Colin James on Key
July 13th, 2010 at 3:00 pm by David FarrarColin James writes:
How long will John Key stick around? Even before Kevin Rudd was suddenly rolled last month, this question was doing the rounds in the Wellington political hothouse.
The speculation goes like this: Key has not come to the top job with a burning ambition to change the world in a particular way, as distinct from a desire to do some good; he is not a career politician despite a teenage desire to be Prime Minister; he is not a loser and won’t want to go out on a loss; he has the sort of personality that could enjoy time at the top and then move on.
I think this is fundamentally correct. I don’t think John Key wants to try and break Seddon’s record as longest serving Prime Minister. He is not a Helen Clark who still seethes at being removed from office after *only* three terms.
Add into the mix the gulf between Key’s written speech notes and what he actually tells audiences. Audiences, particularly of businesspeople, often leave enthused by Key’s energy and optimism and with a much more uplifting sense of his purpose than they would get from the formal speech.
Key is definitely at his best when talking to (not at) an audience. He shares very candid assessments on issues such as Afghanistan in a way which makes the audience feel he is talking to them as equals, not lecturing them.
National has a leader who can win power, win hearts and minds and keep Labour out. And one likely to edge, term by term, in a business-friendly direction, as John Howard did in Australia.
The direction is more important to me than the speed.
This term Key has a super-majority, with ACT to support some measures and the Maori party to support others and deliver some Maori voters.
If in the next term National needs both parties for a majority (likely if, say, Labour gets 38 per cent and the Greens 6 per cent), managing their antithetical positions to pass contentious legislation will be very challenging — or paralysing.
Even if there is a super-majority again (a real possibility), can Key keep both in the tent?
He has given the Maori party some big mana wins and whanau ora. There is not much more mana he can deliver without upsetting conservative National members and voters.
This is an issue I’ve been reflecting on in recent months. The Maori Party have done pretty damn well under this Government. I don’t expect any other major policy “gains” before the election. But what few have thought about, is what will they want in a second term? It is unlikely to just be an implementation of existing policies. And as Colin James says, what they want may be just too much for National supporters. The second term will be far more challenging.
And all the while, the economy will not be flying high and might even have another bad turn, given the debt-driven turmoil and huge uncertainties in the global economy. The 2014 election might look grim. Will Key want to risk a loss?
I can’t see Key retiring in just his second term. I absolutely can see a scenario where he retires say 18 months into a third term. Key has said he doesn’t want to leave the job of PM angry considering that it is a huge privilege to be one of around 40 NZers who have held the job.
So I think Colin’s column is quite perceptive, but that he is a term too early.
Related posts:
- Colin James gives Turia Politician of the Year
- Colin James on can Key do it?
- Colin James on year ahead
- Colin James on National’s candidates
July 13th, 2010 at 3:16 pm
all of the left and some on the extreme right dislike John Key’s manner/direction. I think he is the best we have had for decades and will only fail because of others conspiring against him .. and there will be many. We need him more the he needs us.
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 3:25 pm
“Key has not come to the top job with a burning ambition to change the world in a particular way”
..and that’s the problem really. He’s just a boy who said he wanted to be PM and achieved that ambition. Shame is he had the mandate to make the changes that are so urgently needed, but because of his apolitical stance, didn’t make them.
I think having a PM who apparently does not understand the political spectrum and more importantly, what is happening in this country under the current Progressive political mood is akin to having a dangerous fool as PM.
I think that when Key awakens to how much of a disappointment he’s been to so many people, he’ll quit.
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 3:36 pm
“I think that when Key awakens to how much of a disappointment he’s been to so many people, he’ll quit.”
I wish RB’s prediction were true, but sadly Key and his lame government will continue on the downward spiral trend initiated by its socialist predecessor. That is more nanny-statism and regulations, more creative ways of taxing the population (wait for the next stage of the dreaded ETS), while wasting time on lesser/trivial matters, e.g., the cycleway, the selling out to racists.
Only when NZ embraces modern market place policies and overhauls the corrupt welfare state, we’ll see progress. Not a day earlier.
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 3:46 pm
Some are too impatient for that, but steady improvement is usually far more effective than lurches that often lurch back.
Most of the big bunch somewhere in between have respect and confidence in him. He might come across as ordinary bloke-ish but he’s not dumb by any means. I’m hopeful about what he can achieve effectively (rather than reactively) but I’ll give him another term to prove himself.
It’s very refreshing to hear a politician not talking like a politician, he speaks like he knows what he’s on about and wants to share that with his audience.
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 3:49 pm
O.k. I’ll say the BLEEDING obvious
Who the heck else is there?
Sorry chaps but the ACT lineup is about as exciting as Labour to the general populous.
Something along the lines of I would rather poke myself in the eye with a sharp stick than have any of the other options leading the country.
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 3:56 pm
One thing that always puzzled me about John Key – why, exactly, does he want to be PM? What does he want to achieve from it? I don’t believe he does it because it looks good on his CV, but without “burning ambition” to change the world the best a PM can hope for is to be a good steward for the next Government. That’s not a bad achievement, but it is not much of a vision. Does this make him a genuine small-c conservative?
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 4:07 pm
“Who the heck else is there? Sorry chaps but the ACT lineup is about as exciting as Labour to the general populous (sic).”
I agree with you Lance, hence we’re condemned to go downward for years to come.
You must realise though that the current National Party is a pale shadow of the right of centre political force once was. It is now inhabited (and owned) by appeasers, green fifth-columnists, spin doctors, and cowards galore.
It’s a matter for the National Party to regain its founding identity and govern for the benefit of all New Zealanders, instead of following a socialist agenda dictated by others.
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 4:08 pm
Maybe it just makes him realistic about what PM of NZ is able to achieve. He may well be small-c in ways, but he also looks like a new way modern PM who won’t ignore anything that makes sense.
And it’s possible to be quietly ambitious – you don’t have to be a “look-at-me” extrovert to get worthwhile results. Achievable goals work far more often than extreme dreams.
At the moment I’ve got more admiration and hope for Key than I’ve had for any other PM – started noticing from Kiwi Keith (who didn’t sound like a kiwi). It does matter how much support he gets from the rest of the team but right direction, taking opportunities as they become available, I’m quietly confident.
The world has change a lot since National’s “founding identity”.
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 4:28 pm
I agree with you, PG. Spot on!
And to manolo and rb: So are you saying, like Labour, that the over 50 % who say they support National, and the almost 80 % who say that the country is headed in the right direction, and the large majority of people who say they prefer Key as PM are NOT the majority, are NOT representative?
I would suggest that instead you two are NOT representative. And that a “pure” free market in fact would NOT deliver the best outcome, just as a “pure” government does not deliver the best outcome. Somewhere in the middle is. Time and again we see those examples, those countries that are performing best, over the long haul, are somewhere in the middle. And I suggest that that’s where most New Zealanders want to be, where we are comfortable, and that’s where John Key has positioned the National Party.
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 4:40 pm
John Key is a right leaning moderate, nothing more, nothing less. This may infuriate the far right and there is certainly a good representation here. They rant and rave and make vile personal attacks on the man because they have the freedom to do so. But they are pissing in the wind; change can only be made by those that have the voters mandate. And voters predominantly group around the centre. Perhaps the fanatical right wingers should immigrate to Fiji where government by decree is now in vogue.
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 4:46 pm
Have you got any examples?
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 4:52 pm
Hmmmmm Prime Minister with a burning ambition to change the world….Helen Clark
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 4:56 pm
Colin James hasx alwaysd had a problem.
He thinks politicsa is acadsemia.
Her fails, and alwaysxz haS FCROM THEW TIMRE HE STArted in the Dominion aND THEN MOVEDD ON TO THE nz hERald, thAT politics isaz visaceral.
Imp;lied in his op d piuedscves isa that Key isz szimilaR
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 5:02 pm
Popularity via polling is no measure of a politicians effectiveness. Helen Klark was once popular, as were Adolf Hitler, Mussolini and Muldoon (so I’m told). When the public are largely uninformed, and the politically debate is tightly controlled, it is easy to be popular.
Secondly, there’s also no scientific basis to arrive at the conclusion that because a politician is popular, he/ she is a good politician, as a few of the examples above demonstrate.
I think right now in NZ a good politician would be making changes and articulating the reason change was necessary. That John Key is apparently incapable of either of those two things means I cannot be part of that sector of the population that thinks he is a good PM.
It appears to me that we were heading downhill at a pretty steady rate, and all Key has done so far is managed a barely discernible decrease in that rate. Maybe I’m wrong, but I guess time will tell if borrowing $250 million a week to keep the country comfortable in its delusions is a good idea and one that will see Key’s popularity remain high.
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 5:12 pm
Manolo and Red, do you drink at the same RSA?????
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 5:20 pm
Eddie, sitting on top of a big pile of borrowed money and handing it out to corporate, beneficiary and bureaucratic sector welfare addicts might be a way to remain popular but is it really good policy long term?
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 5:34 pm
No, Eddie. I haven’t met RB, so I cannot say we share drinks at the closest pub, bar or RSA.
It’s sad to see this (as the previous) government wasting the opportunity to improve our country’s lot for the sake of remaining “popular”. Do I need to remind you that the ostrich approach to problem-solving hardly succeeds?
Fine by me if you want an ochlocracy for New Zealand.
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 5:47 pm
John Key is not a small “c” conservative. Small “c” conservatives, even if they don’t understands politics to a high level still instinctively know that social change of the scale of the “anti-smacking” bill are not a good idea. And not only did John Key participate in that atrocity, he also actively ignored a great part of the population who wanted the law changed back.
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 5:49 pm
Selective memory Red?
Early Muldoon (1975-78) was the best PM (as opposed to best Government – that goes to 1984-1987) NZ has had in my lifetime.
Key has been a disappointment simply because he has not used his massive majority to undo the serious damage perpetrated by the last lot and has shown Clark and Cullen respect they certainly have not earned and do not deserve.
Having said that until Rodney pisses off and ACT gets a real leader I may have to start voting National.
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 6:00 pm
Key has discovered he has a knack for the job. The well timed photo op. The one I remember lately is a beaming John Key congratulating the All Whites on one of their pool wins. It is part theatre but the PM seems to know how and when to make that gesture. Nomn KIrk was another who could do it. But no-one since. They have all tried but none are as good at it as John Key. He likes the world stage. He likes the people he meets and they like him. He will be around for quite a while yet – thank god.
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 6:15 pm
No, but signs it could be heading in the right direction: Govt finances better than expected
Results are much more likely by praising when it’s due and nudging in a better direction via a mandate than sitting on the sideline shouting “come to me you bastards!”
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 6:34 pm
Trout, you seem to be quite mixed up. It is the LEFT who like government by decree and the command economy. Why the left doesn’t like Fiji is not the style, that suits them perfectly, it’s just that it’s not one of THEIRS’S doing the commanding. If it was one of the indigenous chiefs doing so in the name of racial purity they’d be all over them with praise.
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 7:05 pm
I agree with Lance but would go further than a sharp stick in the eye. I would rather bang my dick with a hammer than go back to the Labour government or let ACT have any influence
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 7:38 pm
Flipper could you try the Queen’s English once in a while?
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 8:50 pm
john key is at the helm of a steady she goes ship. currently he is funneling water into the ship in the hope that the winds pick up he can then reverse the process and funnel it all out again and all this happens before the ship goes down. and to continue the ship theme i guess to name such a ship would depend on whether you are port or starboard in leanings! RedB with distinct starboard leanings might call it the titanic! but hopefully he would come up with something more imaginative! I like the name black pig …. does this make john our captain pugwash? I dont mind funneling some money into the ship for a short time …. but it is certainly a concern if it goes on too long …. which i guess is why John Key is constantly sailing around asia to make buddies and sell them milk n stuff.
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 8:53 pm
And johnny please dont use the hammer ….. ! Politics is just a silly game that grown ups get far to upset about!
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 9:22 pm
I have heard Key speak three times and he is great to listen to. DPF’s summation is correct: He talks to, rather than at, an audience. He needs to keep that candidness.
There is the mantra of “campaign on the right, govern in the centre”. He’s certainly governing in the centre.
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 9:43 pm
Gooner
“There is the mantra of “campaign on the right, govern in the centre”. He’s certainly governing in the centre.”
So effectively you are saying that John Key told us all a pack of lies during the last election campaign.
He lied about getting tough on dole and DPB parasites
He lied about “ongoing tax cuts”
He lied about the Nat’s being the party of personal responsibility
He lied about “one rule for all”
He lied about not raising GST
He lied about the ETS
Do you think that next time around he might have the balls to tell us that those who vote for the Nat’s are going to get a socialist government?
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 9:47 pm
He got rid of Helen.
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 9:51 pm
And replaced her with his own smile and wave version of socialism.
Come on Johnboy, what is key other than Helen Clark with a better smile and better fitting suits?
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 9:58 pm
I wish you wouldn’t put it quite like that BB.
I still have nightmares of a thing in trousers with bad teeth grinning at me and when I wake up screaming, its, ‘moved on’.
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 10:52 pm
How does 0.6% growth (lower than the population increase), a total refusal to invest measures to help our productivity or education system and record low business conidence add up to a business- friendly government? The people worst hit by the poor results of this government are its own supporters- business.
Talk to any business owner at the moment and you will see what I mean.
He may get back next year but the next term is going to be very difficult for Key as all his donaters go broke.
Vote:July 14th, 2010 at 5:37 am
Lance says on July 13th, 2010 at 3:49 pm:
New Zealand had its chance to be in the sun. A Brash lead Government in 2005 would have made a real diference to New Zealand. Instead New Zealanders chose to lock themselves into a Poverty destined pathway.
I took the only rational decision left to me and quit the country.
Let the country rot. Don’t mourn the permanently hopeless. Evolutionary processes will take care of the rest for the meek do not inherit the Earth. Suffer the children indeed.
Vote:July 14th, 2010 at 8:48 am
C’mon BB, just because he was born in Canterbury is no reason to throw logic and intelligence out the window when analysing his tenure. It raises a wry smile when you use that tactic on rugby players but you show yourself up when you take it to a wider stage.
Vote:July 14th, 2010 at 10:14 am
Key believes that if you look and sound relaxed enough you can get away with doing the complete opposite of what you promised.
Well, that only works for as long as you can keep the wool pulled tightly over the public’s eyes.
So far, so good.
But what if the great mass of New Zealanders – including those deluded Nats who still think he’s running NZ for them – were suddenly made aware in the plainest of English of exactly what’s being done to their country?
Of how nice Mr Key is governing it for the benefit of Lucy Lawless and Tariana Turia, not his own supporters.
And what if the Loosehead Lucies should realise that their much-prized foreshore and seabed is going to be handed over to Tariana’s mob before Christmas?
(It was apparently their opposition to the proposed handover of the Urewera National Park to Tuhoe that caused Key to scupper that plan – not the dissent within National, about which he’s not remotely concerned.)
When one of JK’s pets realises just what he’s giving away to the other, then I think we might find our cheery PM starting to looking distinctly Ruddy.
What’s needed is a major information campaign. I think it will happen soon.
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