The TV3 poll

December 14th, 2009 at 3:00 pm by David Farrar

I now have a copy of the full TV3 poll results, and have blogged them at curiablog.

what-about-me

This cartoon is in line with most of the media analysis.

However while the poll certainly shows movements of some significance, I think most of the commentary has been somewhat over-excited – especially tying it to the nationhood speech. The poll is more about a drop in support for National and John Key (and over two months) than a payoff from the nationhood speech for Phil Goff. A few things to look at:

  1. The 24.4% gap between National and Labour is greater than the November One News poll and the mid and late November Morgan . TV3’s last poll was in mid October so the comparison is over a two month period.
  2. The previous gap of 60% to 27% was unlikely to remain – you can only go down from there.
  3. Goff as Preferred PM at 8.0% is still below the 9.1% he got in April 2009
  4. Goff’s net approval rating has actually dropped from -3.7% to -8.4%
  5. Of the eight leadership characteristics they ask about, Goff dropped on three, stayed the same on two and increased on three

Now this doesn’t mean it was good news for National. The poll is not so much about Labour or Goff going up – it was about National and Key dropping over the last two months (not last two weeks). Changes for Key are:

  1. Down 5.8% as Preferred PM
  2. Down 9.4% those saying Key doing a good job (but still high at 73%)

This reflects I think the unpopularity (on both the left and right) of elements of the ETS, and coverage of other unpopular issues (perks, Hone Harawira saga).

So again while the poll does show some significant movement, most of the media are analysing it wrongly in showing a “pay off” for Phil Goff for his nationhood speech. The poll is quite consistent with the mid to late November polls in other media, and the two month gap makes it unsafe to tie to one more recent event.

pubpollsdec09

This graph puts the polls in context. This TV3 poll was in fact better than the three previous polls in November, so the average gas has increased.

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35 Responses to “The TV3 poll”

  1. getstaffed (8,040 comments) says:

    What?!? No Helmet. Goff is clearly after a blessing from the PM.

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  2. wreck1080 (3,999 comments) says:

    I’m sick of John Key, he is continuing the same old policies that have seen NZ drop towards the bottom of the OECD on lots of indicators.

    But, at the same time I intensely dislike Goff. Not that it matters what I think, he is a harmless little critter, incapable of doing much harm at all. Unless he ran me over on his motorbike that is.

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  3. RRM (10,099 comments) says:

    “Confirming politicians will say anything you want to hear, and you’ll agree wholeheartedly”

    I like that. I like it a lot. I’ll have to trot it out next time we have a love-in over how high Key/Act/Hide/Nats are riding in the polls. :-)

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  4. Grant Michael McKenna (1,110 comments) says:

    I hope that it is understood by Goff & Co. as being a reward for the ‘nationhood’ speech, because it will be fun to see the last taxi on the rank speed off with John Key aboard and leave Labour whining about Māori ‘belonging’ to them.

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  5. Countess (150 comments) says:

    Labour usually does better in late Jaunary polls as well. But I guess they wont being doing Jan polls this year

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  6. Rod (180 comments) says:

    I think you are right about the ETS.
    That probably spent some electoral capital by jumping ahead when others were holding back until after Copenhagen – though he did have to deal with Helen’s legacy. I guess the Aus Senate kind of put a spanner in the works.
    Talking around, I would suggest it is recognised in the business community that we are bit players and that the big lefties at UK, EU, US and Aus are holding trade over us in some kind of protection racket to bring us into line with their power plays, and that we have had to go along with it. Much depends on the Copenhagen outcome, and how pragmatic the Nats are in handling the ETS after that.
    Things are moving on, and it is interesting how quiet the political debate has gone in NZ as people wait and see.
    On the other hand, I acknowledge the community is divided, and that some of the loss may have come from activists unhappy that he has not gone overboard with crazy promises of emission reductions.
    Fireworks ahead?

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  7. davidp (3,585 comments) says:

    The ETS is the killer for me. I’ve thought long and hard about it and I just can’t vote for a government that has just taken on $110billion of extra government debt. Especially since there are absolutely no benefits to speak of. If I wanted to spend my retirement in miserable poverty, then I would have voted for the Greens or Labour. But I expect better of National.

    If the ETS is repealed and Nick Smith retired by the next election, then National will get my vote. If not, the only chance is that ACT end up with enough MPs to force the issue and that is who I’ll be voting for.

    [DPF: Umm so what did you want the Govt to do? To leave Labour’s ETS unchanged? To break its promise and not have an ETS at all (which would increase public debt by way more than $110 billion over 50 years) or to be the only developed country that refuses to reduce emissions?]

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  8. Fletch (6,523 comments) says:

    “Born to be mild..ddddddd”

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  9. Fletch (6,523 comments) says:

    DPF: Umm so what did you want the Govt to do? To leave Labour’s ETS unchanged? To break its promise and not have an ETS at all (which would increase public debt by way more than $110 billion over 50 years) or to be the only developed country that refuses to reduce emissions

    Actually that would have been good if we’d broken our promise. It wasn’t our promise it was Helen’s. I’d also go for standing up and not reducing emissions. Sometimes you have to stand up for what is right and not go with the cattle. We need a Mr Smith (but not Nick) to come to our Washington (Oops, Wellington).

    ps, we don’t have the code for strike through text on this forum?

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  10. Adolf Fiinkensein (2,703 comments) says:

    I agree the ETS is John Key’s potential nemesis and that this poll is the first reflection of deep unhappiness over it.

    He will be judged on how effectively he extracts NZ from the climate folly without damaging our overseas trade and thus local jobs. Timing is everything and my pick is sometime during 2010 the extrication will begin.

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  11. Murray (8,803 comments) says:

    Personally I think Goff has made some good sense on a number of issues recently and has out performed Key in terms of being in touch with the general population.

    To pretend otherwise is partisan hackery and catering to PC preconceptions. The same media who attack him for “playing the race card” also praise him for going up in the polls. Some serious double think taking place.

    Of course the same people tell us hone didn’t play the race card so whatever.

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  12. Jeff83 (747 comments) says:

    To leave Labour’s ETS unchanged

    At least Labour’s ETS would of had its desired effect of reducing emmisions, Nationals is allot less effective with the taxpayer bearing the majority of the burden rather than the emmiter.

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  13. jaba (2,146 comments) says:

    Labour have a potential problem coming up. The Goffs deputy, Aking, has an issue with the heat in sumer or is it the sun itself, I don’t know .. and when the heat goes on, Aking starts ranting so she could be a problem for him.
    Andrew 2 jobs will be happy that the slide has stopped as he will have more time to organise his plot.

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  14. OECD rank 22 kiwi (2,760 comments) says:

    National was rather silly to introduce its own ETS when it should have scrapped the Labour one.

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  15. Adolf Fiinkensein (2,703 comments) says:

    Jeff 88, let me help you out.

    ‘At least Labour’s ETS would have had its desired effect of reducing emissions. National’s is a lot less effective – with the taxpayer rather than the emitter bearing the majority of the burden.’

    English is a glorious and melodic language. All it takes is a few seconds to step back, see how it flows or doesn’t flow and then use a spell check.

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  16. davidp (3,585 comments) says:

    DPF> Umm so what did you want the Govt to do? To leave Labour’s ETS unchanged? To break its promise and not have an ETS at all (which would increase public debt by way more than $110 billion over 50 years) or to be the only developed country that refuses to reduce emissions?

    Labour’s scheme unchanged: No. Repeal it. National had the votes to do so with ACT’s support.

    Break a promise: Hell yes! If that promise is to essentially bankrupt the country for no benefit, then they’d be stupid not to break it. If they want to stick with that promise, then they’ve lost my vote.

    To increase public debt by more than $110bn: You presumably are arguing that the government will have to pay enormous amounts of money to other countries or face sanctions? I’ve been asking if any government has paid any money to anyone for carbon credits, and no one has offered up any examples. When Obama gives, say, $500bn to Russia to apologise for America’s production of goods and services then I’ll start to believe that this is anything other than a theoretical scenario. Until then, I’ll assume that no voters are going to allow their government to give away hundreds of billions of dollars every year and receive nothing in return. As for sanctions, I can’t believe that Germany, which subsidises coal mining, is going to invoke trade sanctions against NZ which generates most of its power from hydro. Or that France, which subsidises its own cows, is going to invoke trade sanctions against NZ’s unsubsidised cows. Our policy should be based on a realistic expectation of what might happen, rather than the fantastic scenarios of the Greens.

    To be the only developed country that refuses to reduce emissions: Why not? It’d be more honest than talking about reducing emissions while increasing them, which is what just about every other developed country has done. Any reductions we achieve are likely to be matched by corresponding increases in the undeveloped world, since the easiest way to achieve them is to transfer production offshore. In that case the World is no better off, even if we accept that climate change research is kosher (rather than the amateurish mess that we’ve been seeing over the last month or so) and we’re all doomed. But there is a cheap alternative available here… Have ourselves classified as a developing country. Singapore has, even tho it has a per capita income higher than NZ. One of the Emirates has as well… it’s production of oil and gas has given it a per capita income three times that of NZ.

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  17. malcolm (1,952 comments) says:

    Forget the ETS (it’ll be scrapped long before we spend/borrow $110bn), I think the man in the street is more pissed that John and Bill have been spent a year saying:

    “Well we have a taskforce looking into that at the moment. Just wait and see. It’ll be great. Also the tax review group is going to set NZ up for the future with a fair and sustainable tax system..” and now they say “Oh yeah, that catching Australia thing was just a lie to get your vote. You didn’t believe that shit did you? Also we’re not going to do anything radical with tax. We’re not really interested in change, we just want to win the next election. In fact we have so little vision for NZ, we actually think the place is fucked. We would however love to win another election as this job is great fun. Letterman, Obama, Danish Royalty, hopefully the Queen soon. Cheers suckers.”

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  18. side show bob (3,410 comments) says:

    Well said davidp, you would get my vote.

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  19. side show bob (3,410 comments) says:

    So malcolm you write policy for the Nat socialists, now we know who to blame :-) . Is it possible this blind belief in ETS for NZ has been factored in for possible tax cuts later on?. Give with one hand take more with the other.

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  20. Whafe (650 comments) says:

    Just what exactly happens when the vast majority dont want to vote for National or Labour? ;)

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  21. Manolo (14,166 comments) says:

    “I agree the ETS is John Key’s potential nemesis and that this poll is the first reflection of deep unhappiness over it.”

    Even the full-time cheerleader admits the mistake. Now tell us Nick Smith is mentally safe to round up confession time.

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  22. Adolf Fiinkensein (2,703 comments) says:

    Manolo, you simplistically confuse brinkmanship with ‘mistake.’

    On one hand there is a need to be seen to be going with the flow (short term), no matter how misguided the flow, while on the other hand there is the need to protect our long term interests.

    It’s all to do with timing, the picking of which is the mark of the successful currency trader.

    Look back in a year and see who has the better judgment. The shouters or the money trader? Then cast your vote but not before.

    There is an old Chinese proverb. ‘Neither children nor fools should be shown an enterprise unfinished.’

    Are you a child or a fool?

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  23. Johnboy (17,015 comments) says:

    “Just what exactly happens when the vast majority dont want to vote for National or Labour? ;)”

    “Ahl be bhack”—— Winston Raymond Peters!!!!

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  24. Manolo (14,166 comments) says:

    Adolf, you remind me of an Area 51 poster depicting an UFO in the air with the inscription: “I want to believe”. You might, I don’t.

    Check the latest step back from your hero Key: the allowing of the racist flag to fly everywhere in the name of a mythical partnership.

    What wouldn’t this coward leader of yours stoop to in order to keep his poll ratings? Fortunately, Neville Key will be find out sooner that later.

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  25. Fisiani (1,052 comments) says:

    Polls, polls polls.
    Christmas is coming Summer is coming Barbeques and Bikinis
    ETS -no cost to voters in 2010
    Hone who? Who really gives a continental?
    The latest poll is a dead cat bounce.
    Phil -in’s lifejacket
    I still pick National to be 50% or more at the next election.

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  26. Banana Llama (1,043 comments) says:

    For want of an opposition the country was lost.

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  27. Viking2 (11,672 comments) says:

    Didn’t see it but apparently Key said on the telly this morning that this ETS thing is extremely complicated with the inference being that us average morons just wouldn’t understand it. Now isn’t that a typical Nat. attitude.
    They have just never figured out that they really are not all that intelligent themselves especially when it comes to calling the voters dumb.
    Dumb we obviously are for voting them a salary.

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  28. Biomag83 (94 comments) says:

    As a conservative Im in a tricky position
    I voted National as I hated Labour and especially its former Leader Helen Clark for their gender bending social policies, I supported some of there economic policies but was concerned what effect they would have on economic growth.
    Im not going to vote Labour as dispite the fact that Goff likes to portray himself as in touch with th working class man such as myself, I know that his caucas consist of the same bunch of former school teachers and land rights for gay whale nutters that characterised the previous govt.
    I want to vote National but this govt is beginning to piss me off over some stuff, imagine the hue and cry that would have happened if Labour had decided to fly the Maori flag from high profile places. Labour would be slaughtered and rightly so. I also dont like Act as they have no concept about the effects the policies they promote would have on families. Im actually thinking of voting for NzFirst. I know, I know but at least hes fun and at least winston understands the working man

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  29. fatman43us (163 comments) says:

    As a former supporter of Key and National there are three reasons he and the Party no longer have my confidence:
    1. The ETS, and the abject and ridiculous trooping of Groser, Smith and Key to Dopenhagen in surrender to the Greens.
    2. The treatment of the people who requested a change by referendum to the dumb changes on family discipline, and the continual claims that noone has been prosecuted. This is NOT the reason I am against it, I oppose it because of the activities of the feral spooks in Social Welfare and the Police put there by Labour.
    3. Key’s ignorant dismissal of the Brash Taskforce and its recommendations.
    Will he recover my confidence – No!
    What the do I see happening? A populist in labour picking this feeling up, and it is very widespread in Auckland and promising to deal with the first two. Key would then be history, and he needs to grasp it.

    Lastly I note that National Cabinet Ministers NEVER reply to anti comment on their pet subjects. This is arrogance of the greatest level. They need to start and get their act together or they are toast.

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  30. Flashman (179 comments) says:

    Early critics dubbed National “Labour Lite” – I’m now [sadly] inclined to agree with this view. A year down the track from a landslide election victory and Key has made very little measurable progress on his pre-election manifesto of leading this country towards an exciting new vision.

    More seriously, National’s kiss-me-quick handling of this absurd ETS regime and ACC as well as its absolute inertia over desperately needed local government and resource management legislative reform suggests to me that its feet are more glutinous well-troughed clay than iron shod.

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  31. malcolm (1,952 comments) says:

    There is an old Chinese proverb. ‘Neither children nor fools should be shown an enterprise unfinished.’

    Are you a child or a fool?

    Let me know when the enterprise begins and I’ll give you an answer.

    They’ve had a year. What are they waiting for? 1 billion bucks a month makes a very loud ticking noise.

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  32. Redbaiter (11,880 comments) says:

    ” What the do I see happening? A populist in labour picking this feeling up, ”

    Maybe, but I reckon Winston Peters is more likely.

    National, by their own rank stupidity, are holding the door wide open for him to return to politics on a greater scale than ever before. There is so much that National have put out there for Peters to capitalize on.

    National are truly the stupid stupid stupid party.

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  33. Nigel Kearney (1,096 comments) says:

    I thought I heard on TV that the poll also asked whether people thought Goff actually meant what he said in the speech and only about twenty-something percent believed him.

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  34. s.russell (1,649 comments) says:

    Re the poll,
    The reality may be that the previous poll (with National at 59%) was a rogue. So the current poll does not reflect any shift in opinion, it is merely statistical flux.

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  35. MT_Tinman (3,315 comments) says:

    [DPF: Umm so what did you want the Govt to do? To leave Labour’s ETS unchanged? To break its promise and not have an ETS at all (which would increase public debt by way more than $110 billion over 50 years) or to be the only developed country that refuses to reduce emissions?]

    Given that the whole man-made climate change fiasco is a proven fraud and that scientists have been saying for at least a year that on the very slim chance that it will happen it is too late for anyone to prevent it, yes.

    Please also justify your comment “(which would increase public debt by way more than $110 billion over 50 years)”

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