Labour selections

February 1st, 2010 at 10:00 am by David Farrar

has announced four selections, reports the Herald:

Labour has already chosen its 2011 election candidates for Auckland Central, West Coast-Tasman, and Maungakiekie.

First-term list MP Jacinda Ardhern will contest Auckland Central and Carol Beaumont, also a list MP, will contest Maungakiekie. Both are held by National.

List MP Damien O’Connor will try to take back West Coast-Tasman, the seat he lost to National in the last election.

Senior MP , another list MP, will contest Ohariu, which is held by United Future leader .

I wonder why Labour did not open nominations for NZ’s most marginal seat of New Plymouth? Is it because Andrew Little plans to parachute in there later, as that is his home town?

There were four nominations for , the seat held by Social Development Minister Paula Bennett, and a selection meeting will be held on March 20. The nominations were , , and .

It will be pretty devastating to Twyford’s career if he fails to win the nomination, after having been scared out of both Mt Albert and Auckland Central.

He is a more polished politician than Sepuloni, but Labourites may not be keen to put up a “white middle aged male” against the young at heart fiesty Paula Bennett.

McCracken is a perennial candidate – his list ratings have been in 1999 he was no 60, in 2002 no 52, in 2005 no 49 and in 2005 no 50. I can’t see him beating one, let alone two, MPs to the nominaton.

Ann Pala is a Fijian immigrant who was President of the Waitakere Ethnic Board, a director of Winmac Computer Solutions, member of the Islamic Women’s Council. To her great credit she has criticised her party’s association with Winston Peters.

Less agreeably, Pala called for an “ethnic ward” for the Auckland Council, which would elect two or three Councillors. Pala seems to be the only actual West Auckland standing for the Waitakere nomination.

Meanwhile the Dominion Post reports:

United Future leader Peter Dunne faces a tough battle for his Ohariu seat after Labour kicked off its campaign and National vowed it would not stand aside to give him a free ride.

List MP Charles Chauvel will begin door knocking and leaflet drops within weeks after he was the only nomination as Labour’s candidate.

The seat is the eighth most marginal in the country. It was held by Mr Dunne by just 1006 votes at the last election – well down on his 7702 majority in 2005 and the 12,000-plus margin he racked up in 2002. …

Mr Dunne won 12,303 votes in 2008, compared to 11,297 for Mr Chauvel and 10,009 for Ms Shanks.

I expect National will vigorously contest the seat. The reality is that if both National and Dunne stand, then it is possible Chauvel could win the seat due to vote splitting. However if Peter retires from Parliament, then it would be a safe seat for National. Take a look at recent election results.

In 2008 National’s party vote was 17,670 to 12,728 for Labour. In a clear two way contest National should win the seat by 3,000 to 5,000 votes (depending on if many Greens tactically vote).

The split voting statistics tell a story in Ohariu. This is where Dunne has picked up votes in the last three elections:

  • 2002 – Dunne got 47% of Labour voters and 57% of National voters
  • 2005 – Dunne got 34% of Labour voters and 52% of National voters
  • 2008 – Dunne got 16% of Labour voters and 44% of National voters

Peter used to pick up strong support from Labour and National voters. However from 2002 to 2008, he support from Labour voters declined by two thirds. Ironically it was during this period he supported them with confidence and supply, so there is no gratitude in politics!

Now that Dunne can’t attract large number of Labour voters, the main impact is to split the electorate vote of centre-right voters between him and the National candidate. Hence why Chauvel would have a reasonable chance of winning, if Dunne stands in 2011.

But if Dunne retires, then Ohariu should become the only National held seat in Wellington.

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16 Responses to “Labour selections”

  1. Graeme Edgeler (3,277 comments) says:

    First-term list MP Jacinda Ardhern will contest Auckland Central

    And if she wins, the Herald may start spelling her name correctly.

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  2. Grendel (972 comments) says:

    i hope Ohariu gets its act together, the last thing i want is that whiny pinko as my MP.

    his smugness and smarm whenever i see his speak puts me off more than any other policitician including the earth hating greens (though the MP for wellington central comes close).

    conversely Katrina is quite approachable and i have actually seen her in the electorate.

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  3. big bruv (13,571 comments) says:

    What a choice the people of Auckland central have.

    On one hand they have a liberal. left leaning pinko candidate and on the other hand they have a liberal, left wing pinko candidate.

    When the hell will the Nat’s put up a real conservative right wing (hell, I would settle for somebody who is centre right) candidate?

    [DPF: Not that I agree with your description of the candidates, but as Auckland Central is arguably the most liberal seat in New Zealand, it is no surprise that it took a liberal National MP to win the seat off Labour for the first time in 95 years.]

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  4. bchapman (649 comments) says:

    Actually David, we’ve haven’t had a true Westie in the Waitakere seat for years. Pretty sure Lyn Pillay lived somewhere else and Paula moved to Titirangi not that long before getting into parliament. Good point though, its about time we had a local.

    BTW- your Ohariu scenario also applies to Epsom.

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  5. BK Drinkwater (20 comments) says:

    I’ve been obsessing about the Ohariu vote-splitting lately. My overall impression is that Charles Chauvel doesn’t have much fuel left to burn: very little of his natural constituency (people who give their party vote to Labour) is tied up voting for Peter Dunne, while about half of Shanks’s is.

    Chauvel’s best chance is if Gareth Hughes doesn’t stand.

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  6. Manolo (13,517 comments) says:

    “However if Peter retires from Parliament, then it would be a safe seat for National.”

    Peter Dunne retiring? It would be tantamount to a turkey asking for an early Christmas.
    The meretricious Minister of Revenue will never go away, unless he’s offered a plum job such as an ambassadorship or head of his quango, the useless Families Commission.

    Once a trougher, always a trougher. Just ask National’s Bolger.

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  7. tautokai.baxter (199 comments) says:

    Gareth will stand and win! :)

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  8. Nigel Kearney (919 comments) says:

    I would happily vote for Chauvel if it means getting rid of Dunne. I hope there is good polling so I know which electorate vote gives me the best shot of being rid of Dunne from Parliament. Actually Shanks is bad enough that I almost prefer Chauvel even in a two horse race. If Dunne does depart the scene, I hope National put up a decent candidate in 2014.

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  9. Katrina Shanks MP (3 comments) says:

    Ohariu is home to a very high number of families with nearly 50% of people living in two parent homes.

    As a mum myself with three children under the age of 13, I am committed to understanding the issues that are important to families who live in the electorate.

    That is why I am right behind issues like the new National Standards – and making sure that our children have access to the best quality education we can give them.

    As a former Accountant I believe I have a good working knowledge of of any proposed tax changes and can represent this issue fully on behalf of the people of Ohariu.

    Charles may be keen to start door knocking – but I am already working in the electorate, and have been for the last year, making sure I earn the respect of the people I one day hope to represent.

    If you live in Ohariu – please feel free to contact me at http://www.katrinashanks.co.nz
    I want to hear what matters to you and your family.

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  10. Blue Coast (165 comments) says:

    Word on the street is that Dunne will move on probably to another role and his party would be dismantled. Hope he has paid all the money back.

    If all the National voters who vote for Dunne change to National then it will be a landslide to Shanks.

    What ever happened to Dunne’s intentions on the Wellington mayor position ?

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  11. Danyl Mclauchlan (1,066 comments) says:

    I think it’s fairly likely that Dunne will do a deal with National and step down next year in exchange for an embassy posting someplace or a decent position on the board of an SOE.

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  12. Manolo (13,517 comments) says:

    Katrina, thank you for stopping by and giving us your opinion.

    What the voters want from its representatives is integrity and the ability to deliver on campaign promises. You don’t need to look far within your own party to realise the National Party has already failed in that regard. It has even imposed on us higher taxes via ACC levies and impending ETS energy taxes.

    Do not waste your time with Labour: it has discredited itself enough, while its socialist agenda has been rejected by the electorate (at least for a few years, fingers crossed).

    It’s a matter for your party and his leader, the timid / indecisive and ever-grinning Mr. Key, to act upon the electoral promises, to reform the welfare and tax systems once and for all, to avoid making deals with the racist Maori Party, and advance instead the cause of all New Zealanders.

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  13. jaba (2,096 comments) says:

    1/ .. I see you mention Andrew 2 jobs Little .. hehehe
    2/ I would like to see Hamish McCracken get the nod so i can what nickname Whale will give him.
    3/ great to see Katrina post a comment. Don’t from 2 many Nats here .. well not under their real names. I don’t support a Bluealert though.
    4/ I think Peter Dunne is getting closer to losing so a job offer of some sort could be in the background.
    5/ Chuck comes across as a real pompous ass .. sorry about personal reference but he does.

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  14. s.russell (1,580 comments) says:

    Why not New Plymouth? Perhaps because Labour does not have a PC list MP who they want to coddle in that area. The selections were all about doing favours for certain sitting MPs and had nothing to do with the actual electorates.

    Dunne’s support from National voters also declined over this period, because he was backing Labour. Now that he is in the Nat camp, he might claw back some of that support.

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  15. Bob R (1,357 comments) says:

    “Less agreeably, Pala called for an “ethnic ward” for the Auckland Council, which would elect two or three Councillors. Pala seems to be the only actual West Auckland standing for the Waitakere nomination.”

    The future of NZ :-) The former Singapore leader Lee Kwan Yew noted this problem:

    “In multiracial societies, you don’t vote in accordance with your economic interests and social interests, you vote in accordance with race and religion. Supposing I’d run their system here, Malays would vote for Muslims, Indians would vote for Indians, Chinese would vote for Chinese. ”

    http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2005/08/lee-kuan-yew-interview.html

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  16. scanner (340 comments) says:

    It’s a given that D OC will take back the West Coast, the only reason he got the chop was everyone had a guts full of the Klark dynasty.
    The current Nat, Chris “The Invisible Man” Auchunvole is never seen in the electorate, except in photo opportunities, in fact it’s unknown weather he has ever left Greymouth.

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