Electorate Projections
Kiwi Poll Guy applies his maths to the current poll ratings, to project how many electorate seats each party could expect – based on overall poll ratings.
Currently National has 41 seats, Labour 21, Maori 5 and one each to ACT, United and Progressive.
KPG projects:
- National 50
- Labour 12
- ACT 1
- Maori 5 – 6
- Progressive 1
- United 1 (58% chance of retaining Ohariu)
Now these are of course mathematical calculations, and do not take into account individual issues and people in each seat.
I recommend people subscribe to KPG, if you are a devoted poll watcher.
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Tags: Kiwi Poll Guy, Polls
November 20th, 2009 at 7:27 am
Kiwi Poll Guy, what did you use in your simulation? Monte-carlo or some other methods? Just curious, because I think I saw something on the internet that predictors in the US, were using not monte-carlo but some machine learning methods to predict the outcome of the US election.
November 20th, 2009 at 7:38 am
I find these “projections” (like the “if an election was held now” things they do on TV) of slight curiosity value at best, especially this early in a term. If they could credibly project what is likely to change politically over the next two years they might be a little more interesting.
November 20th, 2009 at 8:05 am
Progressives 1? Surely Jim Il Sung is retiring…
November 20th, 2009 at 8:40 am
good one metcalph .. he has let his blind followers go back to the Labour Party and he might as well 1/ go back to the fold now that HELLen has gone or 2/ pull the pin and retire .. i choose 2
November 20th, 2009 at 9:20 am
Good to see the Greens AWOl pity Bradford didn’tstay to finish a Coup de Gras.
November 20th, 2009 at 9:32 am
It’s only the electorate seats, not the list seats that Greens get so they are not necessarily out of the total equation.
November 20th, 2009 at 9:38 am
There’s no doubt that in some electorates the hardest part of getting elected is winning a party nomination, as National or Labour candidates are almost automatically elected, depending on the way the electorate leans. Others are more uncertain, of course, but there does seem to be a weighting in provincial seats towards National, especially in 2005 and 2008. Did the KPG analysis take that sort of stuff into account?