Trevor on local body results

October 11th, 2010 at 3:00 pm by David Farrar

Trevor Mallard blogged that Cabinet won’t be a happy place due to:

  1. Labour Party Mayor of the Supercity with a clear centre left majority. Key’s nightmare.
  2. National Mayor of Hamilton given the boot. Martin Gallagher top polling for council.
  3. Harry Duynhoven Mayor of New Plymouth
  4. Laws team routed in Whanganui with a left leaning Mayor.
  5. Act Mayor of Hutt City given the boot.
  6. Prendergast National Mayor of Wellington ahead by 40 with 1,000 specials to count. Her Wellington supermayorlty dreams in tatters.
  7. Tony Ryall’s bette noir Richard Thompson tops the poll for Dunedin City.
  8. One of Wellington’s best analysts David Choat got elected to the DHB.

Now Trevor is right that overall those on the left had far more to cheer about, and overall it was good for them. However I think he pushes things too far to suggest that this is some massive rejection of National. I thought I would do a more nuanced analysis of the results than Trevor’s shotgun blast.

Labour Party Mayor of the Supercity with a clear centre left majority. Key’s nightmare

The result in Auckland is a very good win for the left. It will eneregise their activist base, and also provide profile for some of their office holders. And the get out the vote machine in South Auckland should concern National, if they can repeat it for 2011.

However this does not mean Auckland has turned on National. Many National supporters did not vote for Banks or C&R for various reasons. This was primarily about local perthe sonalities and tickets.

And there may be a silver lining for National. A Banks and C&R controlled Super City may have kept the opposition to a super city high. If they made unpopular decisions, then people might blame the Govt in 2011 for them.

But having Brown and the left in charge, may mean that any backlash from unpopular decisions is likely to hit the incumbent Mayor and Councillors rather than the Government. Remember they have to put in place a single rating system that will produce significant winners and losers – and the losers can howl loudly.

National Mayor of Hamilton given the boot. Martin Gallagher top polling for council

Bob Simcock is a former National MP, but the person who beat him was supported by a few Nats also. Bob’s lack of campaigning is cited by most as why he lost. And the election of Gallagher to Council in top spot is no surprise – former MPs have massive name recognition, and you have to be exceptionally unpopular to be a former MP and not get elected to Council. I note Di Yates did manage it though.

Harry Duynhoven Mayor of New Plymouth

Harry has always been greatly popular in New Plymouth – far more so than the party he represented. His election is little surprise, and it is primarily about him. It does assist Labour to have one of their own as Mayor though, so the inclusion is not without some merit.

Laws team routed in Whanganui with a left leaning Mayor

Anyone who thinks Whanganui politics is about right/left rather than love or hate Laws obviously does not live there. A huge number on the right wanted the Laws team gone also.

Act Mayor of Hutt City given the boot

David Odgen was involved with ACT. But the guy who beat him was not someone from Labour, but Ray Wallace who if memory is correct was involved with National.

Prendergast National Mayor of Wellington ahead by 40 with 1,000 specials to count. Her Wellington supermayorlty dreams in tatters.

A big win for the left – especially the Greens. Agreed.

Tony Ryall’s bette noir Richard Thompson tops the poll for Dunedin City

Shock horror – a Labour Party activist does well in Dunedin. Next Trevor will be surprised that they drink Speights there also.

One of Wellington’s best analysts David Choat got elected to the DHB

And congrats to David. But with respect I don’t think the PM will be losing sleep over his election to the DHB.

Also former Labour Ministers also lost out in Taupo, Christchurch and Porirua so not all one way. And several of the victories in places like Dunedin were wins for “fiscal conservatives”.

As I said overall they were certainly happier tidings for the left, and they do provide some opportunities for Labour to capitalise on them. But it isn’t as dramatic as Trevor portrayed.

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31 Responses to “Trevor on local body results”

  1. BeaB (2,104 comments) says:

    It may also be a factor that many ‘left’ types are more able to spend time on local bodies while those who lean more to the right are occupied running businesses etc and cannot afford the time or be bothered with the low fees which may be attractive to others.
    Left and right have no meaning for me in local bodies although I do avoid anyone Green as I dont wnat to live in a cave munching grass.
    Trevor may rue his analysis as people care very much about local issues such as rates and may blame the ‘left’ if they are not happy.

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  2. James Stephenson (2,135 comments) says:

    A “Labour” Mayor of the Super City that didn’t even dare use Labour branding in his campaign. Way to take that as a vote in favour of your party, Trev.

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  3. adze (2,059 comments) says:

    “Harry has always been greatly popular in New Plymouth – far more so than the party he represented. His election is little surprise, and it is primarily about him. It does assist Labour to have one of their own as Mayor though, so the inclusion is not without some merit.”

    Not that Labour deserve him; he regularly kept New Plymouth from being a swing seat, yet in all the time he was in parliament he got nary a crumb from the table in Cabinet.

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  4. davidp (3,572 comments) says:

    Labour have a party machine and the unions backing them. Brown must have had some fairly serious money behind him to afford his advertising and I don’t think we’ve been told where it came from yet. The Greens have a fairly energetic activist base. On the other hand, National doesn’t stand candidates anywhere and the National proxies (such as C&R) seem to be little more than like-minding enthusiasts standing together.

    If National don’t want to concede local government to the Left then they should get serious about it, stand candidates, and do some proper fund raising. Use local government as a place to float policy ideas, try out campaign methods, and as a training ground for future MPs. Don’t make it a retirement home for failed MPs, as Auckland’s council seems to be now.

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  5. PaulL (6,015 comments) says:

    Agree davidp. I’m interested as to why National choose not to participate in local politics? Is it because, on average, local body politicians are a bunch of morons that nobody in their right mind would want to be associated with? Or some higher minded principle than that?

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  6. Redbaiter (13,197 comments) says:

    C’mon Mr. Farrar, the so called right were routed, and we might as well face up to it.

    I’ll tell you why it happened.

    They are not the right.

    They’re practically the same as the left with only a paper thin difference in policy.

    Their problem?

    Its that they do not have a foundational ideology that differs from the left, and they therefore have no uniform rationale or basis on which to argue with or confront the left on.

    They’re intent on being middle grounders, centrists, and as the election has shown, the only thing in the middle of the road is road kill.

    Now they have a period of time which they can use to get some real right wing rhetoric out there and then go forward on this when its election time again. This starts by dumping all the centrists who profess to oppose the left now, and who failed so miserably, and replacing them with people who can articulate political points of view that confront the left.

    You have to get the ideas out there.

    To defeat the socialists, we do not need people who are so limited in their political perspectives all they can think of as a way forward is to beg the left for a slice of the same old cheese.

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  7. BlairM (2,314 comments) says:

    Len Brown and his team are about to become massively unpopular – they will cause massive rates rises and attempt to spend billions on train lines (19th century technology) that nobody will use.

    If you think the Eastern Motorway was unpopular, wait until you see what Len and the Left get up to for the next three years.

    Look for Brewer to run for mayor next time, and for normality to be restored in 2013.

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  8. Pete George (23,422 comments) says:

    How many local body voters know or care if someone is left, right or whatever? Local body selections are far more judgement of the person or placement of the pin.

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  9. BlairM (2,314 comments) says:

    How many local body voters know or care if someone is left, right or whatever? Local body selections are far more judgement of the person or placement of the pin.

    Oh, most people don’t. That’s what makes it interesting. It means either side can capture the public mood on certain issues at any given election. If everybody was either left or right all the time, then the side with the most people would consistently win every election. And that would be no fun :-P

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  10. Bevan (3,965 comments) says:

    Oh who give a toss – what was the voter turn out? 20 – 25%.

    Face it, the right in NZ do not organize during mayoral/council elections like those commies in Labore. Quite frankly we are too complacent and think there are far better things to do, like mow the lawn, clip our toe nails. Come a general election, and typically more of us will vote – but all those ballot papers were good for was starting the fire.

    Rest assured though, that when Lenny Brown starts butt fucking the city with rates rises for pet projects in Manukau, the right will make sure they vote next time, then its Super-Mayor Paul Henry FTMFW!

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  11. Pascal (2,015 comments) says:

    Completely irrelevant, but I found it amusing. The only billboards that managed to stay upright in Mt Albert with the recent wind storms were the City Vision ones, because they used a triangular base. All the other ones with only two legs were blown over.

    Not that it was going to tempt me to vote for them, because I disliked their propogandist policies and disruptivively loud and intrusive campaigning.(Seriously, driving through a neighbourhood on a lazy Sunday afternoon with a megaphone? Fuck off)

    But I did find it amusing that the left leaning ticket were the only ones capable of putting up a billboard that could survive the weather.

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  12. kowtow (8,138 comments) says:

    I would have thought the “apathy/sheeple party” was the big winner with some 50 % not even bothered,how shameful is that?

    Is Thompson a Labour Party activist? He ran on the Greater Dunedin ticket. Is it time for openness and honesty in local politics too? Is this why 50 % can’t be bothered,we don’t really know who we are getting?

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  13. backster (2,139 comments) says:

    DAVIDP………Brown must have had some fairly serious money behind him to afford his advertising and I don’t think we’ve been told where it came from yet.

    He probably put it on his council card.

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  14. adze (2,059 comments) says:

    “Dinner with the Mayor at Volare” raffle? :P

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  15. Tom Gould (141 comments) says:

    DPF, however Hide and Key pushed the new rating system off until 2012 to give their boy Banksie and themselves cover and distance from the election next year. Same goes for Brown, I would have thought. I note that Tory George Woods is blathering today about wanting the new system sorted by Christmas this year, loyal foot soldier that he is. But far too transparent to stand a hope of getting traction on that little scam.

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  16. John Gibson (295 comments) says:

    Redbaiter – so when is the Crusader Rabbit party going to leave the burrow and enter the political fray ?

    Looking at your site you could push all the right wing hot buttons: global warming, taxation, education, immigration, gay marriage and education. Time to stop being an armchair expert – throwing clods of earth at the players from the sideline.

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  17. bhudson (4,736 comments) says:

    Only 50% voter response for a decision as important as this – first up Super City mayoralty??? Pretty pathetic when you consider it. Auckland certainly did get the result it deserved if that is the state of the ‘turnout’ (irrespective of which way it had gone.)

    Has anyone looked at the stats to find indicators as to where the ‘non-turnout’ vote may have laid? Was it likely to be more right favoured or more left? There was a great deal of commentary as to how Brown & his team moblised the South Auckland vote (even without Singh’s help.) Was this loss – 60,000 votes – as simple as Banks & team failing to mobilse more voters (as voters who didn’t voter were right voters)? [perhaps coupled with the 3rd place getter, who would certianly have grabbed more votes off banks than Brown.]

    For clarification on that question – If the ‘non-voters’ were principally left then Banks mobilising voters generally would not have helped, whereas if they were mostly right-leaning, then simply mobilising a greater turnout of any voters would have helped him

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  18. tankyman (120 comments) says:

    While Mallard is clapping his lands at the labour mayor (who didnt campaign as a labour person) – hes very quite about a person who DID campaign under a labour ‘tick’ and is facing some jail time.

    Just like philip field – pretending it didnt happen.

    He is a gutless worm.

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  19. m@tt (630 comments) says:

    “Now they have a period of time which they can use to get some real right wing rhetoric out there and then go forward on this when its election time again. This starts by dumping all the centrists who profess to oppose the left now, and who failed so miserably, and replacing them with people who can articulate political points of view that confront the left.”

    This won’t happen because the majority of this country, thankfully, would never back true right wing ideals. Face it, NZ has a left-centrist population and will do so for the foreseeable future. The best hope you have for a true right-wing government is to try and engineer low voter turn outs.

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  20. lastmanstanding (1,267 comments) says:

    Lenny ( eveything goes on the Council credit card) Brown and his leftie mates will raise rates in the non favoured suburbs and hold or reduce them in the favoured suburbs.

    So those dumbarses who voted for him in the North and East and part of the Central city will wonder why their rates will increase at least at double the rate of inflation over the next 3 years.

    Cause Lenny wants to have lots of money to buy a choo choo set. Like BILLIONS of $ and you idiots have given him the mandate to do so.

    So dont start whining when you next rate bill arrives because lastmanstanding told you what would happen BEFORE the election.

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  21. unaha-closp (1,155 comments) says:

    One of Wellington’s best analysts David Choat got elected to the DHB

    By “best analyst” you mean his name starts with the letter “C”.

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  22. freedom101 (491 comments) says:

    Hutt Mayor David Ogden was never involved with ACT. I am surprised that just because Trevor says it you repeat it as true. Haven’t you learnt by now not to trust anything that Trevor says?

    One thing that is true is that the ex-Labour MP and ex-Hutt Mayor John Terris, and one of the nastiest pieces of work you would ever have the misfortune to have to deal with, has been heaved from the Hutt Mana Charitable Trust and failed to get on the Regional Council. He did make it to the DHB. You didn’t see Trevor blogging and bragging about that, even though it was true (which is perhaps why it did not make his blog).

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  23. Redbaiter (13,197 comments) says:

    “By “best analyst” you mean his name starts with the letter “C”.”

    Thank you for the smile. So sadly true.

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  24. tvb (4,313 comments) says:

    The new Porirua Mayor does not look like a leftie to me. Also none of the successful “leftie” candidates aligned themselves to Labour. Local issues predominated. Labour politicians kept themselves in the background. And in Wellington it was a Green candidate that may win. But then Labour like to think Green politicians are “theirs” for the asking. I am not so sure Green politicians see it that way.

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  25. Inventory2 (10,262 comments) says:

    Len Brown; a hush-hush dinner at an Italian restaurant; a big-money campaign with no expense spared. Hmmm; who IS financing Len Brown?

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  26. jaba (2,118 comments) says:

    members of his community gave him gold coins I2

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  27. hmmokrightitis (1,580 comments) says:

    Im a New Plymouth voter. The choices for those on the right were very limited, and Ive spoken to a number of people who – like me – would no more vote left than eat their own poop. But our choices were limited.

    John R: arrogant idiot who was going to take money from arts and libraries and put it into a car festival. Moronic.

    Horse manure: semi literate prat.

    I voted Harry (god, do I have to say that?) simply because he was the least bad option AND because a vote for anyone else was a vote for an idiot like John R or Horse Manure. Harry will be a safe unimaginative pair of hands after years of the brilliance of Mayor Pete. He will look like what he is – a pale shadow of what a good mayor should be – bounding energy in promoting the city and bringing about local change that isnt policy focussed.

    And if the left see this as a victory for ‘their way’, they are delusional.

    Maybe they are ;)

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  28. Gavfaemonty (61 comments) says:

    No-one can blame Labour leaders from talking up good news, but

    – people don’t vote on party lines at local level
    – most people don’t even vote at local level
    – by definition local issues are more about society and people are more attracted to social(ist) solutions
    – (it is widely perceived that) Len might be a face-slapping loon, but (it is widely perceived that) John Banks is a cnut (90s radio show anyone?)
    – the average thoughtful Wellingtonian isn’t a greenie, just isn’t; they’ve just had enough of Kerry
    – and so on…

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  29. Scott Hamilton (298 comments) says:

    Great to see that Bill Daly, veteran Holocaust denier and proponent of racial segregation, was routed in West Auckland, finishing last:
    http://readingthemaps.blogspot.com/2010/09/bill-daly-super-bigot-for-super-city.html

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  30. Murray (8,844 comments) says:

    If Tev thinks anything labour is a “nightmare” for Key then hes the president of freaken fantasy land.

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  31. s.russell (1,589 comments) says:

    Yes, Trevor, the people of New Zealand are rising up in a great wave to expel National from power. This is shown by Labour’s meteoric rise in the polls to 32.6% (TV3 Monday night)! National’s 53.8% was a clerical error. The decimal point got misplaced. Right, Trev?

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