Celia favoured to win
October 11th, 2010 at 1:00 pm by David FarrarThe Dom Post reports:
Kerry Prendergast’s tenuous hold on the Wellington mayoralty is likely to be undone by a wave of Green special votes, analysts predict.
Her political future hangs on a knife edge, with 40 votes separating her from rival Celia Wade-Brown and more than 900 special votes still to be counted.
Special votes, which have historically favoured left-wing challengers, could lead to victory for Green Party member Ms Wade-Brown. ….
Ms Wade-Brown said she had reviewed figures from the last election, which showed that, of the 800 valid special votes, 265 went to Ms Prendergast while 409 went to the second and third-placed candidates.
I’m glad I managed to squeak my vote in at 11.53 am on Saturday, as if Kerry lost by one vote I’d be very upset.
I agree that Celia is favoured to win on the specials. Graeme Edgeler pointed out that in 2007 Kerry got 12% fewer first preferences in the specials, than amongst ordinary votes.
Celia needs to win 52% of the specials to become Mayor. In this context “win” means be ranked higher than Kerry.
Wellington has not had a National MP elected since 1993. Despite that it has had centre-right Mayors for the last 15 years. But STV has made it even harder as all the votes against you tend to accumulate. I will be interested to see the vote iterations when they are published.
October 11th, 2010 at 1:08 pm
I’ve never voted for Kerry as in 1997 when I moved to Wellington she was one of the drivers for the wall in the waterfront amongst others. She didn’t have the good grace (with the other) to resign after the very public outcry and I don’t reward that type lack of integrity.
Vote:October 11th, 2010 at 1:11 pm
This would be a disaster for Wellington, twenty years hard work shrugging off the old image as the boring home of civil servants would be lost.
Wade-Brown will destroy the city within twelve months.
Vote:October 11th, 2010 at 1:13 pm
What is the background to Wellington having STV voting for mayor and Auckland not?
[DPF: The Council voted to have a referendum to change, and most voted yes]
Vote:October 11th, 2010 at 1:17 pm
I would suggest the good folk of Wgtn get their arses down to the Bike Wharehouse and or Trentham to get some good early deals on Wgtns soon to be favoured mode of transport
Vote:October 11th, 2010 at 1:17 pm
Kerry did sweet F.A for Wellington.
She rode on the back of the successes of Blumsky pulling Wellington into what it is today.
Whoever wins, crap result.
Vote:October 11th, 2010 at 1:19 pm
The further away people are from having to actually live with the consequences of their vote the more extreme their voting. This is why special votes always favor the extreme left.
Vote:October 11th, 2010 at 1:34 pm
Auckland is a special case, because of the Royal Commission and super city legislation, but a number of years ago a law was passed which enabled local authorities to choose between STV and FPP (block vote). The Council itself can make the decision, or the council can decide to hold a binding referendum, or 5% of eligible voters can force a referendum (which some have done, for example, when the council made a decision themselves that they disagreed with).
When this first happened, WCC decided to hold a referendum, which STV won; it held a second referendum last year (after two STV elections) which STV also won.
Other councils can do the same. In 2010, Dunedin City Council, Kaipara District Council, Kapiti Coast District Council, Marlborough District Council, Porirua City Council and Wellington City Council used STV.
The same process can be used to have Maori electorates at local government level, but no-one has so far (Rotorua’s Maori electorates were created by special legislation before the general legislation – which borrowed from the special legislation – was in place).
Vote:October 11th, 2010 at 1:39 pm
Auckland is stuck with FPP by statutory requirement until after the 2013 election (thanks to Rodney Hide), although I am optimistic that there might be the numbers on the Auckland Council to promote a Bill to amend this and some of the other anti-democratic aspects of the supercity legislation.
Vote:October 11th, 2010 at 1:50 pm
In your world toad you think 20% is a majority.
Vote:October 11th, 2010 at 1:57 pm
Rubbish, Murray. That’s why I support STV. Under FPP a candidate can get elected with as little as 20% of the vote. Under STV every successful candidate must have majority support after reallocation of the preferences of those who are unsuccessful to be elected.
Vote:October 11th, 2010 at 2:02 pm
I cannot stand Kerry – Like all politicians she has stayed too long and has become too arrogant and too Political – changing rules almost on a whim. I would love to have got rid of her BUT i ended up voting for her because of a lack of good right wing mayors who could step up to the Mark (Jack Yan was second choice but had limited chance)
A greenie will fuck wellington over.
Vote:October 11th, 2010 at 2:05 pm
Yeah, Toad, Its a bit ironic that under current legislation Aucklanders cant even decide for themselves what voting system they want to use, yet they are permitted – even encouraged – to contribute to a decision as to what voting system central govt uses.
Vote:October 11th, 2010 at 2:22 pm
What a stuff up! Even after TV One reported Prendergast was ahead by only 40 votes, she was still had a 97% chance of winning on ipredict. I should have shorted that one!
Vote:October 11th, 2010 at 2:29 pm
The only way to deal with the Greens is to remember that everything they say is a lie.
Vote:October 11th, 2010 at 2:36 pm
Those hideous Soho apartments was enough to sway me not to vote for Kerry. How did they get WCC grant consent on such a monstrosity?
Vote:October 11th, 2010 at 3:49 pm
in philu in jail again?? eh
Vote:October 11th, 2010 at 3:54 pm
@Toad,
“Under STV every successful candidate must have majority support after reallocation of the preferences of those who are unsuccessful to be elected.”
Do you realise just how completely contradictory that statement is?
STV does provide a majority vote. It simply less “I dislike this one and this one a bit less than that one and that one.” That is not a majority or a mandate – its just reflects slightly less loathing.
And before I am accused of being a forward-to-the-past type, I do support PR over FPP. I call “bullshit” on the notion that STV represents a genuine majority however.
Vote:October 11th, 2010 at 4:16 pm
^^^ Edit: Obviously i meant STV does NOT provide a majority vote. It simply says “I dilike this one and this one a bit less than that one and that one”
Vote:October 11th, 2010 at 4:36 pm
If Celia Wade Brown wins it in the end Council is going to be an interesting place for a while. Wellington Council has been horendously factionalised and this one does not look like it is going to be much different.
Vote:October 11th, 2010 at 7:57 pm
>>Auckland is stuck with FPP by statutory requirement until after the 2013 election (thanks to Rodney Hide), although I am optimistic that there might be the numbers on the Auckland Council to promote a Bill to amend this and some of the other anti-democratic aspects of the supercity legislation.
Ummmmm Toad hello.
Vote:You leftards were the ones that campaigned against the at large seats.
Remember, only rich white men from Remuera would get elected, what a racist load of bullshit that turned out to be.
October 11th, 2010 at 8:18 pm
If the unthinkable does happen and this communist is “elected” as the Mayor of Wellington we will at least be able to enjoy the fact that the long awaited Transmission gully road will be started under her “leadership”.
Vote:October 11th, 2010 at 8:51 pm
I saw her on TV toasting with other Green party members the sight of Keith Locke was a real turn off. They say that the Greens are a “broad church” but it is hard to reconcile a normal sort of individual concerned with urban design etc with a political party which makes its members commit to the indigenous version of the treaty of Waitangi and takes the most radical stance on the foreshore and seabed. If she is as nutty as the bulk of them (judging by the ranking of Catherine Delahunty for one) this is gross misrepresentation.
Vote:October 11th, 2010 at 9:00 pm
The standard fare on the Green blog would make you think that the Green Party:
“is an activist organisation of anti-capitalist workers and students. We are involved in the union movement as activists, delegates, and organisers. We have been at the forefront of the radical environmental movement, anti-war campaigns and solidarity struggles with people fighting imperialism and dictatorship from Palestine to Burma. We support Tino Rangatiratanga and oppose all forms of oppression such as racism and sexism.
We believe that struggles for justice and liberation should be guided by an anti-capitalist vision of the future. We fight for socialism from below. ”
Vote:http://socialistaotearoa.blogspot.com
October 12th, 2010 at 5:20 pm
I can’t believe I missed the local election.
Vote:I can’t believe the fact I missed my vote is actually going to matter.
I can’t believe other Wellingtonians would be so stupid.
A GREENIE… for crying out loud… a GREENIE!!!