Final Referendum Result

August 25th, 2009 at 1:54 pm by David Farrar
  • Enrolled Voters: 3,002,068
  • Votes Cast: 1,684,402 (56.1% of enrolled)
  • Invalid Votes: 1,685 (0.1% of enrolled) – unreadable etc
  • Valid Votes: 1,682,717
  • Informal Votes: 10,421 (0.6% of valid votes) – no indication of vote
  • Yes Votes: 201,541 (12.0% of valid votes)
  • No Votes: 1,470,755 (87.4% of valid votes)

Incidentally I have run the results through my margin of error calculator as it it were a poll. If one assumes those who did not vote would vote the same as those who did vote, then the margin of error for the no vote was +/- 0.022%.

The Election Results Website usefully now has a useful excel spreadsheet of the votes per electorate.

Lowest Turnout

  1. Tāmaki Makaurau 34.2%
  2. Hauraki-Waikato 34.4%
  3. Ikaroa-Rāwhiti 36.1%
  4. Waiariki 36.6%
  5. Te Tai Hauāuru 37.4%

Highest Turnout

  1. Bay of Plenty 66.8%
  2. Coromandel 66.2%
  3. Rodney 66.1%
  4. Waitaki 65.9%
  5. Selwyn 65.2%

Highest Informal Votes

  1. Wellington Central 2.02%
  2. Rongotai 1.23%
  3. Ohariu 1.15%
  4. Dunedin North 1.12%
  5. Auckland Central 1.10%

Highest Yes Votes

  1. Wellington Central 36.0%
  2. Rongotai 29.3%
  3. Auckland Central 29.2%
  4. Mt Albert 23.1%
  5. Ohariu 19.9%

Highest No Votes

  1. Waikato 92.54%
  2. Taranaki-King Country 92.41%
  3. Clutha-Southland 92.39%
  4. Hunua 92.38%
  5. Taupo 92.30%
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40 Responses to “Final Referendum Result”

  1. getstaffed (9,186 comments) says:

    Wellington: A cesspit of social liberals who can fill out forms correctly

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  2. emmess (1,428 comments) says:

    I think you mean turnout was 56.1%

    Woohoo, that beats the MMP referendum. According to Bradford logic we can go back to FPP

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  3. side show bob (3,660 comments) says:

    Highest Yes votes, Wellington Central, well knock me down with a feather duster. Yes votes from the yes men and yes women. Proud to say my area second in No votes.

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  4. Hurf Durf (2,860 comments) says:

    How can 1,000 people mess up a perfectly simple referendum ballot paper?

    Woohoo, that beats the MMP referendum. According to Bradford logic we can go back to FPP

    Awesome, no more Greens making law.

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  5. adc (595 comments) says:

    anyone notice how the NZ Herald “pulls” comments from readers.

    There’s comments in response to a post I made on this issue there, but my actual post has been removed.

    Looks like the Herald is taking sides.

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  6. queenstfarmer (782 comments) says:

    So the lowest turnouts were, as usual, in the Maori electorates, with the lowest being Tāmaki Makaurau. Kind of gives a rationale for the Maori Party wanting compulsory Maori seats on the Auckland Council.

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  7. Bok (740 comments) says:

    I am just waiting for the idiots in the greens and Lab to start spouting on how 80% of those who voted are the worst type of parent.

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  8. Cerium (23,559 comments) says:

    “How can 1,000 people mess up a perfectly simple referendum ballot paper?”

    Not difficult. I’m not sure how my vote was classified, Invalid or Informal, I ticked Yes and No. I wanted to register a vote but agreed with (and didn’t agree with) parts of either side of the argument.

    I’d like to see the law changed but I don’t see it as a big deal, much more important things to be done.

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  9. Brian Smaller (4,023 comments) says:

    No wonder the Maori Party are so concerned about Maori representation on the Auckland Supercity council. If people cannot be arsed to post a free-post envelope then they certainly wont vote for John Tamihere in a local body election.

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  10. Brian Smaller (4,023 comments) says:

    How can 1,000 people mess up a perfectly simple referendum ballot paper?

    Perhaps those were the ones confused by the question.

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  11. Cerium (23,559 comments) says:

    At a glance, apart from the Maori electorates which are a mix anyway, it looks like less urban electorates tended to have higher turnouts and higher No percentages.

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  12. Bok (740 comments) says:

    Ah Cerium you have to be kidding me.
    Have you heard the expression ‘cut of his nose to spite his face?”
    What you did is like saying when I get paid I’ll set fire to the whole lot to stop the taxman getting any of my money.
    Nobody reads your ballot and goes:” Ah, Cerium is making a protest. I should really think about and consider that..”
    The person doing the counting goes..” yes , no, yes . yes, no, does not count, yes , no.

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  13. Patrick Starr (3,674 comments) says:

    adc
    The herald have been doing that for a long time – especially on issues during the general election. They’re a pack of lefties who thrive on distorting view points

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  14. Hurf Durf (2,860 comments) says:

    Perhaps those were the ones confused by the question.

    You mean like Cerium?

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  15. Patrick Starr (3,674 comments) says:

    @ Bok – he’s like Saddam buring the oil fields

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  16. Cerium (23,559 comments) says:

    “Have you heard the expression ‘cut of his nose to spite his face?’”

    Yes, and it doesn’t apply here. I didn’t really care which way the vote went, and while I prefer that the law is improved it doesn’t particularly bother me if it isn’t. I won’t be criminalised but I don’t like others feeling they are.

    I was voting what felt best for me. What’s the problem with that?

    I wasn’t confused, it was a considered vote that I was happy with.

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  17. davidp (3,581 comments) says:

    >Incidentally I have run the results through my margin of error calculator as it it were a poll.

    DPF… As a professional pollster or survey maker, would you have ever used a leading word such as “good” in a poll question and expected the result to accurately indicate the feeling of the people you were surveying? What effect on the result would you expect a leading word to have?

    [DPF: I would not have used the word good, but I doubt it made much effect to the result. This is an issue that has been in the public domain for two years]

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  18. MeneerCronje (43 comments) says:

    Nope – it was a waste of your own time and the counters time that you are happy with…not a vote. Like your sympathy towards good parents though :-)

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  19. big bruv (13,887 comments) says:

    Taupo 92.30%

    Still think Upston has nothing to worry about DPF?

    [DPF: Yes]

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  20. KiwiGreg (3,255 comments) says:

    You could probably compare the electorates and their turnouts with their derived decile levels and get a pretty good match just looking at the names.

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  21. stayathomemum (140 comments) says:

    Good point about Maori representation Brian. Perhaps having allocated Maori seats indirectly promotes their non-participation, therefore avoiding them in Auckland and central government could actually encourage more active participation by Maori in our electoral processes.

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  22. Repton (769 comments) says:

    You could probably compare the electorates and their turnouts with their derived decile levels and get a pretty good match just looking at the names.

    It appears that statsnz does deciles on a finer scale, so most electorates will span a range of deciles.

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  23. getstaffed (9,186 comments) says:

    @ Bok – he’s like Saddam buring the oil fields

    Closer to home Patrick: Like Cullen buying the trainset!

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  24. Gooner (995 comments) says:

    Who cares?

    It could have been 99.99% to 0.01% in favour of Nays but it makes no difference.

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  25. PaulL (5,981 comments) says:

    Cerium – I also noted that the informal votes was higher in those electorates with a high yes vote. I could rudely conclude that the electorates that voted yes were also the ones with lots of stupid people…..but a more likely correlation is with “people who didn’t want to vote NO.” That is to say, of the people who don’t vote no, it looks to me like about 90% of them voted “yes” and about 3% of them spoiled their ballot. I think it is a deliberate protest vote (as yours is) rather than a reflection of confusion or stupidity.

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  26. BlairM (2,339 comments) says:

    Realpolitik demanded I vote No, but I objected to a referendum on what essentially asked who was in charge of my kids – me? or the State? You can’t have a majority vote on basic human rights and freedoms. They exist despite the whims of the majority. Even if I was the only No vote among three million in favour, that still doesn’t mean the government should decide how I discipline my kids. The decision is mine and my partner’s. And it will remain ours whatever foolish law the masses deem acceptable by voting the wrong people into office.

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  27. KiwiGreg (3,255 comments) says:

    Except BlairM the state requires that your child have an education (or more correctly at least show up to school). You are also required by the state to provide “the necessities of life” to your children. Despite my threats to my children we are not allowed to sell them for medical experiments, pass them on to white slavers or even use them as the other other white meat.

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  28. Cactus Kate (551 comments) says:

    “Kind of gives a rationale for the Maori Party wanting compulsory Maori seats on the Auckland Council”.

    No

    It kind of gives a further rationale for Maori not to deserve them.

    For all the marching, ranting and chanting about democracy and their rights as Tangata Whenua, they seem not to care less as a group about the most important thing – actually turning up and voting.

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  29. peteremcc (344 comments) says:

    Highest Yes Votes

    Wellington Central 36.0%

    I guess that explains why Labour thinks the country still like them and why National is too scared to change the law.

    Time to get out of a beltway for a bit guys!

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  30. Patrick Starr (3,674 comments) says:

    “they seem not to care less as a group about the most important thing – actually turning up and voting.”

    they probably expect that to be done for them as well

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  31. vibenna (305 comments) says:

    It is fun to run these things through margin of error calculators. But of course it is only just a bit of fun, and the respondents were not randomly selected from the population.

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  32. MikeG (425 comments) says:

    “If one assumes those who did not vote would vote the same as those who did vote, then the margin of error for the no vote was +/- 0.022%.”

    That’s one of the silliest assumptions I’ve seen all year. As vibenna points out, it was not a random sample to start with.

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  33. fishe (166 comments) says:

    There was also clearly a strong bias to, if one is going to vote, to vote No. I would highly doubt with the wording of the question as it was that the distribution of yes/no of the non-votes would be equal to that seen in the votes.

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  34. queenstfarmer (782 comments) says:

    “It kind of gives a further rationale for Maori not to deserve them”

    Agreed (was my point).

    I love the line being run by the referendum losers: “because just over 50% didn’t vote, the majority are obviously happy with the status quo”. In other words, a non-voter is an “implied Yes” vote.

    I can see Labour trying that next time they get into power – all non-voters must be happy with the incumbent Labour govt, so we’re just going to go ahead and add them to the Labour votes.

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  35. lilman (959 comments) says:

    World of wankers in this place.
    Simple to me, my kids ,my house,my money,my responsiblity.
    So when MY little johnny jumps through your window at 3 in the morning,you cant smack him because thats assault.
    When hes pissed and belts your wife at the pub,you cant smack him because its assault.
    And when my 3 yr old spits the dummy and behaves like a little version of the savage he will one day become ,you cant smack because thats assault.
    Bullshit, MY kids,my house,my life, my family,so if he needs it to learn some respect, whammo.
    Sorry sue and other homos.

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  36. MikeNZ (3,234 comments) says:

    I understand how you feel Lilman, but that won’t change anything and we need to change the way the National Party treats us. It also warns all the other parties too.

    Party Vote ACT guys.
    Rodney will change it and you get to smack John Key and National for corrective purposes.

    By the way have any of you sent them a letter (real paper) telling them this?
    What will 300,000 separate letters to the Beehive saying this do?

    Address it to Judith Collins as she claims to have the balls.

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  37. James (1,338 comments) says:

    “Except BlairM the state requires that your child have an education (or more correctly at least show up to school). You are also required by the state to provide “the necessities of life” to your children. Despite my threats to my children we are not allowed to sell them for medical experiments, pass them on to white slavers or even use them as the other other white meat.”

    The reason you SHOULD do those things is that your children have the same individual rights as you or any other human being…( but held in trust by the parent until they are able to assume the matching responsibilities ) and that you love them and WANT the best for them….NOT because the State says you must.BlairM is right…even if you were the only person in the country who who chosse to smack their child then the State and everyone else can butt out.

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  38. PaulL (5,981 comments) says:

    Education is demonstrated to be positive for children (as compared to no education). Providing the necessities of life is demonstrated to be good for children. Selling children into slavery, eating them or using them for medical experiments is demonstrated to be bad for them. It is reasonable that the government make laws about those things as there are no doubts about their usefulness.

    Mild physical discipline (a smack, as opposed to a beating) in many studies is show to have no negative impacts, and potentially positive impacts. Where there is doubt, the government has no place in intervening in the choices that parents make.

    Once mild physical discipline is show categorically to be bad, it is then reasonable for the government to legislate. Until then it has no place doing so.

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  39. Offshore_Kiwi (499 comments) says:

    Regardless of the wording of the question, the clear outcome of this referendum is that the vast majority of kiwis want this bad, bad law “gone by lunch time”. JK needs to grow a set and adopt the Borrows/Boscawen amendment as Government policy. That is, quite simply, the only acceptable *compromise*. Instead, we get a review followed by an investigation followed by another review. JK you are close to the most popular PM New Zealand has ever had. There are plenty of ways you can use that capital to implement policies that will start to reverse the damage of a decade of socialist dogma. Doing nothing on this issue is not a good way to spend that capital.

    As for the lesbian communist Bradford, she has never contributed a single useful thing to New Zealand society. 5 kids (how many of them are currently on the dole?), the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament in the 80s, the Unemployed Workers Rights Union (what a ridiculous contradiction in terms – it should be the bludgers union or, perhaps, Tara’s DPB Party), the Green Communist Watermelon Party. Someone should run this bitch out of town…or at least out of Wellington.

    Cactus, I agree. If JK caves on apartheid seats for the Auckland super-city, the damage will be as great as if he legislated to appoint Andrew Williams its inaugural mayor!

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  40. Chuck Bird (4,883 comments) says:

    “By the way have any of you sent them a letter (real paper) telling them this?”

    I sent Judith a personal email as I know her and she is my local MP. I sent it to her electorate office so she should read it.

    It will not make any difference though for reason DPF pointed out.

    Anyone who feels strongly on this issue just needs to vote ACT. That is the best way to get a law change.

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