Ministerial blog poll results November 2010
November 3rd, 2010 at 9:00 am by David FarrarOkay over 600 votes in a couple of days. So let’s look at the results. Not remember these are not scientific results, but they do give some idea of the sentiments of Kiwiblog readers over time.
First we have the net approval ratings. This is the % who give an above average rating less the % who give a below average rating. The results are, with previous results, below.
| Net Approval | Nov-10 | Aug-09 | May-09 | Mar-09 |
| Key | 65% | 43% | 57% | 67% |
| English | 40% | 31% | 44% | 54% |
| Brownlee | 27% | 12% | 6% | 2% |
| Power | 23% | 31% | 41% | 54% |
| Ryall | 60% | 43% | 47% | 43% |
| Smith | -23% | -15% | -8% | 27% |
| Collins | 53% | 51% | 37% | 46% |
| Tolley | 13% | 3% | 13% | 21% |
| Finlayson | 36% | 47% | 52% | 53% |
So in terms of net approval eight out of nine Ministers have a positive rating. The exception is Nick Smith, and in my opinion that is probably more a reflection of sentiment on the ETS.
Six Ministers have improved their ratings since last August, and three have dipped. Those three are Power, Smith and Finlayson. There is perhaps a common theme of some discontent with certain policies coming through.
The nine Ministers in order of net approval are Key, Ryall, Collins, English, Finlayson, Brownlee, Power, Tolley and Smith. Note these are the blog poll ratings – not my personal views.
The PM has had a big lift in approval from last year – perhaps a combination of the Earthquake and the Hobbit movies. he has reclaimed the top spot.
English seems to have recovered from the housing issues of 2009 also, and has a solid +40% ratings
Gerry Brownlee would probably get the prize for most improved – from a +2% in Mar 2009 to +27% today.
Simon Power has gone the other way – he was 2nd highest in March 2009 and is in 7th place now. Perhaps the talk of regulating the Internet has not helped.
Ryall and Collins basically continue to have excellent ratings – Ryall especially has had a big jump up.
Nick Smith remains at No 9. Again, I think this is partly because of his portfolios.
Anne Tolley gains 10% from last year and seems to be gaining some fans for her refusal to be cowed by the unions.
Chris Finlayson retains a solid rating but has dropped a fair bit – no doubt linked to the Foreshore & Seabed issues.
Now let’s look at what I call the weighted average. This is where you assign a weight of 100% for very good, 75% for good, 50% for average, 25% for poor and 0% for very poor. This calculation captures the intensity of approval and disapproval, and anything over 50% signifies an above average rating.
| Weighted Average | Nov-10 | Aug-09 | May-09 | Mar-09 |
| Key | 79% | 68% | 76% | 80% |
| English | 63% | 60% | 66% | 70% |
| Brownlee | 57% | 53% | 50% | 49% |
| Power | 58% | 61% | 66% | 71% |
| Ryall | 76% | 67% | 70% | 66% |
| Smith | 39% | 43% | 44% | 58% |
| Collins | 73% | 73% | 66% | 70% |
| Tolley | 53% | 49% | 53% | 57% |
| Finlayson | 64% | 68% | 71% | 71% |
Three Ministers are in the 70s – Key, Ryall and Collins. In the 60s we have Finlayson and English. The 59s have Power, Brownlee and Tolley and Nick Smith at under 50%.
So overall sentiment about most Ministers is up from 14 months ago – close to the what it was in the first half of 2009.
I’ll try and remember to do another of these in the 1st half of 2011.
Related posts:
- August 2009 Cabinet Front Bench Blog Poll Results
- May 2009 Cabinet Front Bench Blog Poll Results
- March 2009 Cabinet Front Bench Blog Poll Results
- Audrey’s Report Card
November 3rd, 2010 at 9:10 am
Interesting.
May reflect the ‘votabilty’, but I’d say that Smith – in a purely objective sense – has done a much better job with his portfolio’s than English, Brownlee and possibly Key (re; Tourism, not as PM).
Vote:November 3rd, 2010 at 9:13 am
Nick smith is very smart but has atrocious presentation skills. Tony ryall has lifted his game in this area and has become a very skilled politician, possibly our best Health Minister for a very long time. But having the top people especially the prime minister so in command is very good for the government. All ministers when speaking of policy mention the support of the PM as being important. I heard the housing Heatley make specific r eference to the PM when announcing housing policy. I note the defense review has the PM on it
Vote:November 3rd, 2010 at 9:20 am
Nick Smiths poor rating is down to the fact he is a tree hugging pinko.
Vote:November 3rd, 2010 at 9:48 am
ETS and Foreshore!
Watch out National there’s a message from thinking NewZealanders in this.
Ignore it at your peril.
Vote:November 3rd, 2010 at 9:59 am
The figures do no lie and only reflect a profound mistrust of Smith and his botched new tax, the ETS.
Finlayson and Power must take responsibility for their weak performances on the seabed/foreshore and alcohol issues. Both have been proven to be weak as piss (pun intended).
Vote:November 3rd, 2010 at 10:10 am
I’ve met Smith a couple of times and although I’m sure that over time I’ll recover I’m also sure that his rating reflects far more than just his portfolios.
Vote:November 3rd, 2010 at 10:18 am
While I don’t agree with Nicks environmental stance, to be fair he has been a good constituency MP,gets involved in local issues as appropriate and has been popular as a result in Nelson. That’s my experience of the man.
Vote:November 3rd, 2010 at 11:27 am
What is interesting is that so many of National’s Cabinet rate below 50% approval rating from a rating grouping that is predominantly populated by punters who seem some distance right of the Tea Party group in the US
It would be interesting to conduct the same poll in the wider community. Interestingly I expect Key would probably be close to where he sits in this poll or not far behind it. I would expect an improvement for Nick Smith and I would expect a dip for Brownlee and a significant fall for Tolley.
It is all very subjective of course.
Vote:November 3rd, 2010 at 11:53 am
Mark @1127 gives grounds for thought. How right or left or where ever are KBs readers,not just the posters?
DPF ,could you design a poll on that?
Vote:November 3rd, 2010 at 1:01 pm
A close friend of mine went to hear Nick Smith talk before the last election. He gave a presentation of their blue-green policy. He said he had to leave early or he was tempted to knock his block off. He said that he can not bring himself to vote for National. Nick Smith should be in the green party. The “ETS” and the “foreshore and seabed” policies are the ones that will trip up National if they don’t listen.
Vote:November 3rd, 2010 at 1:59 pm
Not suprised about Finlayson. That guy is a complete dick. Glad to see the public is starting to see this flaming queen for what he is. He is destroying New Zealand by creating a monster, repeal of the foreshore and seabed. He’s a liar and hopefully John Key will stop this , but I doubt it.
Vote:November 3rd, 2010 at 2:22 pm
Re Nick Smith. The ETS policy he fronts has the collective support of Cabinet and caucus. John Key and co are well aware that the policy is not popular with a significant of National Members. They however consider it a necessary policy in the big order of things.
It seems to me that Nick deliberately promotes himself as the ‘fall guy’ or ‘lightning rod’ for those who oppose the ETS policy. He has broad enough shoulders to take it – it does not do him any harm in his electorate. For this, he deserves full commendation. A person made of lesser stuff in Nick’s position would be feeling unjustly hurt and victimised.
Vote:November 3rd, 2010 at 3:09 pm
What is it about the NZ people that the majority of us want a dictator? Muldoon, Clark, now King Gerry the First. If you show you’re “strong” (i.e. unaccountable and prepared to abuse power) people go all gooey and admire you for it.
I don’t know why we bother with elections… if a politician had the chutzpah to declare him or herself Emperor for Life I suspect most of the country couldn’t be bothered getting up off the couch to join in the uprising.
Vote:November 4th, 2010 at 11:21 pm
THIS IS REALLY SCARY. U CanT StoP ReAdIng Dis or you will die tonight
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