Comments on: Electorate Projections

By: Minnie

Minnie — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 20:38:43 +0000

There’s no doubt that in some electorates the hardest part of getting elected is winning a party nomination, as National or Labour candidates are almost automatically elected, depending on the way the electorate leans. Others are more uncertain, of course, but there does seem to be a weighting in provincial seats towards National, especially in 2005 and 2008. Did the KPG analysis take that sort of stuff into account?

By: Pete George

Pete George — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 20:32:35 +0000

It’s only the electorate seats, not the list seats that Greens get so they are not necessarily out of the total equation.

By: freethinker

freethinker — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 20:20:27 +0000

Good to see the Greens AWOl pity Bradford didn’tstay to finish a Coup de Gras.

By: jabba

jabba — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 19:40:49 +0000

good one metcalph .. he has let his blind followers go back to the Labour Party and he might as well 1/ go back to the fold now that HELLen has gone or 2/ pull the pin and retire .. i choose 2

By: metcalph

metcalph — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 19:05:59 +0000

Progressives 1? Surely Jim Il Sung is retiring…

By: Pete George

Pete George — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 18:38:31 +0000

I find these “projections” (like the “if an election was held now” things they do on TV) of slight curiosity value at best, especially this early in a term. If they could credibly project what is likely to change politically over the next two years they might be a little more interesting.

By: Falafulu Fisi

Falafulu Fisi — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 18:27:20 +0000

Kiwi Poll Guy, what did you use in your simulation? Monte-carlo or some other methods? Just curious, because I think I saw something on the internet that predictors in the US, were using not monte-carlo but some machine learning methods to predict the outcome of the US election.