Labour selections

November 24th, 2009 at 9:00 am by David Farrar

The Herald reports:

’s nominations for and four other seats it views as winnable opened on Friday as part of a strategy to get recognisable candidates on the ground early.

I may be wrong, but I can not recall any other time when a party has gone to candidate selection (for a seat not held) within a year of the election. Normally selections are late in the second year of a three year term. Sometimes earlier in the second year, but never heard of selection starting in the first year.

I’m speculating that Labour had a few nervous List MPs, and they didn’t want them fighting each other all year for seats, so they decided to minimise any in-fighting.

Ms Ardern has confirmed she is putting her name forward to be Labour’s candidate in 2011, meaning the high-profile race will start almost two years before the election.

Ms Kaye won the seat for National for the first time at the last election, and Labour is desperate to get it back. …

Ms Ardern, who is originally from Morrinsville, has recently moved to Auckland and said she was passionate about the city and enjoying life as an “apartment dweller”.

Jacinda was highly ranked by Labour in 2005, and is one of their more able MPs. As she said, she has just moved to Auckland, and in fact she is still officially the shadow MP for Waikato and the Bay of Plenty. I think her office is actually in Tauranga.

Ms Ardern has been able to avoid an internal party struggle for the nomination, with fellow list MP deciding to go for , currently held by National minister Paula Bennett and another of the seats Labour is holding early selection for.

You almost have to feel sorry for Twyford. He’s basically been shafted again (after the Tizard factor had him withdraw from Mt Albert). Jacinda had the numbers on the ground to win the looming selection battle, so Phil has (wisely) decided to concede. However as his office is in Auckland Central (in fact he set it up just two doors away from Nikki Kaye, the National Electorate MP) it is all going to be somewhat strange.

The Waitakere candidate has his office in St Marys Bays, and the Auckland Central candidate has her office in Tauranga. Aucklanders are less parochial than provincial seats, but may still find the carpet-bagging a factor.

Mr Twyford, the party’s Auckland Issues spokesman, said he believed Waitakere should be a Labour seat and its loss was a “temporary blip”.

I think Phil will do better if he doesn’t say things like that. It comes across as somewhat arrogant and a sense of entitlement to the seat. What I would have said is:

I believe that Labour’s values are the values of most Waitakere residents, and I am looking forward for the opportunity to contest and win the seat.

Talking of a temporary blip, suggests you think the voters made a horrible mistake, and that it will right itself given time.

Normally in Opposition, you hope to win seats back, and don’t expect to lose any more. But on current polling, Labour needs to worry about some of the 21 seats it still retains, as well as try and claw some back.

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21 Responses to “Labour selections”

  1. MT_Tinman (3,187 comments) says:

    Maybe Labour have noted the groundswell of disgust about the ETS fiasco and are anticipating the physical removal of the current totally corrupt shower by mobs of justifiably angry citizens and are preparing for the soon-to-follow (we hope) elections.

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  2. dimmocrazy (286 comments) says:

    Indeed, one starts to wonder what DPF is smoking in Algeria. He just keeps blabbering on and on about irrelevant subjects like the rest of the MSM, completely bypassing the real relevant topics.

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  3. tvb (4,422 comments) says:

    Both still have that strong sense of entitlement. That all they have to do when criticising any reforms is that is a secret agenda for PRIVITISATION. Twyford seems particularly vocal on this point. I doubt generation x y or z have the faintest clue what he is on about.

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  4. expat (4,050 comments) says:

    Have to agree David, considering the trend for Labour is *still* down, and the ongoing insouciance regarding their birthright to support from inner city & urban electorates you’ve got to put a couple of bucks on some other safe seats being lost.

    Happy days, the idiots are running the Labour asylum.

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  5. OldNews (38 comments) says:

    I’m surprised that you think Ardern “is one of their more able MPs”?? If her posts on RedAlert or her blatherings on Breakfast are anything to go by she’s one of their most economic illiterate.

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  6. Countess (150 comments) says:

    Carpet bagging .
    You had Pansy Wong who was a list candidate in Christchurch for 2 elections, who moved to Auckland Central, and contested that seat for two more elections before tearing across town to the new seat of Botany. the word you are looking for is
    OPPORTUNIST

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  7. Pete George (23,567 comments) says:

    Seems like a good idea to select early and let the candidates get to know the electorates and for the electorates to get to know them. But it would help big time if they got all candidates to do Communicating With Ordinary People 101. And it wouldn’t hurt for them to also do Breaking Out of the Bullshit Bubble.

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  8. Tim Ellis (251 comments) says:

    There is a very interesting discussion going on at Red Alert about Labour’s Mt Albert selection earlier in the year. Reported comments in the media made by Mr Goff were that Mr Shearer won the floor vote at the Mt Albert selection. There were other reports at the time that this was not the case.

    I have asked MPs at Red Alert to verify whether Mr Shearer won the floor vote at the Mt Albert selection, as there were credible reports that he did not. First Ms Curran said she was going to “verify” with Mr Shearer. She then responded that I was engaging in “deliberate mistruths” about the selection. Grant Robertson has then edited a further comment I made on the issue saying that my suggestion that Mr Shearer may not have won the floor vote was “unverifiable”.

    This unverifiability surprises me, since Mr Goff at the time claimed that there were 200 local members at the Mount Albert selection. Surely one of those present, including Mr Goff, could confirm whether Mr Shearer won the floor vote.

    Either Mr Shearer won the floor vote in Mt Albert or he didn’t. This cone of silence is very unusual.

    It will be interesting to see if this lack of transparency plays out in the Auckland Central and Waitakere selections.

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  9. Bevan (3,924 comments) says:

    Maybe Labour have noted the groundswell of disgust about the ETS fiasco and are anticipating the physical removal of the current totally corrupt shower by mobs of justifiably angry citizens and are preparing for the soon-to-follow (we hope) elections.

    Why on earth would Labour think we want them back – they would be ten times worse and I shudder to think what kind of ETS monstrosity they would fource upon the country.

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  10. Falafulu Fisi (2,179 comments) says:

    OldNews said…
    If her posts on RedAlert or her blatherings on Breakfast are anything to go by she’s one of their most economic illiterate.

    I agree with you here. I posted a reference to a paper (on her blog post on rising youth unemployment) which was published by one of the world’s leading expert economic professor in youth unemployment & minimum wage issues, that pointed out that setting minimum wages is the problem. She then came back with a similar post a week later at Red Alert still proposing that the government should do something because it failed to come up with policies that combat rising youth unemployment. I wondered if she had any attempt to read the article or not? If she read it, the question to ask, did she understand it? If she did, then why did she post the same blog post topic a week later , given that the paper must have highlighted the problem clearly to her. It is beyond belief, if she didn’t attempt to read the document because I think our MPs should read as much as they can, so their minds could then widen up and see the issues clearly when they draft or propose new legislations.

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  11. Pete George (23,567 comments) says:

    Falafulu Fisi, I think a lot of MPs may be like a lot of blog posters – they choose their agenda or position on an issue and then find and read things to back that up. It’s not volume of reading material that matters, it’s quality and variety.

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  12. Falafulu Fisi (2,179 comments) says:

    Pete said…
    they choose their agenda or position on an issue and then find and read things to back that up.

    Yes, the reference that I posted on her blog post was a link to an economic peer review paper, which backed up the fact that when you set minimum wages, then youth unemployment will rise. Do you understand what peer review research publication is about Pete? Ms Ardern can ignore blog opinion of commentators which we all do, but you can’t ignore case studies, if you’re a person that sits on a committee and with a stroke of a pen, you could in fact, affect the lives of many citizens.

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  13. MT_Tinman (3,187 comments) says:

    Bevan (1697) Vote: Add rating 1 Subtract rating 0 Says:
    November 24th, 2009 at 10:26 am

    Maybe Labour have noted the groundswell of disgust about the ETS fiasco and are anticipating the physical removal of the current totally corrupt shower by mobs of justifiably angry citizens and are preparing for the soon-to-follow (we hope) elections.

    Why on earth would Labour think we want them back – they would be ten times worse and I shudder to think what kind of ETS monstrosity they would fource upon the country.

    I quite agree (except with the spelling).

    Note I never said anything about them winning, just that they have noted that the level of disgust at the current shower has nearly reached the point where a civil insurrection will happen.

    As an aside the ETS bullshit currently being purchased by the corrupt few will cost NZ a damned sight more than the $2b train set.

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  14. Inventory2 (10,342 comments) says:

    Twyford is not helped by sharing his name, as Gooner noted at No Minister, with a brand of lavatory porcelain :-)

    http://nominister.blogspot.com/2009/11/pissing-on-twyford.html

    He’s certainly received a fair old watering from within his own party!

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  15. Pete George (23,567 comments) says:

    Do you understand what peer review research publication is about

    Yes. It is different from peering into the Internet to find something you want to see.

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  16. Falafulu Fisi (2,179 comments) says:

    Pete said…
    Yes. It is different from peering into the Internet to find something you want to see.

    So, if I am a policy-maker and I want to peer into the internet to find out if drafting a legislation to set minimum wages is a good thing or a bad thing and my preconceived idea is that it is a good thing (with no shred of evidence to support that), then what should I expect to find? Nil. Do you still go on to draft legislation based on no evidence or you should do it according to evidence right in front of your eyes? I’ll leave it to you to digest that question, since it seems to me that you have a hard time understanding of what I am talking about.

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  17. Falafulu Fisi (2,179 comments) says:

    Peter, here is the expert, Prof. David Neumark, that I cited his work at Red-Alert’s blog post on rising youth unemployment by Ms Ardern. You can download some of his more recent publications from his site (Research Section).

    In fact, if reading peer review papers is something too hard (even for Ms Ardern), then at least, one can Google the name Neumark and you can find lots of references to him, in which they are readable to the general public. Here is one from Wall Street Journal.

    The Young and the Jobless

    The WSJ article above is digestible to non-experts if peer review is something to be avoided, since peer review is not aimed for the general public.

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  18. Robert Winter (100 comments) says:

    Professor Neumark is but one commentator. For example, the equally, possibly more eminent, UK labour economist, David Metcalf (LSE), has suggested a quite different outcome on the basis of copious UK data. He, too, is peer-reviewed. This is not a closed debate by any means.

    Why has the British National Minimum Wage had Little or No Impact on Employment?
    David Metcalf
    Journal of Industrial Relations, Vol. 50, No. 3, 489-512 (2008)

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  19. Falafulu Fisi (2,179 comments) says:

    Robert, I’ve just quickly went through the first few pages of David Metcalf’s paper you quoted above, and it covers issues related to adult minimum wage and not youth minimum wage, which is not what I was talking about in my previous messages, so your hero’s work is inapplicable to what is on discussion here. It’s obvious that you didn’t read that paper. Ms Ardern sits on a parliamentary committee hearing that looks into youth unemployment rate and it is not the same as adult minimum wage issue, is it? Second, David’s paper rehashes what authors of other papers had published previously (ie, he had no data of his own to work with). Third and it is very important, he cited references that used very simple descriptive statistics (bean counting). Dr Neumark’s studies used more robust methods from multivariate statistics (factor analysis). What’s the difference? Multivariate analysis can eliminate data redundancies which may lead to incorrect results while descriptive statistics can’t.

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  20. Robert Winter (100 comments) says:

    Read on and follow the references – and don’t put too much faith in multivariate analysis – it’s subject to the GIGO principle as is any technique. Complexity does not equal accuracy and, as is increasingly the case in Economics, one can be blinded by technique, to the detriment of understanding.

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  21. Rachael Rich (204 comments) says:

    Labour are in campaign mode at the moment.

    Read the blogs, the papers or listen to talkback and all you get is “I voted National but never again blah blah blah….” Classic Labour party talking points all over the place at present.

    It may be that Phil In is trying to get the polls up before the BBQs come out for summer.

    There are ructions between the left and right of the party – the usual spotty hacks are not happy with Phils moves in the right direction.

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