I think you`ll find it takes the seats off Labour, gives at least one seat to National, and the rest swallow up the overhang.

And this stylish piece of shit is on our pay-roll. The Maori Party has everything to loose.

Fuck you Hone/John.

Joirs, please, where is my certificate for standing up to a black arsed bully? Huh? Can you post it to me, or have you lost my address.

Don’t you mean that most who are on the Maori Roll identify as Maori? For example, in 2001, about one in five people of Maori descent did not identify as Maori.

That takes seats off Labour and gives them to the Maori Party, who don’t actually receive them because of the existing overhang.

On election night, John Key stated “Today across the country, New Zealanders have voted for a safer, more prosperous and more ambitious New Zealand. They voted for hope, they voted for action, and they voted for results. They voted for a better life for all New Zealanders.”[1]

While those uplifting words no doubt remain the aspiration of most New Zealanders, it is now less certain whether the socialist constraints that have held us back during the nine long years of Labour’s rule will be removed.

Presently riding high in the polls, the National Party would do well to remember that inevitably the ‘Teflon’ falls off. When that happens the polls trend down and policy mistakes, especially those that rile public, usually come back to bite. And there are now a growing number of such policy mistakes. To name but four: the failure of the Prime Minister to respect the view of the overwhelming majority of New Zealanders in the smacking referendum; an astounding insensitivity to the country’s mounting concerns about racial issues; the cancellation of National’s major election promise of tax cuts; and the unprecedented bulldozing through of an economically disastrous – and totally unnecessary – emissions trading scheme.

It is worth putting National’s polling success into context. The September 2009 Colmar Brunton poll had National at 54 percent and Labour at 33 percent. Adding in the ratings of their support parties, the Maori Party and ACT both on 3 percent, puts the National-led Government on 60 percent. The Prime Minister comes in at a 50 percent approval rating with the Leader of the Opposition, Phil Goff, at 9 percent.

However, looking back to a time when the Labour Government was riding high in the polls, the June 2002 Colmar Brunton poll had Labour on 53 percent and National on 27 percent. When the Greens on 9 percent and the Progressives on 1.7 percent were included, the Labour-led Government had a poll rating of almost 64 percent. Helen Clark’s approval rating as PM at that time was at 52 percent, and while Bill English, as Leader of the Opposition gained a 17 percent approval rating, within three months he had slumped to 9 percent.

In other words, polling positions are fragile, and as National starts its second year in government, it would do well to start listening to the public and correct the major mistakes it has already made – while it still has the luxury of time.

More at;
http://www.nzcpr.com/weekly205.htm

Don’t mean to be a pedant DPF but “decimate” means to reduce by 10%.

[DPF: Most who identify as Maori are on the Maori roll. Those of the general roll tend to be of Maori descent, but do not self-identify as Maori]

Hmmmmm, you seem to have left this bit out David, odd for someone closely involved in polling.
The general trends could be valid, but revealing information behind polls helps provide perspective and legitimacy.
The Dom Post and Marae had a warning, but the Herald seem to have ignored it, funny that.

[DPF: The results are significant, despite the sample size. For example it is 96.5% probably that National leads Labour amongst Maori voters on the general roll]

Previously, the Maori seats were a gerrymander that benefited Labour. With the Maori party coming in, they benefited the Maori party, but the Maori party were presumed to always work with Labour (last cab off the rank and all).

If they are going to hold the balance of power and swing both ways, then I can see both the major parties might prefer the Maori seats gone, but also need to keep the Maori party sweet to as to get into power.

If the Maori party are going to work with National, and then work out that the politics of aspiration will do way more for their people than the politics of envy, that could be spectacularly bad news for Labour.

IMHO Key’s cancelled tax cuts + Ryall’s health proposals are strongly reassuring a lot of left voters that this Nat govt is not about slashing & burning state services.

But how much of this, do you reckon, is thanks to the current Labour vacuum?

[DPF: Oh it is a mixture of the two, plus some other factors. I think Therese Arseanau is right when she says that it is partly because Labour's 2008 campaign against Key was so negative, that people have discovered it was not true]