November 20, 2009 7:00am by David Farrar

Electorate Projections

Kiwi Poll Guy applies his maths to the current poll ratings, to project how many electorate seats each party could expect – based on overall poll ratings.

Currently National has 41 seats, Labour 21, Maori 5 and one each to ACT, United and Progressive.

KPG projects:

  • National 50
  • Labour 12
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 5 – 6
  • Progressive 1
  • United 1 (58% chance of retaining Ohariu)

Now these are of course mathematical calculations, and do not take into account individual issues and people in each seat.

I recommend people subscribe to KPG, if you are a devoted poll watcher.