iPredict this week
My iPredict column:
New Obama Stock
OBAMA.DISAP.1MAR pays out if President Obama’s disapprovals outweigh his approvals at 1 March 2010. He currently has an 8% margin – 52% to 44%.
The stock floated at 29c, and has been fairly constant for the last few days at just under 40c.
I am selling this stock. I think Obama’s numbers will still be positive in March. He should have passed his healthcare bill by then, which will give him a boost. Also in early 2010 he will do a state of the union address which traditionally should give him a boost also. Add to that a slowly improving economy.
2010 Polls
The poll stocks have got more complex, with a series of stocks that pay out depending on the level of support for National and Labour in the first Roy Morgan of 2010. NAT.JAN10.VLOW is at 14c and pays out if National polls under 48.5% in that first 2010 poll.
National has not been under 48.5% in the 18 Roy Morgan polls, so I’m selling this one also.
Most Traded Stocks
A lighter week. The petrol stocks had around $8,000 of trading, around $5,500 on the Roy Morgan polls and $3,000 on house prices.
Cheers,
David
Disclosure
David’s current iPredict positions are:
BROWN.RESIGN Short, DEP.GOFF.2010 Short, DEP.KING.2010 Short, DL.KING.09 Short, FASA04.REPEAL Short, GST.UP.JULY10 Short, LEAD.GOFF.09 Short, MAYOR.BROWN Long, MIN.DEPART2.09 Short, MP.ANDERTON Short, MP.PETERS.2011 Short, NAT.JAN10.VLOW Short, NAT.MAORI.09 Short, OBAMA.DISAP.1MAR Short, OCR.INCR.APR10 Short, OCR.INCR.JAN10 Short, OCR.INCR.JUL10 Short, PETERS.LEADER Long, PM.2011.NATIONAL Long, UK2010.CON.ABS Long, UK2010.CON.MAJ Short, ZIM.MUGABE Short
November 13th, 2009 at 9:15 am
how the hell do you figure passing the health care bill will give Obama a boost?!
November 13th, 2009 at 9:46 am
The Health care bill will give him a boost and he will see that it does in a series of brillent speeches. The Democrats will have to think hard before they vote against this measure because where the President goes they go. It is high wire politics and the close vote in the House suggests there will be difficulty passing it.
November 13th, 2009 at 11:04 am
Got this idea that a foreign crisis will be Obamas undoing, like Iran was Carters undoing. He has not been tested in this regard yet.
November 13th, 2009 at 3:26 pm
No share on Hone’s future? Surely this is a perfect one for iPredict? The press gallery all convinced his expulsion from Maori Party is a done deal, but I suspect they might be missing some of the internal politics or at least some of the nuance.
November 13th, 2009 at 11:55 pm
I think ipredict will have a share shortly.