Hooton on 2025
December 4th, 2009 at 4:21 pm by David FarrarMatthew Hooton writes in NBR:
In the government’s defence, its two major strategic decisions have been absolutely right.
First was Bill English’s decision to resist calls to stimulate the domestic economy, beyond the effect of the automatic stabilisers and Michael Cullen’s election bribes, in response to the financial crisis.
Second was Mr Key’s absolute determination to maintain trust with the people. …
The problem is that the desire to maintain sound political strategy has overwhelmed its raison d’être. Some in the Beehive now see it as an end not a means.
Worse, one or two appear to believe that the government’s high poll ratings mean they are some kind of political miracle-workers.
Wiser Beehive heads understand that there is nothing surprising about a new government – especially one which has defeated a tired, hectoring and corrupt regime – achieving 50%+ in the polls, simply by keeping its promises, managing the daily news cycle and ruling anything out that doesn’t enjoy clear public support.
The difficult bit is turning this into a worthwhile legacy. Unfortunately, there appears to be no plan or even informal modus operandi to integrate political management with policy goals. …
Ludicrous policies will continue, like interest-free student loans, and free GP visits and daycare for the children of millionaires. Labour’s Working for Families, which traps people with massive effective marginal tax rates and which Mr Key described accurately as “communism by stealth”, is now defended.
It’s easy to accept the political logic of all these moves but their cumulative effect is that it’s difficult to see what levers Mr Key has left if he truly wants to achieve anything important with his prime ministership.
I agree that the numbers of levers remaining is relatively few. I think the 2010 budget is an important one. National needs to do more than merely announce how it has allocated the $1.1 billion spending contigency.
December 4th, 2009 at 4:43 pm
The biggest threat the country faces is a government that doesnt take the right actions for the good of all citizens.
In my humble opinion since I was first able to caste a vote in 1972 only one government the 1984/87 government has governed for the good of all the citizens.
Every other government including this one has governed on either the populist opinion or as with the failed 1999/2008 government working towards policies the people dont want and are bad for them.
If we dont get a government that has the will capacity and capability to govern for the good of the whole then we are condemed to a reduction in our living standards and an increasing control from those who we have borrowed from or who own our means of production.
Its very simple as Charles Dickens wrote
Income one pound expenditure nineteen shillings and sixpence Result happiness
Income one pound expenditure twenty shillings and sixpence Result Misery
Vote:December 4th, 2009 at 4:50 pm
Yes it does need to do more than that. And, it would ordinarily be proper to ask “will it?”.
I think the answer to that question is worth a prediction on iPredict. I could make a lot of money selling short.
Vote:December 4th, 2009 at 5:01 pm
have said it often, will say it again. John Key cant be all things to all people, when he learns that, he is part way there….
There is never a truer saying “Nice guys always come second”
Vote:December 4th, 2009 at 5:41 pm
The problem for National is that you take risks in Opposition, not in Government. They are the government, don’t want to take risks but now, it seems, everyone – Left, Right, Ludicrous Right – agrees that the government has no strategy, other than to win in 2011. And, when it comes to its manifesto for 2011, there will be political pressure for not much change, for why, politically, would you risk the current political advantage? Just imagine the political fall-out if Mr Key went all Richardson or Douglas. Of course, it’s not just Labour that has barbecues, and Ms O’Sullivan wants the invitations to be sent.
Vote:December 4th, 2009 at 5:49 pm
Am I the only one getting worried about this obsession with tidying up after Labour?
Has to be done, but its just the housekeeping, not the real issue.
The electorate would accept the adjustment pain if there was some serious vision and excitement. I saw none of that in the 2025 Task Force report – just more of the same old stuff we heard from Roger and Ruth a couple of decades ago. It’s not that its wrong, It’s just that surely we need something a hell of a lot more ambitious to catch up with a fast moving target like Aussie growth.
To hell with cycle ways. Where are the schemes to boost farm irrigation and double our agricultural production? Water for food production is our most obvious competitive advantage. Why are we saying not to bother too much about economic union with Aus because it only accounts for a quarter of our trade? Sheesh, it should be half or more if we opened up the borders with our neighbour as they do in Europe.
Pissing around dishing our unpleasant medicine again. Didn’t make the plebs happy in the late 80s – early 90s and won’t now. Time to bring back a visionary economic growth approach like we have hardly ever seen in NZ politics since Vogel.
Vote:December 4th, 2009 at 6:25 pm
hooten is another one who needs to go and watch the recant/ma culpa from alan greenspan..
where he admits his whole economic worldview/policies were/are ‘wrong’..
‘cos hooten is another one..like brash/act..still trying to flog/peddle that dodgy snake-oil..
any economic revolution/rejuvenation will have to be ‘green at core..
and neither ‘more of the same’..nor the failed policies of the past..
..(as being peddled by both hooten and brash.).
are in any way anywhere near any ‘answers’..
phil(whoar.co.nz)
Vote:December 4th, 2009 at 6:40 pm
Second was Mr Key’s absolute determination to maintain trust with the people. …
Hooten jests, surely?
Far better to say, “maintain the appearance of trust with the people”, and even then with his refusal to listen to 89% of the population over the results of the referendum, he’s stumbled badly. Let’s not even get into the whole ETS thing, which hasn’t hit the consciousness, or the hip pocket, of the average Kiwi yet.
[DPF: You mistake keeping election promises with doing what you want him to do. Key made quite clear before the election his policy on Section 59 and his policy on an ETS. You may not like those policies, but he has kept trust with the people to basically do what he said he would do]
Vote:December 4th, 2009 at 6:56 pm
“..with his refusal to listen to 89% of the population over the results of the referendum,.”
it was 89% of 53% of the population..not ’89% of the population’..
why do you rightwingers have such problems with basic facts..?
is yr twisting of them contrived..?
or just evidence of confusion..?
it’s either one..or the other..
phil(whoar.co.nz)
Vote:December 4th, 2009 at 6:59 pm
“The biggest threat the country faces is a government that doesnt take the right actions for the good of all citizens.”
lastmanstanding, you left about the bit about doing so when it knows it’s against its own best interests. That to me is the mark of a good govt. To take the correct but unpopular course and damn the torpedoes.
Phil, if you think Hayeckian economics is dead, you’re dreaming and you’re wrong. If Lange hadn’t stopped for a cup of tea and allowed Douglas to complete his ground breaking work which was later adopted by all the successful economies including China, we would have been much sweeter today for they work, provided you regulate PROPERLY and not improperly as has happened in the US [but as you and I know, that was deliberate]. Unless one gets past the perception that making money is evil, one will never understand. The oft-quoted verse that money is the root of all evil is beloved by socialists the world over and you know what? They’re wrong. It’s the love of money that’s the root of all evil and that’s a distinction that socialists can’t or won’t make. And until you do, you’ll never understand Rogernomics, Reaganomics or Thatcherism; at the heart of which, was Hayek, the most astute economist the world has ever seen.
Lucia, I agree, and I think he’s listening to higher powers on this issue. I don’t like it either, but he’s a realist.
Vote:December 4th, 2009 at 7:32 pm
Reid, I usually agree with you but not this time. I am not a Reagan fan. He just about put the US on its knee with the saving and loans failure. Pretty much what happened with the banks now. He took controls out of the banking industry. Not good. HIs star wars program was a sham costing us billions. He also took the common deductions away from the average family which didn’t help at all. I could go on. Yes Key might be a realist but I truly think he has no plan. His timing was right because people were tired of the corruption of Helen Clark and Michael Cullen. When people start paying out of their pocket more than they have to, hopefully things will backfire on Key, like registering your car, 100 dollars more and petrol and electricity prices going up. The public likes to put its head in the sand but there will be a day of reckoning with Key. .
Vote:December 4th, 2009 at 7:48 pm
jack, I may be wrong because I haven’t closely researched and verified but my perception is:
Saving and Loans wasn’t Reagan’s fault. It happened under his watch, but I sheet that debacle home to Bush 41.
He took controls out of the banking industry – I agree, regulations are required. The US lobbyists are v powerful, have too much influence, and Reagan should have exercised judgement. The fact he didn’t is a black mark.
Star Wars was a sham but it was designed from the start to bankrupt the USSR, not to defend the US. It was the straw the broke the back, which was already weakened. It only succeeded because he had a willing accomplice in Gorbachev and I think it was shameful the way the CIA exacerbated the fallen empires pain. When you’re at war however, and they were, anything goes.
I agree Key has not shown us his plan. That doesn’t mean he doesn’t have one…
Vote:December 4th, 2009 at 7:53 pm
If by this time next year we haven’t seen enough of a decent economic reform plan from Key/National then I think the “day of reckoning” will start to build momentum. But on current form it doesn’t look like Labour will be a credible challenge next election so the Nats will get a second shot at it.
Most of the critical noise so far seems to be from those who would probably never be satisfied by a moderate National government, and their expectations for major immediate moves was total dreamland.
Vote:December 4th, 2009 at 8:08 pm
phil, phil, phil…
normally, I just bypass your comments …
not because you don’t have anything valid to say …
i think you do …
but honestly, how can you type like this ? / eh?
it’s painful …
the polls, phil, the polls, remember the polls …
all around 80-90% …
apparently they do represent the population …
that 89% of the 53% of the population that were interested enough to vote …
huge number, eh?, phil, that number of people who made the effort to vote in a postal vote . ?
ignore them at your peril !!!!!!!
Vote:December 4th, 2009 at 8:17 pm
yes..it is a very reactionary/brutal society/culture we live in..
your point..?..
aside from that..?
phil(whoar.co.nz)
Vote:December 4th, 2009 at 8:35 pm
53% of the population is about the same as votes in any election. The vote base is (from memory) somewhere around 2 million.
Vote:December 4th, 2009 at 8:54 pm
Rod 5 49 You have hit on what IMHO is a fundamental opportunity for real growth.
Vote:A control dam on Lake Sumner will give the Hurunui River a summer stability and at the same time give some economic growth to the areas around Harwarden/Medbury and maintain healthy summer flows in the river.
What the Opua dam did for the health of that river has been proven beneficial for the river and the land downstream at the sacrifice of roughly 600 acres of the Fairlie basin.
All the proposal for Lake Sumner involved was to maintain a normal new level at maxflood level so really only making the flood level the max but slowing the release of water. The flat earthers have a different take Duh!
So many of the Canterbury rivers dont suit Dams because of Shingle carriage but Lake Sumner gives a unique opportunity.
My childhood memories of the Amuri plain as a browntop danthonia tussock semi desert compared to what it is today defies belief; green, productive, easy on the eye .
So many of our S I power schemes were developed on the basis of harnessing an opportunity as opposed to creating a resource.
There must be many opportunities to bring water from the headwaters of Westcoast rivers east along the lines of the Snowey River Scheme of the postwar Australian drive for hydro growth. God knows the Westcoast rivers don’t need all the Summer flows but the Eatcoast rivers do even before the advent of irrigation which in spite of the views of those opposed to any progress is here to stay so lets look for ways to make it better for all.
December 4th, 2009 at 9:28 pm
I strongly suggest matthew being employed as top adviser to Key before Key blows the high poll ratings he currently enjoys.Although i have not seen hooters opinion on climategate.A sane adviser would give key advise to start digging for gold and ask for prison time on climate fraud.
Vote:December 4th, 2009 at 11:03 pm
Oh the poor righties, feeling all let down?
The issue is your policies (calling free visits to GP’s ludicrous for example) are political suicide, Key knows that and is unlikely to implement them.
Your real problem chaps is you are in a tiny, tiny minority in wishing to impose you free market worldview on the majority.
Perhaps that is why you always so bitter?
Vote:December 5th, 2009 at 1:42 am
GPs doesn’t need an apostrophe because it’s a plural, chronic.
Vote:December 5th, 2009 at 6:40 am
sonic, your’s is easily the most embittered post in this thread.
Vote:December 5th, 2009 at 6:46 am
“I agree Key has not shown us his plan. That doesn’t mean he doesn’t have one…”
Unfounded optimism on your part.
The reality is Neville Key has no clue at all. He is just coasting along in a detached manner, meandering around the path, while trying to please the racists to avoid losing power. He dodges the hard issues and passes responsibility to criminally incompetent non-performers like Nick Smith.
Twelve months into his term, has Key shown decisiveness, balls, or political courage during this time? The answer is a resounding NO.
Key is not fit for the job.
Out with the dead wood, bring some true leader capable of undertaking the reforms New Zealand needs to lift its performance and economy.
Vote:December 5th, 2009 at 8:21 am
Reid, Reagan surrounded himself with 4 men. Rumsfield, Cheney, and Baker and of course Bush Sr. Now, please look at the results since these men have been running the country dictating to Bush Jr. Death, destruction, and now economic collapse. OIl companies and defense contractors making billions. I might add, the Rand Corportation, the think tank for the government during the Vietnam War, informed the government that Russia will no longer be a threat back in the 60′s. While the US had over 400 nuclear war heads, Russia only had a fraction of that. They also suggested to Johnson not to bomb Hanoi because it would move more North Vietnam Army and the Viet Cong to South Vietnam and would be harder to defend. That’s exactly what happened. I use the last example to show the Rand Corporation’s credibility. Russia wasn’t the threat it was made out to be. Your right, the star wars was the straw that broke the camels back, but was it necessary??
Vote:December 5th, 2009 at 8:25 am
I am afraid I get a little impatient with the idiots who try to make points/ capital that millionaires and the like get benefits/pensions etc. There are so few of them relatively speaking and they pay so much more tax than I do so what is the point in bothering about it .. it is stupid politicing of the most petty sort.
I thought the GPs was the thing I use to work out where I am at sea
It was 89% of the 53% WHO BOTHERED TO VOTE so the rest should be ignored since they don’t care enough to get their finger out. Of course the politicians stuffed the ref up by the stupid statements that the question was nonsense … it was pretty plain and to the point by my reading … but then I’m not a damm fool politician.
Vote:December 5th, 2009 at 9:23 am
The problem is that New Zealand is in the minority. We are living beyond our means and have to change or die. Even this morning there is an article in the NZ Herald detailing how we “very nearly became the Iceland of the South Pacific”.
We are not out of this by a long stretch and having policies like “free” *cough* doctors visits is economically unsustainable – as our debt to the world shows. We have lived beyond our means for such a long time now that we see it as normal, whereas other countries put themselves through the pain of doing so. By delaying the inevitable we make the crash ever more likely and deeper as a result. The upshot of this is that there won’t be any money for ANY welfare programs, let alone those that are plainly beyond our capacity to fund. By targetting spending at those who would otherwise have the capability to fend for themselves, you create dependency and as a consequence, mediocrity.
And the worst thing is that those who can help us our of our situation (our most highly skilled) can just pull up the tentpegs when it happens, leaving those who aren’t as valued on the world stage to pick up the pieces and try again.
Vote:December 5th, 2009 at 10:12 am
jackp, my reading of Reagan is that Bush 41 was operating behind his back and those men you mentioned were his men, not Reagan’s. Bush was a most capable, devious man and a bastard, quite frankly. I believe it was Bush 41 who was behind Iran-Contra, and that was a white-washed travesty. I know Washington politicians get away with a lot but if they’d taken the opportunity to prosecute the people behind it we would have avoided the Gulf War, because Saddam only invaded after he thought he’d received the green light from Washington.
Those guys you mention were also behind PNAC – Project for the New American Century, and when Bush 43 got in, a Pearl Harbour moment came along in the form of 911, just what PNAC had suggested was needed – how convenient. Then Homeland Security arose like a Phoenix, announced so soon after 911 it was as if there was a plan already waiting in the wings and all those empty FEMA camps were built, dotted throughout the US. Iraq was invaded on deliberately falsified premises, the US Constitution was eviscerated with repeal of Posse Commitatus and Patriot Acts I and II, Heroin poppies exploded throughout Afghanistan after having been completely wiped out during the Taliban reign. I mean with all the resources they have couldn’t the US have simply used aerial spraying and satellite surveillance to nip it in the bud before it became the problem it now is, given that the Taliban now use it to finance their weapons purchases.
There are other events as well like the Haliburton contracts you mention and of course, like everyone, I have no more evidence beyond what’s available on the web. However to me those circumstances taken together tell an undeniable story, which I’ve also seen emerge during Clinton’s time as well. To me, Reagan was the last good guy but maybe I was just too young to remember what he really did.
Vote:December 5th, 2009 at 10:21 am
My point, Phil,
is that how is Key maintaining the trust of the people when he ignores them when they speak to him loud and clear?
Trust goes both ways. It’s not just, trust me, I know what I’m doing.
It’s also changing tack when the people tell you you are dead wrong.
But John Key didn’t take any notice of the people, beyond getting uncomfortable himself and cranking up the spin. I don’t know how many times he said he wanted to give the parents of NZ “comfort” over the issue. I personally didn’t want “comfort”. Comfort to me is having the law changed, not having some weasel politician try and assure me that it won’t do what the law says it will do.
If that’s John Key’s idea of “maintaining trust with the people”, he gets a big fail for that one.
Vote:December 5th, 2009 at 10:56 am
I suggest Mr. Key should stop admiring himself and start doing some work for a change. Put in place a real concrete economic project to create jobs and stop fiddling with the tax and monetary systems. It was obvious that he came into office with nothing and he’ll resign leaving nothing when all is gambled away.
The Arabs are likely to raise oil price on the back of the Dubai fall which will offset inflation and having no alternative reserve, we’ll be deep in a quagmire.
The petrol station has become our major inland revenue agency, and the police a traffic collection agency, while the cowboys are making a killing out of pensioners….
Vote:December 5th, 2009 at 10:57 am
my point..lucia..
is how puzzled i am that so many people want to hit children..
(n.b..i have raisd two children..one girl..one boy..one adult..one fifteen..
..neither have been hit..
so..i know you don’t need to..
..which only compounds my puzzlement/’point’..
phil(whoar.co.nz)
Vote:December 5th, 2009 at 11:05 am
Anyone who thinks that Key does not have a long term plan is very disallusioned.
Think about it, if you can stop and think.
You do not get to be a top financial market manager by not having plans, but you never divulge these until the timing is right –
particularly with the incompetent media in this country – you only have to look at the crap from Rod Oram.
Vote:December 5th, 2009 at 11:31 am
Phil,
No one wants to hit children.
I don’t even like punishing mine.
But, if children are left to run riot, you can create little monsters. The worst behaved child I know (and the most violent) is one that is never physically disciplined. But I’m not saying that all children who are not physically disciplined are like this, what I am saying is that some children, if not disciplined appropriately, will turn out bad. Their parents are typically far more likely to know what is needed than anyone else, because their parents love them and normally just want to do what is best.
So, parents do what they have to, and don’t want the Government coming in and telling them that something that is not harmful should be illegal.
But, irrespective of how a person feels about S59 and the physical disciplining of children, if the PM is trying to maintain the trust of the people and he ignores what they tell him – then he’s failed. Big time.
Vote:December 5th, 2009 at 1:04 pm
Reid, under his watch as president a lot of bad things happened and those men did take advantage of him even when he was semi conscious in the hospital. They told him one thing and made him sign something else. I have to hand it to Reagan. He walked away without a blemish on his reputation. Everyone wanted to like him because of his history in the movies and as governor of California. Then President of the US. He was a very likable person because he used plain talk. But with all that happened, he still walked away unscathed. That is incredible. I don’t think John Key has the history and as I said, there will be a day of reckoning unless he does something. He’s better than labour, I admit, but not much since he ignored the referendum and bought the ETS.
Vote: