Comments on: Kiwi Poll Guy calculates the probabilities

By: Murray

Murray — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 02:26:18 +0000

I’d force of a default to 99% myself. It might be mathmatically accurate but that shows its not real world based. It doesn’t allow for things like having a heart attack and dying the day before the election which can slow your chances down.

Not of voting if you’re a democrat in Ohio maybe, but certainly as a candidate.

By: Kiwi Poll Guy

Kiwi Poll Guy — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 01:56:35 +0000

Tim,

The reason is that that is how the model determines the electorate winners. Please refer to my reply to Murray above.

At the last election Goff won Mt. Roskill with a margin of 19% points (55% vs. 36%). Bennett won Waitakere by a margin of 2% points (44% vs. 42%). Assuming a uniform swing since the last election towards National of about 11% points then the model would see Bennett as safer.

Again though, the model itself is just a stop-gap measure. Personally I wouldn’t think Goff’s seat would be in any danger.

By: Kiwi Poll Guy

Kiwi Poll Guy — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 01:45:02 +0000

Murray,

The 100% probability is calculated from the simulation, which as DPF points out is based on a model that assumes a uniform swing in each electorate proportional to the swing towards National in the polls relative to the last election. Under this model any electorate that went National in either 2005 or 2008 is predicted to go to National with 100% probability because the polling swing in favour of National since either of the last two elections is much larger than the margin of error on the polling.

Whether or not the model itself is accurate is a different question. DPF obviously doesn’t think so, and I’m also quite happy to agree. The model is nothing more than a stop-gap measure until we get some electorate level polling in the lead up to the next election.

By: pushmepullu2

pushmepullu2 — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 01:16:25 +0000

Oh yes, yes, music to my eyes. Not a single National MP at risk of not being re-elected. Fucking suffer, Labour drones.

By: Tim Ellis

Tim Ellis — Mon, 08 Feb 2010 23:46:21 +0000

How interesting that he rates Ms Bennett’s likelihood of retaining her seat as higher than Mr Goff’s chances.

By: Murray

Murray — Mon, 08 Feb 2010 22:42:54 +0000

In politics there is no such thing as a 100% certainty.

Gravity is a 100% certainty, reelection isn’t

By: Blue Coast

Blue Coast — Mon, 08 Feb 2010 22:25:27 +0000

Interesting precentage for Dunne at 73%. If we take even a 10% swing to National in Ohariu Dunne is gone and the seat goes blue.

Would be great to know how he is polling now as he was well behind before Nov 08 until he jumped ship as a Minster of the Larbour mob and joined Blue to save his backside.

Probably better for him to bugger off to Canada and save face.