What to do with a 60% poll rating
As I blogged yesterday, National is at 60% in the latest poll. The four parties in Government would have 82 seats on that poll.
Now there is no way this will last forever. A party does not stay 15% up on their election night result when they are in Government.
So my question is, why not use the 60% rating while you can. Rev it up, and take it out for a spin. Do some bold stuff, even if takes you to 55% or 52% – because you’ll eventually end up there anyway.
I don’t mean do stuff you said you would not do. Keeping faith with the electorate is very important. But at the moment the opposition is misfiring and somewhat impotent. The public are not listening to them.
The long-term goal is lifting our economic growth. Despite the rhetoric we will never close the income gap with Australia, but we might be able to stop the gap getting any bigger. Hell, I’ll even settle for the gap not growing so fast as before. Some of what we need to do to lift that growth may need boldness. And at 60% in the polls is the time when you can afford to be bold. You may never get the chance again.
October 20th, 2009 at 9:41 am
Why this obsession with economic growth, the way i see it we live to fine standards here in nz, somethings can be improved but economic growth is not the ingredient required. The only true thing to make us really grow economically is to bring immigration levels right up and i don’t think that kiwis want that.
[DPF: Depends on whether or not you want NZers to have hospitals and schools that are comparable to other western countries. Without economic growth, we can't fund them]
October 20th, 2009 at 9:49 am
Looks like DPF feels he doesn’t have enough ‘Yes! privatise everything and cut taxes to 15, no, 10%’ comments.
October 20th, 2009 at 9:50 am
The only true thing to make us really grow economically is to bring immigration levels right up
That’s the only way?!
October 20th, 2009 at 9:51 am
Yeah! lets dig all the national parks up, extract all that mineral weallth! Common big Jerry! DEATH to nature!
October 20th, 2009 at 9:55 am
Lets cut taxes to 25% for everyone.
Do away with GST.
Can Capital Gains Tax forever.
Make the tax return easy for a 12yr old to fill in.
Post all govt expenditure over $500 on the web for the grannies to look at.
Open up parliamentary services to the OIA.
Treasury post the tax take per different taxes and it’s % of tax on a yearly basis, all on an A3 in the middle of the Herald/Dompost/ODT etc etc.
Road tax (and others) and the % of it that goes into the general fund.
October 20th, 2009 at 9:58 am
Come on DPF – That 60% rating is exactly why they wont do anything. They are fixated by it.
October 20th, 2009 at 9:58 am
Why not using political capital to deliver on electoral promises made?
Why not start dismantling the bloated bureaucratic machine and doing away with superflous quangos?
Why not opening ACC to competition?
Why not attempting serious reform of the welfare state?
Why not undertaking a review of taxation policy, beyond paying lipservice to it?
Why not stopping the Treaty gravy train?
October 20th, 2009 at 9:59 am
Flat tax.
Flat tax.
Flat tax.
Half of Key’s caucus want it, his coalition partner (ACT) would wet themselves with glee, and it would be in-line with the Treasury’s recommendation.
C’mon Mr Key, it’s time to be bold.
October 20th, 2009 at 10:01 am
1), 2), 3), 4)…
That’s why the National Party is at 60%.
Who’s stupid?
October 20th, 2009 at 10:02 am
“the way i see it we live to fine standards here in nz”
You could only say that if you have never been anywhere else. Ignorance is bliss.
October 20th, 2009 at 10:07 am
What to do with a 60% poll rating?
If you have principles and backbone, there’s plenty a government can do to set the country on the road to prosperity.
What will John Keyless do? As little as possible, judging by his words and deeds so far. He doesn’t want to rock a sinking boat.
October 20th, 2009 at 10:08 am
“I don’t mean do stuff you said you would not do.”
Why not?, Neville seems happy to break most of the promises he made to “middle NZ”, lets just have a look at some of the lies he told us pre election.
1. Ongoing tax cuts
2. Get tough on welfare bludgers
3. Close the gaps with Aussie.
4. Cut government spending
5. Abolish Mowree seats.
That list proves that Neville has no problem breaking promises at all.
October 20th, 2009 at 10:10 am
That’s why he needs ACT to hand hold him. (pref @10+%)
They just want to make sure they get a second term so won’t risk it.
Instead of acting and people giving it to them on vision and action.
The fear is the begging class not liking losing their entitlements which now includes WFF middle class too.
October 20th, 2009 at 10:12 am
You heard it here first. Even National’s chief supremo cheerleader thinks New Zealand will never escape from the long shadow of its colonial better.
Time for New Zealand to join the Australian federation.
October 20th, 2009 at 10:13 am
National do have room to be bold (but the polls shouldn’t drive it, the need to do it should). Agreed they have to stay true to pledges as much as possible, but they can’t start elsewhere and signal any changes coming up to the next election.
Next year is the time to make it happen. They can do plenty without alienating the floating middle – in fact if they do it reasonably right they could enhance their support.
October 20th, 2009 at 10:14 am
I thought we already had according to their banks?
October 20th, 2009 at 10:19 am
Unless we get our birth rates up and emigration down it could be.
Anyway, in a free market environment shouldn’t immigration be free as well, let the market decide who comes?
October 20th, 2009 at 10:20 am
1. Free RWC tickets to every privately employed taxpayer , just to say thanks.
2. Taxes so flat they look like they have been ironed.
3. Have the SAS sort out the gangs instead of flying them to Wellington to stroke their mana.
4. Make Maori TV screen in Black and White, because that’s how they see things.
October 20th, 2009 at 10:20 am
Sadly, Brian, your 9.58 is exactly right.
October 20th, 2009 at 10:20 am
Rev it up? Take it out for a spin? The petrol head road builder in us all, or, at least, some of us, I assume.
To be bold, you have to have a strategy snd the capacity to deliver it in a sequenced, sensible way. It requires serious policy work so that interventions work. It requires competent ministers to do some serious thinking, to engage intellectually with the complexities of policy. The current government has none of this. Look at the cock-up that has got them along to road to privatise ACC. We’re there because of a stuff-up on parliamentary numbers, which serendipitously has pulled ACT into the frame, causing Contingent John to think about privatising, sorry, bringing some competition into ACC. This is not strategy. It is piecemeal, unco-ordinated driving blind.
The neo-liberal agenda is fundamantally damaging to economy and society, when done in a professionally-managed manner. Introduced on the basis of a ‘back-of-an envelope’, ‘let’s chance our arm and see how it goes’ basis (as in, for example, the case of the Supercity), it could be devastating for New Zealand. Government should not become the plaything of the superficial and contingent, of a ‘kiddies in the sweet shop’ approach based on political polls. I must hope that Mr Key has a greater sense of responsibity for all New Zealand than some of the posters in this thread.
October 20th, 2009 at 10:21 am
What an interesting exercise!
Parties and governments are always quietly saying to their core constituencies that they “would like to do more of what we believe in, but that would be too unpopular” or words to that effect. So it’d be interesting to put this exercise to those politicians, or at least their core supporters to see what the radical priorities would be.
Personally, I don’t think the current National Party is made up of bold “revolutionaries of the right” that are only being restrained by the practicalities of opinion polls. They are actually – mostly – intrinsically politicians of the status quo. So, the public policies that Key, English etc would be bring in if they had a political blank cheque probably wouldn’t be anything too different to what we’re seeing now. People are dreaming if they think John Key would suddenly turn into Lindsey Perigo.
Likewise, on Labour’s side the caucus and leadership are not exactly highly-principled politicians of ideals wanting to transform society, so again if Goff was given carte blanche to do as he wanted in government for a short period of time, not much would fundamentally change. Nonetheless, it’d be good to see DPF’s “60% poll rating” exercise repeated on the Red Alert blog in terms of the highly-hypothetical (!) idea of a Goff Labour having such mass support. But even the Red Alert crowd are probably far too cautious for such an exercise.
Bryce
[DPF: I agree JK and BE are not Ruth and Roger waiting for an opportunity. However I do think there are some things they know would make sense to do, but are put off by the politics.]
October 20th, 2009 at 10:22 am
economic growth at natural rates will of course occur.
good managment is important of course.
But nz is all on its own down here, we could never be any kind of economic superpower, certainly not with such a small population, in line with population is our economic potential. You tripple our population and we will be far better of economically, but i don’t think kiwis have any interest with the lifestyle costs involved with these types of population growth
October 20th, 2009 at 10:22 am
“4. Make Maori TV screen in Black and White, because that’s how they see things.”
Ha!
October 20th, 2009 at 10:24 am
I think national has been consistent and inoffensive. My number one wish would be that they would do the right thing and repeal the anti-smacking legislation. 88% of New Zealanders would be on their side. It’s time the government stopped interfering in the lives of ordinary law-abiding New Zealanders!
Then I would like them to get serious about the core principles that the National party was founded on. Individual responsibility and self-reliance. Certainly communities getting together and help each other. But at a local level — not everything being done and decided in Wellington.
No more bloated government programs. No more taxes. Less tax, a smaller government, more individual and community responsibility. Lots less government regulation and telling people what to do. Wind back the nanny state. Let New Zealanders take responsibility for their own lives. Let communities work at a local level to come up with solutions to solve their problems.
Get rid of all this regulation and red tape. Limited government — more individual and family and local community responsibility. That’s what I like to see for New Zealand.
October 20th, 2009 at 10:29 am
Should the karma buttons here be black and white too?
October 20th, 2009 at 10:34 am
They should really be blue and red. Who wants to give a Green thumbs up.
October 20th, 2009 at 10:41 am
I just did for you
October 20th, 2009 at 11:06 am
I would love to see some bolder action from National on (among other things) freeing New Zealand from the provider capture syndrome. We have a health system that has been captured by doctors, an education system that has been captured by teachers, and a justice system that has been captured by lawyers. Each operates primarily for the benefit of providers and only secondarily for the benefit of those the systems are intended to serve.
Here is the hopeful scenario:
National will move cautiously, preparing the ground and doing the policy work in advance so that things go smoothly. They know that sudden radical action without careful preparation will get them kicked out of office and the reform reversed. So they will move slowly and steadily, building support in advance, putting proposals to the public before the next election so that they have a mandate and making it hard to reverse things later. By making lots of small changes over 9 or 12 years they will actually accumulate a lot of change and carry the public with them so the changes stick after they are gone.
I hope this is what will happen. But I fear it wont. That National will be too timid and like the Holyoake administration (or the Menzies administration in Australia) they will do good things, but too little, resulting in our continued slow slide to national mediocrity.
October 20th, 2009 at 11:11 am
Bryce Edwards totally nails it above.
Alas for DPF and for New Zealand, this is as good as it gets. Key is one third through his term, is a nice guy, a refreshing change from Clark; he is modern and relaxed but he is entirely without a programme.
He is a trader: deal making is king not content.
His government is characterised by d hoc gut instinctual responses (backed by polling) to the major political crisis’s that pop up on a semi regular basis. Because there is no programme the crisis’s are bigger than they ever should be in the scheme of things.
Their hidden agenda is to ensure that they will not spend 9 years in Opposition again; if that means mimicking Labour then that’s what they will do.
The $240 million of borrowing per week to prop up current government spending that will take twenty years to repay is deeply deeply immoral. History will judge Key and National harshly for this for in essence this Prime Minister is passing the problem forward to a future Prime Minster to sort.
Interestingly, I cannot find Nationals 2008 manifesto or platform for the 2008 General Election on its website. Perhaps someone can provide a link.
All I can do is rely on DPF’s statement that National promised to look at competition in ACC before the last election.
And then we get this:
“Mr Key said if the ACC work account was opened up to competition, National would “need to be convinced that there were benefits both to the Government and the private sector”.”
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=10604229
So all that ACT is asking is that National pursue in Government its own pre election platform. Post election the Prime Minster needs convincing of the case for National’s own pre election platform.
Truly this is as good as it gets. To take anything for a spin you need a destination; for National it’s the journey that matters more than where one is trying to get to.
If National does not believe NZ can catch up to Australia then it begs the question as to why they signed up too it – and all the work streams being done to show how the goal can be achieved; all the brave senior civil servants thinking the unthinkable. That is either cynicism or incompetence.
October 20th, 2009 at 11:11 am
Unlike Helen, Keys got no balls.
National should bring in a flat tax and raise GST – immediately. BUt, given nationals leftist leanings, we won’t see that.
October 20th, 2009 at 11:16 am
Totally agree with S. Russell.
The trouble is in my opinion we have had nine years of socialism and political correctness. So sensible, common sense policies appear to be “radical”. We need lower taxes for example. The size of our government funded bureaucracy is strangling our economic growth. But we now have such powerful special-interest groups that cry foul at any hint of rolling back government programs, that real reform is being stifled.
I believe when New Zealanders truly want to take charge of their own lives, rather than expecting the government to do it for them, then we will see real change.
But we need to learn to take responsibility for ourselves and our families and our local communities. We need to care for one another — rather than expect the government to do it for us.
October 20th, 2009 at 11:19 am
CD I concur.
s.russell – but you still have to lay out a vision – a snap shot of the future.
Scott – this is all good, but the dependence on Govt in the mind must be relinquished too.
Sorry to repost but this is it sadly.
He’s looking like a wet dream at the moment.
“That’s why he needs ACT to hand hold him. (pref @10+%)
They just want to make sure they get a second term so won’t risk it.
Instead of acting and people giving it to them on vision and action.
The fear is the begging class not liking losing their entitlements which now includes WFF middle class too”.
October 20th, 2009 at 11:25 am
People seem to forget that the national of old is gone.
Today we have a “center right” national part.
Those promise’s they made must be kept, or they will brand them selves liars and a name like that sticks.
October 20th, 2009 at 12:44 pm
One of your better posts David. Clear,concise and to the point. Lets see more quality and less volume.
Regards
John Gibson
October 20th, 2009 at 12:47 pm
“Unlike Helen, Keys got no balls.”
Hear, hear.
October 20th, 2009 at 12:47 pm
I agree with S. RUSSELL in respect to Education, Health, and Welfare and Justice Systems having been captured by special interest groups rorting the system. Indeed it has been rorted to such an extent that the only solution is to start again..How-ever the solution being tried is to borrow $250 million a week to perpetuate the wastage and to seek further methods of extracting taxation.
October 20th, 2009 at 1:00 pm
Sounds like a beauraucrat trying to justify their job. You forget that there are people out there that have run their own successful businesses or have been part of one. When people ask the secret of their success the answer is often ‘you don’t need all those people to tell you something you can figure out for yourself’.
Committees do not make the best managers.
October 20th, 2009 at 2:29 pm
Perhaps I’m a little melancholic today, or maybe it’s because I just (at DPF’s suggestion on an earlier thread) finished watching the “Revolution” TV series on NZ On Screen. There are many parallels between 1984 and the end of 2008. It was the closure of a long-serving, out-of-touch administration (which had done much to damage New Zealand’s economy) and the start of a new, young one. The difference between then and now is that nobody has recognised the “burning bridge” for what it is, and there does not appear to be anyone truly visionary in the current National government. It is clear to me that, regardless of what anyone thinks of his politics, Roger Douglas was truly visionary in his reframing of the New Zealand economy. Where is the person who will take that role in 2009/10? Is the borrowing of a billion dollars a month and New Zealand’s continued slide down whatever OECD ranking you want to look at, not enough of a push?
October 20th, 2009 at 2:47 pm
My programme of action:
– school vouchers. Helps the poor most of all, in the long term giving the poor a decent education will help all of NZ
– tax cuts for the poor – introduce a largish tax free threshold. Helps get people into work, which in turn is one of the biggest indicators of success for their children, and therefore also a great investment in our future
– deal with benefit abatement rates all through the tax system. May require abolishing WFF to deal with it in the middle classes (perhaps accompanied by a middle class tax cut, which in turn could be funded by a carbon tax), but those abatement rates are a massive drain on productivity
– modify drug policy to deal with the problems, rather than treating everyone as a criminal. Side effect is massive reduction in crime, and therefore allows police to spend time chasing the real bad bastards instead of some kid with a joint. Also has large public health improvements, particularly for the mentally ill
– carbon tax to shut the greens up without destroying our economy.
October 20th, 2009 at 3:00 pm
“C’mon Mr Key, it’s time to be bold.”
Exactly, it is about time New Zealand got a flat tax rate. A negative tax system would work quite nicely.
October 20th, 2009 at 3:14 pm
…modify drug policy to deal with the problems,
Do what the Portuguese have done?
October 20th, 2009 at 3:55 pm
@Stephen: yes, that would be my preference. Criminalisation of drugs creates a windfall profits, which gangs can take advantage of. Result is:
– no reduction in drug use that anybody has ever proven. Prohibition has never worked on any substance if there is demand
– increase in revenues for criminals, particularly gangs
– reduction in tax take for government, as a significant portion of the economy moves into the illegal sector
– reduced treatment options, as criminals don’t seek treatment for their illegal health issues
– easier access to under age kids than cigarettes
– large increases in prison population, and associated costs in justice and police
– increased crime, as people consort with criminals so as to get that fix – and you know what criminals suggest to you when you don’t have enough money (you’re a pretty girl, I have a deal for you, you’re a pretty boy…., you’re an ugly bugger, steal some cars for me)
Prohibition doesn’t work. Decriminalisation may be better, and it sure as hell won’t be worse. And we won’t imprison a big chunk of our population and enrich gangs.
October 20th, 2009 at 8:50 pm
right.. decriminalise weed and abolish the dole! thats the only way it would work for me.
and its crap if u think population will make us grow economically. that will just make the smart people rich.
we should have only two ways into the country. marriage or 1 mill cash.
productivity not population.
October 20th, 2009 at 10:03 pm
What to do with a 60% poll rating.
Sit back, relax, ponder on how wonderful you are, and continue to shit on the people who voted you in. Those people who have the common decency and common sense to never vote for a labour government regardless of the options available.
It’s no surprise this poll rating, the bludgers, malingerers, junkies, greedy minority groups, rich people with kids … (the list is endless) are still receiving what they got under labour, of course they are happy.
October 20th, 2009 at 10:18 pm
What can you do with 60% of nothing?
National isn’t doing anything different – with this much approval the Nats should be stripping away every single part of the Clark administration NOT adding to it.
How sad is it that under Key we don’t even know if we’re going to be taxed more or less? That the ETS is still going to be forced onto us and that ACC may very well stay exactly the same as it was under Labour?
This is a hollow 60%.