Less leaving and more staying

March 1st, 2010 at 3:00 pm by David Farrar

The turnabout in New Zealanders leaving New Zealand has been remarkable.

The Herald has reported that “number of people arriving permanently or long term in this country exceeded the number of departures by 2500 in January, the highest net gain for a January month since 2004.”

Now I don’t tend to place too much emphasis on the overall PLT flow, as arrivals for non New Zealanders is a function of policy.

A key stat for me is what is happening with New Zealand nationals as they have the right to come and go without immigration barriers.

In 2007 and 2008, the net departures exceeded 35,000 and was heading to 40,000. In just 15 months it has plummeted to under 15,000.

The global recession is probably part of the change, but what is pleasing is that not only are fewer Kiwis leaving, significantly more of them are returning home.

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27 Responses to “Less leaving and more staying”

  1. andrei (2,657 comments) says:

    but what is pleasing is that not only are fewer Kiwis leaving, significantly more of them are returning home.

    Yeah the useless ones that can’t function in the real world – face it this country is in major decline.

    One of mine has left already and I hope the rest do leave this country to because you can see the future of this country in Fiji today.

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  2. Bernard Hickey (19 comments) says:

    David

    Have a look at the stats showing the numbers of New Zealanders leaving. It has started rising again in the last couple of months.
    http://www.interest.co.nz/ratesblog/index.php/2010/03/01/net-migration-doubles-in-january-from-a-year-ago-as-fewer-nzers-leave/

    Trend series in Table 2 in spreadsheet (Column I) shows trend emigration of New Zealanders bottomed out in August at 5,100 and rose to 5,240 by January.
    The turnaround has started

    cheers
    Bernard

    [DPF: I don't look much as the trend series and adjust for variations such as January always has higher outwards migration than any other month by comparing year on year. NZers leaving Jan 10 was 4,642 and Jan 09 6,487. It may have started to increase again but too early to say]

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  3. goonix (140 comments) says:

    “The global recession is probably part of the change.”

    Yeah I think it may have contributed a tad. :P Nice meeting you on the weekend btw David.

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  4. Adolf Fiinkensein (2,903 comments) says:

    Isn’t it funny how it all turned around when the gummint changed?

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  5. db.. (84 comments) says:

    The most vital departures were Helen Clark and Heather Simpson.

    Their departures took the heart and brain out of the Labour Party.

    You can work out which organ departed with which person, it’s probably irelevant now but the reality is that there are no genuine replacement parts available in NZ.

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  6. spector (180 comments) says:

    Can’t really make anything of the figures until you compared them with other countries repatriation figures. It may actually be a world wide trend.

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  7. Nicholas O'Kane (168 comments) says:

    Interesting to note the trend reversal occured in november 2008 with the change in government

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  8. eszett (2,408 comments) says:

    # andrei (603) Says:
    March 1st, 2010 at 3:07 pm

    but what is pleasing is that not only are fewer Kiwis leaving, significantly more of them are returning home.

    Yeah the useless ones that can’t function in the real world – face it this country is in major decline.

    One of mine has left already and I hope the rest do leave this country to because you can see the future of this country in Fiji today.

    So, do you include yourself as a useless one, andrei, since you didn’t even manage to leave the country?

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  9. RRM (9,924 comments) says:

    # Nicholas O’Kane: “Interesting to note the trend reversal occured in november 2008 with the change in government”

    ^^^ Yes because people so fully decide whether or not to sell up and emigrate overseas based on whether there is a moderate centre-right or a moderate centre-left government in place.

    Lets see what’s changed since Nov08:

    *Cancelled income tax cuts
    *Increased arts spending
    *Mooted increase in GST
    *Huge public works spending on Wellington Highways confirmed

    People are “obviously” moving home in response to the removal of that dirty socialist Labour Gummint.

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  10. Fisiani (1,039 comments) says:

    National billboards in 2008 were about reversing the staggering outflow of Kiwis.

    Well done.
    The light at the end of the tunnel is drawing us home to a brighter future.

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  11. petal (706 comments) says:

    @andrei – money isn’t the only reason to stay or leave.
    But yes, this country is a banana republic with a thin veneer of 1st world-ism.
    Problem is that most of us are in denial about it.

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  12. Nefarious (533 comments) says:

    Don’t make me laugh.

    The only ones coming home will be the ones laid off due to the “global financial crisis”, why the fuck else would you bother?

    Shit, I even find myself agreeing with BRRM, and that’s not a good place to be.

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  13. ISeeRed (236 comments) says:

    Yep, half of them are probably former students who previously whined about having a student loan, then did the finger to the NZ taxpayer and shot off to London or Hong Kong after graduation. Now they’ve come back to live with Mummy and Daddy and go on welfare since they’ll still have that “right” as NZ citizens. Apart from welfare, the only other reason to return to a overtaxed statist backwater like NZ is a death in the family. It’s not for the low taxes, pro-business environment or abundant economic opportunities.

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  14. Eddie (288 comments) says:

    Its gotta be better than lettiung in a bunch of deadbeat refugees and welfare bludging extended family of students that the previous govt built its immigration policy around.

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  15. kiki (425 comments) says:

    Was Key behind the global recession?

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  16. OECD rank 22 kiwi (2,752 comments) says:

    What is the point of New Zealand again?

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  17. wikiriwhis business (4,016 comments) says:

    According to the Herald today there are two phenomenons.

    The financial gap between OZ and NZ has just grown bigger

    and the brain drain is going to reoccur back to the Aussy side.

    I find this encouraging.

    Doesn’t that mean employers won’t be so fussy hiring.

    there must be a lot of work on when the brain drain is strong!

    You would think….

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  18. wikiriwhis business (4,016 comments) says:

    “What is the point of New Zealand again?”

    That just gave me my laugh for the day.

    and much needed I should say.

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  19. wikiriwhis business (4,016 comments) says:

    “Was Key behind the global recession?”

    When that English Lord flew in for a few hours before the last general election I questioned the timing and was convinced the PM has friends in really, really high places.

    He will definitely be connected to the World Trade Org and that org has ties to deep, deep agendas.

    THe agendas that are kept from the public in highly secured meetings that dictate the direction of the world.

    The PM no doubt had been given the nod for the Beehive.

    Although, after the EFB, that was never a surprise.

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  20. Whafe (650 comments) says:

    DPF, I think you will find the trend reverses real quick….. There is no way any recent graduate in their right mind would stay here in NZ…

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  21. eszett (2,408 comments) says:

    You gotta laugh at some of the comments here.

    It goes something like this:

    First it was the best and the brightest that left. Leaving only the dumb and those living on the dole behind. And those who comment on this blog.

    Then it it’s the dumb and stupid coming back. Hey, how can that be? They never left in the first place. Oh, it’s the not-so-bright of the best and brightest? Well, that makes them still brighter than the ones that stayed.

    It is completely ludicrous to think that people make emigration/immigration choices based on the party that is currently in power, GST levels and/or income tax levels.

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  22. mavxp (483 comments) says:

    It is indeed the global financial crisis, which I might add is a whole lot worse in the northern hemisphere than it is in NZ, due in large part to our proximity to Asia and Australia, and the fact that people still drink milk and eat apples in a recession. Oh, and our banks didn’t need bailing out.

    When (if?) the UK economy turns around, the trend will reverse again. Hard to do an OE without some Stirling in your bank, which is hard to get without a job. Lots of Kiwis in the UK worked contract, and the first people you axe in a recession is contractors, followed by full time staff. And yes, our visa’s are stamped with “no recourse to public funds”. So no job = go home.

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  23. Muzza M (291 comments) says:

    I met up with an old girlfriend of mine last weekend. She had been living in Brisbane for a year but came back to NZ because she couldn’t get a job, and yep you guessed went straight on the dole. I thought people returning from overseas had a 23 week stand down. Obviously I was wrong, or maybe she gave the case manager a blow job, she is a bit loose.

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  24. Robert Black (423 comments) says:

    Seems mostly it is POMS escaping the Muslim take-over of England.

    Can’t blame em really.

    Welcome Home, all you pommie gits.

    And yes, I was born in England.

    Well, at least most of you like rugby and cricket and partying and let’s face it you are white after all.

    There is hope yet.

    Second, the Safas, well they are pretty cool too (and mostly white).

    Thirdly, Filipinos, nice people and mostly Christians.

    Ah, there is method in NZ Immigration’s madness.

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  25. sophiedb (1 comment) says:

    Wow, you lot are all making me feel so happy about moving to NZ (with my Kiwi hubby and daughter) :p

    No matter what you think about your country, almost every person who knows we’re emigrating has expressed jealousy. The grass is always greener, and you can never keep all people happy all the time. Even some of the time is pretty hard!

    (oh, and I’m not planning to leave the UK due to “the Muslim takeover” – just finding someplace where houses aren’t tiny with sod-all garden, traffic jams for the whole of a 2-mile journey to work and a teensy bit more sunshine will do me fine)

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  26. KevinH (1,227 comments) says:

    The global recession is the primary reason why people are staying rather than leaving. Australia experienced a slow down early to mid last year where demand for labour declined due to tight economic conditions. However Australia has bounced back by declaring itself one of the worlds best economies which will stimulate emigration. Providing the global economy doesn’t fall over in the next twelve months the bell curve on the graph will go straight up and off the board. Anecdotally Kiwis are less inclined to graft it out in an underperforming economy such as New Zealand and will look elsewhere.

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  27. freethinker (691 comments) says:

    db.. (23) Says:
    March 1st, 2010 at 3:45 pm

    The most vital departures were Helen Clark and Heather Simpson.

    Their departures took the heart and brain out of the Labour Party.

    You can work out which organ departed with which person, it’s probably irelevant now but the reality is that there are no genuine replacement parts available in NZ.

    Undoubtedly Heather was the brains but the only organ I can associate Helen with is the orifice used to evacuate the bowel.

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