Thoughts on the Australian election result

August 22nd, 2010 at 9:20 am by David Farrar
  1. Labor ran an awful campaign. Almost policy-free, and all about demonising Tony Abbott.
  2. Tony Abbott ran a very good campaign, and really only stuffed up once on the campaign trail.
  3. Gillard’s climate change policy of referring the issue to a citizen’s assembly was their biggest mistake as it alienated both sides on that issue and was seen as utterly cynical.
  4. Rudd’s leaks against Gillard did damage Labor, and the anger over his rolling was a factor.
  5. Even if Labor retain government, Gillard may face an unhappy caucus as the Rudd faction will point out she blew his majority.
  6. The truth is Rudd probably would have lost by a bigger margin, but this will fade from memory.
  7. While the three Independents can put Abbott into power, he will not have a Senate majority, so don’t assume it is a done deal for Abbott.
  8. It is possible Labor and Greens could do a coalition deal, with some Green Senators becoming Ministers. They need Wilkie (likely) and at least one Independent to support them in the House, unless they pick up an extra seat on special votes.
  9. The two election parties were such a contrast – Labor half empty and dejected, and Liberals cheering their hero Tony.
  10. Whatever happens, a three year term for the next Government looks unlikely.
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89 Responses to “Thoughts on the Australian election result”

  1. MyNameIsJack (2,415 comments) says:

    The Liberals must be kicking themselves right now and wondering why they didn’t hang on to Turnbull as leader. Oh, if only they could have seen the future.

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  2. Craig Ranapia (1,912 comments) says:

    @MyNameIsJack: Well, I do have to note the delicious irony that Turnbull enjoyed a 10% swing in Wentworth.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/king-malcolm-bestrides-turnbull-territory-20100822-13a8s.html

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  3. tom hunter (3,998 comments) says:

    MNJ

    I love the smell of troll narrative framing in the morning. It smells like………losing.

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  4. grumpyoldhori (2,410 comments) says:

    Craig Ranapia What, keep a Liberal as head of the Liberal party, tsk,tsk.

    Surprising a good Catholic like Abbot did not bring the abortion issue up if Catholics are against abortion as much as they say they are.
    Or would that have put the women voters off ?

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  5. backster (2,000 comments) says:

    My thoughts If Abbott wins Key & Smith are going to look like fools as they impose ETS costs on our standard of living and production. Abbott doesn’t believe in Global Warming…On the other hand if GILLARD wins she will have to do a deal with the Greens which will probably ensure Australians have an ETS imposed on them making Key& Smith prescient.

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  6. Murray (8,835 comments) says:

    See what happens when you put a ginga in charge.

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  7. side show bob (3,660 comments) says:

    So it’s a hung parliament ? Just catching up with the news, spring is such a crazy time of year. So the commies are still in power?. How marvelous, there shall be much merriment, now that the Aussies have their own three ring circus.

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  8. Michael (880 comments) says:

    I see there is a 5.64% informal vote in Australia – 1 in every 18 votes. How much of that is delibrate and how much is the complex voting papers?

    [DPF: Some is a protest against compulsory voting]

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  9. ciaron (1,157 comments) says:

    So mmp isn’t the only system that encourages back room wheelin’ & dealin’?

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  10. s.russell (1,486 comments) says:

    At least the wheeling and dealing in a divided Parliament is out in the open where the public can see what deals have been made. With FPP the wheeling and dealing took place within parties where the public could not see it – and sometimes resulted in electing Governments that where radically different to what people thought they had elected.

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  11. Murray (8,835 comments) says:

    You mean like john Key being the Maori partys bitch because thats not what we voted for but its what we got.

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  12. tvb (3,937 comments) says:

    Abbott will be facing a hostile senate from the middle of june next year. That will give him plenty of time to have a snap election late next year. The independants might go to Labour on the issue of climate change. More likely they will keep open a deal with Labour to ratchet up their deal with Abbott. There are some difficult personality issues between the Independents and the Nationals. I assume Abbott will deal with those. But any deal he gives the Independents will have to match what he offers the Nationals as well. Not easy, not impossible. In some ways Labour will be easier to deal with as they will not have to buy off the Nationals as well. But the political momentum lies with Abbott.

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  13. ciaron (1,157 comments) says:

    You mean like john Key being the Maori partys bitch because thats not what we voted for but its what we got.

    I can understand the tactic of bringing them on board as a junior junior partner to make Labour irrelevant, but I can’t understand why Key seems to be pandering to their every whim.

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  14. bchapman (649 comments) says:

    Whoever the idiot was that dreamed up the citizen’s assembly for climate change idea ought to be sacked. The incompetent handling of this issue and the Timor-solution (or non solution) lost them the seat of Melbourne to the Greens and exposed Gillard to ridicule at start of the campaign. I think Labor blaming the leaks in the second week for the big poll drop seen in th second week is just a convenient excuse for their own incompetence and stupidity.

    Climate Change is a lot bigger issue over there, as the Murray-Darling food basin dries up and Labor stuffed it up big-time. Now they will need to go suck up the Greens- nice irony there.

    Abbott really didn’t need to do much at all- he just reverted to his John Howard clone ideas.

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  15. Murray (8,835 comments) says:

    You and 4 million other people ciaron. A fair portion of them being the people who voted for his party.

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  16. PaulP (126 comments) says:

    As a slight aside could someone explain to me why the Oz Labor party call themselves “Labor” rather than “Labour” when they generally use the same spelling as us?

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  17. BeaB (1,944 comments) says:

    Oh dear, Murray. I don’t know what is worse – that shameful expression or your thinking behind it.

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  18. MyNameIsJack (2,415 comments) says:

    Yes.

    It was partly because of the influence of the American Labor Movement at the time of the ALP’s founding.

    It was partly to differentiate itself from the UK Labour Party.

    It was partly to differentiate itself when the press wrote about labour issues as compared to Labor (party) issues.

    Furthermore, Labor is, and was, an acceptable spelling, both now and at the time of the party’s formation.

    See what happens when a good PUBLIC education is provided?

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  19. bchapman (649 comments) says:

    Abbott may struggle to put together a viable government. Windsor and Katter are deeply distrustful of the Nationals who have a lot of divisions themselves. On top of that they have no policies apart from dragging the boat-people back out to sea- which the Greens in the Senate will give him hard time for doing. The first year of government will be spent trying to develop some new policies as they never expected to be in this position. He will also have to buy off the rural independents big-time at the same time as giving up a Carbon Tax to the Greens. I doubt he will be allowed to cut spending especially given his promises (like the ridiculously over the top parental leave scheme) and not controlling the Senate.

    If he gets to 74- Abbott will probably be PM, question is- will be want to?

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  20. Murray (8,835 comments) says:

    Whats behind it is John Key giving the Maori Party, a race based party that SHAMFULLY operates for the promotion of one race over all others, everything they bloody well demand.

    the thinking behind your comment is fairly unimpressive Beab. Or are you from South Africa and in favor of that sort of thing?

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  21. Doug (405 comments) says:

    The fun will now begin, as with all left parties the factions from within will fight amongst themselves it has already started. The Australian public will find it a major turn off, if Labour are returned to power the chances they will only last a short time in power.

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  22. Fletch (5,716 comments) says:

    I don’t know why there is a big trend to using animals to predict winners now – the octopus for the world cup, and now Harry The Croc who predicted a win for Gillard.

    It’s what I’d call a “croc of sh*t”.

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  23. Rodders (1,790 comments) says:

    The Australian media are going to love having Bob Katter in the box seat. He never hesitates to say what is (or isn’t) on his mind.

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  24. Bevan (3,965 comments) says:

    Don’t forget the cynical promise to build a rail link in NSW – that has been promised by them and state Labor for the last five elections and never delivered.

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  25. Doug (405 comments) says:

    What will happen with Kevy Rudd aspirations of moving to the UN Labor would need that like a hole in the head, they would not look forward to a bye Election.

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  26. tvb (3,937 comments) says:

    I am surprised that only now has Australia elected an indigenous member. There is much shame in the way Australians have treated the aboriginals. But I think Rudd would have won. There would not have been the wipeout in Queensland. There is no way they will admit this. I see much instability in the ALP and this may mean they will not be able to form the next Government. The Rudd factor is not played out yet. I suspect Rudd could form his own party. He has the money to do it.

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  27. MyNameIsJack (2,415 comments) says:

    they would not look forward to a bye Election.
    tvb (1,103) Says:

    August 22nd, 2010 at 1:21 pm
    I am surprised that only now has Australia elected an indigenous member.

    What the fuck are you talking about?

    Neville Bonner
    Aiden Ridgeway
    Ernie Bridge
    Malarndirri McCarthy

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  28. metcalph (1,292 comments) says:

    But I think Rudd would have won.

    The only way that Rudd would have won is if he had gone for a double dissolution when Abbott stalled his climate change legislation several months ago.

    But by ditching his legislative plans and doing all sorts of other policy reversals, he pissed his credibility against the wall. There’s no way he would have won the election if Gillard had not launched her coup.

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  29. tvb (3,937 comments) says:

    Mynameisjack you should listen to the coverage. He is the first member to the Federal Parliament. I assume the State Parliaments have elected indigenous members. I suppose that is what you are referring to. No mention was made of that when praising the election of the first aboriginal.

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  30. PaulL (5,774 comments) says:

    My view.

    73 to Coalition, 72 to Labour, 5 independents. The Senate has balance of power to Greens.

    Of the independents, one is a Green, one may as well be a Green (he stood for the Greens one other time), 3 are ex Nationals in rural electorates.

    Labour will find it very hard to form a lower house majority. They need the 2 Greens to get there (1 real Green, 1 almost Green). The 3 rural independents won’t be in favour of any grouping that includes Greens, they’d find it very hard to be relected if they support a govt with a green agenda. But if they do form govt, they’ll be able to get things through the upper house.

    The Libs will find it hard, but can probably form a grouping with the 3 rural independents. That gives them the absolute minimum to form a govt, so it will be a real tight rope – lose one member and you can’t govern. And they’ll have real difficulty getting anything through the Senate – odds on the Greens will block everything.

    What that probably means is a new election relatively soon. If Abbott can put things to the Senate and have them blocked, he can go to a double dissolution election – electing the lower house and a full new Senate. That’s a hell of a dice roll, so you’d want to be squeaky clean on your reasoning. In general going to an early election is bad for the govt, but in this case Abbott might pull it off.

    What that means for Labour is that they have to stay in campaign mode ready for an early election. They can’t afford the blood letting that they’d like. So they’re stuck with the current team, unless they’re absolutely mad.

    For Abbott, the challenge is to govern as a centrist. He doesn’t have a mandate for big policy changes, other than closing down the NBN, no ETS, and no mining tax. That’s it. So he needs to engineer a double dissolution without doing anything that anybody might argue he doesn’t have a mandate for. He needs to show that he really tried to govern, not just gave up at the first hurdle. If he can do that, it will be very character forming for him – it might set him up well for the future after that second election, as it might beat out some of his dictatorial tendencies. Best for him is if he can find some policies he can work with Labour on – so cut the Greens out that way. That would suit Labour as well – paint the Greens as being impossible, and attempt to claw some ground back from them.

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  31. tvb (3,937 comments) says:

    I disagree Metcafle. Gillard still had to carry the can for all those policy failures as she did not replace them with anything credible. The majority losing losses were mainly confined to Queensland. In all the other states the losses were minimal. It was Queensland that took away Labour’s majority. One day the ALP will confront that mis-judgement. And until they do they will have problems. In the meantime their primary vote is dropping badly. From the centre they are being slammed by Abbott who has the right in place and on the left they are leaking badly to the Greens. I think Federal Labour is stuffed.

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  32. MyNameIsJack (2,415 comments) says:

    tvb, first off, YOU wrote I am surprised that only now has Australia elected an indigenous member.

    I proved you wrong. Now you want to weasel out with He is the first member to the Federal Parliament

    Maybe I can help educate you by changing my list slightly

    SENATOR Neville Bonner
    SENATOR Aden Ridgeway

    You are aware that the term NationalParlaiment encompasses both the Hosue and the Senate, are you not?

    Here’s a dollar, go buy a fucking clue before you come back to play again.

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  33. PaulL (5,774 comments) says:

    For gods sake MNIJ. Everyone on the commentary last night was talking about the first indigenous member of the lower house of federal parliament. Are you that thick that you can’t work out what tvb is talking about?

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  34. MyNameIsJack (2,415 comments) says:

    PaulL, sorry, but I have no idea what tvb, you or anyone else were doing last night, all I can go by is what he writes above. If he’s too stupid to clarify his meaning, then that’s his problem, not yours, so kindly fuck off out of the way and let him defend his own stupidity.

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  35. flipper (3,266 comments) says:

    All of those comments may be relevant. But sage Australian based commentators ( Janet Albrechtsen of The Australian, for example) and my visiting Australian relatives, from Melbourne and Sydney, say that the back room, middle of the night coup by Labour’s faceless puppet masters was/is the single greatest problem that Gillard faced.

    The fact that Gillard was/is a non elected Prime Minister, but simply one chosen by Labour’s power-brokers who, by their own admission, placed the perceived best interests of the Labour machine above the democratic wishes of the electorate, created a poisoned chalice from which she was compelled to drink with predictably obvious consequences.
    The editorial in the Sydney Daily Telegraph of 19 August also outlines Gillard’s problem.

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  36. metcalph (1,292 comments) says:

    Gillard still had to carry the can for all those policy failures as she did not replace them with anything credible.

    And what did Rudd have to replace them with? Not a damn thing. In addition, he was still going ahead with the mining tax.

    The majority losing losses were mainly confined to Queensland.

    Let’s see. Six seats lost in NSW with a swing of 4.9% as opposed to eight seats lost in Queensland with a swing of 5.7%. Funny definition of “confined” you have there.

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  37. metcalph (1,292 comments) says:

    Being non-elected and coming to power in a coup never stopped Helen Clark.

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  38. MyNameIsJack (2,415 comments) says:

    flipper, I guess your rellies are as dumb as Albrechtesen. Just like NZ, Australians do not elect a prime minister, the PM is elected by, and holds office at the whim of, their party.

    One could say the same about Abbott, as he was never elected opposition leader, was he?

    But then, like PM’s, opposition leaders are also elected by, and hold office at the whim of, their party. I am sure just as many Liberals are wondering “what if” about Abbott butfucking Turnbull.

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  39. PaulL (5,774 comments) says:

    MNIJ – get up on the wrong side of the bed this morning? Upset that both NZ and Australia are likely to have right leaning govts? From an NZ point of view, I’m a bit upset too. I was hoping NZ might start to catch Australia, and Gillard was certainly going to help that. But then, never good to win a race by knobbling those currently winning – that’s leftie thinking that is. From an Aussie point of view, this is a good result.

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  40. tvb (3,937 comments) says:

    Mynameisjack, The Aussies are saying he is the first member of the House of Representatives. It is getting prominent coverage on TV. I assume you are not watching the coverage. AS for your swearing, you are a bully and you try and win arguments through foul language. I assume you are white trash with a limited education.

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  41. OECD rank 22 kiwi (2,785 comments) says:

    What a grouse performance from Tony Abbott. Fair dinkum to him, he did the hard yacka and got the winning result. It helps of course that Julia Gillard is a prize winning drongo. Strewth, what a result.

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  42. MyNameIsJack (2,415 comments) says:

    as I said tvb, I cannot see what you are watching or reading, I can only respond to your words.

    I have won the argument through facts, the swearing is an incidental. As to claiming I am a bully, what are you attempting with your white trash with a limited education? It seems as though my education, at least in matters Australian parliamentary, is superior to yours.

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  43. tvb (3,937 comments) says:

    Mynameis jack swearing in the context of an argument means you are uneducated white trash. I am listening to the saturation coverage on Sky. I assume you are not. The Aussies regard it as a significant milestone to have an aboriginal in the House of Representatives for the first time. We have had that for about 150 years?? mainly through our special maori seats. It is why I support the maori seats.

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  44. MyNameIsJack (2,415 comments) says:

    tvb, get a fucking clue. Swearing is a part of everyday intercourse.

    So, you’re calling me “white trash” while not seeing your own racism. I don’t care how many nungas, koories or murries are in parliament, only that the electoral process is fair.

    It is why I oppose the maori seats. There should be no room for racism in a democracy.

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  45. tvb (3,937 comments) says:

    Mynameis jack not in my circle it is, though I do swear. Aggressive swearing to try an win over an argument are the actions of a bully. You made a good point in regard to the Senate but there is no mention of that in the political analysis so far. And we have had the best people providing that under the very able Chairmanship of David Speer. I stand by my white trash comment, though I am white. If that is racist then I am proud of that. I despise aggressive swearing whites, I trust and hope I never meet you. That is what I like about blogs

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  46. reid (15,505 comments) says:

    BC and Paul, what is driving the Green’s support right now?

    3.7% national swing to them against 1.8% to the Libs: a 2:1 ratio.

    Is Aus going mental?

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  47. Hurf Durf (2,860 comments) says:

    The Liberals must be kicking themselves right now and wondering why they didn’t hang on to Turnbull as leader.

    Turnbullshit was a pinko loser trailing Rudd in everything. Turns out, a strong leader with consistent principles actually works as a leader of the opposition. Who would have thought?

    Having said that, I hope Labour pulls through so they get exterminated in the next election in a year and I get to lick the tears off Billy Bonker’s face.

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  48. bchapman (649 comments) says:

    Reid
    Greens supporters
    1. Students and university educated youths
    2. Wealthy inner city (esp Melb and Syd) professionals, concerned about treatment of asylium seekers and environmental issues.
    3. Rural lifestylers (again often wealthy, usually live on the coast somewhere).
    4. People pissed with the Labor Party, (which is essentially controlled by 2-3 large unions) but are not conservative enough to vote LP or NP.

    The main factors driving their support have been Rudd/Gillard’s failure to fight for an ETS and Labor’s attempts to match Abbott asylum seeker phobia (they are 2% of immigrants).

    I’m tipping next time around they will take more of Labor’s inner Syd and Mel and some Tas seats. Without these seats to fall back on Labor could really be in trouble if they lose favour in the poorer outer urban areas.

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  49. BeaB (1,944 comments) says:

    I have said f-ck since I was at university in Christchurch in the 60s. Swearing is one of life’s great pleasures and I say that as a well-educated, literate, middle class woman who taught English for decades and now makes a very good living writing. I am happy to see Shakespeare agreed – he had a great line in oaths and curses.
    Such petit bourgeois prudery, tvb. Perhaps like Heather Roy and many other wimpy losers you feel bullied and intimidated. Just stand on your own two feet.

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  50. Hurf Durf (2,860 comments) says:

    Frankenstein’s Monster and his Neo-Socialist Party gloating on TV. Wish he’d piss off.

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  51. Tauhei Notts (1,508 comments) says:

    Attention tvb;
    Shortly I will join a group of friends while we watch Hawkes Bay play Southland and quaff an ale or three.
    By your definition every one of my friends is a bully, as they all, at some time or another, use aggressive impolite phrases in a way to attempt to prove a point. That is what men do.
    Ponces don’t. Hey, wait a moment, my gay friends usually use swearing words when trying to get a point across. Maybe I just mix with people who use bad language, but I enjoy their company.
    tvb, you state that you would hate to meet Mynameisjack. My late father’s name was Jack and neither he nor I would have ever wanted to mix with some person like tvb.
    tvb, some people’s lexicon is so limited that the only way they know to get their message across is to use unfortunate language. To ignore those people is miss out on a large number of friendly relationships with people who have widely divergent views.
    Bullies! As one of them said;
    “If I want to listen to shit, I’ll fart.”

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  52. reid (15,505 comments) says:

    “I’m tipping next time around they will take more of Labor’s inner Syd and Mel and some Tas seats”

    They were very strong in Tassie and Vic, thanks for explaining the Vic, Tassie I can guess.

    So either you or Paul mentioned the drought was a growing and driving factor for the ETS… That would explain a lot, I wonder what the demographics were for the Green vote – a growing number of suburban mothers would show up I bet.

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  53. Rex Widerstrom (5,124 comments) says:

    Tony Abbott ran a very good campaign, and really only stuffed up once on the campaign trail.

    Were we watching the same campaign DPF? The Liberal’s ads were absolute crap. In fact they looked almost exactly like Labor’s, which were also absolute crap.

    Tony Abbott was widely expected (even by many on his own side) to stuff up once on the campaign trail, probably when presented with an unscripted question about a touchy subject like abortion. For this reason they tried to run a hermetically sealed campaign. So did Labor, despite Gillard’s third week nonsense about unleashing “the real Julia” and the outright lies told by senior Labor figures at their campaign launch that she spoke unscripted when an MSM photographer got a snap of what was clearly the entire speech, on paper, hidden on the lectern.

    Abbott however had the nous to genuineley break free of the cuffs when he could, the best example being the Rooty Hill RSL when he jumped off the stage and really intreracted and talked with the audience, not at them. Gillard on the other hand stood up on stage, looked uncomfortable among working class people, and came across very school marmish.

    Abbott’s Rooty Hill performance was, I think, a turning point for the Liberal campaign. In fact the contrast was so glaring between “working class, union rasied” Gillard and “aloof seminarian Rhodes scholar” Abbott that Bob Ellis (well known lefty nutbar) fulminated that she’d been “set up” by the RSL by being ushered onto the stage in the first place (as was Abbott of course).

    And while both burbled buckets of bullshit, Abbott broke out and spoke genuinely far more often, and answered straight questions with straight answers whilst Gillard resorted to empty slogans and playing for time.

    Abbott – whether deliberately I don’t know, but I suspect not – did the classic marketing technique of under promising and over delivering in terms of his campaign performance, and won respect and votes because of it.

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  54. MT_Tinman (2,790 comments) says:

    As of 15:30 this afternoon there’s still (according to ABC) 22% of the vote to be counted but unless there are some rather strange results both leaders lost yesterday – which is as it should be because the two protagonists appeared, at least, to be trying to out-socialism each other.

    Eight weeks ago Labour was so unpopular Abbott had only to shut up and do nothing to win easily and when he did speak up Guillard had only to show why she was a better bet than than Kevie to get the nod.

    Neither managed to do so.

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  55. bchapman (649 comments) says:

    I felt Gillard performed quite well given the circumstances- she didn’t make any major stuff ups and more than held her own in the debate and in the media. How do you think Abbott would have gone if he had to-

    1. Answer every second question about his relationship with the former leader whom she had to stab in the back at the behest of Arbib, Shorten, Conroy et al..In retropspect her biggest mistake was not telling them to piss off when they handed her the pistol.

    2.Explain cabinet decisions from 12 months ago, which ahd been leaked by an unknown cabinet colleague.

    3. Have to explain the most brain dead proposals dreamt up the policy advisors such as the climate change community forum and Parramatta-Epping railink porkbarrel.

    4. Endure the mistakes of the Qld and NSW State labour Govts.

    5.Be asked to come up with political quick fixes for the ETS, Boat People and MIning Tax political disasters in the space of six weeks.

    Looks like Katter, Oakeshott and Windsor might hand her a political second chance- be interesting see how this campaign will be viewed in three years time.

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  56. PaulL (5,774 comments) says:

    To me, the reason for the Greens support is he same as anywhere else in the world. Increasing numbers of people are turned off by the major parties – in most countries both major parties are migrating to the centre, offer very similar policies, and offer no vision. It’s about basic governmental managerialism. We all agree on a low inflation economy with some level of welfare net, in Australia that includes Medicare and a good level of pork for the farmers. We also all agree on a basically socially liberal society, with the government not intervening too much in people’s lives. To some extent this represents a victory for the right in terms of economic policy, in some terms a victory for the left in terms of social policy. Witness Abbott when asked point blank about abortion saying “that is not part of my policy platform.” Not I believe this or that, but we’re not going to do it.

    So people are looking for something different, particularly those younger people who have never lived in a society that had overweening government in the economic space, nor overweening regulations on the social sphere. They see things as always having been they way they are, and the Greens are offering something new. Unfortunately, that something new is often tainted with a lot of old, and that puts off a hell of a lot of people. But for those people who never saw what some of those policies can do, it can be attractive.

    I expect the Green vote to grow as long as it remains a protest vote. Once they get some actual power, and have to start doing something instead of endlessly pontificating, I think that their vote will start to drop. Also, the major parties will start to pick up bits of the Green agenda – the bits that make sense. That will start to draw people away. Expect to see Labor in Australia go hard against the Greens in the next election – they were a significant part of Labor’s defeat (despite the way the preference system works). Problem is, Labor need the Greens to form govt, so it gets messy for them when they make it a real contest.

    bchapman: yes, Julia did OK in the circumstances. But remember those circumstances weren’t entirely forced upon her – she helped to create them. So her own fault to a large extent.

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  57. bchapman (649 comments) says:

    Yes PaulL agree absolutely. She is a product of the Labor factional system and should been a lot stronger in standing up to her advisors.
    Interesting to see the party is laying the blame at the feet of the leaker- what a convenient scapegoat!

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  58. reid (15,505 comments) says:

    “I expect the Green vote to grow as long as it remains a protest vote.”

    Paul we’ll let you know as soon as our global temp readings start massively dropping as a result of our ETS. We’re looking at our early results right now and so far, it looks encouraging.

    Based on this we’re extremely happy with our ETS, and we think AGW is going to be gone by lunchtime, next Wednesday.

    The Greens will probably be re-elected in a massive landslide with street parties all over the land, shortly thereafter.

    Of course if it doesn’t turn out like this, the mood could turn very ugly indeed.

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  59. Guy Fawkes (702 comments) says:

    Where can one buy tapes/CD’s/DVD’s MP4/$ files of Gillard talking?

    It is just where I live, we have a BIG Rodent problem, and this may well be a very workable solution.

    I for one would prefer to grind my testicles in a meat press repeatedly for years than listen to that HECTORING BEATCH!

    What a FUCK OFF nasty, horrible individual.

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  60. TimG_Oz (883 comments) says:

    “Tony Abbott ran a very good campaign, and really only stuffed up once on the campaign trail.”

    I disagree – his first week was a disaster. Even facing “friendly” interviews he couldn’t answer questions. His appearance on “Hey Hey its Saturday” was an appalling decision.

    However it’s clear that after that week, that he got some decent coaching, and started listening to the likes of Peter Costello and Andrew Bolt for what to really say. The two debates were turning points, where Gillard totally faltered, and was exposed as a sham.

    Most Australian’s still saw it as a contest between Dumb and Dumber, which shows in the extraordinary donkey vote turnout

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  61. reid (15,505 comments) says:

    “Most Australian’s still saw it as a contest between Dumb and Dumber, which shows in the extraordinary donkey vote turnout”

    So pick anyone at all, who would be the best leader of either party right now.

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  62. TimG_Oz (883 comments) says:

    Are you asking me for my opinion, or is that a rhetorical statement?

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  63. reid (15,505 comments) says:

    Seriously – I don’t follow Aus politics, I don’t know if there’s any talent.

    Is there?

    Cause all of us need it in times like these.

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  64. PaulL (5,774 comments) says:

    reid: not an AGW fanatic, my money would be on a) lower temp rises than many claim, and b) adaptation being the only useful strategy. I don’t have a huge objection to a low carbon tax, I do have a huge objection to an ETS.

    The thing is, warming or the fear thereof isn’t the only thing driving the Green vote. All sorts of greenwashed policies get attention – more fuel economic cars, less pollution of streams and rivers, more public transport. There are a lot of people that these are a drawcard for. Some bits of those I’d also vote for, if I could get them without the socialist crap that comes with them.

    My hope is that the right, in particular, will eventually realise this, and find a way to incorporate the most practical aspects of these, in the least market distorting way. That would stop any leakage of votes from the right into the Greens – which I see as a potential large problem for the right. People who feel vaguely right wing, but feel more strongly about the environment, vote Green. Which means their vote goes left. It’s much less of a problem for the left, as voting Green or Labour gets you the same govt.

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  65. TimG_Oz (883 comments) says:

    There definitely is talent in Australian politics, much more so than in NZ politics. And that is on both sides of the spectrum. As well as still paying appropiately (NZ scrapped the Pollies Super a while back), to become an MP, you have to rise above so much more talent than in NZ. I’ve met MPs on both sides, and am generally impressed. DPF may have a different opinion, and obviously has much more exposure both sides of the Tasman – so perhaps ask him the same question.

    If I was to pick between the two parties (ignoring their leaders), I would definitely expect better from the Coalition. Unfortunately, both parties are very fractured at the moment, with leaders having been ousted recently on each side.

    The thing I see is this: The balance of power in the lower house looks like it will be held by 3 conservative farmer types. In the Upper house, it will be the Greens. The Farmers and Greens hate each other, so I would expect the farmers to side with the Coalition to form government, otherwise it’s a rubberstamp for Greenie madness if Labour were in power.

    Of course a Labour minority government would still be held accountable in the lower house by the farmers, but I would expect them to get more from the Libs.

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  66. neil (26 comments) says:

    Tvb, i disagree. MNIJ is behaving more like an educated middle class mid level manager rather than white trash.
    He thinks its his place to rule but no one will listen, thats where the swearing comes in!!
    White trash swearing is part of normal conversation, not reservered for when we’re loosing a debate…please apologize to us white trash!!

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  67. reid (15,505 comments) says:

    My hope is that the right…will…find a way to incorporate the most practical aspects of [Green policies], in the least market distorting way.

    That’s what Nick’s for, Paul. We’ve cleverly inserted him into the lefty anatomy so they think he’s one of them.

    The thing I see is this: The balance of power in the lower house looks like it will be held by 3 conservative farmer types. In the Upper house, it will be the Greens. The Farmers and Greens hate each other, so I would expect the farmers to side with the Coalition to form government, otherwise it’s a rubberstamp for Greenie madness if Labour were in power.

    Agree Tim and observe this will be an unstable govt since it can’t lose a single person. You’d have to give it less than 18 months.

    How would a Labour-Green coalition perform?

    Maybe this is one we don’t want to win.

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  68. krazykiwi (9,188 comments) says:

    NZ was first subjected to the MMP-inspired government-by-backroom-deals in 1996. The UK took their electoral medicine back in May.

    Now it’s Australia’s turn. Aussies can expect that, one by one, the would-be kingmakers will be wheeled in and offered baubles beyond their wildest voter majorities.

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  69. vibenna (305 comments) says:

    Reading this thread puts me in mind of the words of JRR Tolkien:

    “But Orcs and Trolls spoke as they would, without love of words or things; and their language was actually more degraded and filthy than I have shown it. I do not suppose that any will wish for a closer rendering, though models are easy to find. Much the same sort of talk can still be heard among the orc-minded; dreary and repetitive with hatred and contempt, too long removed from good to retain even verbal vigour, save in the ears of those to whom only the squalid sounds strong.” -

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  70. TimG_Oz (883 comments) says:

    “Agree Tim and observe this will be an unstable govt since it can’t lose a single person. You’d have to give it less than 18 months.”

    Yes, traditionally no party will want to force early election, as voters usually react against you. Rudd had the opportunity to call a double disillusion election when the ETS bill was defeated at the senate. He didn’t, even though he had a commanding lead at the polls. Gutless, and look what it cost him.

    That said, Julia did the preference deal with the Greens, and watered down climate change, which they had previously called “The greatest moral challenge of our time”. They did this to try and pick up center votes, knowing that they would lose votes to the greens, only to get the green ones back via preferences. A desparate move, that didn’t pay off.

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  71. TimG_Oz (883 comments) says:

    And to answer the question

    “How would a Labour-Green coalition perform?”

    Well Labour alone performed so badly, and that culminated in massive infighting and disharmony that we see now.

    It’s hard to imagine that if such a group of misfits forced intio a shotgun wedding with extremists, despised by 80% of the country, would perform any better. Industrialist Unions, for all their flaws, still do not want to impede industry.

    Still, Julia is hell bent to hang on to power – similar to Helen Clark in 2008, so who knows what desparate measures we are in for. She does not want to be the first female PM, only to never be elected, and out on her ass after 6 weeks.

    If she did stay, it’s hard not to see us back at the polls within a year.

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  72. reid (15,505 comments) says:

    “A desparate move, that didn’t pay off.”

    Labour-Greens could still have it though couldn’t they?

    Maybe not a good look but a possible look.

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  73. TimG_Oz (883 comments) says:

    “Labour-Greens could still have it though couldn’t they?”

    Absolutely – in some ways, the are the leader, because they are incumbent. Look at Tasmania. More likely a minority govt than a coalition (which wouldn’t give them the numbers anyway)

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  74. Rex Widerstrom (5,124 comments) says:

    Oh gawd… I think I’ll start lashing together a raft to paddle home.

    Bob Katter (one of the independents holding Australia’s future in the palms of their hands) on a special 7.30 Report tonight:

    The ALP actually did something about carbon. That’s what we need, policies that will bring Australia out of the 19th century into… … … whatever one we’re in now

    *facepalm*

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  75. bchapman (649 comments) says:

    One things for sure- the expectations of this government won’t be as high as the last. Rudd overpromised and under-delivered. If Gillard can deliver an ETS, continued economic growth and keep interest rates low, she won’t be judged harshly.

    Rex- don’t under-estimate Katter – he knows what he wants and he knows how to get it.

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  76. Rich Prick (1,319 comments) says:

    DPF, agree with all except for 3. If Gillard had said Hell would freeze over before we fuck up our economy with an ETS there would have ben a clear winner last night. My bets are on her not doing that in case there was the need for a Green or two to form a collation government. Her gamble didn’t pan out. Australians are far less prone to be Green blackmail than we. They tend to tell that lot to fuck off far more readily.

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  77. glubbster (345 comments) says:

    Has anyone realised that the result in this election will probably rest on the seat in Hasluck (WA). Labor need to overturn 400 votes with specials etc to come. If Labor do, it will be a 75-75 deadlock and the independents may be persuaded to go to Labor to form a government meaning 78-72 to Labor. Particularly since the Labor leaning Greens hold the balance of power in the Senate. Otherwise, the Coalition should attract the rural independents and win with the slimmest majority of 76-74.
    UNBELIEVABLE!

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  78. bchapman (649 comments) says:

    glubbster-
    Boothby and Brisbane are probably going to be as close as Hasluck. There are nearly 10,000 postals in each of those electorates, so there will be lot of water pass under the bridge before we know the final numbers.

    The three ex-National independents in coalition with Lib, Nat, LNP and WA LNP with a Green dominated senate- now thats a coalition

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  79. glubbster (345 comments) says:

    bchapman, yes, those seats are not quite done yet, but Labor have a lot to do to come back though. Whereas Hasluck has less than half their current majorities.

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  80. Hurf Durf (2,860 comments) says:

    Here comes the eco-terrorists. Hopefully the Security Services are treating them with the dedication they deserve.

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  81. tvb (3,937 comments) says:

    In my view Julia Gillard is in the best position to do a deal with the 3 ex Nats. She will drive a wedge with the other Nats by offering blatant political deal with the 3 dissidents and possibly with another one in Western Australia who is threatening trouble. She controls the Senate through the Greens. She will use the considerable tactical skill of the ALP heavy men to her advantage even if their strategic thinking is hopeless. I predict Julia Gillard will form the next Government leaving Tony Abbott with his shrill “we won the most primary votes” refrain on the sidelines. I am depressed about this but Julia has won day 1 and the momentum is with her.

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  82. glubbster (345 comments) says:

    Interesting tvb, you may be right, but:
    1) If the Libs hold Hasluck, they will be ahead 73-72.
    2) The Libs have won the primary vote.
    Abbott can argue these two factors give them the first chance to form the government.

    On the other hand, Gillard will argue its 73-73 (with the Greens) and that Labor won the 2-party preferred vote.
    She will also argue she controls the Senate (with her Labor leaning Green friends).

    Why cant Abbott offer as much of a deal? Surely they will milk Abbott for all he is worth using Gillard to up their offer before going with their natural ally? Do the rural independents really want to saddle up to the Labor/Greens? They might get through legislation quicker, but its a risky proposition!

    How did Julia win Day 1?? I would call it a dead heat.

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  83. bchapman (649 comments) says:

    glubbster
    Labor is 300 ahead in Boothby. In Brisbane they are 800 behind with 30% of the vote to be counted. They need to win 52% of the postals and Bevis has been the sitting member for donkeys. I’d rate them both 50/50 ATM.

    If Labor can win either of these 2 or hasluck (300 behind with a postals and the sitting member), there is no way Abbott can get to 76.

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  84. Manolo (12,614 comments) says:

    Gaia worshippers flexing their muscles across the Tasman. Australia is to suffer at the hands of these loonies.

    “Mr Oakeshott yesterday said climate change policy was a top priority from whomever formed government and pointed to the extra pressure which the enlarged Greens presence could wield. He said climate change was “one example of what we may be able to deliver for this country, which the last Parliament couldn’t do”.

    Meanwhile Adam Bandt, the victorious Green in the seat of Melbourne, yesterday said he would back a Gillard Labor government. “I made my position clear that were we in a situation where my vote is important, my view is that would be delivered by working with a Gillard Government and that is the view I still hold,” Dr Bandt said.”

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  85. glubbster (345 comments) says:

    bchapman, I am relying on these figures: http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/guide/boot.htm
    These figures show a 800 lead with 23% to count. Where are your figures, are they more updated?

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  86. bchapman (649 comments) says:

    Your figures are more up to date. Libs are counting on the incumbency factor with the postals.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-election/labor-leads-race-for-minority-government-20100822-13akb.html?autostart=1

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  87. glubbster (345 comments) says:

    http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-305.htm Hasluck: shows Libs ahead by 363 with only the following to go: “The remaining 15% of votes (including postal, absent, provisional and remaining pre-poll votes) cannot be counted until after polling day.” I would say this is still too close to call, but Libs have the edge.

    http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-182.htm Boothby the lead is 814, so I have no idea where you get your figure claimed. With only 9500 votes left (approx) and a sitting member in the lead, I cannot follow your 50/50 logic.

    http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-156.htm Brisbane the lead is 858 and again Libs have to be good favourites here.

    Just got your message above so if that changes your view, all good.

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  88. bchapman (649 comments) says:

    Thanks. Good place to follow it (and for a bit of partisan rancour) is-

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/

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  89. Tauhei Notts (1,508 comments) says:

    Betfair have it as close as a coin toss at the moment.

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