Curia poll on Auckland Mayoralty
February 22nd, 2010 at 12:00 pm by David FarrarOver at Curiablog, I have blogged the results of a poll done last week of 1,200 Aucklanders on the Auckland Mayoralty.
It is very rare to have a dead tie between two candidates, but that is what we got – of the 85% of respondents who had a preference between John Banks and Len Brown, they got 50.0% each.
Banks, who is the client who commissioned the poll, has a small 4.4% lead when we ask Aucklanders unprompted who their preference for Mayor is. He gets 42.5% to 38.1% for Brown. Bob Harvey is at 7.2% and Stephen Tindall at 4.8%.
But in the second question, when asked if it is a choice between John Banks and Len Brown, they are dead even. This is a change from the previous poll in September when Brown was almost 10% ahead of Banks.
It looks like it will be a very interesting contest!
Related posts:
- Misleading Poll Questions
- If ever one needed proof of why Auckland needs reforming
- Mayor of Auckland
- Poll Updates
February 22nd, 2010 at 12:09 pm
Good news for John Banks, but perhaps not surprising. He’s been getting lots of coverage for the last month or so. Brown has been near invisible.
Vote:February 22nd, 2010 at 12:11 pm
If I were Banks I would be very pleased.
Vote:February 22nd, 2010 at 12:14 pm
Hopeless. If all Banks can do is run dead even with a screaming Progressive socialist loon, (who a commenter above says has been invisible) he needs to fold his tent.
Vote:February 22nd, 2010 at 12:26 pm
Bankies greatest asset is that he is plain spoken and is honest. However this makeover by John Ralston only undermines that asset as it makes him look like just another fake politician
Vote:Let Banks be Banks
February 22nd, 2010 at 12:27 pm
Where did ‘Andy’ Williams rate?
Is he in the negatives yet?
[DPF: 0.4% off memory]
Vote:February 22nd, 2010 at 1:06 pm
I see no need to worry about the left sneaking in. These troughing clowns will end up running 2 or 3 candidates and split the left vote allowing Banks to get the job with 30% of the 50% who bother to vote.
Vote:February 22nd, 2010 at 1:09 pm
Taking jaunts like this won’t help Brown’s campaign.
Manukau Mayor Len Brown has come under fire for spending thousands of dollars of ratepayer cash to take his wife on a sister-city trip to Japan.
Supermayor candidate Brown was also criticised for opting to fly premium economy on the junket while other members of the delegation flew economy.
Flights for the mayor and his wife Shan cost $7900, and a further $8700 was spent flying three council staff to Utsunomiya, 120km north of Tokyo.
Council chief executive Leigh Auton also brought his wife, Jenny, on the trip but paid for her costs personally.
Vote:February 22nd, 2010 at 1:18 pm
Interesting that the iPredict prices of both are down on the day: Banks at 43% and Brown at 35% chance of winning.
Vote:February 22nd, 2010 at 1:23 pm
Red
Your analysis is off. At any rate it isn’t how you percieve Brown that matters its how the bulk of Aucklanders do.
Auckland is a tough town she won’t be wooed easily by either Banks or Brown.
Don’t forget this is now the foremost most complex election in New Zealand in the most cosmopolitan place. As Richard Prebble has noted, Rodney Hide/the National led Government have created New Zealand’s first truly presidential type election.
It will come down to the campaign skill of both leading candidates. Campaigns are about the marginal effect. That is what both Banks and Brown will now be focusing on – how to shift those voters that need to be shifted into their column in order to win (and probably it will only be to win just).
The poll is good news for both Banks and Brown. For Banks, he is the candidate to beat – but only just. That keeps him and his campaign on its toes; it will also help in fundraising. It also means all his wiliness and skill as an experienced politician will be invaluable – he has quite a good ear for Aucklanders. But a substantial misstep would kill his campaign. For both Banks and Brown they can access both the strengths and weaknesses of the other.
For Brown (despite some substantial misgivings on the left) he is the candidate of the left – for better or for worse. He has the challenger status. It’s a live contest; he’s not ahead (which would act against the discipline needed on the left) so that pressures those on the left that would fracture otherwise. Brown’s place a challenger helps in fundraising. The downside for Brown is the need to be on message or message discipline – he cannot win by promising all to every different audience. It will be picked up on.
The final point to make is that risk of a “pop up candidate” which disrupts the emerging pattern of voter support is receding. Both Banks and Brown are competitive candidates.
Some credit is due to Banks for releasing this poll.
For the record: I support John Banks for Auckland Council Mayor (as I have supported his previous Mayoral bids for Auckland City.
Vote:February 22nd, 2010 at 1:49 pm
What is the poll methodology please. How are people identified to be contacted? What is the method of contacting them (landline only, or cellphone too), what day? What time time of day? Are they re-contacted if there is no answer, or is a new person contacted instead? How many calls are abandoned because the person answering does not understand English?
Vote:February 22nd, 2010 at 2:00 pm
The methodogy is covered off in the link provided above to Curiablog.
Vote:February 22nd, 2010 at 2:08 pm
Whatever strategy Banks has decided to employ, (and I’m not sure what that is) its clearly not working for him. I would guess its symptomatic of the perception within voters minds that “they’re all the damn same, and rates are going to go up and things are going to get worse no matter who wins”. A perception that I think is growing exponentially.
That’s certainly what most of the people I speak to feel. For all of Bank’s rhetoric, he’s not ever done much of note during his time as a politician. What’s he going to do this time? There’s just no hook.
Vote:February 22nd, 2010 at 2:08 pm
If Brown decides to solicit any involvement from Sue Bradford, he’s toast [hopefully].
Vote:
February 22nd, 2010 at 2:33 pm
Chris Diack – the link only says the poll was conducted over 5 days, doesn’t reall answer my questions and the Curia website, and it’s cache are dead.
Vote:February 22nd, 2010 at 3:02 pm
He doesn’t exude charisma or receive much praise (apart from that self applied), so there isn’t any great hook. So far the field is looking very weak, for the sake of Auckland (and NZ) I hope some quality candidates pop out of the woodwork. There isn’t a lot of need to enter the race yet, the current candidates are hardly establishing a strong position.
Vote:February 22nd, 2010 at 4:26 pm
Doug – I agree with your comment. What appalling judgment for Brown to be flying off around the globe when there is a supercity election.
Crampton – I see iPredict has Banks now on 48c and Brown on 37c – probably because of both camps buying in! Seriously though, it does seem that the “market” (if thats what iPredict is) suggests Banks is in the lead too.
Vote:February 22nd, 2010 at 5:16 pm
aren’t stats & surveys amazing? I’ve done some quick manipulation woops investigation & have come up with the following stats:
2008 general election party votes for the auckland region: NAT 347,700 LAB 229200 others???
25.5% of Auckland’s pop identified as either Maori or Pacific Islanders
median age of an Aucklander is 33.4 (2years less than national median)
results from New Zealand election surveys over a number of years show non-voters are more likely to be people on lower incomes, younger people and members of Māori or Pacific ethnic groups.
38% voter turnout for last local body elections.
A center center right Govt enjoying unprecedented support
So we have essentially a 2 horse race between the right & the left which if voted along party lines would see the right with 60% of the vote.
Now if only 38% of eligible voters vote we can ascertain that a large portion of them wont be young/low income/Maori/ PI’s (left voters) leaving only old/high income/Euro’s/Asians(right voters).
My conclusion is that Banksie should win with a landslide victory taking at least 70% of the vote, the only thing stopping him is problably himself & the general apathy of the average voter.
Please remember that as the author of this report I may have taken a few liberties, picked a few facts to suit my own agenda,omitted ones that didn’t & added facts together which actually have no relevance to each other to support my hypothesis, but from what I’ve read recently that’s the way things are done.
Vote:February 22nd, 2010 at 6:57 pm
I don’t believe Brown will get within a bulls roar of winning .. imagine if he did. He spoke at a school principle conference a few months ago and couldn’t stop saying how he wanted Ak to be the Capital of the Pacific Islands .. many turned off.
Vote:As far as poor old Andrew Williams is concerned .. hahaha .. the real Andy Williams has a song called “a fool never learns” mmmm
February 22nd, 2010 at 7:13 pm
Ha ha jaba brings back memories. I remember going to meeting in Wainui years ago when that poor deluded old Sonia Davies stood up and told the assembly how her vision was to make Wainui into a truly multicultural electorate.
Anyway after I noisily got up LMFAO, knocking my chair over, I staggered to the door and as far as I know her vision is still a work in progress.
However Auntie loves her and wears a medal in her image.
Vote:February 22nd, 2010 at 7:42 pm
Wonder if more than half of Auckland will bother to vote, we should just elect a goat to run the show.
Vote:February 22nd, 2010 at 9:34 pm
Polls at this stage are a function of name recognition. Out here in West Auckland the only two people who are known in LG are John Banks and Bob Harvey. Most people wouldn’t know Len Brown if they fell over him. If he can become defined as someone other than ‘the guy running against Banks’ he stands a great chance.
I’m sure your methodology is sound David, but how do you extrapolate voting intentions when you ring somebody up? The turnout in Local Government elections is usually pathetic- so how can you cross check that they will vote. The margin for error of these sorts of polls must be huge.
I’d imagine you didn’t sample 1200 people just for the heck of it or to work out there is not much between two candidates. What did people say when asked about satisfaction with the Supercity process?
Vote: