The blueing of Auckland

April 4th, 2010 at 6:55 pm by David Farrar

Matt Nippert in the Herald on Sunday looks at the blueing of .

I can certainly recall the days when held just half a dozen seats or so in Auckland, and now it is that is reduce to single figures in Auckland.

Almost one in 10 Aucklanders voted National for the first time in the 2008 general election. Head-to-head, there was a 15 per cent swing to the right, and four middle-Auckland electorates changed their political colours.

National’s average vote in Auckland was 48.3%, compared to 38.0% in Wellington and 42.1% in Christchurch.

The National over Labour gap in Auckland was 15.4%, compared to 10.9% nationally. Only rural NZ had a bigger gap

Auckland also had the largest swing in the country. National went up 6.9% and Labour went down 8.9%.

This movement was particularly pronounced in the city south of the bridge and north of Manukau: young Nikki Kaye unseated Judith Tizard in Auckland Central; Pansy Wong crucified the opposition in the newly created Botany; leopard-skin-clad Paula Bennett stormed home in Waitakere; and burly Samoan rugby player Sam Lotu-Iiga claimed Maungakiekie from old-school unionist Mark Gosche.

The print copy has an amusing sketch of Paula, Sam and Nikki respectively as Wonder Woman, Super Man and well I am not sure but I think Sheena.

Repeatedly, Labour MPs interviewed for this story refer to their electoral defeat as a movement of tides.

That of course is part of it, but not all of it. For may part, here are some of the factors which led to National winning seats off Labour in Auckland.

  1. Right candidates for the seats
  2. They ran campaigns to win the seats, not just party vote campaigns. A good local campaign will life electorate vote and party vote.
  3. The boundary changes were generally favourable to National, especially in areas like Maungakiekie.
  4. Incumbent MPs were retiring or weak
  5. The Government had lost touch – ie time for a change

Now if Labour are placing all their faith in (5) no longer being an issue, then they may get a shock.

The implication is that if the tide of support went out in 2008, it’ll come back in eventually. But, a year and a half later, there is little sign of a sea change that will wash the left back to power.

One has to make it happen, not just wait for the tide.

Chris Carter, whose electorate seat Te Atatu swung almost 20 percentage points to National from Labour, is almost blase about Patel’s change of allegiance: “By and large the Indian community is still with us – and the South African one is for the other guys. That’s the way it’s always been.”

But not necessarily the way it always will stay.

While Trotter has been bitterly attacked by Labour backbenchers for his diagnosis, their leader concedes he may have a point. “I think that’s probably right,” says Goff of the loss of ‘Waitakere Man': “There’s a group of people out there who thought that Labour had become too nanny-statist, telling people what to do and not to do.”

Not just nanny state. Too reluctant to give tax cuts, and too keen to grow government spending.

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17 Responses to “The blueing of Auckland”

  1. Grant Michael McKenna (1,160 comments) says:

    Because Labour is stuck in the 1980s they haven’t realised that “South Africans” in New Zealand are from all races- and that experience of an overpowering state makes us support National. If we wanted apartheid we would have moved to Queensland.

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  2. big bruv (14,117 comments) says:

    “Not just nanny state. Too reluctant to give tax cuts, and too keen to grow government spending.”

    Yep, instead we have the National socialists continuing with Nanny State (not repealing the anti smacking bill, Cell Phones banned in cars etc) and promising tax cuts then breaking that promise and continuing with government spending at almost the same level as the previous socialist government.

    What has changed?, the only difference I can see is that our current PM is a much nicer person, he sure smiles and waves a lot.

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  3. dad4justice (8,302 comments) says:

    Whatever you say big blouse, no doubt if you smiled your face would crack!

    [DPF: You are on 90 demerits and have just made an unprovoked attack. I suggest you retire for the night]

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  4. Doug (410 comments) says:

    Labour will never learn, the bus that they drove around the country with a Parliamentary Crest just proved Labour love having their hands in the public purse. There is even a fire engine with the Parliamentary Crest, campaign Fire Engine they will never learn.

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  5. big bruv (14,117 comments) says:

    Grant

    I assume you are a Saffa, if that is the case then it amazes me that you would make such a comment re NZ and Queensland.

    NZ does indeed have apartheid, just today we have seen an act of “separate development” come into force.

    Given the choice of Australia or NZ I know which country I would have chosen, it sure as hell would not have been this little dump.

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  6. philu (13,393 comments) says:

    “..Given the choice of Australia or NZ I know which country I would have chosen, it sure as hell would not have been this little dump…”

    you do have a choice..

    you could go and live there..eh..?

    ..and leave us to clean up this ‘dump’..eh..?

    go on..off you go..!

    (need a lift to the airport..?..)

    the place is full of redkneck reactionary racists..

    you’ll be quite at home..eh..?

    phil(whoar.co.nz)

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  7. Viking2 (11,544 comments) says:

    GMK. Obviously you haven’t studied th antics of The NZ National Maori Party aka known as the National Party. Add up the Nat. Maori’s plus Maori Party and one can soon see why the rest of us mixed races are second class citizens.
    Nothing will change until the Maori seats are gone or a much stronger backbone of principle is applied to the government.

    Key is a carbon copy of Micheal Joseph Savage. Horrors of horrors but its true. Read up about Savage and you will learn that he would go to a meeting where women were present, utter the words “there now” and all the stupid women would swoon over him. Mother in Law was just like that and he frequented their house often.

    Key takes a lesson from him and smiles and waves to the ladies and they have become Keys MIV (most important voter.)
    They are the swinging votes that got Key over the line.
    Now he is a pleasant guy and that’s a lot better than the last bitch who was anything but pleasant but that doesn’t do what needs to be done. Of course without the Maori behind him nothing will get done, for as a block they hold the most votes in Parliament.
    BB only way to get change is to put some backbone up the Nats.
    Tough as it may be there is only one choice and don’t believe all the crap journo’s go on about.

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  8. philu (13,393 comments) says:

    cd u take d4j with you..?

    (he cd carry yr bags fr u..

    ..eh..?)

    phil(whoar.co.nz)

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  9. Adolf Fiinkensein (2,914 comments) says:

    This is a remarkably astute piece of analysis by Matt Nippert. He documents the old guard attitude of Labour beautifully, with Phil Goff, Chris Carter and Mark Goshe all demonstrating that Labour learnt absolutely nothing from its landslide defeat.

    They still think they did no wrong and sooner or later, New Zealand will realise the error of its ways and come rushing back to put them into power.

    Long may they continue to delude themselves. Clearly those red bus trips were just a bit of a jaunt for them to talk to each other. They sure as hell didn’t get alongside any dinkum Kiwis.

    Its hard not to picture Goff, Carter and Goshe leading their three ranks of red coats while they are picked off by National’s snipers who retire before the tired old fools can figure out from whence they were shot at. Upon being informed of the superior tactics, the generals mount a campaign to enlist more redcoats.

    Beautiful.

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  10. RKBee (1,344 comments) says:

    Auckland electorates changed their political colours.

    With the introduction of MMP they had to for the party vote.. the power of government now is where the population is.. and the population is in Auckland.. MMP has made the Nats old strong hold of rural seats with their small population base politically weak. National to surviveneeded to move their demographic base.

    When anyone asks me who will be the government… As it is a MMP system.. I always tell them who ever wins Auckland will be the Government… Now you know.

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  11. MIKMS (167 comments) says:

    the blueing of Auckland…

    It’s so beautiful.

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  12. Poliwatch (335 comments) says:

    “Given the choice of Australia or NZ I know which country I would have chosen, it sure as hell would not have been this little dump.”

    Big Bruv, are you dead? Because if you aren’t you do have a choice. But I assume that you stay because you are better off here than there.

    Have I just agreed with philu??

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  13. big bruv (14,117 comments) says:

    Poliwatch

    Nobody is better off here.

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  14. RKBee (1,344 comments) says:

    Poliwatch

    Nobody is better off here.

    Yes they are.. theres a lot of NZers here for life style.. not the money.. like philu..
    And just about everyone that lives in Taranaki..

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  15. Positan (393 comments) says:

    re Viking2

    “Key is a carbon copy of Michael Joseph Savage. Horrors of horrors but its true. Read up about Savage and you will learn that he would go to a meeting where women were present, utter the words “there now” and all the stupid women would swoon over him.”

    Fair comment all the way – but wasn’t it “now then” for which Michael Joseph Savage was renowned?

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  16. stanmore23 (2 comments) says:

    Yet another thing we can blame on Auckland!

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  17. Inky_the_Red (761 comments) says:

    If no one was better off in NZ then why are people here?

    The fact is that there is more to Standard of living than how many plasma TV you can buy with your pay packet (each fortnight (or week or month).

    Fresh air, stunning scenery, rivers you can swim in, forests you can walk through, nature you can enjoy (without looking for deadly snakes, spiders and scorpions).

    NZ is a great country, why do we want to be like Australia? Those who do can hop on a plane and leave this place for those who appreciate it and love it. The barren wasteland that is Australia already exists, there is no need to create it here too.

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