Will Rudd be rolled?

June 14th, 2010 at 9:15 am by David Farrar

The Sunday Telegraph reports:

SENIOR Labor MPs says the leadership is ’s for the taking before the election – if she wants it.

Prime Minister ’s control of the party has entered a treacherous phase, with Cabinet ministers and backbenchers canvassing the idea of changing leaders before this year’s federal election.

As Ms Gillard was forced yesterday to publicly deny she wanted the top job, Labor MPs described Mr Rudd as a “leader under fire” and said his prime ministership was “terminal”.

Rudd has never been that popular within his Caucus – respected but not popular. He appointed a Cabinet without going through faction heads. Personally this was a good thing to do, but it did create enemies.

I’ve just been reading the infamous Quarterly Essay on Rudd by David Marr. This is one one where he refers to the Chinese as trying to “rat fuck” Australia at the Copenhagen summit.

Marr points out that both Rudd and Gillard were seen as potential challengers to Kim Beazley, and that they met to decide who would challenge. Gillard actually had more MPs backing her, but Rudd refused to consider being her deputy, so she agreed to serve as his deputy.

She is unlikely to challenge, because she knows that will create more enemies for her. But there may come a point where for the good of the party, she is pressured into becoming Leader.

Senior Labor sources said Ms Gillard has always had the numbers to seize the leadership, but not necessarily the will to challenge for the top job.

“She would get it pretty easily right now, but I don’t think she wants it,” the source said.

I think she wants it, but on her terms. Labor are waiting for Tony Abbott to self destruct, but if he does not then they may panic and try to roll Rudd before the election.

However even then Gillard may prefer to let Labor lose, become Leader of the Opposition, and then try to become PM in her own right within three years.

Tags: ,

18 Responses to “Will Rudd be rolled?”

  1. Redbaiter (13,197 comments) says:

    If Labour Austraylia thinks Rudd’s incompetence can be fixed by installing the bozo Gillard in his place they’re in a lot worse trouble than they realise.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  2. tom hunter (4,894 comments) says:

    I put this quote up several weeks ago, but it’s worth repeating as events unfold. The following is from a commentator on Tim Blair’s blog and it’s classic Aus-speak:

    Word is that the Silver Bodgie was overheard saying that he hates what Dear Leader has done to the country and the party, and needs to go.

    Seeing as he’s Billy No Mates and has no factional support, I’d say the knives are being sharpened; the only thing staying their hands is the fact that Woody Woodpecker is even less electable, and highly vunerable over her disastrous lack of supervision over the Builders Early Retirement program.

    Who else? Tanner’s likely to get rolled by the Greens, Albanese is a hideous ferret-faced fist magnet, Chris Bowen a Mini-Me Albanese, Shorten and Combet? Too new, and with the whiff of the ACTU about them; looking at the options, it make Hobsons Choice seem like a doddle.

    I reckon schadenfreude is a hoot

    Woody Woodpecker! a hideous ferret-faced fist magnet!. Classic stuff

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  3. Redbaiter (13,197 comments) says:

    “Classic stuff”

    It sure is. I got a good laugh when you first posted it, and the Woody Woodpecker thing is so cutting (and accurate) it made me laugh just as much again today.

    Thanks again Mr. Hunter.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  4. Gerard Barry (28 comments) says:

    As someone who resides in Sydney, I would feel robbed if Rudd was rolled pre-election. I want to have the personal pleasure of voting against Rudd and the most monumentally incompetent federal Labor government ever. A change of leadership to Gillard would have little effect as she is an equal contributer to stench of incompetence.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  5. Manolo (13,837 comments) says:

    Talking about incompetence (changing country): when will Nick Smith be sacked?

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  6. 3-coil (1,220 comments) says:

    Rudd deserves to be rolled, like a ball of ear-wax… :-)

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  7. lastmanstanding (1,297 comments) says:

    We need the Aussies to be doing well given the importance of their economy. My fear is that thin lipped Gilliard will do to them what Clark did to us. And we cant afford that

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  8. tvb (4,430 comments) says:

    In politics you take your opportunities when they arise. So far as Rudd is concerned they could declare the Leadership vacant. At that point Gillard could run and would probably win. Rudd’s fault seems to be he operates in secret and does things at the last minute and half baked. Plus his man management skills appear non-existant. It is a quality in the top job which seems to be much under-rated and often overlooked but essential for the running of a Government. So PMs have it some don’t. John Key has that skill in large measure.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  9. side show bob (3,660 comments) says:

    tvb “rudd is concerned they could declare the leadership vacant”, mate, the leadership has been vacant all his life.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  10. GPT1 (2,122 comments) says:

    Is Abbot up to seizing the opportunity being presented to the coalition? (This is a serious question rather than a dig).

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  11. tvb (4,430 comments) says:

    Abbott is well up to the task of seizing the moment but Rudd is PM, we need an election. All Abbott is doing is keeping the pressure on. The mining tax is another probable policy failure for Rudd even though he has banked a lot of future spending commitments on it.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  12. Rex Widerstrom (5,354 comments) says:

    Rudd has never been that popular within his Caucus – respected but not popular. He appointed a Cabinet without going through faction heads. Personally this was a good thing to do, but it did create enemies.

    Yeah, but enemies who were more than happy to keep their counsel and work under his leadership while he had the support of the people.

    But Rudd lost that. He called AGW “the greatest challenge of our time”, proposed an ETS, then shelved it when doubts were voiced. What, suddenly no longer a challenge of any dimension, Kev?

    Then he (along with Gillard) allowed the tax payer to get ripped off by buliders working under the “Building the Education Revolution” post-GFC pork-barrelling scheme. (Just go to theaustralia.com.au and search on “BER” for a thousand horro stories). But it wasn’t that which made him unpopular – it was going on camera and insisting all was well and no mistakes had been made.

    Now it’s the 40% mining tax, which is a tissue os spin (one minute state government royalties will be “rebated” to the miners, the next minute they will be “replaced” by the tax. One small word, one enormous difference to the states).

    And so on.

    Don’t for one minute think that if Rudd loses the leadership it will be because he hasn’t kowtowed to the factions. Sure, they won’t cry any tears, crocodile or otherwise, as they stab him. But they will have been empowered to do so because Rudd played the voters for fools.

    Take note Goff, Key et al.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  13. tom hunter (4,894 comments) says:

    Ah yes – I’d forgotten that you live over there Rex.

    I don’t really follow Aussie politics at all, so tell me, is the Woody Woodpecker line I quoted above an accurate description of Ms Gillard? Not to mention the other colourful descriptions?

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  14. GPT1 (2,122 comments) says:

    Rex – interesting that the shelving of the ETS has cost Rudd with voters given the pressure Key is under to delay the implementation here despite it being a MAJOR Election Promise.

    From afar Rudd’s greatest flaw seems to be that he has a new good (according to him) every month or so and wants it implemented immediately but then loses interest when the going gets tough. That and the fact he comes across as an arrogant prick.

    Just logged on to the australian – first article on the proposed mining taxes – “Unions and Lobby Groups back Kevin Rudd in battle with mine bosses over super-profits tax”. Says it all really. Just a polite way of saying ‘Unions and Lobby Groups back Rudd in giving it to employers and wealth creators (those bastards)”

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  15. Rex Widerstrom (5,354 comments) says:

    tom hunter asks:

    I don’t really follow Aussie politics at all, so tell me, is the Woody Woodpecker line I quoted above an accurate description of Ms Gillard? Not to mention the other colourful descriptions?

    Chivalry prohibits my responding to the first part of your question tom. Some people find Ms Gillard tongue-tyingly attractive, evidently, including the “hard-hitting” host of the Nine Network’s “Today” Show Karl Srefanovic, whose introductions of Gillard have included:

    That’s a nice skirt

    and the even more telling

    You look great . . . That’s not just an appearance thing, I’m . . . it goes deeper than that

    Seems the TV networks on both sides of the Tasman think a complete inability to even pretend to be a neutral professional qualifies one to be a breakfast show host.

    Albanese certainly makes my fist quiver, as does Bowen. But then it also quivers when Stephen Conroy appears, but at waist level :-D

    Shorten and Combet… I think he was being extremely kind. “Evil pasty Marxist automatons” would have been a starting point… ;-)

    GPT1:

    Rex – interesting that the shelving of the ETS has cost Rudd with voters given the pressure Key is under to delay the implementation here despite it being a MAJOR Election Promise.

    Yep, the problem when you run round squawking “The sky is falling” is that when you’re forced to admit it’s not, you’re hated both by those who still believe it is and by those who knew all along it wasn’t. Pretty basic politics, suggesting both Key and Rudd have extremely poor political radar, shitty advisors, or both.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  16. Viking2 (11,488 comments) says:

    HMMM, Rex, I tend to agree with your last line, the difference being Key is not a dummy and an egotist like Rudd. Key will learn eventually that his own instincts are not as good as listening to the voters enmasse. (think smacking) It will come back as these things do.

    I read a ways back that Gillards example in life was Helen Clark. That may well be but Clark had the smarts that Gillard doesn’t have and was a total controller. Gillard by comparison is very shallow and doesn’t have the psychopathic tendencies of Clark.
    Gillard is a harpy. Inept at leadership, lacking in being capable of responsibility and like most of the left plays games with people. Can’t comment on her relationship issues for I have never seen it mentioned.
    Rudd on the other hand is a GENY. Short of concentration, not a leader with any inspiration. Destined to fail. Mealy mouthed is a good description.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  17. GPT1 (2,122 comments) says:

    Rex – I have some hope for the political radar of Key on the ETS. It WAS a big issue (in the good old days, pre recession, when we could afford to care about random shit) and the I think it would be fair to say that the majority of the public demanded a response (any sort of response will do – Kyoto sounds good, people have been talking about it for a while – you know; something really indepth!) and Key has charted some sort of middle ground.

    What he hasn’t done is enthusiastically embrace global warming science (a big difference to Rudd) or broken a major election promise.

    Viking2 – the smacking thing is interesting as I would have thought Key would have used any sort of excuse to dial back that change saying that the compromise was the best of a bad deal AT THAT TIME. I agree with him that there is no practical problems with the new law (I have yet to see a prosecution that shouldn’t be brought under the law with the previous s59) but the issue for most of us is that the law change was rubbish and for rubbish reasons. What ever the effect many New Zealanders felt as if they were being unfairly persecuted and for that i would support it being rolled back.

    Anyway back to Australia. If Abbott can led the coalition in will he have a sufficiently refreshed line up for another long and glorious Lib-led Australia?

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  18. OECD rank 22 kiwi (2,752 comments) says:

    YES

    But not the last we’ll hear from him me thinks.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote