Shane’s ambitions are showing
January 27th, 2010 at 9:00 am by David FarrarThe Herald reports:
Asked if they would rule out mounting a challenge at any point before next year’s election, Mr Cunliffe answered with an emphatic no. “Absolutely ruled out. Never been interested.”
Mr Jones initially said no comment before returning to say it was a “negative, divisive question”.
Rather different responses.
“Absolutely no interest whatsoever in applying for leadership or doing anything that breaks our unity.”
Which is far from a no.
Labour MP Shane Jones has begun the year vowing to drive the Maori Party out of Parliament, saying they had betrayed their own people and lured the Government into funding their policies of “buying favours by giving money to a favoured few”.
The criticism following Labour’s first caucus of the year yesterday was a clear sign that the gentle approach Labour has thus far taken to the smaller party is over.
Shane talks tough but I notice he doesn’t stand himself against Maori Party candidates in the Maori seats. He normally stands in Northland, losing to John Carter by 10,000 or so votes.
I’ve said it before but Labour are making a strategic blunder by attacking the Maori Party – for two reasons. The first is that they have no chance of winning back four of the five seats held by the Maori Party, and if anything are at risk of losing two further seats to them.
At the last election Labour won the party vote in the Maori seats with 50% to 29% for the Maori Party. The November 2009 Marae Digipoll had the Maori Party at 62% (up 33%) and Labour at 23% (down 27%).
On top of this, it is almost impossible for Labour to form a Government without support from the Maori Party. They have lost the Alliance and Winston First. Progressive and United Future probably won’t be there next time, and Labour and the Greens by themselves are incredibly unlikely to win 63 seats.
Related posts:
- Maori MPs on Shane Jones
- More stupidity from Labour
- 2011 Te Karere Digi-poll
- Maori Labour voters want Goff gone
January 27th, 2010 at 9:09 am
More puku than brains.
Vote:January 27th, 2010 at 9:28 am
Does anyone know when Yong Ming Yan, aka Bill Liu will be tried on his passport fraud charges? That may be adverse to the future prospects of both Jones and his mate Cunners.
Vote:January 27th, 2010 at 9:30 am
Agree that it’s a huge strategic blunder. If the Marae Digipoll numbers are any indication, and if turnout increases a little in the Maori Electorates, then the Maori Party will not only win all seven electorate seats but will start to pick up one or two list seats as well. If this happens then I think they will hold the balance of power in Parliament for a generation. I would have thought that Labour’s job for the next couple of election cycles would be convincing the Maori Party that they are better off in coalition with Labour than with National.
The only fallback option for Labour would be a grand coalition with National. Good luck with that.
Vote:January 27th, 2010 at 9:38 am
What chance would a slob like Shane Jones really have of becoming Labour leader (and having a tilt at the PM’s job)?
He is on record with his race-based put-down taunts of “whitey” to his non-maori opposition members – NZ does not need a self-serving divisive racist anywhere near the levers of power. While that type of talk is acceptable among the likes of Hone and Shane (and evidently their Northland maori supporters) it alienates too many “ordinary New Zealanders” – who do not want to be led or represented by a buffoon with such primitive racist attitudes.
Vote:January 27th, 2010 at 10:08 am
Before the hubris sets in remember that this would once have been said of National and Act – especially after 2002 when they couldn’t even get 30% of the vote between them. Labour WILL be back… eventually.
But you are right that Labour faces a real strategic dilemma. These days the party is very much based on catering to the demands of a bunch of special interests. And Maori are one of the biggest of the internal groups.
To just surrender Maori support to the Maori Party is a horrible idea because those vote can then become part of National’s support block. That might make the difference between winning and losing an election. Also, the largest party has a strong moral claim on the right to govern. If Labour were to accept reduction of its support base in exchange for friendlier relations with the MP it is more likely to put itself in the place of party No 2 – which might be crucial when other parties decide who to support.
So Labour has to fight for the Maori vote – even if the short term cost is high.
Vote:January 27th, 2010 at 10:12 am
I’d argue that Labour’s most important job right now is to win back a sizable chunk of Pakeha/Asian voters, and a solid attack on perceived Maori privilege will help here.
A rejuvenated Labour that can get within striking distance of National can always do a deal with a pragmatic MP that wants to stay in power. Basically thats MMP politics.. Phil needs increasing support from a relatively small percentage of 2 million “ordinary New Zealanders” who are non Maori before he needs a big percentage of the relatively small Maori groupings.
The strategy could be to marginalize the MP, make it a drag on National, work the race card and get the Grumpies and NZ 1sters on side.. it’ll work well enough as the after effects of the recession wear on and National/ACT are forced to cut spending.
JC
Vote:January 27th, 2010 at 10:35 am
I’d say that the Maori Party will be the swing party for the next 2 or 3 cycles. If we assume the only parties who will survive the next election are Greens, Labour, Maori, National, ACT, then Maori are the only party that can work both sides. The Greens could have repositioned themselves into the centre, but their red insides have kept them away from National.
Result is that the Maori Party will be getting more concessions from National than ACT will, and Labour will have to promise a lot in order to peel them off National.
An interesting side point is that this should be a golden opportunity for the Maori Party to do some good for their people. So far all I’ve seen is blankets and beads – flying the flag, commissions of enquiry. They need to start delivering results with their new found power – it isn’t clear to me that they have a real philosophical basis of how they can help their people.
Vote:January 27th, 2010 at 10:38 am
BAHAHAHA make that arrogant cocksmoker Jones leader.
The next Labour PM still hasnt entered parliment imho
[DPF: 20 demerits for that term]
Vote:January 27th, 2010 at 10:41 am
Re the following:
‘Shane talks tough but I notice he doesn’t stand himself against Maori Party candidates in the Maori seats. He normally stands in Northland, losing to John Carter by 10,000 or so votes’
Aren’t Shane Jones and Hone Harawira cousins or somehow related? Perhaps THAT may explain Mr. Jones reluctance to stand against MP in the North – it’s all to do with being ‘family’ and not treading on toes – especially if (deep, deep down), you happen to agree with what your ‘cuzzy’ is saying.
Blood is, after all, always thicker than water.
Vote:January 27th, 2010 at 10:44 am
Jones should work harder at the gym to reduce his huge abdomen instead of making those inane statements.
Vote:I hope DPF doesn’t give me more demerit points for being unkind to another MP (this time a socialist one).
January 27th, 2010 at 10:59 am
Shane Jones is like NZ’s Keith Olbermann (not sure who I am insulting more there).
Please let him be the Labour leader.
Vote:January 27th, 2010 at 11:18 am
The longer the MP is supporting National over Labour, the more the MP itself will slowly move right. It’s an unavoidable outcome of being “in government” and of the fact that most of their successes will come from policies that National feels best about implementing. I expect to see more and more “right wing” stuff coming from them like ending welfare dependency, getting tough on crime, and generally taking responsibility as individuals, families, free-associating groups for improving their own lot.
Consider the such engines of change as:
(1) Appeal to Potential Members: Would an aspiring leftist Maori activist/politician now join the MP or Labour? In at least the extreme cases, left ideology is likely to trump race in choice of party. By such means, the party average moves right… thereby turning off the next-most extreme lefties, and so on.
(2) Effects on Causus: As above, responsibilities within a National government will draw the MP slowly towards the ideology of that government, not least because it’ll be their job to support it and their successes will come from that side of their spectrum of initiatives.
From this perspective, National’s first term with the MP will be the toughest. Later terms, rather than “drag National down” are likely to see reduced differences between the parties, more developed working relationships, and less public/voter unease.
One day I’d expect the MP to have to highlight it’s ability to make kings… but I think that’ll be after they get scared of how similar to National they’ve become rather than at first opportunity.
Vote:January 27th, 2010 at 11:26 am
One thing is for sure as I see it, to make the mistake that the “ordinary” Maori voter cant think for themselves is a grave mistake by the labour party and Jones in particular.
Vote:Maori came of age politically many years ago, and can see the wood for the trees, they will not be fooled by fools.
Camryn above, has touched on the now sophistication of the Maori elector.
January 27th, 2010 at 11:40 am
If Labour are interested there are two immediate election winners available to them:
Guarantee the repeal of the Anti-smacking Bill as their first act on becoming Government;
And undertake to repeal the ETS because of the failure of the scientists and the UN to be able to come up with evidence of Global Warming which even approaches the test of evidence.
Try that on Mr Cunliffe, and see how it fits. Of course John Key would be welcome to try the same, and shake off his critics in the same manner.
Vote:January 27th, 2010 at 2:43 pm
I find Shane Jones one of the least appealing speakers they have, not for his views, but for how he comes across, is that just me? Others I can rate even if they don’t always behave how I’d like, or if I mainly hear them saying things I don’t like. Leaders often have other, better qualities than speech-giving, so what does he have that he gets mentioned in the media as a potential candidate?
Vote:January 27th, 2010 at 4:10 pm
Labour thinks that by playing bully boy they will somehow be effective. So Jones is going to drive the Maori Party out of parliament. Let him stand against Pita Sharples then. Let us see how the bully boy rates then.
Vote:January 27th, 2010 at 6:50 pm
Oh, it is always delightful watching the former Chair of the Waitangi Fisheries Commission (and you can’t get much more “Iwi Elite” than that) continuing his extreme makeover into the designated caucus brown-neck and populist rager.
I’m sure Sharples and Turia would be delighted to get in a public forum with Shane Jones and compare CV’s, then ask why Shane can’t even cut John Carter’s majority in a general seat with one of the highest proportion of Maori voters in the country let alone win selection for a Maori one.
Vote: