Goff should get to negotiate with Key
September 4th, 2009 at 8:02 am by David FarrarI attended the AGM of the NZ Institute of Economic Research last night. After the AGM and guest lecture (which I will blog on separately) there was a dinner at Icon Restaurant at Te Papa.
It was perhaps the only dinner I had been to, where you could have a discussion about the pros and cons of an intensity based approach to credit allocations in an emissions trading scheme, and the entire table understood the discussion!
In discussing the ETS, it became very clear that the preferred options of the NZ business sector is for National and Labour to reach agreement on the ETS, rather than National to rely on the Maori Party or ACT. They want certainty of policy.
Now Labour and National do actually agree on around 32 of the 35 issues around an ETS. However the issues they differ on are pretty big – the dates certain sectors enter the ETS and the merits or otherwise of an intensity based approach (which I will try and blog on at some stage also).
Now NZ already has an ETS, passed into law. Labour did this in 2008. So if Labour and National do reach an agreement, it is Labour that is arguably making the greater concession in order to give businesses policy certainity.
The Herald reports:
Labour is trying to rope Prime Minister John Key into the climate change negotiations, saying leader-to-leader talks are the way ahead. …
This is an opportunity for Phil Goff. In fact again at last night’s dinner we discussed how if Labour does do a deal with National on the ETS, this could be the equivalent of John Key’s compromise with Helen Clark on the smacking law.
And if Labour do put the national interest ahead of partisan interest, and strike an agreement with National, Phil Goff deserves his day up on the podium with John Key, looking Prime Ministerial.
But the issue is at what stage do you turn this into a negotiation at the leadership level. If I was advising John Key, I would have two reservations about negotiating with Goff at this stage.
- Can you trust him to be sincerely wanting an agreement, or is he just trying to get the PM involved so Key gets personally blamed when Goff walks away. Up until the Richard Worth affair, Goff would have been trusted. But his behaviour over the Choudary allegations, has dented Goff’s trustworthiness. And his use of confidential MFAT staff notes to embarrass Don Brash has not been forgotten either. In a negotiation both sides need to be able to put forward positions in confidence, and trust the other not to report the details.
- Can Goff deliver his caucus? Key had a strong enough grip on the leadership that he could strike a private deal with Clark, and cheerfully walk into Caucus and tell them all that they are now voting for the bill they have spent the last six months fighting. A deal with National might involve (for example) a change of stance on the intensity issue. Could Goff get his Caucus to agree to that, just to get him his day in the sun?
Now these are not reasons to not meet with Goff at all. If Labour does do a deal, he should be the one to get the credit and share the podium with the PM. For putting the national interest of policy certainty first, he would deserve it.
But such a meeting is unlikely to happen, until the lower level negotiators can report back that there are reasonable prospects of success.
Related posts:
- Pellett calls on Goff to resign as Labour Leader
- Goff knows you don’t do unilateral bottom lines in trade
- Little endorses Goff
- Hooton on Goff and ETS
September 4th, 2009 at 8:10 am
More inane ramblings from the chattering class – primping and posturing as they maneuver to use green superstition to steal from the productive elements of society.
Why do you go along with this David surely you are far too intelligent to be a true believer?
One might suspect you want a piece of the action.
[DPF: One might suspect you want demerits. Discuss the issues in the post, not make stupid swipes at me]
Vote:September 4th, 2009 at 8:12 am
Would Goff be able to deliver a caucus which knows that he is out in 2012? Maybe they’ll be willing to allow him the opprobrium in return for being able to secure business’ acquiescence if not support ie. to limit the opposition by business to their re-election hopes..
Vote:September 4th, 2009 at 8:14 am
I want a piece of the action; I got my carbon Offsets today from FreeCarbonOffsets.com.
Edit: linkwhore attempt failed, but it is their site. Free Carbon Credits- just as good as the ones that you pay for!
Vote:September 4th, 2009 at 8:21 am
Will I get a carbon credit every time I go for a crap? After all, there’s a fair bit of carbon being sunk.
The whole bloody thing is a disastrous crock of shit David. Based on junk science promoted by political zealots. Instead of attending posh dinners, you’d be better off spending your time convincing the gummint to grow the economy instead of throwing away what little prosperity we have left to be sacrificed on this false alter of stupidity.
Vote:September 4th, 2009 at 8:27 am
While I have sympathy for your position above Adolf, the fact remains that the issue is here to stay and something will be done. Thats just the political reality globally. Get used to it – even if you don’t like it. Although I do like your last comment re: productivity – Go the Mighty Brash!
Vote:September 4th, 2009 at 8:30 am
What utter off putting crap.
Why doesn’t John Key just make Labour part of his coalition government too, and be done with it??
Vote:September 4th, 2009 at 8:38 am
“Goff should get to negotiate with Key”
Why should you have to put this way? If our politicians put the country first it should be a given. If they co-operatively do what is best then the political kudos will follow.
Vote:September 4th, 2009 at 8:38 am
David
Vote:It’s a crock of shit and you know it. The nation is going to have its productivity curtailed by this for no reason.
Why should they make an agreement about a crock of shit?
Paying good money for hot air?
David just send a memo to John Key telling him to pull his head in on this one as half the electorate aren’t for it.
September 4th, 2009 at 8:39 am
or isn’t 50% enough for him?
Vote:September 4th, 2009 at 8:49 am
We need a rebellion.
The government is out of control.
People need to get a lot angrier about these smirking self serving power drunk politicians and their arse licking commercial sector cronies who seek to boost their own bank accounts whilst crippling the economy for everybody else.
Vote:September 4th, 2009 at 8:52 am
Climate change or not, a major shift in attitude and policy is occurring internationally. There are plenty here who suggest financially as a country we shouldn’t spend more than we earn – we should learn to live within our means. Doesn’t it make sense that we should also have a more balanced approach regarding resources and pollution. There is not much point passing sound financials on to following generations without also passing on a sound ecology and sustainable resources.
There is a good reason emissions controls have been coupled with monetary incentives and disincentives. Money rules.
Vote:September 4th, 2009 at 8:55 am
“Money rules.”
What utter crap. This is not a free market initiative. This is happening because of a massive propaganda offensive of lies and fear mongering by left wingers bent on control and redistribution and attacking capitalism. Go away with your sanctimonious sermons, made up of politically motivated lies and distortions. They do not wash here.
Vote:September 4th, 2009 at 9:02 am
Very interesting points, Mr Farrar.
Trust issues aside about Mr Goff, if Mr Goff doesn’t have the confidence of his caucus to deliver the caucus support in any negotiation, who in Labour does have this confidence? Ms Clark certainly did. Are Labour so rudderless that there is nobody in the caucus who can provide this leadership?
Vote:September 4th, 2009 at 9:03 am
“Go away with your sanctimonious sermons, made up of politically motivated lies and distortions. ” <
You are doing it again RB.
When did you last call for a rebellion or revolution? Five minutes ago?
Vote:September 4th, 2009 at 9:03 am
Cerium you almost had me there. chum.
The reasonableness of it beguiled me for a moment. very good, very slick.
But it was the thought of some dipstick somewhere putting money into their bank account from our hard earned dollars, from something not tangible or real (hot air) that saved me.
Vote:Phew
September 4th, 2009 at 9:16 am
http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/09/the_science_of_global_warming.html
A thoughtful little aside on the subject and it’s practitioners.
Vote:Maybe someone could send it through to Mr Key and his mate Nick.
September 4th, 2009 at 9:21 am
Mike, using the cow analogy used in that article, there weren’t any mad cow disease scientists around when that became a major issue.
Vote:September 4th, 2009 at 9:26 am
Yep, National and Labour getting together again – wow such confidence I get from hearing that again. So far Key has stuck to Labours smacking policy despite slamming Labours arrogance in ignoring the will of the people. The ETS will be another issue that will bring these two closer. I smell a civil union coming up.
Bet all you Nats who dithered over voting ACT feel a little foolish, come back and lets give them some balls in 2011.
Vote:September 4th, 2009 at 9:35 am
DPF, you really need to pull your head out of the politics of it and go back to the source material. All this is based on a model and a lot of hot air that IS GENUINLY anthropomorphic. if you allow the joke.
Vote:September 4th, 2009 at 9:41 am
this is all too little..too late..and will be overtaken by outside realities..
..(and not just ones of environmental degradation..)
http://whoar.co.nz/2009/prescott-cutting-emissions-by-80-will-not-be-enoughwarning-by-former-minister-who-helped-broker-kyoto-protocol/
“..“.. Europe’s climate targets of cutting carbon emissions by 30 per cent by 2020 and 80 per cent by 2050 may not be tough enough to get developing countries into a worldwide global warming deal, John Prescott has warned.
In an interview with The Independent, the former Deputy Prime Minister, who brokered the current climate treaty, the Kyoto Protocol..
.. said a 90 per cent cut might be needed in order to secure an agreement at December’s UN climate conference in Copenhagen.
Countries such as India are likely to ask rich Western countries to cut back on atmospheric CO2 still further ..
.. so that developing countries can continue to expand their economies .. and pull more of their people out of poverty, said Mr Prescott..
.. who has taken on an influential new role as the rapporteur on climate change for the Council of Europe..”
(wither rodney hide..?..eh..?..mr 1%..)
phil(whoar.co.nz)
Vote:September 4th, 2009 at 10:37 am
Massive propaganda based on statistical facts, observations and theories which have allot of support amongst the majority of the scientific community. RB knowing that he is right is as bad as those who know, with 100% certainty we are heading for an apocalypse. There is likely an issue with a general consensus, something should be done, and the science continued to be questioned as part of the process.
Vote:September 4th, 2009 at 10:40 am
We need a rebellion.
The government is out of control.
So you want to enact change by force because not everyone agrees with your world view?
Very authoritarian of you, you’re no better than the commies you say you oppose.
Vote:September 4th, 2009 at 10:51 am
yeah Bevan two rights don’t make a wrong do they?
Vote:September 4th, 2009 at 11:41 am
“Very authoritarian of you, you’re no better than the commies you say you oppose.”
You brain dead child. So all of the civilians presently organising tea bag and anti socialized medicine protests in the US are communists? Why don’t you find some adolescent chat site to contribute to where such spiteful infantile crap will more than likely go quite unremarked upon?
Vote:September 4th, 2009 at 11:44 am
Rodney Hide for Environment Minister!
Vote:September 4th, 2009 at 12:07 pm
Gosh a number of assertion masquerading as fact in this post by DPF.
1. An NZIER post match dinner discussion = NZ business opinion.
2. That if something is to be done, that business opinion in one voice wants cap n trade (ETS) not a carbon tax (ACT and Maori Party position).
3 That ACT (and the Maori Party) are acting in a manner that is outside business opinion.
4 That the timeless desire of business for certainty in public policy = sticking with poor public policy and not changing it i.e. cap n trade.
5 That agreement between National and Labour to stitch up a cap n trade deal = the national interest but any other course of action is against the national interest (small ‘n’).
Despite all this focus on doing what business wants and the Brahmin talk about public policy, the post degenerates into discussion about mere politics.
The politics of inter-party leader posturing and positioning (so much for saving the planet from being burnt to a crisp). The 23 yr old, barrow boy, Porsche owning, 2million pound, carbon traders of the City of London will be very disappointed at this lowbrow stuff.
The final words of wisdom from these business tycoons in Wellington (our economic engine room) is that a cap n trade deal with be for Goff as the smacking law is for Key.
Yes I am sure Goff is revving his Prius keen to pull National from its political problems on that basis.
Vote:September 4th, 2009 at 12:41 pm
Does Key have choice? If he turns up to Copenhagen empty handled, NZ will be effectively excluded from the ongoing negotiations. Our foresters will lose a lot of money and our tourism industry will take a hit. Trying to enter an ETS later will be much more expensive and disruptive. Its also hard to predict how excluding ourselves from a realistic ETS will affect the attitude of others when it comes to negotiating free trade deals.
Vote:Labour are way closer in philosophy than any other party to National on this issue- he would be crazy not to talk to them.
September 4th, 2009 at 1:22 pm
Pissing in the wind DPF – AGW/ACC is a complete crock – so any discussion re ETS etc etc is a complete waste of time.
Vote:September 4th, 2009 at 2:15 pm
You brain dead child. So all of the civilians presently organising tea bag and anti socialized medicine protests in the US are communists?
Who give a flying fuck what protestors are doing in the US, going on another of your trademark tangents RB?
You are calling for rebellion because you are not getting your way. So go on tough guy, start this rebellion of one.
Why don’t you find some adolescent chat site to contribute to where such spiteful infantile crap will more than likely go quite unremarked upon?
Don’t you believe in freedom of speech. Just like Uncle Joe.
Vote:September 4th, 2009 at 2:16 pm
TCrwdb – not at all. There is an ETS already passed into law. Like it or not there will be a price set on carbon – the law has already been passed. So issues around how exactly the mechanism will work are not a waste of time but actually very important to all the business owners who will be affected by it.
Vote:September 4th, 2009 at 2:19 pm
“More inane ramblings from the chattering class – primping and posturing as they maneuver to use green superstition to steal from the productive elements of society.”
Absolutely correct. And we have the “fearless”, now spineless, National government continuing this expensive charade by going along and giving impetus to the myth believers. Key’s leadership (Nick Smith neither matters, nor count) is abandoning him rapidly.
Vote:September 4th, 2009 at 3:56 pm
What should happen is that ACT should agree to abstain from voting and National should pass their proposal without reference to Liabour. I consider National’s proposals too harsh and unnecessary but at least they are not as destructive as Liabours. Any
Vote:collaboration between Liabour and National brings to mind the George Bush analogy ‘An Axis Of Evil’, and we the people will be the victims.
September 4th, 2009 at 5:22 pm
DPF – the current ETS law ought be thrown out. There doesn’t need to be a price set on carbon, there are plenty of people now waking up to the lie that is AGW/ACC, it needs thinking people to stand up and call it for what it is, rather than just roll with it whilst our economy and lifestyles are smashed back to the dark ages by the Socialist International.
Vote: