Gillard calling the election

July 17th, 2010 at 12:08 pm by David Farrar

has gone to the Australian Governor-General to dissolve Parliament and call the election.

The date is now thought to be 21 August, so it will e a short sharp campaign, trying to pit it as a leadership choice between Gillard and Abbott.

The election will be for all 150 MPs and 38 out of 76 senators.

I rate Gillard as the favourite to win, but campaigns generally can and do matter, and we’ll see what happens. The Coalition needs to win 11 seats.

Her fix to the boat people issues is coming a bit unravelled, and it is also becoming clear the compromise with the miners was in fact a $7.5 billion backdown.

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14 Responses to “Gillard calling the election”

  1. Adolf Fiinkensein (2,703 comments) says:

    Yes it will be wonderful sport for a few weeks.

    A week ago I too would have put Gillard as favorite but now I’m not so sure. Having the squealing little Ruddlet dropping his little bombshells about secret deals on which she has welshed will not help. Aussies don’t like that sort of thing, whether it be Hawke/Keating, Howard/Costello or Gillard/Rudd.

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  2. Johnboy (17,015 comments) says:

    Anything thats almost as hideous as Helen is in with a chance though Adolf.

    After all our respective cultures aren’t that far apart.

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  3. Fletch (6,527 comments) says:

    It’s probably best for her that she does it now, while she is a novelty and before her true nature is known.
    If she wins, the Aussies will be stuck with another Helen Clark for three years (or however long their election cycle is).

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  4. Rex Widerstrom (5,013 comments) says:

    Adolf is right… plus, coincidentally, there’s a new book on Hawke about to be launched written by his mistress Blanche whats-her-name, which details the making and breaking of deals between Hawke and Keating AND a mini-series starting this Sunday on the same topic. So the two are already warring in the media, Keating claiming he “carried” Hawke, Hawke claiming Keating was lazy etc.

    All of which might be enough to get Abbott over the line by reminding people what the ALP is like. But 11 seats is a huge ask. And remember, power quite often resides in the Senate’s ability to block or delay – and in that race, expect a rise in the Green vote.

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  5. trout (954 comments) says:

    Don’t know whether a Gillard’s honeymoon will extend to an election bunfight. She has been desperately papering over the cracks in the Rudd government and trying to look decisive. A vigorous election campaign may dethrone her if Abbot can expose her weaknesses. The voters (and the MSM) are unlikely to fall for Rudd like platitudes; form without substance. They will demand specific doable policies.

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  6. bchapman (649 comments) says:

    Yeah Trout maybe they’ll demand 5% unemployment, sustainable economic growth and increasing wages (unlike other countries I could name).

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  7. Johnboy (17,015 comments) says:

    It won’t matter who wins. The Chinese will own Australia a couple of years after they have bought us.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-10/china-june-trade-surplus-20-02-billion-exports-rise-44-customs-says.html

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  8. Bob R (1,420 comments) says:

    Good luck to the Stable Population Party:

    “Although Australia is an open and tolerant country with a rich history in migration, we are now at a critical juncture with little room for error.

    There is no consulting the electorate. No real democracy. Nothing was mentioned by Kevin Rudd before the last election, yet he proceeded to increase the already high annual net overseas migration level by well over 100,000 to around 300,000 by June 2009 – a record high and three times its recent average!

    Around 65% of our population growth is driven by this migration policy and exacerbated by a policy of offering baby ‘bonuses’. Australia has at present twice as many births as deaths, meaning we also had a large ‘natural’ increase of around 150,000 people in 2009. One thing a responsible Australian Government can do to achieve a stable and sustainable population is to abolish the baby bonus. Another is to reduce immigration from its record high level.

    Our extreme population growth is clearly not inevitable, it is mainly the outcome of successive Federal Government policies, and the indifference of many Greens leaders.”

    http://www.populationparty.com/

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  9. Johnboy (17,015 comments) says:

    It really gets down to either you Aussies do the rooting or the foreigners do it for you Bob R.

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  10. Hurf Durf (2,860 comments) says:

    Questions to which the answer is yes:

    I wonder if Granny Huruld’s World section will be pro-Gizzard to the hilt in the same way it was pro-Lib Dem and pro-Hussein?

    Anyway, good luck to the Libs. My own suspicion that they could probably make it across the line has been substantially damaged by Labor’s decision to dump Krudd before he could do anymore damage. I wonder if David Miliband is looking on, wondering what might have been?

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  11. Brian Harmer (687 comments) says:

    It’s a bleak election landscape when you are forced to choose someone you don’t want because everyone else is worse. That’s the likely prospect in all the local body elections (probably including Auckland).

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  12. Johnboy (17,015 comments) says:

    But that’s how we chose Shonkey. :)

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  13. tvb (4,554 comments) says:

    I predict Abbott will have a small 3-5 seat overall majority, mainly from second preferences from conservative christian labour voters.

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  14. Murray (8,803 comments) says:

    She had to call and election, shes already being burned in efigy by the left and its not looking to get any better.

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