Quote of the Day
Chris Hipkins at Red Alert is having a little whine because the Fairfax gallery stated the obvious and said they beleive John Key will be Prime Minuister after the election.
I think shoot the messenger syndrone is starting early.
But the best part of the post, was this comment from Danyl Mc:
The Fairfax prediction is pretty safe. When the nation is offered a choice between a National government run by the very popular John Key, or a Labour-Greens-New Zealand First government run by the very unpopular Phil Goff then every swing voter in the country is going to run screaming towards National.
Danyl has a fair point.
It is mathematically possible for Labour to win. But they need all of the following to occur:
- National to drop around 7%
- Labour to gain around 5%
- Greens to pledge support to Labour
- NZ First to make 5%
- Maori Party back Labour on the basis of getting an even better deal on the foreshore and seabed than National will give them
A coalition led by Phil Goff with Winston, the Greens plus a potential Harawira-dominant Maori Party. Boy, that would be fun. And as Danyl says, not exactly attractive to swinging voters.
January 4th, 2011 at 11:38 am
it’s no laughing matter .. it is possible that a Labour/Lime/NZLast coalition could be the next Govt. The next election will be a nasty one and Clark isn’t even involved (or not directly anyway).
January 4th, 2011 at 11:47 am
But if Winston was in the fold, it would take around 6 months just to form the coalition, you know, boss of this, gets this and that etc and at which point it would probably last….. maybe hmmmmm 3 months.
January 4th, 2011 at 11:51 am
Jeez, is Winston Peters still alive? I thought that lying, contemptible, power-hungry turd had long since been flushed away.
He’s political poison except to that elderly demographic he cynically targets and panders to. They’re confused and he tells them he’s their grandson. If he doesn’t get elected he’ll probably just settle for stealing their silver.
Still, to their shame, you can be sure Labour and the Greens will have absolutely no qualms about dealing with him.
January 4th, 2011 at 12:01 pm
Of course Labour supporters will vote for anyone to crawl back into power. That’s why Helen was prepared to get in bed (as it were) with Winston – and Goff, the big pussy, stepped meekly aside so Winnie could get a bauble that gave him a fat salary and lots of luxury travel and status.
Never underestimate the depths the Left will sink to.
Even allowing Goff to be photographed in the Herald in a US Army camo jacket. Shades of George W Bush? Both of them would have hidden under the bed if a real gun was likely to fire at them.
This must be the photo of the year!
January 4th, 2011 at 12:31 pm
Labour will promise to put the top tax rate up as well as for trusts, and then the shark feeding frenzy will start – who gets the money. Much calculation will be done to buy the most votes with the least amount of cash.
January 4th, 2011 at 12:39 pm
“It is mathematically possible for Labour to win. But they need all of the following to occur:…”
Well the senerio you outline is certainly one way for Labour to win. It is also mathematically possible for National to drop 20% Labour to pick it up and govern alone or with the Greens. Mathematacially the Village Bicycle could pick up support and once again hold his ankles for whoever will give him perks and media spotlight. In fact the mathematical possibilities are almost endless.
January 4th, 2011 at 12:56 pm
@tvb – I don’t think it will be a case of ‘who gets the money’ it will be a case of having to borrow less to keep the economy going.
Nationals big fail so far has been not making the hard decisions to help reduce the deficit. Key is happy to do the safe, popular things and not the hard, unpopular things, great for his popularity not so great for the long term future of the country.
January 4th, 2011 at 1:03 pm
Looking at the Obituary columns, as being rather older, I see Winston’s supporters dwindling. And I live in Tauranga the so called “Winston Home”.
When are NZ First going to pay back the taxpayers money they stole?
January 4th, 2011 at 1:03 pm
i thought winstons base would have died off enough by now to ensure he would stay under the 5% threshold.
Dime doesnt like greedy old people.
January 4th, 2011 at 1:12 pm
I think Labour could win even easier than that. If Act gets say 3% but Hide loses Epsom, it’s possible National could get 48% and still lose out to a Labour-Green-NZ First-Maori coalition.
In reality National would probably get an outright majority for that vote share.
However, I doubt Peters will get back in, and I doubt the Maori Party will back Labour (especially when it would be seen as rorting the system and putting the loser into power courtesy of an overhang). Not sure about Act’s survival though.
Most people discount the possibility that National might crack 50% or even get more than the 45% of 2008. I point out however that Labour increased its vote in 2002 after a popular first term. And the CDU-CSU government in Germany (where MMP is used) did once crack 50% and twice cracked 48%.
January 4th, 2011 at 1:19 pm
‘A coalition led by Phil Goff with Winston, the Greens plus a potential Harawira-dominant Maori Party.’
I still doubt they’d have enough hair power without Mr Dunne.
January 4th, 2011 at 1:37 pm
“If Act gets say 3% but Hide loses Epsom”
Highly unlikely. National voters in Epsom are not stupid. If ACT is polling around 3% they would definitely vote Rodney in and National would encourage it.
Some would do it just to get a National led government while others would fear even a National led government wholly dependent on the Maori Party.
January 4th, 2011 at 1:53 pm
Could almost be tempted for vote for one of these lefty nut job parties, nothing beats a good circus. Either way we will still be left with mediocrity. You can’t tell me that National needs another 3 years to find their mojo, for fucks sake it will be another 3 years with steady at the helm and don’t rock the boat, meanwhile we have sailed high and dry and will be firmly on the rocks.
January 4th, 2011 at 2:08 pm
if it comes down to the Nats needing the Maori Party (Act and Utd F gone) then we are fkd either way. They will have either the Nats or Labour/Limes by the balls and race relations will be worse than it ever has been. I sense this year to be a race based year anyway with the foreshore thing about to explode
January 4th, 2011 at 2:18 pm
Shouldn’t that say “National-ACT-Maori Party” vs “Labour-Greens-New Zealand First”?
National can’t do it alone any more than Labour can, and I’d say ACTs chances are about as good as NZ First, ie possible but marginal.
January 4th, 2011 at 3:17 pm
Dunno if I’d use the word “unpopular” for Goof since it usually implies an active dislike, and I think in most cases people don’t care/don’t know he exists. Seems slightly too strong for someone who mostly makes no impression at all. I’d say “non-popular”, if that’s a word. Either way he’s gone by lunchtime on election day.
January 4th, 2011 at 3:25 pm
Black Paul and I’d say ACTs chances are about as good as NZ First, ie possible but marginal.
I’d say Act’s chances are better than Winston First due to the more intelligent voter base. Half the NZ Firstards will forget to vote for him in the Party Vote because they can’t see “Winston” on the list. That’s why Jumderton renamed his one-man party “Jim Anderton’s Progressives”. Some devious person should registar a party called “Winston” ( in honour of Churchill, of course…) and Peters would be fucked.
January 4th, 2011 at 3:26 pm
Can you imagine Russel Norman, Metiria Turei, Winston Peters and Michael Laws all working together and agreeing to policy compromises to pass legislation? No, I can’t either.
January 4th, 2011 at 4:00 pm
@ PIA ; d’you reckon that someone needs to go and see the Chief Electoral Officer tomorrow and register a party called Winston Peters First? What a great idea!
January 4th, 2011 at 4:07 pm
In view of the age of himself and most of his supporters “Winston Peters Last” may be a better bet IV2.
January 4th, 2011 at 4:22 pm
“Chris Hipkins at Red Alert is having a little whine”…could it be a bottle that his mates stole???????
January 4th, 2011 at 4:28 pm
@Inv – genius !
January 4th, 2011 at 4:43 pm
@ Johnboy; no, keep it at Winston Peters First, because most of his elderly supporters think that the NZ First party is actually Winston First anyway.
January 4th, 2011 at 4:49 pm
Yes I see your reasoning now IV2.
Besides most of his supporters would still vote for him even if he had passed on.
January 4th, 2011 at 4:51 pm
Do remember the heady days when he was touted to be our first Maori PM?
How the (could have been) mighty have fallen.
January 4th, 2011 at 5:00 pm
Hell I have just had a depressing thought.
It might be this dumbass who makes it.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10697761
Still he looks about as Murri as my big toe.
January 4th, 2011 at 5:15 pm
From Johnboy’s link:
Mr Goff said he was also hoping increased media attention on him in election year would improve his own performance in the opinion polls.
I suspect what he’ll see is the exact opposite. He’s a smarmy, rat-like little man or at least that’s how he always comes across so the more we see of him, the better. I never watch TV news anymore anyway so I don’t care. I hope he’s on every show. Smarmy little man.
One thing that Red Alert thing repeated however was the mantra of ‘are you better off’ which Mallard mentioned just before Christmas, which means they have picked it up. Good job too, I hope the Nat’s economic performance over this time gets really picked over by Liarbore. Of course they’ll lie about it and pretend the Nat’s caused it but that’s standard Liarbore fare, but I hope the Nat’s get hauled over the coals for their do-nothing, completely fucking lousy and gutless economic performance over this last term. Fucken hell. Some of us know what the right thing to do is. We know you know it too. If you, a conservative govt doesn’t do it, then who the fuck will. And BTW, if you’d once explained why you haven’t yet done anything, that might have been OK, but instead pretending as if the GFC doesn’t exist so as not to scare the horses, doesn’t satisfy those of us who know what’s going on and you could have done that without scaring the horses but you haven’t done that either, so what the fuck are you doing?
January 4th, 2011 at 5:27 pm
reid: We haven’t had a real Conservative government here since Keith lost the election and he was a bit of a softy too!
January 4th, 2011 at 5:30 pm
Sorry stepped down for Jack!
Say no more!
January 4th, 2011 at 5:43 pm
Shane Jones – the safe pair of hands
January 4th, 2011 at 6:25 pm
I’m not sure Shane would be a safe pair of hands actually, I would suggest his right ones shakes a bit
January 4th, 2011 at 6:34 pm
http://www.parliament.nz/en-NZ/MPP/MPs/MPs/e/5/e/49MP126941-Jones-Shane.htm
“Member, Finance and Expenditure Committee ” Seriously?
January 4th, 2011 at 7:24 pm
“Born 3 September 1959, Awanui, Tai Tokerau. Iwi affiliations : Te Aupouri, Ngai Takoto. Has Welsh and Dalmation heritage”
Dalmatians are a very active, high maintainence breed.
Dalmatians have been known to have a stubborn streak.
Dalmatians normally have a big appetite and will eat whatever is put in front of them so pet owners should carefully control food intake. Their dramatic markings and intelligence have made them successful circus dogs throughout the years.
Dalmatians were historically used by brewers to guard the wagon while the driver was making deliveries.
Explains it all really.
January 4th, 2011 at 7:27 pm
Phil Goff’s not unpopular! He’s just not…..happening.
January 4th, 2011 at 7:29 pm
well educated but in politics and Maori studies .. even the fishery thing seems to be Govt paid .. I maybe wrong but yet another labour MP living on the taxpayer all their life
fuck me .. when I typed Maori above, not here, a little macron appeared .. what’s that all about?
January 4th, 2011 at 7:30 pm
shit, once I submitted, the macron disappeared
January 4th, 2011 at 7:30 pm
I need a drink
January 4th, 2011 at 7:32 pm
You must live in Kapiti jaba.
http://www.3news.co.nz/Kapiti-Coast-man-upset-by-macron/tabid/423/articleID/145487/Default.aspx
Have another drink.
January 4th, 2011 at 7:39 pm
the irony there Johnboy, is that I come from Wanganui .. having a nice Whisky thanks to my kids and Father Xmas
January 4th, 2011 at 7:42 pm
If you have one more Wisky maybe the h will disappear too.
January 4th, 2011 at 7:47 pm
Put it Away said
Jones has shown himself to be pretty adept at the Expenditure bit PIA, as have most of his Labour colleagues
January 4th, 2011 at 8:05 pm
“http://www.3news.co.nz/Kapiti-Coast-man-upset-by-macron/tabid/423/articleID/145487/Default.aspx”
When can we expect the clowns who came up with this to decide that place names of French and Germanic etc origin are to be spelled with the appropriate accent marks?
January 4th, 2011 at 8:08 pm
Member, Finance and Expenditure Committee ” Seriously?
Jones has shown himself to be pretty adept at the Expenditure bit PIA, as have most of his Labour colleagues
He seems to have a grasp of the ‘member’ bit as well.
January 4th, 2011 at 8:14 pm
“When can we expect the clowns who came up with this to decide that place names of French and Germanic etc origin are to be spelled with the appropriate accent marks?”
Peut-être qui bâtard und apologet Grumpy the Whori could tell us?
January 4th, 2011 at 8:20 pm
Pay back the money Luigi. Yes the $158,000 you owe the NZ taxpayer.
January 4th, 2011 at 8:55 pm
Or at least give us a ride in his helicopter. Helicopter, what helicopter?
January 4th, 2011 at 9:59 pm
“Can you imagine Russel Norman, Metiria Turei, Winston Peters and Michael Laws all working together and agreeing to policy compromises to pass legislation? No, I can’t either.”
You forgot Hone Harawira: He’d have to be part of the mix too along with Pita Sharples and Tariana Turia.
And they’s all settle down happily with Phil Goff and David Cunliffe and live happily ever after [cue hysterical laughter].
January 5th, 2011 at 12:28 am
@BeaB @ 12.01pm
Yeah, who the hell is advising Phil Goof on his appearance?
It was bad enough him seeing him in camo and jeans trying to look down to earth in earlier shots (makes a change from the cliche red tie & suit I suppose) but now a US Army camo jacket? WTF? What a fucking insult to the US for a pinko like Goff, i.e. anti Vietnam in his youth, anti ANZUS in the 80′s, anti NZ air combat forces in the 2000′s (that issue concerned the US) and nowadays all of a sudden, anti-Afghan stabilisation (i.e. “corrupt govt there, SAS out etc”). Afghanistan is currently the US’s primary diplomatic, military and nation building focus, and needs all the help it can get from other like minded do-good countries (like NZ) but Goof wears the US Camo jacket whilst strutting around bad mouthing giving the US support.
Is he a complete dork? Or is he harking back to his youth (when leftist activists mimicked the military and wore camo, or those West German dark blue winter military jackets)?
January 5th, 2011 at 12:37 am
Jeez, we’ve seen the wikileaks show up Helen Clark to be duplicitous in the eyes of some in the US – wonder if they think the same of Goof???
January 5th, 2011 at 8:58 am
since this is all speculation, Hide is most likely to win Epsom. If they broke away from national, they will get the conservative vote. I think this will enhance their position. That’s how National will loose 7 percent.
January 5th, 2011 at 11:00 am
The Nats could go early to capitalise on their poll ratings, you would be silly not to. The outcome would be the same as we have now, the history of coalitions is that there are rarely changes unless something dramatic happened ie; a loss.
Winstone won’t get up if there is an early call and it is unlikely that Labour will be competitive with Goff leading or Shane Jones for that matter. Act would still have to work hard to retain Epsom. The Greens look relatively stable and would be returned with about the same numbers.
January 5th, 2011 at 1:20 pm
Labour will be aiming for Labour/Greens/Maori Party I think. It’s not entirely impossible either-Labour 36%, Greens 7%, Maori Party all 7 seats and that would pretty much give them the numbers.
If New Zealand First come back and National/ACT do not have the majority on their own, I expect we will have a National/New Zealand First government. Winston Peters has always chosen the easiest coalition option (NAT/NZF over LAB/NZF/ALL, LAB/NZF/GRN/UF over NAT/NZF/MRI/UF/ACT) and there’s no reason why that would change, given the easiest option means more concessions and influence.
January 5th, 2011 at 4:26 pm
or Niggly is he still trading on the death in combat of his nephew? (This was probably the most cynical of all Labour’s posturing about Iraq.)
Perhaps it is his nephew’s jacket which he wears in respect and memory.
Or perhaps he is making a point about his true allegiance to war-mongering.
Or his secret support for Uncle Sam.
Or the peacenik’s love of military gear.
Or perhaps it was just bad taste and dorkiness.
Whatever the lame excuse, I just hope we see that photo reproduced over and over again so no-one forgets what a wally he is.