Comments on: November Public Polls

By: stephen

stephen — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 19:53:00 +0000

I cautiously concur. Expected a slightly warmer response to Brash’s taskforce, otherwise probably would’ve been more certain.

By: Grant Michael McKenna

Grant Michael McKenna — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 09:14:59 +0000

PaulL, I think that you are correct. Edit: but ideologues want action now; stability is not their concern.

By: PaulL

PaulL — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 06:29:38 +0000

getstaffed: I don’t actually have a solution. What I can say is that telling pollsters that you are now thinking about voting Labour is very unlikely to have the effect of driving Key to the right. That’s basic logic.

If there were a lot of people telling pollsters that they were going to vote ACT, that might have the effect of dragging National across.

My view is that Key’s first term is about trust with the public. Not scaring them too much, keeping National’s promises. It hurts for those of us who’d like more rapid reform, but you have to remember that the general population have spent 10 years being told that right wingers are evil baby eating monsters. Once you get through one term and no babies have been eaten, the population will probably be ready for some changes:
– sell some state owned assets that don’t need to be state owned – particularly things like farms and state houses in expensive suburbs
– open ACC to competition
– maybe a small scale voucher pilot in schools
– maybe a small scale private provision pilot in hospitals
– some private prisons
– some toll roads

Then, in the third term you go for broke, as you’re very unlikely to get a fourth term anyway. Pretty much like Helen and Cullen did.

By: getstaffed

getstaffed — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 03:31:46 +0000

PaulL – Should Key insulate all NZers from any change (ie we all slide backwards in unison) just so that he can secure re-election? His re-election or otherwise is not the point. The point is .. is he doing what he was elected to do? I say he isn’t, and the longer near-term re-election aspirations are cited as a defence the poorer NZ will become in the longer term. If you have a solution then let’s hear it.

By: PaulL

PaulL — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 03:22:47 +0000

stephen: don’t go introducing logic into this discussion. This isn’t about creating a particular outcome, it’s about venting your displeasure with Key’s desire to win a second term.

By: david

david — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 02:20:18 +0000

David, have you fitted trend lines to that graph? Is sea level indicated in blue and population in red or have you just elimitated outliers and fitted the data to prove the theory? Its all the rage among statisticians I hear.

It would also be interesting if you could put the election result (the biggest poll of all) on there as a point

By: dime

dime — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 01:42:17 +0000

hell yeah! ill be saying

“I’m voting Labour, last time I voted National.”

They hate that shit.

By: stephen

stephen — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 01:40:56 +0000

Last time Labour was popular (-ish), National just went leftwards, why wouldn’t they just do the same if Labour’s polling went up?

By: RightNow

RightNow — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 01:28:41 +0000

getstaffed, I’ll also be indicating labour if I’m polled. I don’t have any intention of ever voting for them, but it seems the best way to get a message to Key, and cheaper than a ‘march for democracy’.

By: Angus

Angus — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 01:17:26 +0000

Herald: Lockwood Smith, PM top performers in newsletter rankings:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10613998

“Mr Key was a close second on nine points, unchanged on last year, and was a “truly remarkable PM who has proved effective leadership doesn’t depend on decades of parliamentary experience”.”

How does this beltway circle-jerking crap constitute news ?

By: getstaffed

getstaffed — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 01:09:56 +0000

Key is not listening, so I’m not supporting.

I was an invited guest at the Key/NZ wedding. I now want to spoil the honeymoon. So the next time I’m surveyed I’ll not indicate that Act has my vote. I’ll tell them I’m voting Labour.

By: Angus

Angus — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 01:08:38 +0000

“the Conservatives lead in the UK has shrunk”

If anyone thinks Key is an unctuous, ingratiating lightweight (he is) then take a look at it in triplicate – Tory leader David Cameron.

By: andrei

andrei — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 01:04:38 +0000

and Abbott has dented Rudd’s lead in Australia

I wonder why that is? Perhaps he knows something worth knowing that everybody else is pretending not to know

[DPF: Before you get too excited, most new leaders get a honeymoon, and the poll was a small sample. I'd want for a month and then see what the polls say]