Kiwiblog

The ODT reports:

Labour Party members in the Dunedin North electorate have a rare chance on Saturday to select a new candidate to represent them at the general election next year.

Well, the members don’t get to select the candidate. They get two votes out of seven – and even then only if not outvoted by “affiliate members” who get trucked in by the bus load.

The union movement has targeted both Dunedin North and Manurewa as seats it wants a unionist to win, to increase the proportion of unionists in the Labour caucus. Phil Goff may not last long after 2011 – even if he wins!

Three candidates have put themselves forward to replace Mr Hodgson – current electorate committee chairman David Clark (37), former electorate chairman Simon Wilson (25) and uinionist New Zealand Nurses Organisation national adviser Glenda Alexander (55).

David Clark has a campaign website. He is Warden of Selwyn College (2rd best after Carrington and Knox). He has been an EMPU member since 2006. On the basis of his CV, looks quite good.

Glenda Alexander also has a campaign website. She has been a professional unionist for the last 20 years.

Simon Wilson is a former President of the compulsory Otago University Students’ Association.

So all three have a union background to some degree – but Alexander by far the most.

It will be interesting to see who wins – they will inevitable become an MP at the next election.

Hat Tip: Homepaddock

Wonders never cease. North Shore Mayor Andrew Williams has complained to the Police because he does not like what Cameron Slater says at public meetings. He has also asked the Returning Officer to remove Slater from the ballot, because it seems Cameron is mean to the poor Mayor.

Williams said Slater’s whole campaign was a form of the “stalking” he had endured for over a year.

“He stands up at a meeting and says ‘I will not urinate on a tree, I will not use a credit card in a Takapuna bar, I will not send drunken texts’.”

What makes the Mayor think they are references to him?

“What he has put in his candidate profile is harassment. His whole campaign is focussed on attacking me.”

Yes it is. Labour’s entire 2008 campaign was focussed on attacking John Key. But I don’t think John Key tried to get Helen Clark arrested or struck off the ballot.

Wiliams urged the electoral officer to strike off Slater as a candidate.

Nice to have a Mayor with such a fine regard for elections.

Police confirmed they had received a complaint against Slater but had undertaken not to make comment to the media.

Here are some good question to ask the Police.

1. How many times in the last month has Mayor Williams e-mailed the Police District Commander urging him to arrest Slater?
2. How many of these e-mails were sent after midnight?
3. How many micro-seconds did the Police spend deciding what to do?

I am a big fan of Sir Roger’s policies. I regard him as the second best finance minister New Zealand has had.

So it is with trepidation, I scrutinise the figures he uses in his brochure below.

I’ll even leave alone the wisdom of claiming a specific level of economic growth, on the basis of proposed policies. All I’ll say is if you are that good at predicting economic growth, you could make a lot of money on iPredict!

The figure I am interested in is the claim “The Tasman Wage Gap has already grown 29% under Key’s management”.

In September 2008, the gross average weekly earnings in NZ were at 85% of Australia’s. So you see a claim of the gap growing 29% and you think, hell we must now be 56% of Australia.

In fact the latest data has us 82.8% of Australia. Yes a decline of 2.2%, but not quite such a scary one is it.

Before I get to how Sir Roger got his 29% (a classic example of correct yet misleading), I’ll also point out that Sir Roger is only comparing before tax wage rates. As a proponent of lower taxes, I am surprised he does not compare after tax wages – because they would show that in face NZ has closed the gap.

But how did Sir Roger get his 29%? Well, I’m not sure. My best guess is he is referring to the relative change (as opposed to the absolute change). But even then it does not quite add up. The nominal gap in Sep 2008 was $133.70 and in Jun 2010 was $169.34 and the relative change is 26.6%.

But I regard talking about a relative change as a percentage is quite misleading. It may be technically accurate, but it is deceptive. Let me give two examples:

• Party A goes in the polls from 5% to 6% and they claim they have climbed 20% in the polls.
• The gap between A and B is 2% in 2008 and 3% in 2010 – you claim the gap has grown 50%. instead of claiming it has grown 1%.

If you look at the position of the arrows it clearly gives an impression of a massive increase in the gap – not a 2.2% change.

The pamphlet would be more defensible if it said that NZ has gone from 85% to 82.8% of Australia.

And the arrows should show both going up – NZ by 7.1% and Australia by 10.0%. Not one going down massively, and one going up massively.

Now I may have interpreted Sir Roger’s calculations incorrectly. I would be happy to have provided how he calculated the 29% – but I am pretty sure is is talking about relative change, rather than absolute change.

National should abolish DHB elections. They are a farce.

I just saw on Backbenches an MP admit they could not name a single candidate for the DHB. Most NZers woud be the same.

Elections required informed voting, and there just simply isn’t enough coverage of DHBs to inform NZers. People win purely on name recognition, or because they are a doctor, or they write a nice 200 word blurb.

I’m about as politically aware as anyone, and my DHB votes will be based on extremely flimsy grounds.

I think it is important to have community representation, but would do it via indirect elections.

In each DHB area, have an electoral college consisting of the local Mayors and Deputy Mayors. People can apply to them to be a community representative, they can get interviewed by the electoral college, and then choices are made.

NewstalkZB report:

MP Chris Carter evaded reporters camped outside his Parliamentary office yesterday in an unusual fashion, allegedly climbing out his office window

MP Chris Carter may have gone to unusual lengths to evade the media at Parliament yesterday.

Reporters spent most of yesterday camped outside his Parliamentary office seeking comment over his plans after he returned to work following two months sick leave.

Somehow and despite his office having only one door, Mr Carter managed to elude reporters and leave Parliament unseen.

Parliamentary sources say he climbed out his office window and found an alternative exit.

I wonder if he had a rope ladder also?

The Herald reports:

An American who travelled to New Zealand to spread the word of God – and whom Brian Tamaki called his “spiritual father” – has been accused of sexually assaulting young men.

Bishop Eddie Long is a well-known preacher in Atlanta who built one of America’s most widely known black megachurches, the New Birth Missionary Baptist Church.

The married father of four, who has strongly campaigned against same-sex marriage, is having to defend himself after he was accused of using jewellery, cars and money to lure three teenagers into sexual relationships.

You sometimes have to wonder – are there any campaigners against same sex marriage who aren’t gay?

An extraordinary blog post by David Cunliffe on Red Alert. Let’s take it one step at a time:

When this country is in recession and Kiwi families are doing it bloody tough, I cannot bear to stand by and see rich and powerful private interests – whom I will not name at this point

A classic Winston tactic. Refer to dark vile secret forces.

and this post is not about SCF – rorting the rules and using their clubs and networks to finesse processes.

Thank God it is not about SCF. David seems to have become the spokesperson for a small Timaru cult. The latest cult newsletter proclaims:

In the end though, the only way Michelle, Keiran and I can help you is if you help yourself, and help us help you. If we stay out here alone, we are targets.

I have always felt like asking the Chinese Government how they intend to shoot a billion people.  …

David Cunliffe just called me and we have a thing or two planned which will help, watch this space.

David said “tell the investors to speak with one voice, and throw everything you have at John Key and Bill English and Simon Power – full force, don’t hold back……let RIP!

Anyway back to his blog post:

It makes Godzone look like “the coldest banana republic in the world”.

I thought that was when we had a foreign minister who took out ful page ads campaigning against his own Government’s great foreign policy sucess – a FTA with China. Now that was banana republic.

For goodness sake interests associated with the Natural Dairy Crafar farms bid (potentially with Nat links) reportedly gave $200,000 to the National Party while the Natural Dairy application was still before the OIO and while National has a ministerial policy review underway.

I blogged these donations when they were disclosed. In fact I blogged them before the media reported them. The association with Natural Dairy is rather weak – the husband of the wife who made the donation is an advisor to the Chinese Business Roundtable, and the founder of that Roundtable is involved in Natural Dairy NZ.

I suspect most Chinese businesspeople in Auckland are involved in the Chinese business roundtable. It is a fairly tight community.

National should IMMEDIATELY reject that bid – otherwise what is left to separate this from complete corruption?  Brown envelopes?

Here Mr Cunliffe jumps off the deep end. The public will judge any decision by the Government when it is made, and thanks to transparency with donations can judge whether or not they think that was a factor.

But it is bonkers to be screaming that the Government must interfere with the OIO process and destroy the ability of the Crafar recevers to recover maximum value from the assets, because of a donation from a Chinese businesswoman who is not involved in the bid.

I have a much better example of corruption for David Cunliffe.  In fact it is made in the comments section of Red Alert:

Bill Liu gave a donation of $5,000 to the labour party. His citizenship application was supported by Dover Samuels, who was at that time a Minister. His citizenship ceremony was presided over by Labour ministers, who knew that immigration were unhappy with him being in NZ. None of this is news to you, yet you have the temerity to accuse National of awarding corrupt favours to its friends.

Yes Labour ignored the strong advice from officials not to grant Liu citizenship due to his multiple fake identities, yet they did.

You want another example of corruption – your caucus colleage Taito Field – whom you associate immigration minister did so many favours for,

Or another – how about accepting $100,000 three days before the election, and not declaring it until after the election. From the same source that donated to Winston, whom Labour voted had done nothing wrong and never knew about the Owen Glenn donation despite the telephone logs.

Was it OK for the OIO-overseeing Minister of Finance to lease his (trust’s) house to the govt for a staggering ministerial rent

No, and the money was paid back. But what has that got to do with the OIO.

or accept hours of free TV for his “Plain English” ads?  Isn’t it time we Kiwis stood up and demanded that the tories do sweat the small stuff like the rest of us?  Isn’t it time John key held SOMEONE to account for SOMETHING rather than smile, wave and make excuses?

Now he is in full rant mode.

Beyond political donations, look at the ability of the rich and powerful to get their way while the poor and middle struggle: $2 billion a year of tax avoidance through LAQCs and trusts that National in government has refused to touch.

So the Government is corrupt as it did not abolish LAQCs. So does this mean the last Labour Government was also corrupt. Or that Labour’s policy is now to abolish LAQC’s?

Or it is just more part of a bizarre rant?

And he also rails against trusts. Well now we get to the hypocrisy. He suggests National is corrupt for not somehow stopping the use of trusts to avoid tax. So what does the Register of MPs Pecuniary Interests say for Cunliffe:

The Bozzie Family Trust (discretionary trust)

The hypocrisy is amazing.

Half the top 100 welathiest NZers are still not on the top tax rate!

Yes – and this happened under Labour!This is what happens when teh trust and top personal tax rates are not aligned – something that National has now fixed.

Well what is the point of getting our savings rate up (and asking hard working families to go without consumtion) if the investment vehicles we need to get the money to our struggling firms are being milked and siphoned by fees and sweet deals to the cronies in the markets?  Why would any sane Kiwi sweat 80 hours a week to build a real business here?  Where will our kids choose to live?

So no Kiwis will work 80 hour weeks because of the cronies in the markets? I’m sorry, but even I can’t follow his chain of thought any more. It seems to be just one big primal scream

It will only get worse until we have a Govt with the guts to stand up to it.   The smiling millionaire from Bankers Trust is hardly likely to do that!

Oh I see. It is all John Key’s fault.

Vodafone have dropped their mobile data roaming rate in Australia to $5/MB from $10/MB.

This is obviously a step in the right direction, but for me the price point is still too high.

Vodafone has had a temporary rate of $2/MB over the last two months for Australia. That was set at an affordable level so during my 8 days in Australia I kept data turned on and Vodafone made around $50 from me – did around 3 MB/day.

In July/August I spent a month in Europe. As data roaming cost so much I turned it on as little as possible, and used only 3 MB over four weeks. I just used local wireless networks instead.

So $5/MB, while cheaper than Telecom, still has a long way to go.

Most of the photos I take are actually macros, but the subjects are typically a lot less popular than the vertebrates. Hopefully, the chap below isn’t seen as very threatening.

One of the more fascinating aspects of NZ ecosystems, is that our native fly species do a lot of the pollinating. There’s a bit of a gap in our native bee lineup.

This very small creature you might see flitting around your gardens from time to time

As always, clicking the image will bring up a larger version.

On to my second double espresso already…hope everyone has a good Friday.

Roger Kerr blogs:

It was with deep sadness that I learned of the sudden death of Graeme Hunt today. Graeme was a widely-respected author, historian and journalist, and a tireless campaigner for electoral reform in New Zealand.

He was also standing as an independent candidate for the Albany ward of the new Auckland Council and was reportedly leading in the polls.

Graeme was passionate about New Zealand history and one of our foremost business historians. He was a walking encyclopaedia who, while chatting, could go into extraordinary detail about a huge variety of topics including long-forgotten people, places, organisations and issues. …

Graeme was an award-winning journalist and former editor-at-large of the National Business Review. The NBR reported his death this morning.

I’ve lost a good friend and a much respected colleague, and New Zealand has lost one of its most talented and public-spirited journalists.

My sincere condolences go to his wife Saluma and his son Robert and daughter Ellen.

As do my condolences.

The Government has announced:

At New Zealand Post, Hon Michael Cullen has been appointed chair from November 1.

Thanks National. Words are inadequate to describe how I feel. The closest sensation it reminds me of is a colonoscopy.

Cullen replaces Jim Bolger, so at least it means there won’t be any change in policy!

The Herald reports:

Former MP Brian Neeson and pharmacy owner Warren Flaunty are each standing for election to five local authorities, heading a bigger than usual field of candidates who have put their hands up for three or more Super City roles.

Both men say they can cope with the workload if they are successful in several of those bodies.

But it is the possibility of both of them serving on two local boards of the Auckland Council that has raised rivals’ eyebrows.

Mr Neeson, an MP from 1990 to 2002, is nominated for the council’s Albany Ward as well as the Rodney Local Board and the Upper Harbour Local Board.

If he was elected to the council, he said, he would drop the boards.

But there is also the possibility of him being elected to the Waitemata District Health Board and the Waitakere Licensing Trust.

So Brian wants to be a quintuple dipper. Actually it is worse than that. Simon Power, in a moment of insanity, also appointed him to the Human Rights Review Tribunal, he is trying to be a sextuple dipper.

I would change the law for local body elections, so that candidates can stand for one office only. You can stand for either the City Council or the DHB – not both. You can stand for Council or a board – not both. Also – you can stand for Mayor or Council – not both.

90% of local body elections is name recognition, and your skill at writing a 200 word blurb. People stand for multiple roles to increase their name recognition. Works well for them – doesn’t work well at getting people dedicated to the one role.

The Herald reports:

He declined to be interviewed yesterday, but said in text messages that he still considered himself a Labour MP.

Another story reports that he considers himself to be in dispute only with Phil Goff, not with Labour.

He is the only nominee for the Labour ticket for Te Atatu for the next election, but nominations are open until October 8.

Only 15 days to go.

It is understood there is some pressure from local Labour members and constituents for him to stay on as the Labour nomination.

Mr Goff said that Mr Carter appeared to have recovered as he was back in Parliament, and he should now front up to the council to defend his case if he wanted to stay in the party.

I will make a rare prediction. I do not believe the Labour Party Council will expel Chris Carter as a member. Why? Helen has told them not to, and it is still her party.

Helen has let it be known that Labour is Chris’ life, and it would be cruel to expel him when he has spent his life working for Labour.

What is most likely to happen is Carter will be suspended – probably for 18 months, or maybe indefinitely. And after the 2011 election the suspension will be lifted.

That will be a massive slap in the face for Goff.

The ODT profiles presumptive new ACT MP Hilary Calvert:

“Back in the day, I trained in couple counselling. Who knows, that might be very helpful,” Ms Calvert said yesterday.

Heh.

Radio NZ reports:

Labour leader Phil Goff says the Maori Party needs to start listening to Maori voters and put a future coalition with Labour back on the table.

He told Waatea News that the meltdown of ACT and improving polling among other opposition parties means the next Government could well be a coalition of Labour, the Greens and New Zealand First.

Mr Goff said the Maori Party needed to face up to the fact National “hasn’t delivered for Maori”.

He also said the majority of Maori voters gave their party vote to Labour last election.

Firstly I note how Labour are openly talking up NZ First. They campaign on transparency in electoral laws, yet say they believe WInston didn’t know about the Owen Glenn donations. Ha.

Anyway, don’t you like the arrogance of demanding the Maori Party must support them, as most Maori gave Labour their party vote.

Goff has had Mallard and Jones spend most of the last two years attacking the Maori Party, and finally it has clicked he will need them to have a chance to form a Government.  What a stroke of genius.

The Herald reports:

Four of the nine people standing for four seats in the Otara-Papatoetoe subdivision are Indian – Labour candidates Daljit Singh and Sukhdev Singh Hundal, and Citizens and Ratepayers candidates Avtar Hans and Narinder Kumar Singla.

Mr Gutry said candidates and campaign staff would be contacted as part of the inquiry. Yesterday, none of the four Indian candidates said they had been contacted by the police.

Daljit Singh yesterday said he knew of people who believed that because there was one Super City, they could vote anywhere.

People who may have unintentionally enrolled were being told to correct the matter with the Electoral Enrolment Centre, he said.

Unintentionally enrolled? Is this what it is about? Let us see what TV3 report:

Manjit Kaur and her husband Avtar have been living in Pukekohe for 10 years, so imagine their surprise when police turned up asking why she’d enrolled in the South Auckland suburb of Papatoetoe.

“We never lived at that address, and that handwriting was not belonging to us, ’cause we had not filled that form,” says Mr Kaur.

Ms Kaur signs her name in English, yet the police had a form with her date of birth and a signature in Punjabi.

Now this makes the alleged crimes even more serious. It is one thing to tell people to enrol at an address they don’t live at. That is bad enough. But to actually forge their signature on an enrolment form and re-enrol them against their wishes is even more serious.

Quite a mystery over who could have done this.

“We’ve executed a number of search warrants within the Papatoetoe area, residential and commercial properties,” says Det Insp Mark Gutry.

One of the properties searched was the real estate office where Labour candidate Daljit Singh works. He said today police had not contacted him.

“What we’re doing at present is investigating the enrolments,” says Mr Gutry. “As part of that process we are going to end up speaking to candidates right throughout the Papatoetoe area.”

Another address visited was Indo Spice World, where coincidentally today a support vehicle for Mr Singh was parked at his office next door.

What an absolute coincidence.

A couple of media outlets have reported this poll from Horizonpoll:

National has an 8% lead over Labour in the latest HorizonPoll voting intentions survey covering 3,673 New Zealanders.

National has 30% of decided voters (3% down on its 2008 share of all registered voters).

Labour has 22% (3% down on its 2008 share of all registered voters).

Even before one looks at what type of poll this is, warning bells should emerge over one claiming National has only 30% of “decided” voters when every other poll has them around 50%.

Also when they compare the percentage of “decided” voters to the percentage of “registered” voters. This would only be useful if there was 100% turnout.

But the big reason why the media should not report this as a poll, is it is not a phone poll, but an Internet panel survey.

At some stage I will do a fuller post on the pros and cons of Internet panels. In some circumstances they can be very useful – especially when surveying the opinions of a discrete group.

But generally they are unreliable when it comes to being a fair sample of all New Zealanders. Because they are only representing those NZers who have joined that online panel. And even with weighting, this does not mean it is representative. A weighted sample can still be unrepresentative.

Over time they will become more useful, as panels become larger. But in my opinion you need really really large panels. The only political poll I currently trust which is done through online panels is You Gov in the UK. They have a fine record of accuracy. Their large panels, means that every poll they do is not the same 3,000 or so people responding to it.

As I said, online panels do have some valid uses. And it is inevitable they will become more dominant over time, as the challenges for phone polling increase.

But my view is that at this stage in NZ, they are not a reliable indicator of New Zealand public opinion. I have seen many online panel polls like the above, which produce results massively different from those produced by phone polls. Normally I ignore them, but as some media reported this one, I thought it is worth making the point.

It would be useful if media did not report online panel polls just as “polls”, but always make it clear it is a “Internet panel survey”.

Not bad this week. Quiz is here. 10 out of 10 and in 24 seconds.

The person who writes the quiz obviously has a fascination with Muldoon trivia. Luckily – so do I

The Dom Post reports:

Chris Carter is due back at Parliament today as his sick leave runs out.

The Te Atatu MP refused to say this week if he was returning. And Labour, his former party, did not know whether he would show up.

Mr Carter took two months off after a clumsy attempt to topple party leader Phil Goff in July, saying he was “stressed”. He was later dumped from the caucus and is now an independent MP.

I hope Chris has recovered from whatever condition it was that necessitated two months sick leave.

Hopefully he has seen specialists to ensure it is not contagious.

The Police announce:

A number of search warrants have been executed on residential and business addresses in Auckland’s Papatoetoe ward over the last two days as part of the police inquiry into electoral roll enrolment irregularities.

Detective Inspector Mark Gutry, crime manager, Counties Manukau Police, said the search warrants were executed at “properties of interest” to the inquiry which follows a complaint from the Electoral Enrolment Centre.

Up to 40 officers are involved in this latest phase of the inquiry.  People at the addresses or associated with them have been very helpful.   Candidates and campaign staff will also be contacted for information as part of the inquiry.

The Registrar of Electors last week removed 306 enrolments after establishing that people did not live at addresses stated on enrolment forms.

“Police are very aware of the electorate interest in this inquiry and we are working to complete it as thoroughly and quickly as possible,” Detective Inspector Gutry said.

“It’s too early to say what the outcome of our investigation will be.  Elections and the right to vote are part of New Zealand’s democratic process.  If people do have concerns about irregularities in the Papatoetoe ward then it’s important they have the confidence to speak up and get in touch with us.”

Well done NZ Police. 40 officers is a very serious commitment. Hopefully they will get a result quickly, as this could affect the election. If a candidate (or party) is found to be involved, then people should know this before they vote.

The Herald reports:

Discredited MP David Garrett will reportedly resign his seat in Parliament tomorrow, after last week quitting the Act Party over revelations he acquired a passport in 1984 using a dead child’s identity.

Mr Garrett – a list MP – in recent days has indicated that he won’t stay on as an independent MP but is yet to formally announce his decision.

However Radio New Zealand, which Mr Garrett used to announce his resignation from ACT, is reporting that he will now step down altogether.

I’ve been saying all along that I was sure David would resign from Parliament, once he quit ACT.

I’m in Auckland this afternoon, and going to an Albany Meet the Candidates Meeting. With Williams and Whale both invited to speak, it should be great fun. Come along, if you are free.

It starts at 5 pm in the Dove Theatre at Kristin School (cnr of Rosedale Road and 360 Albany Highway), Albany.

The meeting will hear from mayoral candidates, Albany ward candidates and Upper Harbour board candidates.

Mayor Williams has been talking it up on my Facebook page:

Well, well, well. What happened to Cameron Slater tonight at the Albany Candidates meeting at Paremoremo village? He was a no show. Didn’t turn up. Maybe being that close to a prison was a bit too scarey for Slater, being a convicted criminal as he is now. Or perhaps his WINZ benefit doesn’t stretch as far as petrol al…l the way from Howick to Paremoremo. Maybe he’ll have enough money for petrol to come to Albany tomorrow night. But then again???

Actually the answer quite simply was that Cameron wasn’t invited to speak at the Paremoremo meeting.

Incidentally I checked the timing, and looks like the Facebook post was made just after midnight – the traditional time for e-mails and texts from the Mayor – and now Facebook posts.