The weekly iPredict update is out. they find:
This week’s snapshot from New Zealand’s prediction market, iPredict, suggests the National and Green parties both gained from their leaders’ “state of the nation” speeches last week, while the Labour Party went backwards. National’s forecast share of the party vote has risen to 45.9% (from 45.6% last week), the Greens are up to 8.0% (from 7.5% last week) while Labour is down to 30.5% (from 32.0% last week). John Key would be able to continue as Prime Minister with the support of one of the Act, UnitedFuture or the Maori Party.
Interesting that no one has been willing to put money on National getting a lower vote share despite the assets part-sale announcement.
At the time the snapshot was taken, the probability of a new left-wing party around at least two of former Alliance President and current Unite National Secretary Matt McCarten, former Green MP Sue Bradford and current Maori Party Mr Harawira was 37%, up from 28% last week.
And I suspect wull rise further after Waitangi Day.Tags: iPredict