June 2009 Polls
July 28th, 2009 at 12:00 pm by David Farrar
Not a big change to the polls in June. I’ve just put out the June polling newsletter that has details of poll in NZ, Australia, UK, US and Canada. You can subscribe to it at this page.
Over the last six weeks or so Obama has fallen from a net positive rating of +28% to +14%. -14% from last month) with 55% (-6%) approving and 41% (+8%) disapproving. He now has (based on the average of all public polls) an approval rating of 55% and disapproval of 41%.
Gallup have been polling since WWII and allow you to compare Presidents at the same stage of their presidency. At Day 171 this is how the post WWII Presidents ranked:
1. Truman 82%
2. Johnson 74%
3. Eisenhower 73%
4. Kennedy 72%
5. Carter 67%
6. Bush GHW 66%
7. Nixon 65%
8. Reagan 56%
9. Bush GW 56%
10. Obama 55%
11. Clinton 41%
12. Ford 39%
Now to be fair to Obama, the higher ratings tended to be the earlier Presidents, but nevertheless it shows the challenges ahead for him.
Related posts:
- Presidental Approval Comparison
- Obama approval nine months in
- Public Polls February 2009
- June public polls
July 28th, 2009 at 12:04 pm
That thar media was much different in the earlier days. The Senate and House approval rates are very interesting though.
Vote:July 28th, 2009 at 12:06 pm
Looks like the centre-left vote is a fairly steady 40% and that has been fairly steady for some time. BUT where is Goff going to get the other 5-10% without the Maori Party? He can get some of it in due course from National. But in the last decade Labour has never got above 40% and probably never will. The left vote seems to move from Labour to the Greens and back.
Vote:July 28th, 2009 at 1:02 pm
You’d have thought Mr Smrt would be doing much better, considering all of the press adulation.
It’s looking even worse for Mr Goff though. Labour’s support is going up (probably disgruntled Labour supporters reluctantly coming back into the fold) but National’s won’t go down.
Vote:July 28th, 2009 at 1:15 pm
I wonder whether the speed of the media cycle is the driver of the shorter “honeymoon”. My hypothesis is that negative media moves much faster, and in general the media moves faster, today than in the past. I’m imagining a 1960s world where the news cycle is weeks long, v’s the current world where you can go from gaffe to front page news in about 2 hours flat.
Vote:July 28th, 2009 at 1:31 pm
“where you can go from gaffe to front page news in about 2 hours flat.” or bypass the front page entirely and go straight to Twitter in a matter of seconds with no intervention from the so-called MSM at all. Direct from eye witness to reader.
Vote:July 28th, 2009 at 1:50 pm
Saw a bit of breakfast TV, Paul Henry was interviewing a financial adviser in New York. Henry asked this guy to rate Mac daddy’s handling of the finical crisis, this guy replied 7 or 8 out of 10. Bloody hell I thought, maybe Mac daddy does now what he is doing. Then Henry thanked the man and said such and such was ABC news financial journalist, about says it all really. Mos well ask the pope what he thinks the best religion is, his answer would probably be no less bias.
Vote:July 28th, 2009 at 2:11 pm
Interesting list. An amazing drop for Obama – just six months ago he was on top of the world.
Truman is fascinating – by the time he departed he was among the most unpopular presidents of all time. History has been kind to him. Carter went downhill as well and stayed down. But Clinton, after a very rocky start (he was already known as ‘Clinoccio’ by May 1993) won re-election in 1996 against a weak Republican candidate and the economy took off, and he departed with high ratings.
So these things will change.
But mark my words: unless Obama’s policy takes a significiant u-turn he will mentioned by historians in the same breath as Buchanan, Hoover and Harding.
Vote:July 28th, 2009 at 2:17 pm
Very true, side show bob. What goes up a little, down a lot, up a little, down a lot? The US economy for the next ten years. What goes down, down, down, down? The level of trust people have for journalism.
Vote:July 28th, 2009 at 2:49 pm
“Then Henry thanked the man and said such and such was ABC news financial journalist, about says it all really. Mos well ask the pope what he thinks the best religion is, his answer would probably be no less bias.”
Yes, ABC-Disney. That bastion of liberal thought and propaganda.
Vote:July 28th, 2009 at 3:03 pm
Obama is doing even worse in the Rassmussen Poll.
That gives him a negative rating of -10 today, down from -11 yesterday.
But he has suffered a significant plunge in support in recent weeks.
the MSM certainly have much catching up to do with its reportage on the One.
But I did note some coverage from the BBC and CNN on this last week.
Obama’s radical socialism and his rush to get things done is behind his tumbling support. Amercians are waking up to the disaster he is.
It does contrast with the gentility of John key, who sometimes might be seen to be too soft, but his methods do seem to be working.
There again, we do have Phil Goff to thank for National’s strong ratings and all those long years of Helen Clark, when anything but Helen will do.
Vote:July 28th, 2009 at 3:41 pm
Obama has crippled the US economy.
Future generations will be paying for his mistakes….
Maybe he thought there were pixies making money?
Vote:July 28th, 2009 at 3:50 pm
@wreck he knows where the money is coming from – the real and virtual printing presses are running 24/7.
Vote:July 28th, 2009 at 3:53 pm
“Obama is doing even worse in the Rassmussen Poll.”
A polling organization associated with someone as ideological as Scott Rasmussen, who is intent on pushing his right-wing Christian conservatism should not be taken seriously, no matter what the topics or issues that Rasmussen is polling on.
[DPF: Typical shoot the messenger. According to Wikipedia "He was rated the most accurate pollster for the 2008 Presidential Election". You should judge a poling company on the accuracy of their polls, the strength of their questions and methods. Not on whether you agree with their personal views]
Vote:July 28th, 2009 at 4:03 pm
B Hussein Messiah Obama is looking more and more like a one term POTUS.
He seems to be going down the Jimmy Carter road, while the public still like the man (god knows why) they hate his policies.
Vote:July 28th, 2009 at 4:06 pm
“Obama has crippled the US economy. ”
He didn’t break it’s leg. But the jury is still wondering what the crutches are made of.
Vote:July 28th, 2009 at 4:15 pm
Hey Kap, Rasmussen was the most accurate pollster for the 2006 and 2008 US Elections, so he’s more trustworthy on these matters than you are.
Using the same logic, Gallup and Zogby should be disregarded for constantly oversampling Democrats all the time, along with the China Daily-Worker’s World Weekly polls you probably peruse.
Vote:July 28th, 2009 at 6:49 pm
Kapital
You’re sounding pretty partisan yourself mate. Like many lefties – you never let the TRUTH get in the way of ideology! For the record – Fordham University Pol Sci Dept surveyed and then ranked for accuracy all the major US pollsters for the 2008 election cycle as follows:
1. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
2. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
3. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
4. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*
5. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
5. ARG (10/25-27)*
6. CNN/Opinion Research (10/30-11/1)
6. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
7. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
8. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
9. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
10. FOX News/Opinion Dynamics (11/1-2)
11. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
12. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)
13. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
14. ABC/Washington Post (10/30-11/2)
15. Marist College (11/3)
16. CBS (10/31-11/2)
17. Gallup (10/31-11/2)
18. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
19. CBS/NY Times (10/25-29)
20. Newsweek (10/22-23)
The reason why Rasmussen is so accurate I hear you ask? Because they poll LIKELY voters vs just registered voters or adults over 18 as the other polls do. They get the party identifications pretty close to spot on. The big MSM polls routinely over sample Democrats – that’s why they get the results wrong.
Rasmussen was also the most accurate pollster in the Senate, House and Gubernatorial races and has been the most consistently accurate pollster for the last 3 election cycles in the US. You can rant about Scott Rasmussen’s personal beliefs all you want – you cant fault the professionalism and accuracy of his work ….unless the results of his work rain on the parade of the anointed Messiah!
Once middle America got to see his true radical inner socialist at work, it was only a matter of time before they recoiled in horror with buyers remorse. Obama campaigned as an eleoquent and rather unthreatening centerist. Had he governed as one, he would’ve avoided some of the policy pratfalls that now bedevill his popularity. America is a mildly centre-right country – stray too far from that political centre of gravity and you’ll be in trouble.
Vote:July 28th, 2009 at 6:56 pm
Thanks everyone for the defence of the rRassmussen Poll.
Vote:It is the poll I refer to most over at the Fairfacts Media Show, if only because it has a new presidential tracking poll everyday.
It is interesting to see Obama rating well below Bush at this stage in his presidency.
I can’t think why Bill Clinton was so unpopular though.
July 28th, 2009 at 6:57 pm
7. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
8. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
13. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
14. ABC/Washington Post (10/30-11/2)
16. CBS (10/31-11/2)
17. Gallup (10/31-11/2)
18. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
19. CBS/NY Times (10/25-29)
20. Newsweek (10/22-23)
If journalists were honest, this poll would be deeply embarrasing. But for them, this is just part of the job.
Vote:July 28th, 2009 at 7:06 pm
Fairfax Media
Vote:Clinton veered to the left early on like Obama – gays in the military and Hillary was trying to ram socialised medicine down America’s throats. Clinton’s popularity plummetted and the Dems lost the House and Senate in the huge swing to the GOP. History is close to repeating itself – Clinton’s majorities in Congress were very similar to Obama’s. He swung back to the centre in ’93 and actually signed and enacted some pretty centre right laws (eg ending open ended welfare entitlement) with a heavily GOP Congress and recovered his popularity (won re-election easily in 94 – thanks to Perot splitting the right again).