Quinn talking up Mana
September 30th, 2010 at 4:02 pm by David FarrarPhil Quinn blogs on why he thinks National will win Mana. On this occasion I can’t agree with him, as he overlook some key facts – and history. His arguments are:
- Given the absence of Winnie Laban on the ballot, the party vote from the last election is the best indication of the respective standings of Labour and National in Mana;
- And that the party vote margin favours Labour by only 2,500 votes or so;
- And that the National Party candidate is a Mana-based list MP who carries an element of incumbency;
- And that the PM is riding a wave of popularity, buoyed by a post-quake glow;
- And that the turnout in a by-election will be lower than a General Election by many thousands;
- And that low turnout is traditionally very bad news for Labour…
In effect he makes three arguments – that Mana without Laban is a marginal seat, that Hekia and the PM will attract votes, and that the turnout for theby-election will be low and bad for Labour.
Let’s take these one by one. Mana without Laban is not a marginal seat. This seat has never ever been held by National. It has been Labour since at least World War II.
Winnie is a nice competent MP who certainly did not lose Labour any votes. But she was not one of those “star” local MPs who attracts massive cross-party support like Nick Smith does, and Harry Duynhoven did. Her results are not much greater than Graeme Kelly achieved. In 1999 Kelly won the seat by 5,475 for example. In 2008 Laban only got 8.6% of National voters.
Yes Hekia is a strong candidate, and has profile as a List MP. However she is a List MP, and no List MP has won a by-election. People don’t like the thought that if they vote for the List MP, then it results in someone else (the next candidate on the party list) entering Parliament.
Yes the PM is popular. But this is a seat never lost by Labour, and there is no way they will evict Labour just because the PM handled the Christchurch earthquake well.
Finally turnout is normally lower, but this tends to work against the Government. Their supporters are not motivated to vote just so the Govt gets one more seat they don’t need. But Oppositions are highly motivated to retain a seat or bloody the Government.
Finally you should remember this – in scores and scores of by-elections held in the last 80 years, not once has a Government won a seat in a by-election off an Opposition. Not once.
The combination of it being a seat that Labur has never not held, and no Government in history having ever won any seat off an Opposition, I feel very safe in my conclusion that the seat is not marginal, or even much of a contest.
Related posts:
- National opens Mana nominations
- Goff lowering expectations for Mana
- Phil Quinn on Mana and Faafoi
- The Mana result
September 30th, 2010 at 4:16 pm
DPF,
To avoid to and fro argument about past statistics vs future possibilities, let’s look at this from a slightly different perspective.
I think this is National’s best chance in living memory of winning this particular seat. And for the reasons you highlighted above.
There is another though. Stemming from the question of why the Labour majority shrink in this electorate in the last electorate, surely the continued poor perception of Labour’s performance will be reflected in the by-election results?
True, the only real victory is to win the seat. If Labour do hold it and your statistics remain unbowed and undefeated, but the margin is cut to say 1,200 or lower, that will reflect a ringing lack of endorsement in the Labour party and leadership, while also reflecting a broader positive view on National.
[The opinions of those who choose not to vote do not count, so what they think is irrelevant - the only true majority is the majority of those that get off their chuffs and cast a vote.]
The end result – assuming Labour retain Mana – is that National will still be able to claim enhanced support and Labour will look like total prats if they try to claim some sort of mandate from the people. (Also National’s govt majority is not affected a whit.)
Of course there is also the possibility that the statistics of the past get relegated to the dustbin of history…
Vote:September 30th, 2010 at 4:24 pm
Paul Quinn was a very good rugby player but is actually thick as mince. He was a failed candidate for Wellington Central and then stood in a high list position in Hutt South. He was promoted over white middle class males with far more talent to suit the needs of diversity in the Party list. He has the rapier wit and brains of an ice cream sword.
Vote:September 30th, 2010 at 4:31 pm
Don’t think the National Party pro’s will be counting on Parata winning the vote.
Vote:Traditionally one of the Wellington regions strongest Labour seats, real jungle country.
Any person thinking National winning that just go back to Mt Albert where the territory was slightly better. We may have a better candidate. Even John Key himself wouldn’t win the seat.
Governments generally don’t win by-elections. Not unless the opposition have split thirty ways.
Keeping the vote down and seeing Labours majority falling would be a good sign. For Phil Goff, every day is another referendum on his leadership.
I think any person with political nous would not see National winning. The Greens no, too low income and not enough latte drinking sophisticates.
September 30th, 2010 at 4:38 pm
DPF, excellent assessment. The other possible factor, albeit somewhat peripheral, is ‘two for the price of one’. Mana already has Hekia. They can have Kris too.
Vote:September 30th, 2010 at 4:41 pm
A very good assessment of Paul Quinn there Fisiani…
Just one slight problem, the piece DPF quotes is written by Phil Quinn.
Vote:September 30th, 2010 at 4:42 pm
@Tom Gould – how about one for the price of none?
Hekia could promise to not resign as a list MP if elected. Then she would simply transfer to being an electorate MP without bringing in Conway Powell. Mana would have an MP, but National would continue with the same overall number of MPs as before (+1 electorate MP, -1 list MP), and Labour would be down one.
Vote:September 30th, 2010 at 4:45 pm
It’s a shame (for our democracy) that neither Quinn or Farrar give any consideration to who might be
Vote:the best candidate for the electorate.
September 30th, 2010 at 4:49 pm
Pete – that’s up to the people of Mana.
Vote:September 30th, 2010 at 4:56 pm
Graeme, is that possible? Can a list MP remain a list MP if they also win an electorate seat in a by election? If so, would they get two salaries?
Vote:September 30th, 2010 at 5:00 pm
Tom,
That would depend on whether or not she is Progressive enough, because it is the progressive systems which progressivley rip others off
Vote:September 30th, 2010 at 5:04 pm
Tom – all MPs are MPs – Hekia Parata is currently an MP who happens to be an MP because she was on a party list, she’d just change to someone who was an MP who happened to win a by-election.
Someone who is an MP gets a salary. No MP gets two salaries. There are provisions in the Electoral Act which deals with what happens if an MP who is an MP because he or she was on a list resigns (i.e. they are replaced), if he or she doesn’t resign (or die or whatever) they aren’t replaced. Everyone assumes that a list MP would resign as a list MP after the polling day, but before the official announcement of the result, but it hasn’t happened before, and it certainly isn’t a requirement. If Hekia didn’t write to the Speaker to resign there would be no basis for a new MP to be declared elected.
Vote:September 30th, 2010 at 6:22 pm
Dont be so defeatest DPF, the Nats should go all out if they win it would be huge boost for them and be the final nail in the coffin for the labour (union) party of achieving anything for the next two terms.
[DPF: I agree the Nats should go all out and try to win it, and I'll spend a but of time helping Hekia. However I don't want anyone thinking that a win for National is anything but a remote long-shot]
Vote:September 30th, 2010 at 6:30 pm
Laban was such a stellar MP that without her, Labour face losing the safest of all safe seats (as DPF says, it’s never been National)?
Whatever Quinn was on when he thought that one up, I’ll have some of it.
Vote:September 30th, 2010 at 6:30 pm
You are correct DPF, a minor miracle would be required for National to win this seat.
I’d love to know what percentage of voters in this electorate are beneficiaries. It would have to be between 55-65%. None of them will ever vote National.
Vote:September 30th, 2010 at 7:32 pm
Actuallly in 2006 84.5% of adults were not receiving a benefit.
Vote:September 30th, 2010 at 7:37 pm
Gwilly
Clearly you don’t know the electorate. It has the average income way up there with the best. Two cities actually. One south of the Police college and one north.
The one north is well coined and that is the one growing.
Hard to see a blue win but could see a reduced margin for Goff and his cohorts.
By the way the local PI communty are pissed about the Liarbour man being forced on them without any discussion. Could see very few PI’s actually voting which will only help the blue.
Liarbour are treating the PI community as fools and believe they are in this case far from that description.
Vote:September 30th, 2010 at 7:48 pm
May be it will be closer than we think. Do you have any figures for 2008?
Vote:September 30th, 2010 at 8:05 pm
Don’t have the income numbers but with the number of new houses and above average punters moving in would suggest the $ have lifted.
Take Aotea which has a few hundred few homes. I bet a buck or two these voters are mostly blue and on well above the average income.
This city is fast becoming very well coined and over the past 3 years increasing business growth by somewhere near 3% per year when the NZ average is about half that or so I am lead to understand.
I just look forward to seeing the resulting trends after the votes come in.
Vote:September 30th, 2010 at 8:06 pm
2008 Mana
Candidates
COLLINS, Mike ACT 628
GILCHRIST, Michael GP 2,288
GOODE, Richard LIB 64
GUNSTON, Robin UFNZ 472
LABAN, Winnie LAB 18,070
MACLACHLAN, Renton KIWI 337
MANU, Tim Salele’a NZPP 282
NPARATA, Hekia NAT 11,915
Candidate Informals 277
TOTAL 34,333
ACT New Zealand 819
Vote:Green Party 2,903
Libertarianz 17
United Future 458
Labour Party 15,209
Kiwi Party 206
New Zealand Pacific Party 189
National Party 12,701
Alliance 17
Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 133
Democrats for Social Credit 5
Family Party 85
Jim Anderton’s Progressive 274
Mäori Party 356
New Zealand First Party 1,029
RAM – Residents Action Movement 5
The Bill and Ben Party 213
The Republic of New Zealand Party 2
Workers Party 15
Party Informals 123
TOTAL 34,759
September 30th, 2010 at 8:12 pm
Ah, must apologise. Read the 2500 vote gap as an electorate vote gap, not party vote gap.
Have to agree wth DPF (and Neil) on this. A gap of around 6100 in electorate MP votes has got to be unbridgeable, even with Labour troughing [in more ways than one] in the polls.
As to the vote trend though, even if National can cut it to 4000 or less, it removes any Labour claim of a people’s mandate and will show antipathy towards Labour growing.
I should have known better…
(And now to write out 50 times: I must research the facts first, I must research the facts first, bugger, bugger, bugger)
Vote:October 1st, 2010 at 12:24 am
DPF, nice retort, and clever. I never claimed Mana was a “marginal seat”; your words, not mine. I simple believe that 2,500 is nothing like the fortress many, including you, seem to think it is. Winnie is certainly no superstar of the Duynhoven mould, but are you suggesting there is no fat in the margin, especially considering the circumstances of her health prior to the last election? So I maintain that Winnie’s margin is a meaningless guide and that the party vote is a far better reflection of the seat’s actual political make-up. I simply have to disagree with your view that the prevailing political winds, which we both agree strongly favour National, cannot withstand historical precedent. Nor do I think the interesting but minor fact that no list MP has won a by-election has much bearing. Finally, on the question of turnout: if a low turnout in Mana favours Labour this means that fewer voters in Cannons Creek, Waitangirua and Elsdon stay home than residents of Whitby, Plimmerton and Pukerua Bay. It would be bold to say the least to make such a prediction. I think the opposite will happen. I am more than happy to be wrong. I hoped I would never live long enough to see a National MP for Mana.
Vote:October 1st, 2010 at 5:05 am
I thought National could have won Mt Albert if they campaigned well and Labour campaigned badly. Unfortunately the opposite was true.
I think Labour would have to campaign really REALLY badly to lose Mana, and even then the candidate would probably have to be exposed as a serial rapist or something. National no longer have the momentum that they enjoyed just before the Mt Albert campaign. Perhaps if this byelection had been held at the same time I would find Paul Quinn’s confidence more credible.
Vote:October 1st, 2010 at 9:28 am
It would be interesting to see whether other parties contest this seat.
and “Gwilly I’d love to know what percentage of voters in this electorate are beneficiaries. It would have to be between 55-65%. None of them will ever vote National.”
Do your homework-some of the wealthiest people in the Wellington region live in the area. There is nothing unusual about the electorate compared to any other electorate when it comest to the percentage of beneficiaries.
Vote:October 1st, 2010 at 9:39 am
Does any one else think a party vote for the Mäori Party of just 356 in Mana is a bit weird??
Vote:( Fisiani I made the same Quinn mistake also…)
October 1st, 2010 at 9:46 am
It is not CONFIDENCE. I want Labour to win!
Vote:October 1st, 2010 at 9:57 am
Not really:
- people more inclined to vote Maori are on the Maori roll
- Maori candidate votes are far higher than Maori party votes eg
Mäori Party 6,076 TURIA, Tariana MAOR 13,406
Mäori Party 5,801 SHARPLES, Pita MAOR 12,876
The overhang in parliamentary seats is a reflection of this disparity.
Many Maori voters know that they benefit from getting Maori electorate seats but boosting the Labour party vote.
http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2008/electorateindex.html
Vote:October 1st, 2010 at 10:18 am
cheers Mr george – good points, but I still kinda think less than 400 in mana is pretty low, even being a general seat. on an unrelated note, what a glorious Friday morning it is here in wellington…
Vote: