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Invest in the polls

August 31st, 2009 at 4:58 pm by David Farrar

iPredict has six new stocks – polling stocks. And every fortnight they will pay out and new ones occur. Basically you can now invest in what you think the next Roy Morgan poll will say for National and Labour. The stocks are:

  1. National to fall
  2. National to not change
  3. National to rise
  4. Labour to fall
  5. Labour to not change
  6. Labour to rise

The current stocks are for what the Roy Morgan polls for the period 17 to 30 August will do in comparison to the results for the previous period of 2 to 16 August.  Normally I would expect the poll to 30 August results to come out late Friday, so you have four days to invest – and hopefully make a return.

So if you have a view about how National or how Labour has done in the last fortnight – you can now put your money where your mouth is.

Related posts:

  1. Record lead in Roy Morgan poll
  2. Nats up 3%, Lab down 3%
  3. Goff on the polls
  4. Polls and Prediction Markets
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This entry was posted on Monday, August 31st, 2009 at 4:58 pm and is filed under NZ Politics. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.

9 Responses to “Invest in the polls”

  1. Chicken Little (773) Says:
    August 31st, 2009 at 5:27 pm

    1 = money for jam

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  2. PaulL (5,195) Says:
    August 31st, 2009 at 6:41 pm

    Probably be more predictable if there were stocks for “left to rise” “right to rise” etc, with some arbitrary definition of what left and right means. There is a fair amount of noise with numbers moving labourgreen, and that doesn’t look to be the intent of these stocks. More a kind of “two party preferred” to use Australian terminology.

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  3. kaya (1,360) Says:
    August 31st, 2009 at 8:20 pm

    Chicken Little – yep

    No option for ACT to rise I see. :)

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  4. Chicken Little (773) Says:
    August 31st, 2009 at 9:47 pm

    Heh. DPF – hope you’re shorting those #3′s bigtime.

    Just had a look. Nats to fall @34c. buy buy buy

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  5. Bullitt (122) Says:
    September 1st, 2009 at 1:58 am

    Nats to fall would be a guaranteed winner at 99c let alone 34c. After the balls up of the anti smacking issue they havnt got a chance of staying anywhere near where they were.

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  6. kaya (1,360) Says:
    September 1st, 2009 at 8:56 am

    Bullitt – all depends when the survey was done relative to the results of the referendum and subsequent fallout.

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  7. Chicken Little (773) Says:
    September 1st, 2009 at 9:40 am

    Ha Nats now at .45c to fall. 20% gain on $$$ since last night. Not a bad return.

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  8. whalehunter (463) Says:
    September 1st, 2009 at 8:28 pm

    i think the nats will get some labour voters.

    act up.

    labour down.

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  9. Sonny Blount (1,753) Says:
    September 1st, 2009 at 8:40 pm

    Kaya,

    The period is 17 to 30 August so from the Mondaybefore the referendum until last Sunday

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