August 26, 2009 4:00pm by David Farrar

New iPredict Site

iPredict have redone their website. It is much better. I especially like being able to browse markets by category.

Probably timely to do a review of my current investments, and some other interesting stocks. First my portfolio:

  1. Own 200 of Peters.Leader – never thought he would give up this year. Got for 39c so will make big profit
  2. Own 100 of PM.2011.National. Got at 67c and as will not pay out until end of 2011, not a huge return on investment. But as I can’t see Goff being made PM, worth putting some money where my mouth is.
  3. Own 200 of Mayor.Brown. Now this does not mean I think Len Brown will win. Just that I thought he was undervalued at 15c which is the price I purchased for. He formally announces this weekend so I might sell once that puts his price up. Depends what it goes to.
  4. Sold 445 DL.King.09. Yes I will get $445 if Annette stays on this year – average sale price 25c.
  5. Sold 300 FAS04.repeal as can’t see it being totally repealed by end of 2009 due to need for select cmte stage. Sale price was 71c so a good profit I hope.
  6. Sold 50 GST.UP.JULy10 for 23c. I can see the Govt having GST go up, but now by 1 July 2010. If annoucned in Budget 2010, prob take effect from 1 Oct 2010.
  7. Sold 650 Lead.Goff.09. I’ll lose $650 if Goff is rolled this year. Don’t do it Trevor.
  8. Sold 100 Min.Depart2.09 at 37c. I hope no more casualties by year end.
  9. Sold 541 MP.Anderton at 31c. Anderton has said he will not announce any retirement this year.
  10. Sold 336 Nat.Maori.09 for 18c. No chance of a dissolution by end of 2009.
  11. Sold 100 OCR.INCR.Apr10 for 31c. Currently at 40c so only stock I am on wrong side of. This is me saying I do not beleive the OCR will increase before April 2010. Bollard all but ruled it out a few months ago but market is not so sure it seems.
  12. Sold 100 OCR.INCR.Jan10 for 21c. Currently at 9c so market agrees no OCR increase this year.
  13. Sold 500 S92A.disconnect at average price of 20c. Will pay out on 1 Sep 2009 as no one can be disconnected by then.
  14. Sold 250 Zim.Mugabe for 56c. Will pay out if he remains President by end of year so should be a nice payoff.

I have no spare cash at the moment as ipredict only allow so much to be deposited every six months. Come 1 September and I’ll have $400 to invest. Some interesting stock:

  1. Field.Prison at 96c meaning 96% probability of getting a prison sentence when sentenced.
  2. 87c for Nat Bank August Confidence Index to be at least +20
  3. 7c for a 2010 snap election
  4. 22c for Judith Tizard to return to Parliament this term
  5. 20c for Winston to return in 2011
  6. 13c for National to vote for three strikes bill
  7. 0.13c (not 13c) for Andrew Williams to become Mayor of Auckland
  8. 89c for OCR not to change in October
  9. 9c for a sharemarket crash of over 250 points
  10. 19c for Fitch Ratings to downgrade NZ by July 2010
  11. 53c for petrol price in late September to be between 162c and 170c
  12. 43c for Malcolm Turnbull to be replaced as Aust Libs Leader before their election
  13. 91c for global temperatures to be higher in 2009 than 2008
  14. However only 6c for 2009 temperatures to be highest ever
  15. 94c for June GDP growth to be negative
  16. Only 19c for September GDP growth to be negative though