Unemployment

October 12th, 2009 at 12:00 pm by David Farrar

A nice headline in the Herald about how the dole queue has dropped for the first time in around a year. However I would not read too much into it:

  • Firstly the HLFS is the better (and internationally) comparable figure of as it measures everyone available and looking for work regardless of if they are on the dole.
  • Some of the drop is because of the Government’s subsidies for young people. Now it is great this has got them into work, and off the dole, the effect may not be permanent.
  • There are seasonal issues, and over summer you gets tens of thousands of tertiary students seeking work

So I still expect unemployment to increase in the HLFS in Sep 2009 and Dec 2009 quarters. But maybe things will get better before late 2010.

But Business NZ chief executive Phil O’Reilly said the figure tallied with other evidence that employment might be picking up much sooner than the September quarter of next year, when current economic forecasts predict unemployment will peak at 7.5 to 8 per cent.

“There’s a good possibility of a permanent trend downwards from early next year,” he said.

That would be good.

Council of Trade Unions secretary agreed that the signs were that unemployment would peak sooner than next September and at less than 8 per cent.

He and Mr O’Reilly noted there had been no large-scale closures in the last few months, although there was a risk that some businesses might be forced under by the strength of the dollar.

Let’s just hope the US economy doesn’t implode, causing a W shaped recession.

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15 Responses to “Unemployment”

  1. Pete George (23,345 comments) says:

    Let’s just hope the US economy doesn’t implode

    It was for peace, not for economics…

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  2. Chris C (224 comments) says:

    All economics prizes for this year were cancelled, because you couldn’t find an economist who could even inspire hope. Those not currently in academia or blagging their way through government were in the dole queue – which isn’t a primary source of hope – for getting their forecasts so badly wrong.

    Next year all prizes will be awarded in the manner of the literature and peace prize – pictures on a giant dartboard.

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  3. gravedodger (1,528 comments) says:

    Comment on 3rd point in opening para, of those thousands how many are seeking money without work if possible

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  4. thedavincimode (6,590 comments) says:

    … unsurprisingly, status quo has nevertheless been preserved in the Department of Shiney Bits at Chateau Ure

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  5. s.russell (1,580 comments) says:

    Dare I suggest it, but it seems to me that the major factor driving the surprisingly strong recovery in New Zealand has been the new mood of hope an optimism that has taken hold since, oh, about November last year.

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  6. KiwiGreg (3,224 comments) says:

    “Let’s just hope the US economy doesn’t implode, causing a W shaped recession.”

    No sign of that so far; leading indicators of growth are at 26 year highs for the US. 2010 likely to be a boomer year (for the US, no idea about NZ) but god alone (or perhaps his disciple on earth, the Prince of Peace [prizes]) knows about 2011.

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  7. Elijah Lineberry (306 comments) says:

    If it is true unemployment is falling I think it is time the unemployment benefit was abolished.

    The ‘dole’ is merely a tool for indolence and it leads to greater welfare dependency; were it unavailable it would encourage greater productivity (from fear of losing employment) along with considerably greater gratitude towards employers from employees (also out of fear of losing employment).

    Further positives from abolishing the unemployment benefit would be a return to proper values such as self help, thrift, hard work, helping ones neighbour and the pioneering spirit which built this nation of ours.

    In addition to all of that it would help to balance the Government accounts.

    http://www.nightcitytrader.blogspot.com

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  8. philu (13,393 comments) says:

    i’d pretty much bank on that ‘w’ there..dpf..

    the price of gold is heading inexorably up..

    the smart money is shit-scared of the american dollar..

    which is a matter of when..not if..

    (walked through any tv retailers lately..?

    seen the panicked look on the face of the staff..?

    the beads of sweat on managements’ upper-lip..?

    (a consumer-led-recovery..eh..?..

    should we all start holding our breath now..?

    phil(whoar.co.nz)

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  9. Chris C (224 comments) says:

    philu (6117)
    October 12th, 2009 at 3:28 pm

    the smart money is shit-scared of the american dollar..

    No, the smart money just LOVES the Asia Pacific currencies. They’re running scared on the pound – USD is holding up well. GBP has fallen hard and fast, and the smart money is on the Kiwi and the Aussie until at least next May – election day, UK.

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  10. philu (13,393 comments) says:

    and this market rise echoes the patterns of other crashes..

    (it’s spooky how graphs from all crashes just sit on top of each other..

    each replicating the other to a perfect degree..

    and at the moment..

    (going on those previous examples..)

    we are currently in the up and down squiggly bit..

    just before the line disappears thru the floor..

    more an inverted ‘w’ t i think..dpf..

    the money-printing must eventually come to a halt…

    and the american dollar will dive..

    america has been the architect of its’ own demise..

    exporting all those ‘manufacturing’-industries to low labour-cost countries..

    smashing the unions..to ensure a low-wage economy..

    therefor ensuring their own people had no money..to now buy these products..

    and they were given a credit-bubble to play with..

    to pretend..

    now..all over..

    phil(whoar.co.nz)

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  11. thedavincimode (6,590 comments) says:

    “should we all start holding our breath now”

    Interesting idea. Tell you what, maybe if you lead the way there little magpie man and we’ll let you know if its working (oops, sorry, successful) and when to stop …

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  12. Viking2 (11,283 comments) says:

    So MacDonalds now have 900 odd subsidized workers. Big deal. What a lot of bullshit. Don’t know of many businesses around our way taking people on an a permanent basis yet.

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  13. Viking2 (11,283 comments) says:

    Lindsay has good look at the numbers, interesting analysis. Not good by any standards because for some socialist reason we just don’t seem to want to get the issue sorted.

    http://lindsaymitchell.blogspot.com/2009/10/another-look-behind-unemployment.html

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  14. jabba (280 comments) says:

    stop the bus .. Darien Fention has announced that the suggestion that unemployment is slowing is premature .. bugga.

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  15. ISeeRed (244 comments) says:

    “W shaped”? They’ll just blame Bush. ;-)

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