Sports and politics
August 24th, 2010 at 11:06 am by David FarrarBob Brockie writes:
But three Californian economists – Andrew Healy, Neil Malhotra and Cecilia Mo – have just shown that completely irrelevant events can swing public voting. They matched up top American college football and basketball results between 1964 and 2009 with results from senate and presidential elections.
The economists found that local wins and losses affected voters’ choice of candidates. More exactly, they found that a win in the 10 days before election day gave the incumbent candidate an extra 1.6 per cent more votes. The effect was most noticeable where sports teams had a big following of fans.
So if the All Blacks continue with this form, John Key will call the election for Saturday 29 October 2011 
Of course the PM will not have the election campaign overlap with the Rugby World Cup. I believe the likely date is the last Saturday of November. I suspect that six weeks after a sporting event, any impact on how people vote will be minimal.
Tags: Election 2011, Rugby World Cup, Sport
August 24th, 2010 at 11:24 am
It depends on whether we win or not DPF. The All Blacks got beaten in the semis in the 1999 RWC on 31 October, and Jenny Shipley got the DCM on 27 November.
Vote:August 24th, 2010 at 11:30 am
I suspect it depends on how big the occasion is, and how strongly people feel about it. The RWC is a very big occasion. People aren’t quite so rabid about rugby as they used to be, but this is a home RWC, and a lot of people will return to the fold during the cup. A loss, particularly a “bad” loss (i.e. don’t get to the finals, or otherwise embarrassingly lose) I reckon would be worth 2-3 points even 6 weeks after. With Key’s current ratings, that probably isn’t fatal. But still significant.
Vote:August 24th, 2010 at 11:36 am
Can’t wait for Labour to start advocating for an All Black loss….
Vote:August 24th, 2010 at 1:03 pm
By the time the RWC comes around the World will be in a financial slump. The economy will obviously be the focus and the rugby will be less of an issue. The AB’s are running true to form and we will see how they turn up next year. With Carter, McCaw, Brad Thorn and Woodcock there they will have a show. With a couple missing, all bets are off.
Vote:August 24th, 2010 at 1:07 pm
I don’t think the RWC will have a direct effect, but if the economy is stagnant, people are out of work and prices are heading skywards then it could add to a cumulative impact on National’s vote.
Vote:August 24th, 2010 at 6:19 pm
Sorry without any supporting logic this story does not check out.
Vote:August 24th, 2010 at 11:55 pm
I have long been convinced that how the All Blacks fare in a Rugby World Cup can have a direct effect on an election. Even if the 2011 election is 6 weeks after the rugby finishes it will still have some impact on voting patterns. So I want the All Blacks to win the World Cup for two very good reasons not just one! If I was a big Labour man and not too bothered about the rugby I would be hoping for a bitter qf/sf loss. I really do think it makes quite a bit of difference – which is a scary thing.
Vote:August 25th, 2010 at 8:54 am
Regardless of rugby scores , Key and co have lot of work to do in Canterbury. A flashy, belated pamphlet won’t do it.
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