Goff blames honeymoon
The Herald reports:
Labour leader Phil Goff says National is still enjoying a honeymoon with the public after a new poll showed it had double the support of his party.
TV3′s poll of 1000 voters last night put the National Government’s support at an exceptionally high 59.9 per cent compared to Labour’s 27.2 per cent.
A honeymoon is defined as:
any new relationship characterized by an initial period of harmony and goodwill
Now the media have run multiple stories since May declaring the honeymoon over. There has been a Ministerial resignation, a tax cut cancelling budget, MP investigations, tensions with confidence and supply partners, the Auckland Super City, Maori Seats, rising unemployment etc etc.
Mr Goff said the poll covered a recess period when it was hard for Labour to get publicity and before recent controversies over rugby broadcasting and ACC.
The recess can be a factor, but hell you are talking 2% or 3% on a 33% gap. The poll included coverage up to last Wednesday which covered pretty much all the worst of the rugby broadcasting fiasco, and a fair bit of the well signalled ACC changes. Sure it didn’t cover the failure to have the numbers in the house, but Labour are deluding themselves if they think one single issue is going to change things much – the public don’t follow House issues anywhere like we do.
“This is a new government, it’s in its first year of government, they still have the appearance of being fresh, of being people-friendly. We know from experience that the gloss wears off,” Mr Goff told Radio New Zealand.
It has been 11 months since the election. If you compare to other first term Governments, you have:
June 85 – Govt behind by 2%
Sep 91 – Govt behind by 20%
Oct 00 – Govt behind by 4%
Oct 09 – Govt ahead by 33%
Anyone see the problem in Phil’s theory?
“It’s a difficult stage of the political cycle for the Labour Party, we don’t get exuberant about high polls we don’t get deeply depressed about low polls.
Here is their fundamental problem? They think it is just a stage. They think all Labour has to do is wait for people to realise their mistake.
Perhaps Phil could explain why after 11 months in the job, he can barely make half the support level of someone who is no longer even in politics, and now lives in the United States. Is that also just a stage of the cycle?
October 20th, 2009 at 11:04 am
He would wouldn’t he?
I’d like him to front up to why he thinks he can act so undemocratically with the EFB for starters, let alone the lying with the Prefu.
However nice he is personally when you meet him.
October 20th, 2009 at 11:08 am
Poor old Goffstrich, head in the sand.
October 20th, 2009 at 11:13 am
Leave Phil alone, he’s doing a great job.
As an aside I notice 8% opted for Clark.
We let these people vote?
October 20th, 2009 at 11:14 am
Phil Goff is in denial of his on incompetence and using his undeserved arrogance to explain away the Labour parties deficiencies…
October 20th, 2009 at 11:17 am
I wonder which stage he reckons it is: denial, anger, bargaining, depression, or acceptance ?
October 20th, 2009 at 11:20 am
Smacking legislation
Speeding motorcade (“didn’t notice”!)
$800,000 stolen from the taxpayer
ACC deficit hidden – breach of Public Finance Act
Harbouring criminals – Field
Electoral Finance Act
Abolition of knighthoods with no notice
Abolition of Privy Council with no notice
Rich Prick 39% tax rate
Overseas investment tax ambush
etc etc etc
Yep, it’s just a honeymoon and nothing to do with Labour.
October 20th, 2009 at 11:25 am
There’s not much he can say about the polls really. One of his problems is he feels a need to say anything at times he would be better off remaining silent. It wouldn’t hurt him if he said nothing for the next six months. Surely.
At least I hope he is saying to himself “I’m getting caned in the polls, the outlook for Labour is dire, we have to work out how to do things radically different to pull ourselves out of this. And reduce what we say and make what we do say count”.
October 20th, 2009 at 11:31 am
freedom101 (131) Vote: 2 0 Says:
October 20th, 2009 at 11:20 am
…dont forget the billion dollar train set…
October 20th, 2009 at 11:35 am
“Goffstrich”
ROTFLMAO
@ DPF It’s just a poll you know, not an actual election. Lack of alternatives probably explains 32.5% of the gap.
October 20th, 2009 at 11:39 am
Goff could face the same problem Bill English did when he was leader and lagging by miles. The media stopped asking him about policy, even leading up to an election, and only asked him how he was going to turn the polls around, and every attempt to do get some message out got reported in terms of whether it had any effect on the dismal ranking.
Those media who are declaring that the honeymoon is over are the wrong ones to pay attention to. I was in a shop yesterday and there staring back from the cover of the NZ edition of the Australian Womens Weekly…John and Bronagh! And yet another article telling us about “The Real John Key”.It is not a matter of whether things go wrong for a government, it is whether the public outside the beltway has started to learn to hate the particular mob that is in for what goes wrong.
October 20th, 2009 at 11:42 am
Remember too that Goff is so “blue collar” he can explain underfloor insulation to a Wainuiomata builder.
October 20th, 2009 at 11:47 am
We have to blame the polls – else it means we have to look at ourselves – we have nothing. No direction, no leader, no idea.
All we can do is post on red alert and the standard and make accusations about national – that they “dont care” or that “John Key kills babies”.
We figure that all voters are stupid enough to take what we write at face value and not look to much at the detail.
If the polls dont start getting better we will have Trevor go talk to them.
October 20th, 2009 at 12:17 pm
DPF, do you have any numbers for 1976? That is probably the better analogue.
October 20th, 2009 at 12:54 pm
Perhaps Mr Goff misheard previous advice from his deputy, when she blamed the moon for rising violent crime.
October 20th, 2009 at 1:02 pm
Phil still can’t believe Labour lost the election.
Even yesterday when asked by James Coleman, if with the latest poll, he is becoming irrelevant he replied in part with the public “know the qualities I’ve brought to being Minister…”
Ah Phil, you ain’t a minister no more
http://www.radiolive.co.nz/Audio/tabid/109/Default.aspx
Then go to 19 October at 7.15am and about 1min 55sec
October 20th, 2009 at 1:23 pm
The demographics of the change would be interesting to look at.
You aren’t going to change the small hard core of Socialists, Unionists, Social Change advocates and special interest groups who did well under Labour … but there is probably something more going on than a simple move to the other side of the boat by a few swinging voters.
I bet the average female vote is switching from a bias towards Helen just because she was a woman, across to that nice young man Mr Key, since the election, which would explain why JK is on the magazine covers.
There just has to be a rethink happening in the mind of the average Maori Labour voter with the Maori Party gaining influence inside the tent now.
I also suspect that the large South Auckland voting block may be slowly getting won over by National. They are undoubtedly putting the effort into it. It may need a lot more than union buses and free KFC to win that vote back to Labour as strongly in 2011.
On these trends I believe two thirds to a National led consortium in 2011 and a serious mandate for an economic policy change favouring growth is certainly possible if the strategies are well managed over the next 2 years.
October 20th, 2009 at 1:24 pm
PaulP to be fair…sometimes the National Party don’t seem to believe they’re the government either. Many times during points of order National MPs and even the Speaker say “minister” instead of “member” when referring to Labour MPs. Which was understandable when the government was quite new, but it’s been a long time now.
October 20th, 2009 at 1:35 pm
This leftie agrees!
I’m going to miss these daily Phil Goff ridiculings, when he goes.
October 20th, 2009 at 1:38 pm
Phil who?
October 20th, 2009 at 2:20 pm
Guess at least he is not as hated as Gordon Brown ha.
Now that’s talking about an incompetent party (the Tories / Conservatives in the UK). They have an economy which is ridiculously indebted, a pm with the worst approval rating ever (was a survey done which said 50% of Britons believed anyone in parliament could do a better job than Gordon!) and they are struggling. Its actually just insane.
October 20th, 2009 at 2:29 pm
If Goff thinks the latest poll results are due to National’s “honeymoon” effect, then the latest leadership poll results perfectly illustrate the post-Clark leadership “funeral” effect….unfortunately for Goff he is the cadaver.
October 20th, 2009 at 4:17 pm
Those three weeks of disappearing seem to have done Goff a lot of good. That urgent debate in the house this afternoon on the RWC rights, dare I say it, he looked like future Prime Minister material. Brownlee even gifted him with the biggest own goal (or should I say conceded the softest try) I have ever witnessed live! At the very least, if that didn’t give Goff a few percentage points in the polls, nothing will.