The importance of Epsom


Forecast party vote shares are: National 44.5% (down from 45.0% last week), Labour 35.4% (down from 36.6% last week), Greens 8.2% (down from 8.3% last week), New Zealand First 4.2% (down from 4.5% last week), Maori Party 2.8% (down from 3.1% last week), Act 2.8% (up from 2.4% last week) and UnitedFuture 0.3% (steady).

The probability of Act Leader Rodney Hide winning for his party continues to rise.  The market now indicates he has a 60% probability of retaining the seat for Act, up from 55% last week and 52% the week before.

Based on this data, the market is now forecasting the following Parliament: National 57 MPs, Labour 45 MPs, Greens 10 MPs, Maori Party 5 MPs and Act 4 MPs.  There would be 121 MPs, requiring a government to have the support of 61 MPs on confidence and supply.

What this shows is that if Rodney holds Epsom, a centre-right Government is forecast.

If Rodney does not win Epsom, then the Maori Party is expected to hold the balance of power.

Food for thought.

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