time it was released.

What’s more, it shows Lee has no chance, so people who support Green policies may would have voted Labour for Shearer it were close will now feel free to vote for Norman. Similarly, some who were polled as voting for Lee may well defect to Boscawen or Norman now they know she has no chance.

By: Murray

Murray — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 23:26:45 +0000

“It all goes to show, all the media training in the world cant make a lady”

Yeah we can see that troll.

By: Countess of Cleavage

Countess of Cleavage — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 22:53:59 +0000

Poor wee Melissa.
She so sweet when you first see her , but what comes out of her mouth makes you think of some school girl- and not Dio either.
It all goes to show, all the media training in the world cant make a lady, that requires a good french or swiss finishing school.

But Ive all ways said we in the National party dont do identity politics, in my day it was called flavour of the month. It ends up so quickly as last months look, like polka dot hats for ladies day at the races.
So even if she comes third , it will be a triumph for her personally, very good to set the ground for this early
. We cant have any of this reflecting back on those that chose her.
Those that know horse breeding would never put some flighty filly up for a group 1 race.
It could ruin your reputation and no one would send their best stallions any more, all you end up with would be randy old goats

By: Christopher

Christopher — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 22:50:38 +0000

Statistical question: David, is there much evidence to support the notion that the samples from these polls are actually normally distributed?

I mean, obviously if you take enough samples then the central limit theorem applies, but I’m always so wary of the assumptions these polls seem to make based on such relatively small sample sizes.

[DPF: Generally political polls have a pretty good track record as being good representations. But there are many things pollsters can do wrong to get a bad sample, so they are far from infallible]

By: mike12

mike12 — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 22:35:01 +0000

Their poll had Lee winning the seat for some strange reason. Combine this with the Muss trying to steal votes off Dave ‘Black water” Shearer and Melissa has an outside show

By: Murray

Murray — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 22:12:29 +0000

Well hes got a slight weight advantage but Lee is wirey and may have some moves.

If it goes past the third round my moneys on a points win for Lee so Norman will need to look to landing some early hits and go for a KO.

Apparently hes got more “muscle”.