Labour’s future leadership
July 13th, 2010 at 11:00 am by David FarrarAs I blogged yesterday, the chances of there being a Labour-led Government after the 2011 election is very remote. Not just because of the gap in the polls, but also because of their failure to rejuvenate, but more importantly their failure to mend bridges with the Maori Party who might hold the balance of power after the election.
So unless there is some big event such as a second recession, or a major scandal, Phil Goff is unlikely to become Prime Minister. So who will replace him, when and why?
When?
Turning to the when, and I still maintain that Goff is safe until the election – even if Labour stay below 30%. There are three reasons for this:
- Lack of enthusiasm for the alternatives
- The shared delusion that the public will wake up to its mistake and restore them to power once they prove that John Key really is a nasty nasty man
- The impact of MMP, sheltering Caucus more than FPP did
The last point is quite important. Under FPP MPs got more panicked by the polls. If the polls showed they were in trouble in their seat, then they were facing the end of their political career, so they would desperately vote to change leaders to try and hold on to their seats – as Labour did in 1990.l
But under MMP, MPs can be protected on the list, so they do not fear bad polling so much. And even though the polls may show Labour losing as many as seven List MPs, the fact is no one knows which seven MPs may be toast until Labour ranks its list, and by then it is too late.
So I am quite confident that Phil Goff will remain Leader until after the 2011 election. But if they lose, I would expect he will retire from the leadership and politics within 6 – 12 months of the 2011 election.
Who?
I believe the next leader of the Labour Party will be David Cunliffe. And yes, of course I have my money where my mouth is and am backing that stock on iPredict.
Why?
It isn’t exactly a closely guarded secret that David Cunliffe isn’t the most popular MP with his colleagues. He probably isn’t the first choice for Leader of more than a handful of MPs. But he will become Leader, because he is basically everyone’s acceptable second choice.
Being the acceptable second choice can be a better position than a faction’s first choice. Similiar politics happened in the Waitakere selection – one faction was backing Twyford strongly and one faction (union) backing McCracken. Carmel Sepuloni came through the middle as the choice acceptable to all sides who could unify the electorate – either Twyford or McCracken would have left a significant minority disgruntled.
It is also worth remembering that Helen was positioning Cunliffe as a future leader, if she got a fourth term. She wanted to keep Goff out, and after Maharey retired and Mallard imploded, Cunliffe was her favoured candidate to succeed her. The 2008 loss, meant that Cunliffe did not have enough experience to be viable at that stage, so she let the leadership temporarily transfer to the man she she had worked so hard to keep away from it.
Why Not?
Cunliffe is basically the only acceptable alternative to the caucus. One can ascertain this by going through the others known to want the job.
Shane Jones – even before the hotel porn saga, Jones was not going to become leader. The women in Labour would rather slit their wrists than elect Jones, and while they are not a majority in caucus, they are a minority too powerful to ignore. Also Jones hasn’t shown the required hard work to become leader – he overly relies on his (quite considerable) natural talent. He is also too right wing economically to become Leader.
Andrew Little – Andrew has made a tactical mistake by combining the three roles of party president, union leader and aspiring MP. There is considerable resentment of this in the caucus, and he is blamed for the lacklustre fundraising to date. One Labour person commented to me that how can you expect the President one week to be getting donations from CEOs, when the next week he is delivering strike notices to them. Add onto that the resentment from List MPs that Andrew will be automatically given a high list ranking, knocking them down the order.
So Andrew will enter caucus with a degree of pre-existing hostility. While he may one day become Leader if he proves himself, he will not be given a Bob Hawke type coronation after just a year in Parliament.
Ruth Dyson – John Key would start going to church (to thank God) if Labour elected Ruth Dyson as Leader. Nothing against Ruth’s skills, but she is a polarising figure strongly associated with the former Government.
Maryan Street – I rate Street as one of the smartest MPs, and she has the ability to be a strong Minister and maybe even Deputy Leader. But I don’t see at all the charisma to become leader or prime minister. Maryan being elected as Leader would also see John Key, if not start attending church, at least sending his kids to Sunday School!
Grant Robertson – Grant is a very smart political operator. Too smart to try and become leader after just one term in Parliament. He has what I expect will become a fairly safe seat for him, and time is on his side. I think the bastard might even be younger than me! If Grant stood in 2012, he might do surprisingly well, but I think he knows he is better to wait his time and get more experience before he tries to ascend.
Ashraf Choudhary – just kidding 
Then what?
It is dangerous to look too far ahead, but my best pick at this stage is David Cunliffe become Leader in 2012, and he contests the 2014 election.
Labour will have a challenge in replacing him as Finance Spokesperson, with a so few MPs having the necessary skills or background. To my mind, the only credible option would be David Parker. So the leadership team could be Cunliffe as Leader, Street as Deputy and Parker as Finance.
Like Goff, Cunliffe will probably be a one shot leader unless he wins the election. They call this the Mike Moore slot. He doesn’t have (at this stage anyway) the loyalty of enough MPs to keep him in the job if he loses.
If National wins the 2014 election (and no predictions this far out), then Labour will have another leadership change. I believe their post 2014 leader will be their long-term leader – like Clark they will be in the job for 10 – 15 years or so, and they will become Prime Minister.
This could see a Grant Robertson vs Andrew Little battle. That would be very interesting. I’ve been pretty impressed with David Shearer also, and wouldn’t rule him out as a contender also. Kelvin Davis has potential also – but I see him more as a future Education Minister.
Of course a John Key or Don Brash type candidate may enter Parliament for Labour in 2011, and also by 2014 become a potential leader. However the fact almost all their Caucus is standing again, makes it harder for them to parachute any stars in.
Time will tell if my predictions come true.
Tomorrow, I will blog on how I would “sell” David Cunliffe once he is Leader.
Related posts:
- ODT looks at new leadership for Labour
- Parsons on Labour leadership
- The Leader in Waiting
- The blogosphere on Labour leadership
July 13th, 2010 at 11:24 am
I do enjoy these thorough analytical Kiwiblog posts, really what makes Kiwiblog unique in the NZ blogosphere.
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 11:44 am
My vote is for Trevor Mallard.
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 11:54 am
Great post. Thank you, David.
I suspect that Helen Clark annointed Goff as her successor precisely because Labour was unlikely to win in 2011. This gave the caucus right their bone and neutralised them for when Labour selected the next leader after Goff.
That said, Goff was actually the best choice, and not just a sacrifice. Labour’s chances of winning in 2011 always depended on National self-destructing. If that had happened the best person to be leading Labour would have been a known and trusted figure who could offer a “return to normality” – ie Goff.
I note you do not consider Mallard as a possibility. I wonder if he shares that view? I can envisage Labour turning to Mallard – despite the drawbacks, in desperation at the lack of anyone else who can fight as hard as he can. If elegance does not work, why not try a touch of mongrel?
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 11:55 am
The question is, who does Helen want?
Or is she just waiting to make her own comeback?
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 12:09 pm
As far as I can read things Mallard would rather pickle his own testicles than try and lead a cluster fuck of new labour, unionist, wymyn, rainbow and academic factions. Think he’d prefer to dress in Lycra and hold up traffic along Oriental parade.
Could be wrong though.
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 12:24 pm
I support Parakura Slim Horomia in his quest to become the socialist’s next leader.
Vote:Imagine the years of bonanza for Chinese restaurants and takeaways.
July 13th, 2010 at 12:38 pm
No mention of Darren Hughes? Maybe around 2014 he becomes the first 30-something (and first red-head!) to be Labour’s leader.
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 12:40 pm
Personally, I doubt that Cunliffe will ever become leader. I have no doubt that he could be a good Finance Minister and deputy leader (in the mould of Michael Cullen), but he lacks the “common touch”. However he may end up in the role for a while, if only because Labour has no other options.
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 12:46 pm
Labour, and the political “left” has always been a factional organisation. If we are to look at the factionalisation of NZ politics post MMP, and the various parties that have resulted, only NZ First has come from the right.
The Progressives, United Future, The greens have all come from Labour, or the alliance, which came from Labour.
The Maori Party has it’s roots in Labour
Even ACT came from Labour.
Factions within labour seldom fall into line for long.
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 12:54 pm
Very interesting analysis. I agree that it seems most likely that Goff will fade himself out in 2012, perhaps a bit quicker than you suggest.
I wouldn’t rule that out. Not all those who become leader start with charisma – Helen Clark is a good (but not the only) example. She was widely criticised for her public face but she hung in there and the rest is history.
I wouldn’t say Cunliffe has oodles of charisma either.
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 12:58 pm
To the Chinese?
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 1:03 pm
Thanks DPF – a very inciteful (sic) piece.
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 1:33 pm
Great call, expat! You and I are in danger on having a spot of mutual respect breaking out! We’re in dire need of the Minister to hurry up and decide to regulate termination rates so we can have another discussion about it on here!
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 1:50 pm
Goff Labour has no-one, just as Rowling Labour had no-one. They desperately need to unearth another Lange.
Personality-wise, Darren Hughes seems like a good bet for the future.
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 1:54 pm
Who does Helen want, scrubone?
The contender who most resembles her is Maryan Street.
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 1:59 pm
“It isn’t exactly a closely guarded secret that David Cunliffe isn’t the most popular MP with his colleagues. He probably isn’t the first choice for Leader of more than a handful of MPs”
So, Cunliffe is NZ Liarbore’s very own KRudd?
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 2:10 pm
I agree Cunliffe is the only viable person on offer. But he has a very high opinion of himself, combine that with his sneering lip – he has a Kevin Rudd quality about him without the easy charm. Over the horizon is Stuart Nash who has name recognition, film star looks and solid economic credentials.
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 2:21 pm
Great post DPF. However when you look at the Labour lot there is no one person with Leadership stamped on them. None have the touch that JK has and that Lange Kirk both had.
They all look so distant from the citizens. Nothing in common with them. In these days of the presidential style unless Labour can find a real alternative to JK they will continue to be seen as nonrepresentative of the majority.
With the browning of NZ IMHO the Maori Party will strengthen and given the enterprise of young Maori leaders it will continue its alignment with the Nats.
The old days when Maori were just voter fodder for labour are over even though many Labour Party members dont get it.
Young Maori leaders see Labour as the past that shackled their parents and grandparents from advancing by throwing welfare at them instead of supporting their enerprise.
In 10 years unless Labour can reinvent itself I see it at the same level of support as the Greens. A party of the 20th Century unable to adapt to the new world.
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 2:28 pm
Which ever way you look at Labours future it will not be winning any elections for quite sometime.
I’m still with Little… and Labour being a minor workers party a shadow of its former self, and it will have little hope of getting to govern without the alliance of many other minor parties… and I can’t see them ever having enough minor party support.
National could work on its own, but has Moari Act Dunne and could work with the Greens on small business enterprises, plus the Greens are not keen on the ETS with Labour that would be worse… National may even be pressured to pull the plug on the ETS if it proves to have no benefit.
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 2:33 pm
Oh please, please can we have David Parker as deputy leader, it will be like having Bill Rowling back in the house again.
I can just see Sir Bob Jones letting mice loose on the set of Q&A.
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 2:38 pm
“Tomorrow, I will blog on how I would “sell” David Cunliffe once he is Leader.”
Lol, good luck, I have been in ‘sales’ for twenty five years and even if I say so myself I could sell sand to arabs, but ‘selling’ Cunliffe to the people as anything other than the arrogant wanker he undoubtedly is would be near impossible.
Labour need to think long term, they simply do not have anybody on their front two benches that is going to galvanise the public, DPF hinted at the struggles and factions inside the party, these are not going to go away in a hurry, for Labour to be an effective opposition there needs to be a huge clean out and a massive internal battle to rest power away from the unions and homosexual and lesbian factions.
Only then can they present themselves to the people of NZ as the party of the working man.
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 2:54 pm
I just cannot believe that NZ has sunk to such a political low point that someone as dopey as Cunliffe is even being considered as a potential leader of the main opposition party.
I watched him in parliament, and he was always smirking, arrogant, and dismissive of the public’s right to know. Unaccountable, sneering and with an air of superiority that was as unjustified as a garden mole that might proclaim itself an expert in astronomy.
That this utterly appalling individual even has the nerve to aspire to lead the country is not only a measure of his self infatuation but also of his detachment from reality.
My guess is Little, but I’m by no means sure. I reckon there’s a good chance the wets/ Progressives in Labour are on a downward slide, and traditional Labour is finally trending upwards again. Unionists have been Labour leaders before. The only factor that may stop Little is an overall belief in Labour that Progressivism is still fashionable.
This might make them cling to reps from the Rainbow Faction (for example) and Progressives like Cunliffe, but if they do go down that path, they’ll keep losing elections for the time it takes them to understand that political sentiment in the public for that kind of faction is not what is was a few years ago.
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 3:00 pm
“National may even be pressured to pull the plug on the ETS if it proves to have no benefit.”
Vote:Never. Hell will freeze over first.
The new tax is a very nice revenue earner, so why would this spineless government do away with it? Smith will defend it until his last breath.
July 13th, 2010 at 3:04 pm
BB, Isn’t that part of the problem?
Vote:Labor has left it’s working class roots and is now a mishmash of the interest groups you identifed.
Even those with Union backgrounds are professional unionists. None of them have worked on the “shop floor” and certainly none of them have worked in a mine as the founding fathers of the party did on the West Coast.
July 13th, 2010 at 3:22 pm
*Yawn* DPF…you aint sayin nuthin slick to an oilcan in pickin Cunliffe for the party leader win in a post Goff world. Fuck blogging about selling him.
If you really think you got handle on this prediction shit, then show us your chops by counterfactualising a scenario if there is some big event such as a second recession, or a major scandal and Phil Goff becomes Prime Minister.
Who will replace Key, when and why and what of English who’s already a proven failure in the leadership and soon to be finance minister stakes ?
Brownlee ?… hah he’s about as popular as shit on toast for breakfast.
Joyce ?…paint him red, put some horns on him and give him a fork to help Brownlee eat shit on toast
Maybe some of the wimminfolk ? oh no i think i just peed a little from laughing so hard.
Not a lot of talent in the National ranks…or is there ?
[DPF: I would say Steven Joyce and Simon Power would be the two most likely to take over if Key got hit by a bus. It is too early to say, but a couple of the 2008 intake such as Hekia Parata and Amy Adams could be in contention if five or six years - but will depend how they go as Ministers once they make the Cabinet]
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 3:28 pm
“Not a lot of talent in the National ranks…or is there ?”
What about the ineffable Nick Smith? That’s a first class pretender.
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 3:32 pm
I hope silent T is picked but why would they .. he is a nasty vindictive person in the Dame Helen Clark mould BUT he has no appeal outside his family.
Vote:Nash isn’t sharp enough in debates, Street dresses like Gary Glitter, before being arrested, Daffy has been telling his Facebook fans that he is not interested (at least that was the case before he de-friened me), the Ginga has no show, Shearer (and Parker) is boring and Andrew 2 (now 3) jobs Little now needs to do some serious grovelling to get there.
July 13th, 2010 at 4:05 pm
Hekia Parata would be New Zealand’s Obama. Very telegenic and charismatic.
If there’s any of New Zealand not in iwi ownership after Key has finished with it, she would complete the handover. The perfect symbol of post-Pakeha Aotearoa.
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 5:15 pm
Good post DPF – with stuff like this you’re at your best, as there really isn’t anywhere else with this kind of analysis.
For those who think that Labour will never be elected again, I recall when people on the lefty blogs used to say things like that. Particularly after the Don Brash loss. About how National would never be electable, the public didn’t want all that baby eating carry on. Look at National now. It’s swings and roundabouts, Labour’s time will come again. Both because it will just be time, but also because National will inevitably become arrogant in power, will start to ignore the people, will run out of ideas, will run out of excuses. Not that I like that as an answer, but the reality is that sometimes 1 term of Labour is better than another term of National. For all that KRudd is an idiot, Howard had lost his way, and the Libs in Australia needed a wakeup call. They’ve had it, and Abbott has definitely reinvigorated them.
The question is who from Labour will step up. DPF has pretty much nailed it I think, although I wouldn’t underrate Little. The reality is that the talent on the Labour side of the house isn’t in the house, it’s out there in the union movement. Little is just one example, and as the vacuum becomes clear, some more people will want to come across. Maybe McCarten, for example? Would Harre try for a come back? I’m not close to the union movement, but I’ll bet there’s some talent (at least, in the terms that Labour type people would consider to be talent – so not someone with a real job, but someone who’s been an activist for years or some such).
As for National’s depth of talent. Well, NZ is a small country, and being an MP isn’t the most attractive of jobs. Maybe Upton will come back one day?
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 5:23 pm
You might be right with Cunliffe but I don’t believe he has the nonce for the job. He has little understanding about how the world outside of Parliament works.
Vote:If they wanted to groom a leader from the current mob, I would go for Darren Hughes. Long term he has good potential as long as he doesn’t get embedded with the old labour way of thinking.
They are really ripe for a takeover from without and this may be exactly what happens. A new fresh leader “with vision” could arise, rebrand and do surprisingly well.
July 13th, 2010 at 5:33 pm
[DPF: I would say Steven Joyce and Simon Power would be the two most likely to take over if Key got hit by a bus. It is too early to say, but a couple of the 2008 intake such as Hekia Parata and Amy Adams could be in contention if five or six years - but will depend how they go as Ministers once they make the Cabinet]
OK…neither of them have that everyman factor Key has, so there’d be a bit of a comedown in settling for either of them 2.
But barring getting hit by a bus, what sort of scandal would it take to wipe the teflon coating off Key’s persona and hand Goff the win ?
And of course theres gonna be a second recession so how bad does it have to be ?…Not very to make goneburger out of English, or is he a goneburger in the next reshuffle anyway to clear a path for Joyce ?
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 6:07 pm
Let’s not forget that Cunliffe will NEVER be able to credibly criticise National for the sacking of ECAN. Cunliffe sacked the democratically elected Hawke’s Bay District Health Board early in 2008, and only a few months after the DHB elections. He’s also got the Bill Liu scandal to survive. He was advised by his officials to revoke Liu’s residence permit when it was found that Liu was using multiple identities. He did not, and Liu later got citizenship in very dubious circumstances.
Vote:July 13th, 2010 at 8:37 pm
Interesting post.
Vote:Darren Hughes – you must be joking. Only there because of Annette King’s backing. Hasn’t had a real job and one of Aunty Helen’s favourites. Needs to grow up.
David Cunliffe, a possibility but does he have the support of the Labour caucus? Certainly very bright.
Grant Roberston, needs to wait a little longer. Again, one of Aunty Helen’s favourites. Out for himself.
David Shearer, a real possibility. Met him in Auckland once. Certainly one of the least boring people I have ever met. I think he has the ability to win people over.
David Parker, needs to show he has the stuff of a leader. No match for Finlayson in his Shadow Attorney-General role. Boring as hell.
July 13th, 2010 at 8:56 pm
Labour have to re-invent themselves. That will take time, look at the polls, 2017and they are in with a chance.
Little is the man who will re-invent Labour he has already started. Look to your own comments.
["Andrew Little – Andrew has made a tactical mistake by combining the three roles of party president, union leader and aspiring MP". and "So Andrew will enter caucus with a degree of pre-existing hostility. While he may one day become Leader if he proves himself, he will not be given a Bob Hawke type coronation after just a year in Parliament."]
Cunliffe (or whoever else accepts the poisoned chalice) will only be a holding card when Goff is rolled.
Little is the man in 2017!
Vote: