June HLFS Stats

August 7th, 2009 at 1:19 pm by David Farrar

I was too busy yesterday to blog on the rather dismal stats. Before I do big kudos to Stats NZ for their new website look. Much easier to get to the data tables now for new releases.

Employment went up by 2,000 this quarter for men, but dropped 12,000 for women, meaning a total of 10,000 less people in employment.But that is a loss of 18,000 FT jobs and a gain of 6,000 or so PT jobs.

The number of unemployed though jumped 24,000 to 138,000. That is a huge increase for one quarter. It indicates more people entering the labour force looking for work who were not looking or available previously.

The unemployment rate goes from 5.0% to 6.0%. However the European rate only goes from3.9% to 4.0%.

Still not too bad off compared to other OECD countries. We remain 9th best. The US is in 25th place with a 9.5% unemployment rate. I hope our rate will not get that high. It is likely there will be two more quarters of negative growth.

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8 Responses to “June HLFS Stats”

  1. Alan Wilkinson (1,878 comments) says:

    “It is likely there will be two more quarters of negative growth.”

    Pessimistic. I think only one more is more likely.

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  2. Kris K (3,570 comments) says:

    Alan Wilkinson 2:03 pm,
    “Pessimistic. I think only one more is more likely.”

    Purely on gut feeling [although this is probably about as good as any other method of 'prediction'], I wouldn’t be surprised if negative growth continues for another four to six quarters. The US doesn’t look like pulling up anytime soon, especially with Obama at the helm. And what with the way in which our economy is anchored to theirs, who really knows?

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  3. Alan Wilkinson (1,878 comments) says:

    Kris, I agree it’s very hard to call. But the sun is out and I’m picking springtime sooner rather than later.

    The US will probably continue inflating with a weak dollar but I think it will have a weak recovery and Asia will have a stronger one which we can benefit from.

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  4. KiwiGreg (3,255 comments) says:

    US recovery is probably already happening and will start showing in the Q3 numbers. New Zealand – god knows. But I would expect some growth by Q1 2010.

    Unemployment is always a lagging indicator and will keep growing even as the economy recovers.

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  5. side show bob (3,660 comments) says:

    If the dollar continues to climb so will the unemployment rate. I don’t really know what the government can do about the rising dollar but surely it’s value must climb given the US dollar is quickly becoming as common as confetti. If all we suffer is a 6% unemployment rate then we have dodged a bullet while staggering around in a minefield.

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  6. freethinker (691 comments) says:

    DPF – cannot figure your Euro figure at 4% as according to the economist – round figures – UK6%Germany & France 10% Spain 19% Italy can you believe any of their figures but over 10%. Collectively this is the the biggest number of people so am I missing something or is it a typo?

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  7. Glutaemus Maximus (2,207 comments) says:

    Uk figures are unreliable. On a like for like basis compared to Spain. Quite similar.

    Everyone got training, work in Council, Govt, went to prison, or became disabled. 15% is more accurate

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  8. max (31 comments) says:

    I think he is talking about Pakeha New Zealanders unemployment rate. So don’t worry its mainly brown faces hitting the dole queue, nothing to worry about for the kiwiblog readers…

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