Iran
June 17th, 2009 at 7:55 am by David FarrarThe protests against the disputed election have spread to New Zealand. For some Iranians Twitter has been their way around the unprecedented clampdown on the Internet and cellphones. Helpful people keep publishing proxy servers and the like there not blocked by the authorities.
There appears to be some bending by the regime:
Meanwhile, Iran’s top legislative body said it was ready to carry out a partial recount of votes.
The offer by the Guardian Council for a targeted tally – from specific voting sites where fraud has been alleged – is the first direct action by authorities to address claims of irregularities by opponents of Ahmadinejad.
Any recount must allow for independent verification. Also the chain of custody of the ballot papers is crucial – there must be a way to verify they are the correct ballot papers for that area, and that they represent the full sample.
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- Iran next?
June 17th, 2009 at 7:57 am
Lots of rumours floating about. Latest one I heard was that Rafsanjani was in motion to oust the Supreme Leader Khamanei. Take with a grain of salt…
Vote:June 17th, 2009 at 7:57 am
Are we going to hold the USA to this same, high standard in future Presidential elections? After all, they have a regime noted for its ability to rig polls, both domestically and abroad.
Vote:June 17th, 2009 at 8:44 am
“After all, they have a regime noted for its ability to rig polls, both domestically and abroad.”
that’s why you never see the Republicans concede the White House to the Democrats.
Vote:June 17th, 2009 at 8:44 am
Billy Bonkers is right for a change, Obama out! Obama out! Obama out! Obama out!
Vote:June 17th, 2009 at 9:05 am
It appears likely that Iran is in for a period of real instability.
Vote:Thirty years of revolution has seen no material improvement in the lifestyle of Iranians. Fundamentalist populism will only go a small way to satisfy the needs of a very divided nation- a Farsi nation not an Arab nation. More Persian than Islamic.
Iran’s past is huge. The old ruins of Persepolis sacked by Alexander the Great in 335BC just show you the power and intellect of ancient Persia,
Iran is now faced with the prospect of disappearing into a Saudi Arabian type feudalism or becoming more a place like Turkey.
What should concern us is that as one Iranian guide told me,”Iran is floating on a sea of oil”. Their reserves are massive and have implications for energy prices into the future.
Remember also, the Gulf of Hormuz carries about 70% of the worlds oil exports. Any blockade could send the world into a spin- nuclear or not.
Any removal of the clerics in Iran does not help in the orderly running of a highly influential state in the powder key Mid East.
June 17th, 2009 at 9:25 am
“Any removal of the clerics in Iran does not help in the orderly running of a highly influential state in the powder key Mid East.”
But possibly the continuation of the Clerical regime will just make its demise even messier.
The collapse of tyrannies comes in many colours from the bloodshed and chaos of Yugoslavia and Iraq to the relative quiet of Franco and Pinochet. The one ingredient that makes the outlook bleak is if there’s large scale ethnic/religious tensions that a tyranny disguises/exploits. That was the case in Yugoslavia and Iraq. Not so in Chile and Spain.
Iran seems to be a bit in-between – there are quite a few small ethnic groups on the periphery that the regime has become more inclined to demonise as things go sour.
Vote:June 17th, 2009 at 10:26 am
the events in Iran are good very good the only way to effectively overthrow nutbars is by internal unrest leading to revolution.
Think the Berlin Wall. Power to the good citizens of Iran Throw out the evil fundementalist and take control over the pollies.
Just like we need to do in NZ
Vote:June 17th, 2009 at 11:01 am
The size of the protests have now reached a critical mass
This can only go two ways now
An end to the fascist structure of the Islamic Republic (probably in all but name) or a Tiananmen Square type massacre.
There are three factors that will probably determine the outcome
The income of the country (relatively high – in the reformers favour)
The urbanisation of the country (relatively high – in the reformers favour)
The nastyness of the regime (relatively high – in the regimes favour)
Personally, I am hoping for it to end similarly to the Romanian revolution of 1989
Vote:June 17th, 2009 at 11:02 am
Makes no sense that the theocracy would want to encourage instability. I suspect what we are seeing is a military overthrow of the country, Ajmedinajad is the dominant faction in military’s man and if goes down they will lose all the positions of power in the bureaucracy.
Vote:Did they even bother to count the votes?
Not a good portent in a region which is already to most stuffed up already.
June 17th, 2009 at 11:07 am
>>Personally, I am hoping for it to end similarly to the Romanian revolution of 1989
Actually I should clarify in case anybody takes it that I mean that I want the regime to open fire on the protesters. That is not what I want.
Vote:June 17th, 2009 at 12:37 pm
Emmess,
Vote:Careful what you wish for. Those who take over may not be any nicer than those already in power.
June 17th, 2009 at 12:47 pm
I’ll take my chances
Vote: